Is Trump top tier/front-runner?

[Likely Voter]

Since he got into the race there have been nine polls conducted an in every single one of them Trump is at 10% or more and in most of them he is in 2nd place. So is he now in the top tier? (along with Bush and Walker and maybe Rubio if you still think he is in the top tier). Or is this just a short term flash that will quickly fade?

National Polls since Trump got in...
YouGov    11%  1st(tied)   
FOX   11%   2nd
CNN    12%   2nd

State Polls...
Quin-IA   10% 2nd(tied)   
Suff-NH   11%  2nd   
CNN-NH   11% 2nd   
PPP-KY   12% 3rd   
Farleigh-NJ   11% 3rd   
PPP-MI   14% 2nd(tied)

[Mehmentum]

In my mind, he's in the same league as Carson.  They both poll well, but I doubt they have much of a chance at winning due to various factors.

[Horsemask]

It's all name recognition.

[RogueBeaver]

It's all name recognition.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Probably No.

The guy has high name recognition, is not a "washington insider", and has the appearance of having some success in business. That gets him 10, 11%, which is enough to be near the top at this early stage.

However, he already has underwater favorability everywhere, and has no political experience whatsoever. He's already lost some business contracts because of what he's said on the trail. He'll get into the Fox Debate next month, make a complete fool of himself, and return to the bottom of the polls. He'll be out by October.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Remember when people were asking this question about Herman Cain in 2012?

Trump is a joke candidate and will fizzle out. It's not about name recognition, it's about who's acceptable to the largest percentage of the base when candidates start dropping out. That's Rubio, Kasich, Bush, Walker in that order.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Remember when people were asking this question about Herman Cain in 2012?

Trump is a joke candidate and will fizzle out. It's not about name recognition, it's about who's acceptable to the largest percentage of the base when candidates start dropping out. That's Rubio, Kasich, Bush, Walker in that order.

Since when does the base prefer Bush over Walker?

[Phony Moderate]

Don't underestimate him.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Remember when people were asking this question about Herman Cain in 2012?

Trump is a joke candidate and will fizzle out. It's not about name recognition, it's about who's acceptable to the largest percentage of the base when candidates start dropping out. That's Rubio, Kasich, Bush, Walker in that order.

Since when does the base prefer Bush over Walker?

As Walker pushes to the extreme to try to compete with Cruz for the Tea Party vote, I imagine a lot of the big money guys are getting itchy. They know going into the election with a hard-edged social conservative is a bad idea.

[Mister Mets]

Remember when people were asking this question about Herman Cain in 2012?

Trump is a joke candidate and will fizzle out. It's not about name recognition, it's about who's acceptable to the largest percentage of the base when candidates start dropping out. That's Rubio, Kasich, Bush, Walker in that order.

I also doubt that Trump will ever hit 25% in polls.

[Publius]

In addition to the name recognition perceived business acumen factors, some of his 10% probably supports him just to be ironic.

[Maxwell]

Trump will fizzle quickly.

[cinyc]

Trump will fizzle quickly.

Underestimate Trump at your own peril.  There is always room for someone from the nativist, protectionist Buchanan wing of the Republican Party in the primaries.  He'll probably end up doing better than many expect - though still fall far away from actually winning.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Trump will fizzle quickly.

Underestimate Trump at your own peril.  There is always room for someone from the nativist, protectionist Buchanan wing of the Republican Party in the primaries.  He'll probably end up doing better than many expect - though still fall far away from actually winning.

I agree with this.  Trump can be a player if he wants to be.  He could get nominated if America decides to take him seriously, and they just may. 

[The Mikado]

Trump isn't a serious candidate...yet.

If he's polling like this three months from now, I will have to change my opinion. For now, though, Trump is basically a reservoir for undecided GOP voters.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

He isn't a candidate at all according to the FEC.....

[Mr. Morden]

If he's polling like this three months from now, I will have to change my opinion. For now, though, Trump is basically a reservoir for undecided GOP voters.

What do you mean by "polling like this" though?  He's at ~10% in both Iowa and NH, which is good enough for second place in both states.  Eventually, some of the second/third tier candidates will drop off and support will crystalize around a few frontrunners, and 10% will no longer be good enough for second place.  So sure, I wouldn't be surprised if he stays at 10% for a long time, and even grows his support somewhat from there.  He's got plenty of $ from his personal fortune to throw at ad spending in the early states if he wants to.

But 10% won't be good enough for 2nd place by year's end, in all likelihood.

[Mr. Morden]

Should also note some names from GOP primaries past: Pat Robertson, Pat Buchanan, Steve Forbes, Herman Cain….

All of them either won some primaries or were leading in the polls in one or more early primary states for a while.  But none of them were ever going to win the nomination.  Outsider candidates without "conventional" experience don't win the GOP presidential nomination (at least not since Ike, if you want to count that).  Why would Trump of all people (who tends to lead the polls in the "would not vote for under any circumstances) break that pattern?  He won't.  So he might be "top tier" in that he could get a decent % of the vote and impact the race, but he's not top tier in terms of likelihood to win the nomination.

[Likely Voter]

You dont need to be a potential winner to be a 'front runner,' especially this year. My point on making this thread is that it seems Republican a good chunk of voters are taking him seriously. This isn't name recognition, he was polling in 9th place before he announced and they knew who he was then too. There is a nativist element that love him just like they loved Buchannan and others before him.

And the real world is taking him seriously, notably NBC, Univision, Macys and others.  Even the media is now starting to take him seriously. The question is, when will his fellow GOP candidates start to take him seriously?  

Cain may have been a joke but when he surged his fellow GOPers pounced, mocking his 999 plan (rightfully) and of course the media pounced (resulting in Uz beki beki beki stan, etc.).

I suspect it will be Chris Christie who goes after Trump but I still feel Bush is missing an opportunity.

[Mr. Morden]

You dont need to be a potential winner to be a 'front runner,' especially this year.

It depends on your definition of "frontrunner".  If frontrunner is defined as being ahead in the likelihood of winning the nomination, then by definition you need to be a potential winner.  But people mean different things when they say "frontrunner".

Like I said before, I would distinguish between potential nominees on the hand and not potential nominees who nonetheless will get enough support to potentially affect the outcome on the second hand and not potential nominees who will be irrelevant on the third hand.  (Yes, I'm a Martian so I have three hands.)

Trump isn't a potential nominee, but he might be relevant enough to affect the outcome.  On the other hand (a fourth hand?), he might not.  Too early to tell.

[andrew_c]

He's a joke candidate who will most likely be toast after New Hampshire.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

For now yes, I wouldn't underestimate him though, he can do some serious damage if he makes it to the debates not to mention he has the money to go all out against any candidate he chooses, although I believe he is just running to inflate his ego, I wouldn't underestimate his abilities either.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Well Michelle Bachmann was "top-tier" in Iowa in 2011, so....

[Maxwell]

Trump will fizzle quickly.

Underestimate Trump at your own peril.  There is always room for someone from the nativist, protectionist Buchanan wing of the Republican Party in the primaries.  He'll probably end up doing better than many expect - though still fall far away from actually winning.

You're wrong. Some scandal will come out, or debates will reveal him to be even more of a moron than we already know.

[Fritz]

I'm hoping that, once it becomes abundantly clear to Donald that he will not win the GOP nomination, he will throw his hat into the general election as an independent.