2018 Michigan Senate (PPP) - Stabenow has large leads despite lukewarm approval

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Stabenow (D) - 47%
Amash (R) - 34%

Stabenow (D) - 47%
Calley (R) - 34%

Stabenow (D) - 45%
Johnson (R) - 37%

Republican Primary:

Calley - 13%
Amash - 12%
Bishop - 10%
Johnson - 10%
McDaniel - 6%

Stabenow Approval:

Approve: 42%
Disapprove: 39%

Sen. Peters (D) Approval:

Disapprove: 32%
Approve: 30%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_MI_7115.pdf

[Senator Cris]

No Snyder in the poll?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

No Snyder in the poll?

His approval is 40-47, but they didn't put him in a senate matchup.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I'd love to see Land go for it again.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'd love to see Land go for it again.

She'd lose by double digits again.

[PAK Man]

This is kind of the impression I've always gotten from Stabenow. Not terribly popular, but wins easily every time (except for her first term, when she defeated Spencer Abraham by only 2 points).

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I'd love to see Land go for it again.

She'd lose by double digits again.

You think so?  Most of the reason she lost so badly to Peters is because she never found her campaign message and let Peters smear her with sexist attacks.  If she runs again, she will have hopefully learned from her mistakes last time.

[free my dawg]

I'd love to see Land go for it again.

She'd lose by double digits again.

You think so?  Most of the reason she lost so badly to Peters is because she never found her campaign message and let Peters smear her with sexist attacks.  If she runs again, she will have hopefully learned from her mistakes last time.

Eh, you guys can do better anyway.

[Bojack Horseman]

I'd love to see Land go for it again.

She'd lose by double digits again.

You think so?  Most of the reason she lost so badly to Peters is because she never found her campaign message and let Peters smear her with sexist attacks.  If she runs again, she will have hopefully learned from her mistakes last time.

No, she lost because her campaign was nothing more than a hot mess with no theme at all other than, "I want to be Senator, so vote for me."

Oh, and while we're at it, name one "sexist attack." Is being bought and paid for as a puppet of the Koch brothers now sexist?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'd love to see Land go for it again.

She'd lose by double digits again.

You think so?  Most of the reason she lost so badly to Peters is because she never found her campaign message and let Peters smear her with sexist attacks.  If she runs again, she will have hopefully learned from her mistakes last time.

No, she lost because her campaign was nothing more than a hot mess with no theme at all other than, "I want to be Senator, so vote for me."

Oh, and while we're at it, name one "sexist attack." Is being bought and paid for as a puppet of the Koch brothers now sexist?

He's probably referring to the whole "War on Women" stuff, which land responded to with this joke of an ad:

http://youtu.be/dc_AAje-4l0

[ElectionsGuy]

I wouldn't be surprised if this is a surprise win for the GOP in 2018. They have a tough hill to climb though, and they need someone who's not a terrible like we've seen the last few cycles with Land and Hoekstra.

[windjammer]

That's quite doubtful. Republicans will have many pick up opportunities in 2018, so I guess they will mostly focus on that, rather than blue senate seats with incumbents that aren't particularly unpopular.

[hopper]

Reminds me of the 2014 Governor's Race when Snyder won he wasn't popular but MI voters didn't see Mark Schauer(D) as a better alternative to Snyder.

Its difficult for Republicans to win at the US Senate Level since Michigan is still a Teamster State thus MI whites vote more Dem than the country as a whole in the Detroit Suburbs. I do think "The White Teamster Vote" is big enough to kill any chances of Republicans winning at the US Senate level in MI in the near future.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems should be worried about NV, especially if Duckworth wins as expected. Females seem to be swapped out like in 2014 when 2 GOP females swapped out 2 Dem females.

But Stabenow is a special case and she has fought off every GOPer since being reelected.

Plus, midwest govs are fertile ground in 2018 as Bill Daley prepares to run.

[The Other Castro]

Dems should be worried about NV, especially if Duckworth wins as expected. Females seem to be swapped out like in 2014 when 2 GOP females swapped out 2 Dem females.

But Stabenow is a special case and she has fought off every GOPer since being reelected.

Plus, midwest govs are fertile ground in 2018 as Bill Daley prepares to run.

This isn't Highlander, we can have net gain in female Senators.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

None of females running are Debbie Wasserman-Shultz, but Heck is running a better campaign than CCM right now. But that can change.

[dmmidmi]

This is kind of the impression I've always gotten from Stabenow. Not terribly popular, but wins easily every time (except for her first term, when she defeated Spencer Abraham by only 2 points).

You could replace "Stabenow" with "Levin," and you would also be correct. I'd be beside myself if the same doesn't hold true for Gary Peters going forward.

[Free Bird]

I get the impression that Stabenow's been around long enough to be considered a bacon bringer, so she's simply put up with. She's certainly closer to her state's interests than Levin was, but both were and are kept around for the same reason.

[Republican Michigander]

Stabenow's beatable, but has to be beaten. She doesn't defeat herself with self-inflicted errors and can be a good campaigner when she has to be. I say this as someone who has very little respect for her as a senator (although I respect her as a campaigner).

As of now, I can agree with the poll, but like I said about other polls. August polls are worthless (esp for 2018).

2000 - Spence Abraham left an opening and Stabenow took advantage of it.

2006 - Wave year, Bouchard's team ran generic campaign. He wanted to be governor, not senator and was talked into running. It showed.

2012 - Pete Hoekstra......probably the worst senate campaign I've ever seen.

2018 - Gubernatorial year (advantage GOP). Open gubernatorial seat (advantage remains to be seen - dems have a weak bench - but Mark Hackel would be a strong candidate for governor. GOP has Bill Schuette likely running for governor.)

The one critical thing is that the GOP candidate can not be outworked if he/she wants to win. The candidate can not go into a shell. The candidate can't be over consulted. The candidate can not run stupid TV ads that remind me of Full Metal Jacket like Hoekstra's ad people did.

[dmmidmi]

I get the impression that Stabenow's been around long enough to be considered a bacon bringer, so she's simply put up with. She's certainly closer to her state's interests than Levin was, but both were and are kept around for the same reason.

Neither is a particularly effective bacon bringer, but you are correct--tenure is a serious strength. If Stabenow wins in 2018, it'll become increasingly difficult to unseat her going forward.

As long as she's voting against automobile carbon emissions and fuel efficiency standards, the bigwigs in Metro Detroit will be okay with sending her checks.

[pbrower2a]

I'd love to see Land go for it again.

She'd lose by double digits again.

You think so?  Most of the reason she lost so badly to Peters is because she never found her campaign message and let Peters smear her with sexist attacks.  If she runs again, she will have hopefully learned from her mistakes last time.

Terry Land did not dare show that she would be a Koch puppet -- which she was. She also lacked the interesting curriculum vitae that Joni Ernst (who is a Koch puppet) offered.