CNN/ORC national poll: Clinton leads Bush/Christie/Rubio/Trump/Walker by >10 pts

[Mr. Morden]

CNN/ORC national poll, conducted June 26-28 (listing the RV #s here):

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/06/30/trumpbushclinton.pdf

Clinton 54%
Bush 41%

Clinton 56%
Rubio 40%

Clinton 55%
Christie 39%

Clinton 59%
Trump 35%

Clinton 57%
Walker 40%

[Vega]

That just shows you how far Christie has fallen. He's not even doing that much better than Donald Trump.

[mds32]

CNN/ORC proves their polling is bad yet again with wild swings that don't reflect what we see in other national polls or swing states.

[Mehmentum]

Wow, that's good for Clinton, even for a RV poll.

[Hydera]

My best guess: 50-60% of All Republican voters are christian evangelicals.

With gay marriage being resolved by the supreme court a lot of them will dropout of voting in 2016 since one of their top wedge issues are gone.

However instead of that huge margin i'd put a -4% for hillary and a +4% for republicans regarding those numbers due to the bradley effect(yeah i know bradley was black but centre-left candidates this year in the rest of the world have done worse than polls predicted).

[mds32]

Wow, that's good for Clinton, even for a RV poll.

That isn't even an RV poll, it is a poll of American ADULTS. When a huge chunk of the country does not vote then one must wonder how many are in this sample.

[Mehmentum]

Wow, that's good for Clinton, even for a RV poll.

That isn't even an RV poll, it is a poll of American ADULTS. When a huge chunk of the country does not vote then one must wonder how many are in this sample.

CNN/ORC national poll, conducted June 26-28 (listing the RV #s here):

[136or142]

My best guess: 50-60% of All Republican voters are christian evangelicals.

With gay marriage being resolved by the supreme court a lot of them will dropout of voting in 2016 since one of their top wedge issues are gone.

I highly doubt that.  Abortion was supposedly resolved as a political issue by the Supreme Court over 40 years ago and there is still (likely  mostly unconstitutional) legislation being passed on it seemingly weekly and it's still a big issue for many voters.

To be sure, gay marriage is no where near as complex an issue as abortion, but gay rights in general is in many ways, and this one ruling doesn't begin to settle all the issues around gay rights.

[136or142]

It will be nice when pollsters stop including Joe Biden in  their samples as they have finally done for Elizabeth Warren.

[mds32]

Wow, that's good for Clinton, even for a RV poll.

That isn't even an RV poll, it is a poll of American ADULTS. When a huge chunk of the country does not vote then one must wonder how many are in this sample.

CNN/ORC national poll, conducted June 26-28 (listing the RV #s here):

"Interviews with 1,017 adult Americans"

"The sample also includes 890 interviews among registered
voters"

Proves even more that this poll is problematic.
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/06/30/trumpbushclinton.pdf

[Gass3268]

Wow, that's good for Clinton, even for a RV poll.

That isn't even an RV poll, it is a poll of American ADULTS. When a huge chunk of the country does not vote then one must wonder how many are in this sample.

CNN/ORC national poll, conducted June 26-28 (listing the RV #s here):

"Interviews with 1,017 adult Americans"

"The sample also includes 890 interviews among registered
voters"

Proves even more that this poll is problematic.
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/06/30/trumpbushclinton.pdf

It's stupid to poll anything else this far out. People can get registered to vote between now and next year. You switch to registered voters about half way out and then likely voters a quarter of the way out.

[mds32]

Wow, that's good for Clinton, even for a RV poll.

That isn't even an RV poll, it is a poll of American ADULTS. When a huge chunk of the country does not vote then one must wonder how many are in this sample.

CNN/ORC national poll, conducted June 26-28 (listing the RV #s here):

"Interviews with 1,017 adult Americans"

"The sample also includes 890 interviews among registered
voters"

Proves even more that this poll is problematic.
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/06/30/trumpbushclinton.pdf

It's stupid to poll anything else this far out. People can get registered to vote between now and next year. You switch to registered voters about half way out and then likely voters a quarter of the way out.

Then no matter what they will probably have untrustworthy polls compared to PPP or Quinnipiac at the national level since they and the other polling companies in the national rcp average use registered voters and have completely different results compared to CNN.

[Mehmentum]

Wow, that's good for Clinton, even for a RV poll.

That isn't even an RV poll, it is a poll of American ADULTS. When a huge chunk of the country does not vote then one must wonder how many are in this sample.

CNN/ORC national poll, conducted June 26-28 (listing the RV #s here):

"Interviews with 1,017 adult Americans"

"The sample also includes 890 interviews among registered
voters"

Proves even more that this poll is problematic.
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/06/30/trumpbushclinton.pdf

I don't understand.  How does using an RV sub-sample make the poll problematic?

[Gass3268]

Wow, that's good for Clinton, even for a RV poll.

That isn't even an RV poll, it is a poll of American ADULTS. When a huge chunk of the country does not vote then one must wonder how many are in this sample.

CNN/ORC national poll, conducted June 26-28 (listing the RV #s here):

"Interviews with 1,017 adult Americans"

"The sample also includes 890 interviews among registered
voters"

Proves even more that this poll is problematic.
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/06/30/trumpbushclinton.pdf

It's stupid to poll anything else this far out. People can get registered to vote between now and next year. You switch to registered voters about half way out and then likely voters a quarter of the way out.

Then no matter what they will probably have untrustworthy polls compared to PPP or Quinnipiac at the national level since they and the other polling companies in the national rcp average use registered voters and have completely different results compared to CNN.

They have a RV sub-sample in the poll that RCP will use for their averages. Then again the numbers are only a percent or two different between adults and registered voters.

[Tender Branson]

CNN/ORC polls are not trustworthy, at least at this stage.

Last month, they relased a poll showing Hilldog with a 15-25% lead and now it's almost the same, but state polls from all other pollsters are not backing up such leads.

I don't know what they are polling right now, but certainly not the US ...

[Mr. Morden]

I don't know what they are polling right now, but certainly not the US ...

Maybe Austria….

[EliteLX]

lol absolute garbage poll.

Yet again a way out-field outlier poll. Didn't they have Hillary with like 20+ leads or something last time? What a joke. CNN's polling is looking not even close to every other reputable polling company. I would lay down a fresh Benjamin on a bet that Hillarys lead looks nothing even CLOSE to 13+ points vs a Jeb Bush in 2016. Not even remotely close.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Glorious news!!

[Likely Voter]

It is hard to buy those numbers. Looking at the internals the RV and AA numbers are almost the same and in some cases exactly the same. That shouldn't be the case, especially this early.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Walker, Jeb or Christie are gonna be nominees. Rubio might as well run for gov.