Bold predictions.

[Higgs]

Trump wins Iowa and Rubio comes in second.

[LLR]

bump

[100% pro-life no matter what]

-Donald Trump will drop out by mid-March NOPE
-Bernie Sanders will win Iowa (maybe) and New Hampshire, but then get clobbered after that Not the worst prediction in the world, as he did tie Iowa and win New Hampshire)
-Marco Rubio and Hillary Clinton will be the nominees Half-right counts for something?
-Pennsylvania, Michigan, Colorado, Iowa, and Minnesota trend (relative towards the nation as a whole) strongly to the GOP, while Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Nevada move quickly Democratic. A mixed bag- I am certainly right on Iowa, Michigan, and Virginia and wrong on Nevada, but it's hard to tell for the rest
-Maine's 2nd District will be won by Rubio If you change Rubio to "a Republican", this might be my best one
-Young voters (18-29) turn out at a lower rate than in 2012, but Rubio still receives more votes than Romney did.  Rubio even wins the 18-24 vote. Unclear.  Trump won't win any segment of the young vote, but he probably won't get clobbered by as much as Romney did.  Turnout will likely be down as well
-Marco Rubio is elected president handily and is re-elected in 2020 If interpreted as "Republicans will win", we shall see, but it won't be Marco Rubio

Really bold prediction:
-Abortion is generally illegal in the majority of the states by the end of Rubio's second term Maybe abortion will be banned under President Rubio someday?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

-Bush, Walker, and Rubio all still have a legitimate shot on the 1st of May. Well, three candidates were still in, but it wasn't any of those three
-Bernie wins Iowa. If it weren't for a few coinflips
-Trump finishes 2nd in New Hampshire, behind Jeb. That's actually pretty bullish on Trump for June of '15
-Clinton chooses Cory Booker as VP. Oh well, I was wrong
-With a fractured convention appearing imminent, a backroom deal is reached to give the nomination to Rubio.  His running mate is Walker, in a unity ticket. There was hope of a brokered convention
-The margin is, once again 332-206. Could be...


-In favor of Rubio (FL, OH, VA, PA, CO, IA, NV, MN, WI, ME 2nd District) Possible, but I doubt Trump would win Minnesota before Michigan

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Six Weeks to go set of bold predictions:

-The popular vote is closer than 2000, but Trump wins the electoral college without controversy and fairly easily.
-Kelly Ayotte wins by 10 points
-Maine is close enough that it becomes viewed as a legitimate swing state going forward
-Virginia votes comfortably for Clinton in her loss and the GOP gives up on the state
-The last race to be called is the Indiana Senate race
-Gary Johnson gets under 3% of the vote
-The polling average predicts a 2-3 point Clinton win and a 272 freiwal, but there is a major shy Trump effect

[GeorgiaModerate]

Six Weeks to go set of bold predictions:

-The popular vote is closer than 2000, but Trump wins the electoral college without controversy and fairly easily.
-Kelly Ayotte wins by 10 points
-Maine is close enough that it becomes viewed as a legitimate swing state going forward
-Virginia votes comfortably for Clinton in her loss and the GOP gives up on the state
-The last race to be called is the Indiana Senate race
-Gary Johnson gets under 3% of the vote
-The polling average predicts a 2-3 point Clinton win and a 272 freiwal, but there is a major shy Trump effect

Most of those are pretty bold, I'll give you that!  I think the Johnson one is actually quite likely, and the IN Senate one is reasonably plausible.

Here's mine: Clinton wins Obama 2012 + NC, AZ, GA, and NE-02.

[Vern]

The election will come down to CO and NC which both states aren't called on election night. Clinton loses NV, OH, IA and FL and ME-2

[MT Treasurer]

-Kelly Ayotte wins by 10 points

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RTyBLrgTfA

[Arbitrage1980]

Trump will lose the popular vote by around 1% but barely win the election. There will be statewide recounts in 2 states because the margin will be below 0.5% in both those states, and the outcome in any one of them will affect the election result. Not quite sure what those 2 states will be, but NV, WI, CO, NC, are the likeliest candidates.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Clinton will lose at least one state in the 272 freiwal, but make up for it by winning Florida and therefore the election.

