Missouri 2016: Hillary Clinton down 3-4 points in internal polls

[HillOfANight]

http://www.missourinet.com/2015/06/24/hillary-visits-missouri-a-state-slu-professor-says-she-can-win/

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Absurd, or no? It doesn't seem like the state got more red, as much as, Obama didn't invest, and his voters didn't turn out.

McCain got 1.45m in 2008, Romney got 1.48m, just 30k more. Obama lost 200k voters in 2012.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Missouri voted 13 points to the right of the nation in 2012. Even if we disregard 2012 due to Obama conceding the state early on, we still have the fact that Missouri went from voting 5 points to the left of the nation in 92 to 7 points to the right of the nation in 08 without ever backtracking during that time period. There is no reason to believe that missouri has stopped trending republican, but it is possible that there will be something of a reversion to the mean from 2012 due to increased democratic campaigning in the state - so Missouri may vote only 9 or 10 points to the right of the nation in 2016 - but that's still republican enough that it isn't going for Clinton outside of a landslide in which she also wins every Obama 2012 state including CO, plus NC, GA, and probably AZ.

[The Other Castro]

Missouri for Democrats is like Pennsylvania for Republicans: Ever so tempting, but just out of reach.

[JonathanSwift]

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Wow, that means HillDAWG can put SC in play as well?

No Rethugligoon will beat Hilldawg in West Virginia, you right-wing hack.

[HillOfANight]

Jay Nixon the Democratic governor in 2008 by 58%. In 2012, he won again with 55%.

Clair McCaskill won 55% in 2012 to become Senator.

Democrats also hold the Attorney General and Secretary of State seats.

The state is more likely to flip before Georgia does. Georgia, with Obama at least, had a high floor floor Obama due to black voters but a low ceiling because of the inflexible white vote. Missouri electorate is more fluid and more willing to vote for Democrats.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=56a201bd-db14-4567-bba2-dffea45ee60e A lot has changed between 2008 and now, but just looking in hindsight, when SurveyUSA polled in May of 2008, they found McCain leading Obama by 48-45, while he lost to Clinton 46-48 due to Clinton being stronger with whites and women.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Obama was really close in 2008. 2012, not so much. I think that Hillary would have to work pretty hard to win in MO in 2016.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Wasn't Rick Santorum down just 3-4 points for his re-election in internal polls?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Recent polls from AR & KY show Hillary will perform poorly with the Clinton-But-Not-Obama vote, which is critical for Dems winning MO again.

[WVdemocrat]

Hillary could contest this state. You guys act like this is Pennsylvania or Michigan for Republicans.

[Angel of Death]

When looking at the margin of victory, Missouri has always been overrated as the bellwether state of the nation; it pretty much got lucky picking the overall winner so many times.

[RRProgressive]

Missouri is Lean Clinton. All you non-Missourians know nothing.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

When looking at the margin of victory, Missouri has always been overrated as the bellwether state of the nation; it pretty much got lucky picking the overall winner so many times.

Missouri was genuinely competitive during all of the non-landslides of 1960-2004. Now, after two misses in the same direction, and a consistent 20 year republican trend, it has been pretty much accepted now that Missouri's days of being a bellwether are over. If Hillary Clinton wins MO, it will be because she has absolutely crushed the republican nominee.

[Suburbia]

I told you that Missouri will be a swing state again. Missouri will decide this election.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I told you that Missouri will be a swing state again. Missouri will decide this election.

I can personally guarantee that Missouri will not decide the election.

[pbrower2a]

Basically, the Republican nominee has to collapse for Missouri to be in play for the Democratic nominee.

Sure, Obama conceded Missouri early so that the Democratic Senator could be re-elected... Missouri going for Hillary Clinton implies that she has a near-landslide.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Basically, the Republican nominee has to collapse for Missouri to be in play for the Democratic nominee.

Sure, Obama conceded Missouri early so that the Democratic Senator could be re-elected... Missouri going for Hillary Clinton implies that she has a near-landslide.

Akin's "legitimate rape" gaffe was in August - Obama conceded Missouri before that. Before that gaffe, McCaskill appeared doomed.

[Ebsy]

Presidential campaigns can only spend so much money in Ohio and Florida.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Presidential campaigns can only spend so much money in Ohio and Florida.

Obama spent essentially nothing in Missouri. Hillary Clinton will do the same if she has any intelligence at all.

[ElectionsGuy]

Missouri for Democrats is like Pennsylvania for Republicans: Ever so tempting, but just out of reach.

I would go even further, its like Oregon or Washington for Republicans.

This professor is out of her mind if she actually thinks its going to be a bellwether. It hasn't been a bellwether since the 90's.

[CountryClassSF]

This professor is out of her mind if she actually thinks its going to be a bellwether.

I say we let her think that. It may be a bellwether, just not for who she thinks.

[WVdemocrat]

Hillary could contest this state. You guys act like this is Pennsylvania or Michigan for Republicans.

What's the difference?

Hillary can actually win here. Republican nominees have been trying for ages to win Pennsylvania and Michigan. Hasn't happened since their last landslide victory. Missouri, on the other hand, has been won by Democratic nominees in non-landslides, and nearly went for Obama in 2008. It was competitive in 2000 and 2004 as well. In my lifetime, Pennsylvania has never been competitive, despite the GOP thinking it is.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Hillary could contest this state. You guys act like this is Pennsylvania or Michigan for Republicans.

What's the difference?

Hillary can actually win here. Republican nominees have been trying for ages to win Pennsylvania and Michigan. Hasn't happened since their last landslide victory. Missouri, on the other hand, has been won by Democratic nominees in non-landslides, and nearly went for Obama in 2008. It was competitive in 2000 and 2004 as well. In my lifetime, Pennsylvania has never been competitive, despite the GOP thinking it is.

Pennsylvania was closer than Missouri in 2004.

[ElectionsGuy]

Hillary could contest this state. You guys act like this is Pennsylvania or Michigan for Republicans.

What's the difference?

Hillary can actually win here. Republican nominees have been trying for ages to win Pennsylvania and Michigan. Hasn't happened since their last landslide victory. Missouri, on the other hand, has been won by Democratic nominees in non-landslides, and nearly went for Obama in 2008. It was competitive in 2000 and 2004 as well. In my lifetime, Pennsylvania has never been competitive, despite the GOP thinking it is.

2012: Missouri - 9.4 R margin, Pennsylvania - 5.4 D margin, National - 3.9 D margin
2008: Missouri - 0.1 R margin, Pennsylvania - 10.3 D margin, National - 7.2 D margin
2004: Missouri - 7.2 R margin, Pennsylvania - 2.5 D margin, National - 2.4 R margin
2000: Missouri - 3.3 R margin, Pennsylvania - 4.2 D margin, National - 0.5 D margin

So what a minute, Pennsylvania has 'never been competitive', but Missouri was competitive even in 2000 and 2004? Are you blind to the actual results here, or are you just a Democratic hack? Not to mention Missouri's Republican trend.

[Likely Voter]

one thing that is interesting is that Team Clinton is running polls in MO, which isn't even an early primary state. How many other campaigns are looking at expand the map general election polling at this point? Maybe Bush. Hopefully Team Clinton is still focused on the job at hand - namely winning the nomination.

[pbrower2a]

Protestant fundamentalism is strong in Missouri but weak in Iowa.  Such makes the difference between northern rural Missouri being strongly R and Iowa being feebly R -- and Democrats winning Iowa and losing Missouri in Presidential elections.

...the most likely tipping-point state in a close 2016 Presidential election is Virginia.