What's the Chance
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 26, 2024, 03:58:58 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  What's the Chance		 « previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: What's the Chance  (Read 727 times)
Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,917
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: July 02, 2015, 03:23:48 AM »
That 2016 produces the same map as 2000? Bush is well-liked in New Hampshire, and his appeals to minorities might just make him competitive in Nevada.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: July 02, 2015, 03:25:28 AM »
1%. If that. Virginia going Republican while states like Iowa going Democratic seems unlikely now.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,307
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: July 02, 2015, 03:28:10 AM »
There's no way Nevada goes Republican before Iowa.
Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,917
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: July 02, 2015, 03:28:30 AM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on July 02, 2015, 03:25:28 AM
1%. If that. Virginia going Republican while states like Iowa going Democratic seems unlikely now.

You're suggesting they're drifting in opposite directions? How dare you! Opinion on Atlas dictates that Iowa will be as reliably Democratic as it always was!
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: July 02, 2015, 10:16:53 AM »
Quote from: Free Bird on July 02, 2015, 03:28:30 AM
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on July 02, 2015, 03:25:28 AM
1%. If that. Virginia going Republican while states like Iowa going Democratic seems unlikely now.

You're suggesting they're drifting in opposite directions? How dare you! Opinion on Atlas dictates that Iowa will be as reliably Democratic as it always was!

Iowa always seems to have a slight Democratic lean to it, but the problem is Virginia has drifted leftward to the point that they're in the same arena. Soon Virginia might be more Democratic than Iowa.
Logged
Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,921
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.77, S: 3.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: July 02, 2015, 10:24:29 AM »
Quote from: TNvolunteer on July 02, 2015, 10:12:19 AM
Uh, actually it's quite plausible (assuming Bush is the nominee, otherwise it won't happen IMO). The only state I'm really not sure about is New Vermont. I doubt Clinton loses it.



I assume you mean New Hampshire?
Logged
DS0816
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,143
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: July 02, 2015, 10:38:14 AM »
Quote from: Free Bird on July 02, 2015, 03:23:48 AM

Re: What's the Chance


That 2016 produces the same map as 2000? …

No.
Logged
🦀🎂🦀🎂
CrabCake
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,263
Kiribati


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 02, 2015, 10:42:18 AM »
More likely than 2004 IMO.
Logged
bobloblaw
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,018
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 02, 2015, 11:51:38 AM »
Quote from: Free Bird on July 02, 2015, 03:23:48 AM
That 2016 produces the same map as 2000? Bush is well-liked in New Hampshire, and his appeals to minorities might just make him competitive in Nevada.

Bush is well liked in NH?Huh He is polling at under 20% in the GOP primary.
Logged
bobloblaw
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,018
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: July 02, 2015, 11:53:31 AM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on July 02, 2015, 10:16:53 AM
Quote from: Free Bird on July 02, 2015, 03:28:30 AM
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on July 02, 2015, 03:25:28 AM
1%. If that. Virginia going Republican while states like Iowa going Democratic seems unlikely now.

You're suggesting they're drifting in opposite directions? How dare you! Opinion on Atlas dictates that Iowa will be as reliably Democratic as it always was!

Iowa always seems to have a slight Democratic lean to it, but the problem is Virginia has drifted leftward to the point that they're in the same arena. Soon Virginia might be more Democratic than Iowa.

Iowa votes with the national popular vote. Obama did about 1 point better in IA than nationally, maybe due to being a neighbor.
Logged
eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,501
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: July 02, 2015, 12:00:03 PM »
Quote from: xingkerui on July 02, 2015, 03:28:10 AM
There's no way Nevada goes Republican before Iowa.

Actually there are two ways that could happen: Bush and Rubio. The only hickup is that Hillary is as popular in the latino community as those two combined right now. So they'll have to earn their votes really hard. However, it's not impossible. If Bush or Rubio get elected and choose Sandoval as their running mate, anything could happen. All bets would be off for Nevada.
Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,917
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: July 02, 2015, 07:01:44 PM »
Quote from: TNvolunteer on July 02, 2015, 10:12:19 AM
Uh, actually it's quite plausible (assuming Bush is the nominee, otherwise it won't happen IMO). The only state I'm really not sure about is New Vermont. I doubt Clinton loses it.



I swear to opebo you push the New Hampshire button on purpose
Logged
Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,175


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: July 02, 2015, 11:22:07 PM »
The only past election result besides 2012 and maaaybe 2008 and 2004 that could plausibly be repeated in 2016. But still highly unlikely.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: July 02, 2015, 11:32:49 PM »

True, NM will probably only go Republican if the Republican wins by a decent margin.  Of course NM was close in 2004, and ridiculously close in 2000, so it's kind of splitting hairs.
Logged
Publius
Rookie
**
Posts: 98


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: July 03, 2015, 10:39:13 AM »
Statistically, it's highly unlikely. Similar maps, sure, but in 57 attempts, how many times have we had identical electoral maps? Too many variables.
Logged
bedstuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,526


Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -4.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: July 03, 2015, 10:44:50 AM »
Quote from: Free Bird on July 02, 2015, 03:23:48 AM
That 2016 produces the same map as 2000? Bush is well-liked in New Hampshire, and his appeals to minorities might just make him competitive in Nevada.

Latest PPP poll of NH:
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jeb Bush?
Favorable 24%
Unfavorable 54%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NH_42115.pdf
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.042 seconds with 12 queries.