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Author Topic: Bold predictions.  (Read 19380 times)
100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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Posts: 11,726


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« on: June 29, 2015, 06:41:19 PM »

-Bush, Walker, and Rubio all still have a legitimate shot on the 1st of May.
-Bernie wins Iowa.
-Trump finishes 2nd in New Hampshire, behind Jeb.
-Clinton chooses Cory Booker as VP.
-With a fractured convention appearing imminent, a backroom deal is reached to give the nomination to Rubio.  His running mate is Walker, in a unity ticket.
-The margin is, once again 332-206.


-In favor of Rubio (FL, OH, VA, PA, CO, IA, NV, MN, WI, ME 2nd District)
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,726


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« Reply #1 on: September 06, 2015, 04:27:25 PM »

GOP wins all Midwestern states minus Illinois, which is startlingly close, but does not win Nevada, New Mexico, or New Hampshire.
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,726


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« Reply #2 on: September 29, 2015, 11:06:08 AM »

At least one state in that recent poll will be won by the GOP nominee (i.e. Oregon, Maine, New Jersey, Washington, or Illinois)
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,726


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« Reply #3 on: January 27, 2016, 11:51:29 PM »
« Edited: September 27, 2016, 06:37:13 PM by ExtremeRepublican »

-Donald Trump will drop out by mid-March NOPE
-Bernie Sanders will win Iowa (maybe) and New Hampshire, but then get clobbered after that Not the worst prediction in the world, as he did tie Iowa and win New Hampshire)
-Marco Rubio and Hillary Clinton will be the nominees Half-right counts for something?
-Pennsylvania, Michigan, Colorado, Iowa, and Minnesota trend (relative towards the nation as a whole) strongly to the GOP, while Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Nevada move quickly Democratic. A mixed bag- I am certainly right on Iowa, Michigan, and Virginia and wrong on Nevada, but it's hard to tell for the rest
-Maine's 2nd District will be won by Rubio If you change Rubio to "a Republican", this might be my best one
-Young voters (18-29) turn out at a lower rate than in 2012, but Rubio still receives more votes than Romney did.  Rubio even wins the 18-24 vote. Unclear.  Trump won't win any segment of the young vote, but he probably won't get clobbered by as much as Romney did.  Turnout will likely be down as well
-Marco Rubio is elected president handily and is re-elected in 2020 If interpreted as "Republicans will win", we shall see, but it won't be Marco Rubio

Really bold prediction:
-Abortion is generally illegal in the majority of the states by the end of Rubio's second term Maybe abortion will be banned under President Rubio someday?
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,726


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« Reply #4 on: September 27, 2016, 06:37:38 PM »

-Donald Trump will drop out by mid-March NOPE
-Bernie Sanders will win Iowa (maybe) and New Hampshire, but then get clobbered after that Not the worst prediction in the world, as he did tie Iowa and win New Hampshire)
-Marco Rubio and Hillary Clinton will be the nominees Half-right counts for something?
-Pennsylvania, Michigan, Colorado, Iowa, and Minnesota trend (relative towards the nation as a whole) strongly to the GOP, while Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Nevada move quickly Democratic. A mixed bag- I am certainly right on Iowa, Michigan, and Virginia and wrong on Nevada, but it's hard to tell for the rest
-Maine's 2nd District will be won by Rubio If you change Rubio to "a Republican", this might be my best one
-Young voters (18-29) turn out at a lower rate than in 2012, but Rubio still receives more votes than Romney did.  Rubio even wins the 18-24 vote. Unclear.  Trump won't win any segment of the young vote, but he probably won't get clobbered by as much as Romney did.  Turnout will likely be down as well
-Marco Rubio is elected president handily and is re-elected in 2020 If interpreted as "Republicans will win", we shall see, but it won't be Marco Rubio

Really bold prediction:
-Abortion is generally illegal in the majority of the states by the end of Rubio's second term Maybe abortion will be banned under President Rubio someday?

Logged
100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,726


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« Reply #5 on: September 27, 2016, 06:40:28 PM »

-Bush, Walker, and Rubio all still have a legitimate shot on the 1st of May. Well, three candidates were still in, but it wasn't any of those three
-Bernie wins Iowa. If it weren't for a few coinflips
-Trump finishes 2nd in New Hampshire, behind Jeb. That's actually pretty bullish on Trump for June of '15
-Clinton chooses Cory Booker as VP. Oh well, I was wrong
-With a fractured convention appearing imminent, a backroom deal is reached to give the nomination to Rubio.  His running mate is Walker, in a unity ticket. There was hope of a brokered convention
-The margin is, once again 332-206. Could be...


-In favor of Rubio (FL, OH, VA, PA, CO, IA, NV, MN, WI, ME 2nd District) Possible, but I doubt Trump would win Minnesota before Michigan
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,726


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« Reply #6 on: September 27, 2016, 06:57:57 PM »

Six Weeks to go set of bold predictions:

-The popular vote is closer than 2000, but Trump wins the electoral college without controversy and fairly easily.
-Kelly Ayotte wins by 10 points
-Maine is close enough that it becomes viewed as a legitimate swing state going forward
-Virginia votes comfortably for Clinton in her loss and the GOP gives up on the state
-The last race to be called is the Indiana Senate race
-Gary Johnson gets under 3% of the vote
-The polling average predicts a 2-3 point Clinton win and a 272 freiwal, but there is a major shy Trump effect
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