Illinois 18 Special Election Thread

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The Primaries for the Special Election to fill the 18th congressional district seat in Illinois, left vacant after the resignation of Republican Congressman Aaron Schock due to allegations of improper spending of campaign funds and pending ethics investigations, will be held on July 7th. The General Election is on September 10th.

Schock won reelection 75-25 percent in 2014, Mitt Romney carried the district 61-37 percent in 2012, and the district's Cook PVI is R+11. Because of these factors, most prognosticators expect the seat to remain in republican hands.

Democratic Candidates

Adam Lopez - Member of the Springfield School Board and a representative of Country Financial

Rob Mellon - Teacher and Army Veteran. Lost the 2014 IL-18 Democratic Nomination to Farmer Darrel Miller.

Republican Candidates

Mike Flynn - Political Strategist

Darin LaHood - State Senator and Son of Former U.S. Rep. Ray LaHood (R, IL-18, '95-'09)

Donald Reints - Former Corrections Officer

My Prediction

LaHood - 64%
Flynn - 20%
Reints - 16%

Lopez - 56%
Mellon - 44%

I will withhold a GE prediction for now.

[ElectionsGuy]

Safe R

Republican - 72%
Democrat - 28%

[Maxwell]

Here's to hoping a non-LaHood republican upsets LaHood.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Flynn for the win

[SATW]

Darin LaHood has my support.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

5 hours and 20 minutes until polls close.

Results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2015/by_state/IL_Page_0707.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

http://dd.aoshq.com/results/illinois-18/ (ignore the numbers there right now, it's just test data until polls close)

[Mr. Illini]

Safe LaHood IMO

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Per AOSHQDD:

LaHood 1289, Flynn 79, Rients 17 for some early meaningless numbers.

Mellon 76, Lopez 52 for the Democrats

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

LaHood 1554, Flynn 131, Rients 28

Mellon 107, Lopez 58


Still just early vote.

[cinyc]

LaHood 1554, Flynn 131, Rients 28

Mellon 107, Lopez 58


Still just early vote.

It may just be early vote, but I think it's safe to call it for LaHood.  There's no way the election day vote is the 100% opposite of the early vote - and Flynn would just about need that to win.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

2% of the vote is in:

LaHood leading Flynn 87-11-2

Mellon leading Lopez 57-43

[RogueBeaver]

AOSHQDD calls it for LaHood.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

14% of the vote is now in:

LaHood leading Flynn 76-22-2. Flynn leading in Adams and Cass Counties, LaHood leading everywhere else.

Mellon leading Lopez 53-47

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

32% in:

LaHood leading Flynn 69-29-2

Mellon leading Lopez 60-40

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

My Prediction

Lopez - 56%
Mellon - 44%

?

Also, why do AoShHQDD and AP always show different numbers?

That was only a prediction, based on the fact that Mellon lost last year's primary.

The two sites get results by different means.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

43% in:

LaHood leading Flynn 71-27-2. Flynn will win at least 1 county, possibly 2 or 3.

This seems over on both sides, but no call yet from AP.

[cinyc]

AP finally calls the Republican race for LaHood.  He's leading 70%-28% with 56% in.

[Nyvin]

Quite obvious Lahood will have an easy win for the seat.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

76% in:

LaHood leading Flynn 69-28-3

Mellon leading Lopez 60-40

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Quite obvious Lahood will have an easy win for the seat.

Yep. The only question is if Mellon can do better than Zinn did in Mississippi last month.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

92% in:

LaHood leading Flynn 69-28-3. Flynn has won Adams County and it is still Too Close To Call in McLean County. LaHood won everywhere else.

Mellon leading Lopez 61-39.

Still no call on the democratic side from AP.

Also, the turnout on the democratic side is beyond terrible.

[cinyc]

And the AP calls the Democratic race for Mellon.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final Results:

LaHood 31,361 ; 69%
Flynn 12,560 ; 28%
Rients 1,233 ; 3%

Mellon 4,599 ; 61%
Lopez 2,999 ; 39%

-----------

The general is on September 10th.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Even without the gerrymandering, this would still be a safe Republican seat. With it, definately.

[smoltchanov]

Well, even in so hopelesslly "Safe R" district 6:1 ratio between number of people voting in Republican and Democratic primary impresses)))