Is Trump top tier/front-runner?

[The Mikado]

If he's polling like this three months from now, I will have to change my opinion. For now, though, Trump is basically a reservoir for undecided GOP voters.

What do you mean by "polling like this" though?  He's at ~10% in both Iowa and NH, which is good enough for second place in both states.  Eventually, some of the second/third tier candidates will drop off and support will crystalize around a few frontrunners, and 10% will no longer be good enough for second place.  So sure, I wouldn't be surprised if he stays at 10% for a long time, and even grows his support somewhat from there.  He's got plenty of $ from his personal fortune to throw at ad spending in the early states if he wants to.

But 10% won't be good enough for 2nd place by year's end, in all likelihood.

I tend to lump Trump and Carson together in terms of protest vote buckets. If Carson fades, I suspect Trump is the big beneficiary, and that could move him from the ~10% range to the ~15% range and into someone who will place (though not win) on primary nights. A Donald Trump who gets, say, 18% in Iowa is a serious candidate, even if that puts him in 3rd place.

[Fuzzy Bear]

You dont need to be a potential winner to be a 'front runner,' especially this year. My point on making this thread is that it seems Republican a good chunk of voters are taking him seriously. This isn't name recognition, he was polling in 9th place before he announced and they knew who he was then too. There is a nativist element that love him just like they loved Buchannan and others before him.

And the real world is taking him seriously, notably NBC, Univision, Macys and others.  Even the media is now starting to take him seriously. The question is, when will his fellow GOP candidates start to take him seriously?  

Cain may have been a joke but when he surged his fellow GOPers pounced, mocking his 999 plan (rightfully) and of course the media pounced (resulting in Uz beki beki beki stan, etc.).

I suspect it will be Chris Christie who goes after Trump but I still feel Bush is missing an opportunity.

Trump's making all the right enemies, and he still has lots of friends. 

I don't see Trump as a "protest candidate".  Carson fills that role; the role of the guy who believes that the GOP doesn't take religious conservatives seriously enough.  Trump's not an "insider" but he's not an "outsider", either; he's a billionaire who enjoys the perception that he knows things about the economy that other candidates don't.  And he's staked out a protectionist economic position in the GOP that still has some adherants.  (The GOP protectionists are, IMO, a bitter percentage of the GOP rank and file than the activists.)  That's good politics.  Mexicans are blasting him for "racist" comments, but his comments are what many middle Americans think that they are seeing in many parts of the country.  And there are a significant number of folks in both parties, but especially in the GOP, that believe that immigration laws are under-enforced. 

I predict that Trump will do surprisingly well in states where independents and Democrats can vote in the GOP primary for President.  Despite his flirtations with "birthers" and some of the conspiracy theory crowd, Trump is NOT perceived as a partisan Republican; he's perceived as an independent businessman whose type is needed in politics.  He's also perceived as a celebrity who's a publicity hound, which detracts from his image, but this can be remedied with the right campaign.