Bold predictions.

[Kingpoleon]

Polls have a 4-point Republican bias (due to trying to compensate for the 2014 results), and 80% of the members of this forum predict a Bush win, while Clinton actually wins by about the same margin as Obama '12. The average prediction on this site gets 6 senate races wrong: people predict that Democrats only pick up IL and WI, and lose NV. Democrats actually win IL, WI, NH, FL, PA, OH, and (due to McCain getting primaried) AZ.

How is Portman going to lose to Strickland?

As for Nevada, Heck has 49% of the vote against Masto's 35%. Even assuming the four-point bias is here already, Heck has been a much better campaigner than Masto. She's only won by depicting her opponent as more extreme than Sandoval(which was admittedly true). She wouldn't get many independent votes by pulling that against Heck.

[MisSkeptic]

Hillary Clinton will be elected president, with O'Malley or someone younger and possibly male as her running mate. Someone who's young, a family man, and could connect with male voters.

The Republican party will regroup and in my opinion future younger candidates will get noticed for future elections.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Hillary Clinton will be elected president

Is her campaign going badly enough that that's a bold prediction?

[MisSkeptic]

Hillary Clinton will be elected president

Is her campaign going badly enough that that's a bold prediction?

You tell me! I just have been having this gut feeling she will win and help bring in more women (regardless of their political affiliation) into politics. But I did see someone like O'Malley as her VP running mate because I think he could connect with male and young voters. Maybe someone else will be chosen if she does, which I believe she will, get nominated.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Joe Biden will run for the Democratic nomination.

[MisSkeptic]

Hillary Clinton will clinch the Democrat nomination; while Jeb Bush or someone very similar to his popularity will secure the Republican nomination.

Donald Trump with most likely drop out and be forgotten. However, we shouldn't underestimate him if he chooses to run as an independent candidate. 

In the general election both Hillary and the Republican nominee will have a close election, but she will still come out on top after a difficult victory. If Donald Trump runs as an independent than he'll still votes away from the Republican candidate. 

[Xing]

Polls have a 4-point Republican bias (due to trying to compensate for the 2014 results), and 80% of the members of this forum predict a Bush win, while Clinton actually wins by about the same margin as Obama '12. The average prediction on this site gets 6 senate races wrong: people predict that Democrats only pick up IL and WI, and lose NV. Democrats actually win IL, WI, NH, FL, PA, OH, and (due to McCain getting primaried) AZ.

How is Portman going to lose to Strickland?

As for Nevada, Heck has 49% of the vote against Masto's 35%. Even assuming the four-point bias is here already, Heck has been a much better campaigner than Masto. She's only won by depicting her opponent as more extreme than Sandoval(which was admittedly true). She wouldn't get many independent votes by pulling that against Heck.

There's a reason these are called bold predictions. Portman is favored, but it's unreasonable to call that race Safe R. Polls now are virtually meaningless, since neither Masto nor Heck have a lot of statewide recognition. I expect the Democratic candidate to win Nevada, so Heck will have to hope for a decent amount of crossover appeal. Unless Masto absolutely tanks, I can predict with 99.99% confidence that Heck will not win by double digits (though that's not a particularly bold prediciton, I'll admit.)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Polls have a 4-point Republican bias (due to trying to compensate for the 2014 results), and 80% of the members of this forum predict a Bush win, while Clinton actually wins by about the same margin as Obama '12. The average prediction on this site gets 6 senate races wrong: people predict that Democrats only pick up IL and WI, and lose NV. Democrats actually win IL, WI, NH, FL, PA, OH, and (due to McCain getting primaried) AZ.

How is Portman going to lose to Strickland?

As for Nevada, Heck has 49% of the vote against Masto's 35%. Even assuming the four-point bias is here already, Heck has been a much better campaigner than Masto. She's only won by depicting her opponent as more extreme than Sandoval(which was admittedly true). She wouldn't get many independent votes by pulling that against Heck.

There's a reason these are called bold predictions. Portman is favored, but it's unreasonable to call that race Safe R. Polls now are virtually meaningless, since neither Masto nor Heck have a lot of statewide recognition. I expect the Democratic candidate to win Nevada, so Heck will have to hope for a decent amount of crossover appeal. Unless Masto absolutely tanks, I can predict with 99.99% confidence that Heck will not win by double digits (though that's not a particularly bold prediciton, I'll admit.)

Larry Sabato crystal ball doesnt use formulas like Nate Silver and underrates Sestak's and Strickland's chances.

Pa and OH arent Lean GOP; Nate Silver at least give Dems hope in Pa and OH.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

The Democratic primary will be MUCH closer than most pundits and pollsters think, Sanders will either outright win Iowa and New Hampshire or come a very close second and it will cause doubts as to Clinton's strength leading Democrats to reconsider their support for her.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Bush will lose New Hampshire in the primary.

[LibertyCircuitRider]

Sanders will win New Hampshire and 5-10 more states. Hillary will win in the end but not until April or May. Hillary picks Patrick as her VP.

Carson and Santorum drop out first, but both end up with cabinet positions.

Jindal drops out in January 2016 to run for Senate.

Cruz wins Iowa followed by Walker, and Paul. Fiorina drops out. 

Paul wins New Hampshire with Walker in second, and Trump in third. Christie, Gilmore, Kasich, and Pataki drop out after New Hampshire.

Paul never breaks 15% in the primary polls, though he will consistently poll best in the general election.  He drops out after Nevada.

Cruz wins South Carolina with Graham second and Paul third. Graham drops out.

Paul wins Nevada with Walker in second and Trump third. 

Cruz sweeps the south on Super Tuesday, Huckabee wins Arkansas, Trump wins Massachusetts and Paul wins Alaska and Vermont. Walker wins Colorado, Minnesota, and Wyoming.