Florida will be the tipping point, and will go to Clinton.

Clinton will outperform polls in Wisconsin by 5 points or more.

Trump will outperform polls in Georgia by 5 points or more.

Pennsylvania will be the last state to be called.

[Mike Thick]

The Republican nominee will not be Donald Trump.

Never thought this would be bold . I might be wrong, but isn't the point of this thread to laugh at your idiotic predictions six months later?

hahahahahahahaha

ha

ha

*cries*

[Xing]

Well, I was obviously very wrong about Bush being the nominee, we'll see about whether or not the polls have any bias. Here are three bold predictions.

-Once again, people are shocked that Nevada doesn't end up being that close. Instead of acknowledging that it might be becoming a Democratic-leaning state, people will say "but it was a toss-up, and it was still foolish of you to assume otherwise!" The second a 2020 poll shows the race within 5% in NV, it's back to a toss-up in most people's eyes, regardless of any future demographic shifts.

-At least one non-freiwal state (other than Nevada) will vote to the left of at least one freiwal state.

-No more than three Senate races will go a different direction from the presidential race, but at least four Gubernatorial races will.

[Devout Centrist]

Clinton wins by a margin within 3% of the June Pew Poll.

[elcorazon]

Clinton carries Freiwal plus NV, IA, NC, FL, OH, AZ - can't pull out SC or GA. Trump wins ME-2 and ME turns out to be the closest state in the northeast. RI is about even with NH & DE.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Texas will vote to the left of Missouri.

Michigan will be the first state to the left of the tipping point.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

The map at 07:00 EST on 11/9 will look like this:

Clinton 281
Trump 216

[mencken]

Bobby Jindal finishes in the top three in Iowa.
Rod Blum and Cresent Hardy are both re-elected.
The 2016 general election winner receives fewer votes than George W. Bush in his re-election bid.

The first one was totally wrong, I remain pretty confident in all the other predictions except possibly Hardy. I will add the following to the list:

• Hillary will have additional reason to despise the Michigan polling industry after November 8; Nevada polling on the other hand proves surprisingly accurate.
• Every Republican Senate incumbent except possibly Johnson survives; Bennet wins by <2%.

[elcorazon]

The map at 07:00 EST on 11/9 will look like this:

Clinton 281
Trump 216

So you're saying PA, NV and NC are basically recounts?

[AGA]

-Texas will vote to the left of Indiana
-Colorado will be closer than Pennsylvania
-Johnson, Castle, and McMullin combined get less than 10% in Utah
-Jill Stein gets less than 2% of the vote
-The Illinois senate race will be closer than that of Indiana
-South Carolina will be won by double digits
-The Northeast overall will swing Democratic

[Maxwell]

Clinton wins North Carolina, sealing the election, as Trump takes Ohio.

Trump doesn't get particularly close in Michigan, Nevada, or even Maine.

Clinton wins Virginia by double digits.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

The map at 07:00 EST on 11/9 will look like this:

Clinton 281
Trump 216

So you're saying PA, NV and NC are basically recounts?

They still will be too close to call as absentees and some precincts are being counted.

[mencken]

Bobby Jindal finishes in the top three in Iowa.
Rod Blum and Cresent Hardy are both re-elected.
The 2016 general election winner receives fewer votes than George W. Bush in his re-election bid.

The first one was totally wrong, I remain pretty confident in all the other predictions except possibly Hardy. I will add the following to the list:

• Hillary will have additional reason to despise the Michigan polling industry after November 8; Nevada polling on the other hand proves surprisingly accurate.
• Every Republican Senate incumbent except possibly Johnson survives; Bennet wins by <2%.

I