UK Election: Analysis

[Peter]

Northeast England

No seat changes in this Region.

Cleveland (6 Labour)
Conservative-  25.3% (-2.4%)
Labour-  52.2% (-6.6%)
Lib Dem-  17.6% (+5.9%)
UKIP-  1.7%
BNP-  1.7%
Others-  1.5%

General Lib Dem movement forward here, which is characteristic of the Northeast in general. BNP and UKIP have put themselves on the map here, we'll see if this is sustainable in future years.

Durham (7 Labour)
Conservative-  14.6% (-4.4%)
Labour-  56.2% (-7.1%)
Lib Dem-  22.9% (+8.1%)
UKIP-  1.2%
Green-  0.1%
BNP-  0.4%
Others-  4.6%

Big Lib Dem movement forward here also, most notably in the City of Durham where the Labour majority was slashed from 13,000+ to 3,400; Expect this to be a big Lib Dem target in future elections. Conservative vote generally retreated, except in Bishop Auckland; Its hard to believe that in 1983 the Tories had 3/4x their present vote share in some of these seats.

Northumberland (2 Labour, 1 Conservative, 1 Lib Dem)

Conservative-  25.7% (-0.4%)
Labour-  39.4% (-3.8%)
Lib Dem-  33.7%   (+5.8%)
Others 1.2%

Again, the Lib Dem trend was evident, and Labour was also able to close the gap in Hexham to the Tories. No other significant events.

Tyne & Wear (13 Labour)
Conservative-  17.4% (-0.3%)
Labour-  55.8% (-7.1%)
Lib Dem-  23.2% (+6.6%)
UKIP-  0.9%
Green-  0.3%
BNP-  1.1%
Others-  1.4%

Significant Lib Dem advances in NUT Central and North; Tories have also closed up Tynemouth once again. The smaller parties have also registered a presence here, though once again it is unclear whether it is sustainable long term.

Total (28 Labour, 1 Conservative, 1 Lib Dem)

Conservative-  19.5% (-1.8%)
Labour-  52.9% (-6.5%)
Lib Dem-  23.4% (+6.7%)
Others-  4.3%

Before the election there were 27 seats with a Labour majority of over 20%, there are now only 21. The sole Lib Dem seat continues to have a majority of over 20%.

All in all the Liberal Democrats have clearly established themselves as the principal opposition to Labour in the NE, and have set themselves up with competitive seats in City of Durham, and two NUT seats. Whilst we're still waiting on final numbers, it looks like the Tories have dropped a couple of points - I don't expect this to change any time soon, and that longer term they will face a wipeout in the Region except for some of the Northern extremeties such as Hexham and Tynemouth and Southern extremeties such as Stockton.

In the next election, Labour will not be able to rely on this to provide the solid 28 seats the Region has been up until now, especially as redistricting will hurt it in Tyne & Wear as I think is likely.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

LibDems didn't do as well in the Northeast as they'd hoped; Labour winning over 50% in Blaydon was a big blow for them, as were the suprisingly large margins in Durham City and Newcastle Central; they threw everything bar the kitchen sink at Durham City and still lost. God bless those little pit villages

[Peter]

Southeast England

Berkshire, Newbury: Conservative gain from Lib Dem
Berkshire, Reading East: Conservative gain from Labour
Buckinghamshire, Milton Keynes NE: Conservative gain from Labour
Kent, Gravesham: Conservative gain from Labour
Surrey, Guildford: Conservative gain from Lib Dem

Berkshire (6 Conservative, 2 Labour)
Conservative-  43.6% (+3.4%)
Labour-  24.0% (-6.4%)
Lib Dem-  27.4% (+1.4%)
UKIP-  2.4%
Green-  1.2%
Others-  1.4%

The Conservatives were truly resurgant in Berkshire, with the seat of Newbury that had fallen in 1993 finally being reclaimed. They also capitalised on divisions in the Reading Labour party to take one of those seats. The Lib Dem stratergy to "decapitate" Theresa May in Maidenhead failed and the first black Tory MP was elected in the safe seat of Windsor.

Buckinghamshire (6 Conservative, 1 Labour)
Conservative-  47.7% (+2.2%)
Labour-  25.9% (-4.8%)
Lib Dem-  21.2% (+1.4%)
UKIP-  3.7%
Green-  1.4%
Others-  0.1%

The Tories were able to gain the seat of Milton Keynes NE, a former safe seat, from Labour and have placed the other Keynes constituency in reach for the next election also. UKIP narrowly missed out on retaining their deposits in Aylesbury and Beaconsfield, polling 4.8% in both cases.

