Will he or won't he?

[The Other Castro]

FWIW, PredictIt's odds on Biden running have jumped by 30 points within the past two days or so. I'll be a betting man and say that he will.

I've been manipulating it all day to drive the price up so I can buy cheaper No shares, probably don't read too much into it.

[Progressive]

Reasons why I think he will/won't jump in

Will
*Son's dying wish: if it really was his son's dying wish, he may jump in even if it defies the "logic" of an improbable victory
*Path to victory: he sees himself as a more stable candidate than Hillary and will eventually gain enough steam to clinch the nomination, possibly winning states in the long haul
*Just in case: get in the race in case she implodes, that way he already has the infrastructure necessary
*Minority voters: might minority voters support Biden over Clinton in a state like SC?
*Experience: decades in the Senate and 8 years as VP-->he's no gadfly

Won't
*No infrastructure or funds, yet: there is no Biden team, much of the top Democrats have been soaked up by Clinton, and there are no funds yet for Biden
*No endorsements: Who would be Biden's surrogate?
*No path to victory: Can he really pull off a win in the early states? If not, can he really gain steam in other states?
*Bernie factor: Would his entry allow someone like Bernie to win a state?

[Progressive]

A lot of buzz saying he will

[The Other Castro]

A lot of buzz saying he will

It seems like all the buzz is stemming from this one Democratic fundraiser's comments though.

[Progressive]

A lot of buzz saying he will

It seems like all the buzz is stemming from this one Democratic fundraiser's comments though.

He will have a lot of egg on his face so to speak if Biden doesn't run, no?