2016 Republican Nomination Poll - July 2015

[Senator Cris]

Blue = officially announced candidacy.

2nd half of June results:

Jeb Bush 38.6%
Marco Rubio 17%
Scott Walker 12.5%
John Kasich 6.8%
Mike Huckabee 5.7%
Donald Trump 5.7%
Rand Paul 4.5%
Ted Cruz 3.4%
Carly Fiorina 3.4%
Ben Carson 1.1%
Jim Gilmore 1.1%

[Suburbia]

Bush, Rubio or Kasich. Keep an eye on Rand Paul.

[Penelope]

Walker has continually proven by now that he's not ready for prime time, and Christie, Jindal, Pataki, and Perry are all way past their prime. Carson and Fiorina are novelty candidates. Kasich and Graham only appeal to diminishing segments of the Republican Party primary electorate, and both of their preferred demographics (rust belt moderates, hawkish conservatives) could easily be won by an establishment candidate.

That leaves us with Bush, Cruz, Huckabee, Paul, Rubio, Santorum, and Trump. Out of that field, we have two establishment candidates (Bush, Rubio), four conservative candidates (Cruz, Huckabee, Santorum, Trump), and one libertarian (Paul).

Bush is still my best guess.

[RINO Tom]

Johnny K

[Maxwell]

Marco rubio, the closest to the GOP ideological center without being a complete moron.

[ElectionsGuy]

Rubio. At this point though, I wouldn't be surprised if someone like Kasich has a huge surge and becomes a front runner.

[The Other Castro]

I'm still sticking with Rubio, though I'm much more unsure about the whole situation now. I don't believe that any candidate has more than a 25% chance at this point.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Bush

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Jeb has moved to the front of the pack.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Wow Bush is dominating. I think the nominee is about 30% chance him, 20% each to Rubio and Cruz, 10% to Walker and Paul and everyone else squabbles in the region of 'negligible'.

[Phony Moderate]

Bush will probably get it but Walker still has a good chance due to strongish personal ratings with GOP voters and there is always a chance that an outright nutter will finally get it or that Rubio's good looks propel him to the nod.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Complete toss-up between Bush, Walker, Rubio.  I'd give them each a 30%+ shot, and the field 5%, if that.

I'll vote Rubio this time.

[Horsemask]

Oh wait, I misread the post.

I also think it's a tossup between Bush, Walker, and Rubio. Slight edge to Bush currently.

[tmthforu94]

John Kasich

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Bush.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Walker

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

I'm still going with Rubio. Bush is a paper tiger who isn't really widely liked (he has only broken 20% nationwide twice in the last three months). Rubio is also near the center and is relatively inoffensive and could attract moderate voters as well as Hispanics. Still, it's really hard to guess this far out.

[Bull Moose Base]

Walker is the candidate with the best chance of winning IA or NH. No Republican has been nominated without winning one.

[okierepublican]

I will just say this. I will be very surprised if the next president isn't from New York or Florida. Bush and Rubio are the top two in my opinion.

[Bull Moose Base]

I will just say this. I will be very surprised if the next president isn't from New York or Florida. Bush and Rubio are the top two in my opinion.

And you're leaving yourself cover if it's Trump or Pataki.

[Phony Moderate]

Rubio is also near the center and is relatively inoffensive and could attract moderate voters as well as Hispanics.

Literary no one was saying that in 2010.

[okierepublican]

I will just say this. I will be very surprised if the next president isn't from New York or Florida. Bush and Rubio are the top two in my opinion.

And you're leaving yourself cover if it's Trump or Pataki.

That would be the first time the nominees came from the same state since 1944 right?

[RR1997]

Hopefully Kasich, but probably Bush or Rubio. Voted Bush.

[Yelnoc]

Cris, any chance of getting an updated graph?

[Senator Cris]

Cris, any chance of getting an updated graph?

Yes. Tomorrow it will be out