Hampshire  (11 Conservative, 4 Lib Dem, 3 Labour)
Conservative-  43.3% (+1.9%)
Labour-  22.8% (-3.9%)
Lib Dem-  29.6% (+1.3%)
UKIP-  3.2%
Green-  0.8%
Others-  0.5%

No seats changed hands in this sizable county, yet there was a lot of movement in several seats: The Tories have established a large majority of 13,000 over the Lib Dems on the Isle of Wight, a seat they only took in 2001. The Conservatives also reduced the Lib Dem majority to a mere 125 in Romsey and pulled in close in Portsmouth North. UKIP successfully held their deposit in New Forest East with 5.2% of the vote.

Kent (10 Conservative, 7 Labour)
Conservative-  45.8% (+2.4%)
Labour-  32.4% (-5.3%)
Lib Dem-  17.3% (+1.8%)
UKIP-  2.9%
Greens-  0.6%
Others-  0.9%

For all it was hyped up, Kent ended up seeing only one change with Gravesham going Tory. There were several near misses with Bob Marshall-Andrews, the Labour MP for Medway declaring that he had lost on national TV, only to go onto win. All Labour majorities in the Region have been slashed with only Chatham and Dover having anything vaguely defendable for the next election. Conservative majorities across the Region grew, with the Lib Dem attempt to oust Michael Howard in his home constituency failing somewhat miserably. In Thanet South, Nigel Farage was able to save his deposit for UKIP.

Oxfordshire (4 Conservative, 1 Lib Dem, 1 Labour)
Conservative-  40.9% (+3.0%)
Labour-  23.4% (-6.1%)
Lib Dem-  28.9% (+1.6%)
UKIP-  2.0%
Greens-  3.3%
Others-  1.5%

The status quo was maintained throughout the 4 Tory seats with majorities being extended by a few thousand. The Labour seat of Oxford East (held by former Cabinet Secretary Andrew Smith) was targetted by the Lib Dems, and they nearly won it, reducing a 10,000 majority to a mere 1,000. Despite valiant attempts in all 6 seats by the Greens to save their deposits, all were unsuccessful with the two Oxford candidates coming closest with 4.0% and 4.3% respectively.

Surrey (11 Conservative)
Conservative-  50.5% (+2.9%)
Labour-  16.9% (-4.9%)
Lib Dem-  28.2% (+1.2%)
UKIP-  3.2%
Greens-  0.4%
Others-  0.8%

The Conservatives have once again painted Surrey blue by retaking Guildford, with the mother of an old friend of mine now being the sitting MP. Majorities were generally expanded and Surrey SW, a Lib Dem target, was confidently held by the new MP.  UKIP came close to saving their deposits in Spelthorne, Reigate and Surrey East, but failed.

East Sussex (3 Conservative, 1 Lib Dem, 4 Labour)
Conservative-  39.8% (+0.3%)
Labour-  25.4% (-4.8%)   
Lib Dem-  26.2% (+2.2%)
UKIP-  2.7%
Greens-  5.5%
Others-  0.5%

The Lib Dem attempt to unseat the Tories in Eastbourne was unsuccessful, and very much epitomised their problems in Tory-Lib margainals. The story of the night from the county was the success of the Green candidate, Cllr Keith Taylor, in polling 22% in Brighton Pavilion and nearly taking second place, setting a party record. They also polled well in Brighton Kempton and Hove, holding their deposits in both, as did UKIP in Bexhill & Battle.

West Sussex (7 Conservative, 1 Labour)
Conservative-  46.7% (+0.7%)
Labour-  21.3% (-4.6%)
Lib Dem-  26.1% (+3.1%)
UKIP-  4.9%
Others-  1.0%

Much of the results in West Sussex was the reinforcement of majorities, however, in Crawley, a new town that feeds jobs to Gatwick Airport, a surge by the Tories caught all of those who really should know whats going on down there (i.e. me) off guard. In the end a nail-bitting evening and morning of three recounts ended in a Labour majority of just 37. UKIP were able to hold their deposits in Arundel & South Downs, Worthing West and Chichester, as well as Bognor Regis & Littlehampton where they polled an impressive 8%.

Total (58 Conservative, 6 Lib Dem, 19 Labour)
Conservative-  45.0% (+2.1%)
Labour-  24.4% (-5.0%)
Lib Dem-  25.4% (+1.7%)
UKIP-  3.1%
Greens-  1.3%
Others-  0.8%

Prior to this election, the Conservative had 23 seats with a majority of 20% or more (i.e. notionally safe) in the Southeast, they have now extended this to 32 seats. Labour's tally of safe seats decreased to a mere two down from six, and the Lib Dems sole safe seat is no longer safe.

The swing was generally uniform across the Region, especially for the Lib Dems, with a few notable exceptions such as Reading and Crawley. The Southeast remains a Conservative heartland and the remaining Labour seats in Kent are now much easier pickings for the next general election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Re: T&W redistricting: IIRC NUT Central becomes a safe Labour seat (it picks up Scotswood, Elswick etc. from the abolished Tyne Bridge), while NUT North becomes a bit less safe (and more suburban).
The Boundary Commision might have changed their minds though (the Sunderland proposals were pretty unpopular).