Primary calendar / poll closing times and delegate allocation megathread (Christmas is saved!)
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Author Topic: Primary calendar / poll closing times and delegate allocation megathread (Christmas is saved!)  (Read 34502 times)
jimrtex
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« Reply #25 on: August 16, 2015, 03:13:30 AM »

TBA:

Washington

The green papers has dates for some of these:

March 5: Kansas Republican Caucus, Washington Republican Caucus

March 26: Washington Democratic Caucus, Alaska Democratic Caucus
Washington will hold its primary on May 24, the date set by state law. There is a provision in state law that permits a change in date, if approved by a 2/3 vote of a committee comprised of the four legislative leaders (or their designate), four state party leaders, and the Secretary of State.

This resulted in a 5:4 GOP advantage, but they were unable to secure a 6th vote to change the date to March 8 or March 22.

The Democratic party in Washington does not use the primary, and so didn't want to have a primary before their caucus, where it would be clear to all that they would be ignoring the results.

The Republican party has not set the date for their caucus. The March 5 date is based on 2012 when there was no primary.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #26 on: August 16, 2015, 10:05:14 PM »

OK, a few brief updates.  I'm going to go all Carlhayden on you by numbering my updates.

First, I promise that I'm going to (eventually) add some more details to the opening posts of this thread.  I just haven't had a chance to do that yet.

Second, it looks like the North Carolina legislature still has not passed their primary date bill to push their primary back to March 15.  Until they do, the primary there is still tethered to the South Carolina primary, and will be pre-March 1 (but if that happens, then NC loses about 80% of its delegates).  I'm expecting that that bill will pass, and that NC moves to March 15, but it's not a done deal yet.

Third, the media keeps saying that "The Iowa caucuses will be on Feb. 1", as if it's a done deal.  It is not a done deal.  Feb. 1 is a strong possibility, but I would not rule out Jan. 25.  We just don't know yet.

The uncertainty is largely created by uncertainty about the timing of Nevada and South Carolina.  The latest is that the Nevada Dems want to go on Saturday, Feb. 20th, while the South Carolina Dems are opting for Saturday, Feb. 27th.  (See the latest on http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au/p/2016-presidential-primary-calendar.html )  But the South Carolina Republicans are highly unlikely to go any later than Feb. 20th.  Nevada Republicans are a mystery, at this point.  But we may have more clarity on Aug. 29th, after this meeting of the Nevada GOP:

http://www.nevadagop.org/nrcc-special-meeting-aug-29-2015/

If the Nevada GOP joins the Democrats for Feb. 20th caucuses, then will the South Carolina Republicans really be happy to go on the same day (as they did in 2008), or will they want a whole day to themselves.  If they want a whole day to themselves, then we can presume that the calendar will be something like:

Mon, Jan. 25: Iowa caucuses (both parties)
Tue, Feb. 2: New Hampshire primary (both parties)
Sat, Feb. 13: South Carolina primary (Republicans only)
Sat, Feb. 20: Nevada caucuses (both parties)
Sat, Feb. 27: South Carolina primary (Democrats only)
Tue, Mar. 1: Super Tuesday

The RNC wants every state to finalize their plans by Oct. 1, so one would think that this'll all get resolved by then.  (Though several states missed the deadline in both 2008 and 2012, and nothing happened to them.)
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #27 on: August 22, 2015, 12:25:11 PM »

Will Kentucky's decision regarding whether to hold the caucus for Paul determine what date its contest is held on?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #28 on: August 22, 2015, 05:55:10 PM »

Will Kentucky's decision regarding whether to hold the caucus for Paul determine what date its contest is held on?

There will be a Kentucky primary held on May 17th regardless.  It's just that (assuming Paul pays up the $ he promised and the caucuses go forward), there will also be Republican caucuses held on March 5th, and those caucuses will determine the allocation of the delegates on the Republican side, with the May 17th primary determining only the allocation of delegates for the Democrats.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #29 on: August 25, 2015, 03:32:11 PM »

http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_28700919/colorado-republicans-cancel-2016-presidential-caucus-vote
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Crumpets
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« Reply #30 on: August 25, 2015, 07:27:54 PM »


Wow. From the sound of it, they're not using a primary either, unless I'm reading it wrong.

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jimrtex
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« Reply #31 on: August 26, 2015, 12:16:49 AM »


The Republican party rules require that delegates to the national convention be bound by the results of a statewide vote, including one conducted at the precinct caucuses.