Perry drops out after Super Tuesday.
 
Cruz win Alabama, Kansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi and Huckabee drops out.  Paul wins Maine.

Rubio drops out after losing Florida to Bush, and is ultimately passed over for VP.  He runs for governor in 2018, and tries for President again in 2024.

Paul drops out after March 15 and endorses Cruz.

Bush drops out in early April.

Walker drops out after losing Pennsylvania.

Cruz beats Trump in the end to win the nomination on June 7.

Cruz picks Romney as his VP.

Clinton starts with a big lead but Cruz crushes her in the debates.

Cruz/Romney narrowly beats Clinton/Patrick in November.

[Likely Voter]

CNN main debate will have at least 9 of the same people as the Fox debate (all same except maybe Kasich or Christie).

[Leinad]

Walker gets a plurality of the delegates, but not a majority. Bush and Cruz also have large shares, and Trump gets 4th.

Trump tells each candidate and the RNC that he will run as a third party, funding himself with twice as much money as the GOP nominee gets, unless the brokered convention gives him the nomination.

They do.

Meanwhile, Joe Biden runs in the democratic primaries, and surges to 30% in the polls, mostly from Hillary. Bernie Sanders is able to win Iowa and New Hampshire, and he continues to win states as the faltering Clinton and resurgent Biden battle out for the non-Bernie vote. Senator Sanders runs a positive campaign compared to the other two, and many voters like that.

Sanders/Warren 330 > 208 Trump/Palin. Trump wins Virginia but loses Arizona.

[PresidentTRUMP]

2016 election will be:

Rubio / Walker vs. Biden / Castro

[tgards79]

I'll start with one...

Rand Paul in 2016 will underperform Ron Paul in 2012 (votes and delegates)

That's not bold, that's a given!  He has no traction and no natural constituency.

[Panhandle Progressive]

There is a difference between bold and ludicrous. Biden doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of being the Democratic nominee. Plain and simple. Biden had like 1% support in Iowa in early 2008 and dropped out shortly thereafter. Even Bernie would beat Biden 99/100 times. If Biden truly was going to run he would have entered the race long before now. He wouldn't wait until the end of summer to BEGIN to campaign against the juggernaut that is Hillary Clinton. It just doesn't make any sense.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

His moment was before Bernie entered in May. Now, it is lost.

[Donald Trump 2016 !]

Not all of them are necessarily "bold" predictions:


Bush fatigue sets in and his war chest doesn't save him from imploding.

Bush supporters split between Marco Rubio, Scott Walker, and John Kasich. These three become the front runners.

Reince Priebus strikes a deal with Trump which leads to Trump dropping out before Iowa.

Walker wins Iowa, Kasich wins New Hampshire.

Walker becomes nominee.

[Türkisblau]

Rand Paul 2016 will go down as one of the worst presidential campaigns in US history.

[JonathanSwift]

Biden announces on September 21st that he will not run for President. He endorses Hillary Clinton.

Gilmore is the first Republican to drop out, due to lackluster polling numbers, fundraising and debate performances.

Chafee drops out following a disastrous performance at the first Democratic debate. Webb drops out the following month and endorses Clinton.

Jindal drops out in November, endorsing Huckabee and announcing his intent to run for Governor-elect Vitter's Senate seat.

Pataki suspends his campaign in December, followed by Perry and Carson in January.

Cruz and Sanders win Iowa; Rubio, Santorum and Walker drop out.

Bush and Sanders win New Hampshire; Christie, Fiorina and Kasich drop out and endorse Bush; O'Malley drops out and endorses Clinton.

Cruz and Clinton win South Carolina; likewise in Nevada. Graham, Paul and Trump drop out and endorse Cruz.

Huckabee wins Arkansas, but nothing else, on Super Tuesday; he suspends his campaign the following day. Cruz sweeps the rest of the South, as well as Colorado and Minnesota, emerging as the frontrunner.

Bush drops out after losing his home state of Florida to Cruz by a 53-46 margin.

Sanders crosses the delegate threshold with a win in New York in April. This causes Hillary Clinton to suffer a psychotic breakdown, in which she attempts to stab Bill to death with their stolen silverware. Both Clintons are subsequently arrested, tried, and given the federal death penalty after Hillary confesses to the murder of Vince Foster and other crimes.

Ted Cruz rallies the millions of conservatives who stayed home in 2012, and wins a 47-state landslide against Sanders. Sanders wins D.C., Hawaii, Massachusetts, and Vermont.

[Crumpets]

Chafee drops out following a disastrous performance at the first Democratic debate.

Just curious, what would a disastrous performance look like for Chafee? Does he call Hillary the c-word? Declare sodomy an abomination and declare his support for NSA cameras in every bedroom? Reveal he is behind the recent arsons of black churches?

[JonathanSwift]

Chafee drops out following a disastrous performance at the first Democratic debate.

Just curious, what would a disastrous performance look like for Chafee? Does he call Hillary the c-word? Declare sodomy an abomination and declare his support for NSA cameras in every bedroom? Reveal he is behind the recent arsons of black churches?

All of the above.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

The 2020 presidential election will be a landslide. I'm not sure if it will be a big landslide for the Reps or Dems, incumbent or non-incumbent, but I think it will be a landslide on the level of 1980. (Winner gets over 450 EVs and wins by at least 10% in the popular vote)

[Bigby]

Donald Trump drops out and declares that he will abstain from a third party run after his toupee falls off of his head during a live debate.

[Donald Trump 2016 !]

Donald Trump drops out and declares that he will abstain from a third party run after his toupee falls off of his head during a live debate.

Trump's hair, if not real, is at least a hair transplant. Check out this video (shocked me as well): https://youtu.be/fxDAyUiXphg?t=48