Can Bush survive losing both IA and NH to different candidates?

[retromike22]

I was thinking about possible analogies to Bush 2016, and I started thinking about Romney 2008, when he came in second in IA and NH.

Lets say Walker wins IA, and Rubio or Paul (or even Christie lol) wins NH.

Can Bush survive?

[Blair]

well the size and caliber of the field helps him.

I expect, that much like 2008 and 2016 Florida will be a complete last stand for either Bush or Rubio.

[Mehmentum]

The only way he'd still be viable after loosing both states is if the both of the winners are unacceptable to the establishment.

If Carson wins Iowa and Trump wins New Hampshire, then you would have people flocking to prop up Bush up.

[eric82oslo]

Bush and Rand Paul are probably the only candidates who can "lose" 8as in not win) both states without losing much momentum. At this stage, it looks almost like a foregone conclusion that Walker will win Iowa, yet much can happen during the upcoming months.

[Maxwell]

Bush and Rand Paul are probably the only candidates who can "lose" 8as in not win) both states without losing much momentum. At this stage, it looks almost like a foregone conclusion that Walker will win Iowa, yet much can happen during the upcoming months.

Almost the opposite is true for Rand Paul - if he doesn't win either Iowa or New Hampshire, he's done.

[Yelnoc]

well the size and caliber of the field helps him.

I expect, that much like 2008 and 2016 Florida will be a complete last stand for either Bush or Rubio.

Florida will be after Super Tuesday.

Yes, Jeb can survive two early losses, but he would have to turn it around in South Carolina.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If it's Carson and Trump, yes.

[eric82oslo]

Bush and Rand Paul are probably the only candidates who can "lose" 8as in not win) both states without losing much momentum. At this stage, it looks almost like a foregone conclusion that Walker will win Iowa, yet much can happen during the upcoming months.

Almost the opposite is true for Rand Paul - if he doesn't win either Iowa or New Hampshire, he's done.

He's son of his father, with one big distinction, he's much more palatable (despite his extreme tax policies). So he definitely won't be done so easily I think. If you think of actually winning the nomination, you might be right, but I think Rand will keep on going nevertheless and probably be just as popular among the electorate as before Iowa. I think he'll do better than his father, yet probably "only" finish 2nd or 3rd in the end.

[Likely Voter]

In the modern era, no GOP candidate has ever won the nomination without winning either IA or NH so precedent would say no, but I voted yes because this season is so different with the number of candidates and the power of Super PACs and unlimited money.  However if he doesn't win either IA or NH, he better have been close in one or both and he would have to win SC or I think it is over for him. The only way he survives going 0-3 is if the winners of IA, NH and SC were all unacceptable to the mainstream.

[Blair]

well the size and caliber of the field helps him.

I expect, that much like 2008 and 2016 Florida will be a complete last stand for either Bush or Rubio.

Florida will be after Super Tuesday.

Yes, Jeb can survive two early losses, but he would have to turn it around in South Carolina.

damn calendar changes-I'll learn them when President Forever updates

[Bull Moose Base]

Bush isn't going to win South Carolina after losing IA and NH, but he (or Rubio) could possibly, unlike Giuliani, win Florida despite not winning any previous states.

No Republican has ever been nominated without winning IA or NH. But Bush, Rubio or even Romney all  have a chance to do so if the establishment hates the early winners.

[Yelnoc]

Bush isn't going to win South Carolina after losing IA and NH, but he (or Rubio) could possibly, unlike Giuliani, win Florida despite not winning any previous states.

No. Noooo.

Feb 1: Iowa caucuses
Feb 9: New Hampshire
Feb 20: South Carolina
Feb 23: Nevada caucuses
Mar 1: Super Tuesday (Alabama, Minnesota caucuses, Texas, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho caucuses, Massachusetts, North Carolina, North Dakota caucuses, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Virginia, Vermont)
Mar 5: Kansas caucuses, Louisiana, Washington caucuses
Mar 8: Hawaii caucuses, Michigan, Mississippi
Mar 15: Ohio, Florida, Illinois

There's no way either of those candidates fail continually for six weeks and then magically win Florida. The home state advantage is nowhere near that strong in the modern era.

[Horsemask]

I think it depends a lot on how big the field is by the time the primaries start. I just don't see all 16 or so candidates (including Kasich and Walker when they announce) as surviving. I'm sure there'll be people out of the race by the end of 2015.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Bush and Rand Paul are probably the only candidates who can "lose" 8as in not win) both states without losing much momentum. At this stage, it looks almost like a foregone conclusion that Walker will win Iowa, yet much can happen during the upcoming months.

Rubio is poorly suited to win either state. I think he can survive both with ease as long as different candidates win them. The worst-case scenario for him is that Bush wins both and basically seals the deal early, but I find that unlikely.

[Maxwell]

Bush could win just South Carolina and then go onto the nomination, so yes.

[Mr. Morden]

Bush isn't going to win South Carolina after losing IA and NH, but he (or Rubio) could possibly, unlike Giuliani, win Florida despite not winning any previous states.

You do realize that the Florida primary will be March 15th, and more than 20 states will hold primaries or caucuses before that?  Why would either Bush or Rubio stay in the race after losing more than 20 states in a row?

Maybe I shouldn't be surprised that you said this, though, since this is what expects to read on this forum, where no one is paying much attention to the election. 

[andrew_c]

Depends.  If both winners are establishment candidates, Bush is toast.  Otherwise, he would still be in the running as long as he wins South Carolina.