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Author Topic: Bold predictions.  (Read 19356 times)
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,721
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« on: June 29, 2015, 08:35:18 AM »
« edited: June 29, 2015, 08:39:08 AM by OC »

Trump syphone off enough support from Jeb and Bernie; in open NH, and Christie becomes Clinton's opponent.

Christie who already said he will write off Co, loses 272-266, propelling Clinton in WH.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,721
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #1 on: June 29, 2015, 02:26:57 PM »

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,721
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #2 on: July 01, 2015, 03:04:02 PM »
« Edited: July 01, 2015, 03:07:01 PM by OC »

Christie, not Jeb is GOP nominee

Clinton carries every 2012 Obama state, making it the first time the electoral map was exactly the same two elections in a row.

Clinton winning a 272 map isnt bold; especiall she can win OH and CO together.

Clinton will pick Julian Castro to secure Latino vote and win.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,721
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #3 on: July 03, 2015, 02:05:30 PM »

Jeb Bush secures the GOP presidential nomination with Scott Walker in second and Rand Paul in third

Hillary Clinton defeats Jeb by selecting Castro as running mate to secure Latino vote in FL senate and CO and NV; and Catholic vote in Pa, for 272 electors, in a very tight race
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,721
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #4 on: July 03, 2015, 02:15:27 PM »

No I stated that, but I quoted u because it will be a tight race, thats it.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,721
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #5 on: July 09, 2015, 11:45:04 AM »

Bernie Sanders wont win the nomination.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,721
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #6 on: July 09, 2015, 12:42:04 PM »
« Edited: July 09, 2015, 12:45:49 PM by OC »

When she decides to pick a VP; she will go with a progressive, not Kaine who is pro life and voted for Fast Track
Someone like Castro will make the most sense, since Dems can lock up the Senate and presidency by winning in FL and CO and NV.

Bernie Sanders have pushed her to this point
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,721
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #7 on: July 22, 2015, 02:47:43 PM »

Bold: Hickenlooper secures VP spot and Castro gets the Attney General spot. But, Hick or Castro secures a slot with Clinton team, as she narrowly holds off Jeb or Christie.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,721
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #8 on: July 25, 2015, 03:51:04 PM »
« Edited: July 25, 2015, 03:56:42 PM by OC »

Hilary isnt gonna lose, she will win 272-266 electors😍
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,721
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #9 on: August 02, 2015, 08:09:41 AM »

Polls have a 4-point Republican bias (due to trying to compensate for the 2014 results), and 80% of the members of this forum predict a Bush win, while Clinton actually wins by about the same margin as Obama '12. The average prediction on this site gets 6 senate races wrong: people predict that Democrats only pick up IL and WI, and lose NV. Democrats actually win IL, WI, NH, FL, PA, OH, and (due to McCain getting primaried) AZ.

How is Portman going to lose to Strickland?

As for Nevada, Heck has 49% of the vote against Masto's 35%. Even assuming the four-point bias is here already, Heck has been a much better campaigner than Masto. She's only won by depicting her opponent as more extreme than Sandoval(which was admittedly true). She wouldn't get many independent votes by pulling that against Heck.

There's a reason these are called bold predictions. Portman is favored, but it's unreasonable to call that race Safe R. Polls now are virtually meaningless, since neither Masto nor Heck have a lot of statewide recognition. I expect the Democratic candidate to win Nevada, so Heck will have to hope for a decent amount of crossover appeal. Unless Masto absolutely tanks, I can predict with 99.99% confidence that Heck will not win by double digits (though that's not a particularly bold prediciton, I'll admit.)

Larry Sabato crystal ball doesnt use formulas like Nate Silver and underrates Sestak's and Strickland's chances.

Pa and OH arent Lean GOP; Nate Silver at least give Dems hope in Pa and OH.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,721
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #10 on: August 05, 2015, 01:15:54 PM »

His moment was before Bernie entered in May. Now, it is lost.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,721
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #11 on: September 29, 2015, 01:58:30 PM »

Clinton has consistently lead Trump by 3-6 pts; WSJ poll shows that from yesterday.

GOP want Biden, but he isnt in scrutiny like Clinton. And he continues to trail Clinton in a three way race. Good luck to that.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,721
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #12 on: January 28, 2016, 04:51:53 AM »

Dems will have 51 senators after 2016
Dems will net lose one seat in 2018, and Kate Marshall becomes new Senator of NV
2020 Dems,after Kennedy retires & Clinton reelected will have 5-4 Majority on SCOTUS, with Kennedy & Ginnsberg leaving.  Lorretta Lynch will be on there.
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