They are simply avoiding conducting such a poll, which permits the caucus to occur before March 1.  Colorado holds a multi-tiered convention system, that is also used as part of the nomination process for other offices. Candidates that may appear on the primary ballot are determined at the state convention for statewide offices, and district conventions for statewide offices. There is also a petition process for candidates who fail to win convention support.

So the procedure may discourage voters who want to treat a caucus like a primary - attend, vote, and leave. The precinct caucus would choose delegates to other conventions, such as a county or district convention. The delegation might or might not reflect the presidential preferences of those attending.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #32 on: August 26, 2015, 05:44:28 AM »

Here is more on Colorado's decision:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au/2015/08/colorado-republicans-opt-to-forgo.html

It's possible that the caucuses might be held as early as Feb. 2.  I'd assume that since there'll be no preference vote taken on caucus night, and thus no "winner" of the caucuses, Iowa and New Hampshire will not view these caucuses as a threat, and will not move their contests correspondingly earlier, but I guess anything's possible.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #33 on: August 26, 2015, 12:32:26 PM »

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http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_28700919/colorado-republicans-cancel-2016-presidential-caucus-vote
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« Reply #34 on: August 26, 2015, 12:37:04 PM »

Colorado's beyond stupid.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #35 on: August 29, 2015, 04:05:58 PM »

Breaking news out of the Nevada Republican Party meeting that was held today: The GOP caucuses will be held on Tuesday, Feb. 23rd:

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/637729801009164288

to be held from 5-9pm:

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/637726284810850304

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More details on what this means for the big picture, in another post I'm about to write...
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #36 on: August 29, 2015, 04:33:41 PM »

Here is where we’re at now, with the calendar up to and including Super Tuesday:

Monday, Feb. 1st: Iowa caucuses (both parties)
Tuesday, Feb. 2nd: Colorado caucuses??? (maybe) (Republicans only, no presidential preference poll taken)
Tuesday, Feb. 9th: New Hampshire primary (both parties)
Saturday, Feb. 20th: Nevada caucuses (Democrats only)
Saturday, Feb. 20th: South Carolina primary (Republicans only)
Tuesday, Feb. 23rd: Nevada caucuses (Republicans only)
Tuesday, Feb. 23rd: North Carolina primary??? (maybe) (both parties, but big delegate hit)
Saturday, Feb. 27th: South Carolina primary (Democrats only)
Tuesday, Mar. 1st: Super Tuesday [at least a dozen states will vote for both parties]

So we currently have the two parties voting on different days in both Nevada and South Carolina.  I don’t know if that’ll last or not.  I don’t think the GOP is going to move away from those tentative dates in either state.  The Dems might though.  Maybe the South Carolina Dems will move their primary to the same day as the Republicans, and maybe the Nevada Dems will do the same with their caucus.  Or maybe not.

I also don’t know what the heck is going on in North Carolina.  Their current primary law says that the primary is to be held on the Tuesday following the South Carolina primary.  I have no idea how they’re supposed to deal with the possibility that the South Carolina primary may be held on two different dates by the two parties.  A bill was proposed that would move the primary to March, untethering it from South Carolina, but it has yet to reach final passage in the legislature.  I don’t know if it’ll end up passing or not.  If the primary is held before March 1, then there’ll be big delegate penalties (on the GOP side, they’ll lose as much as ~80% of their delegates), so it’s unclear how much the candidates will bother campaigning in the state.

In Colorado, the Dems will hold caucuses on Super Tuesday.  The Republicans will hold caucuses as well, but the date isn’t set yet.  They might end up going on Feb. 2nd, which would seem to invite a huge delegate penalty like the one North Carolina may face, except that there won’t be any presidential preference poll taken.  They’ll elect delegates at the caucuses, but we won’t necessarily know which presidential candidates those delegates support.  So they’ll be able to get away with avoiding the delegate penalty.

Given that, how will the candidates campaign in Colorado?  Will Iowa and New Hampshire feel threatened, and move their dates up two weeks, to make sure they go before Colorado?  Probably not, but I don’t know for sure.
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« Reply #37 on: August 29, 2015, 05:30:39 PM »

Here is where we’re at now, with the calendar up to and including Super Tuesday:

Monday, Feb. 1st: Iowa caucuses (both parties)
Tuesday, Feb. 2nd: Colorado caucuses??? (maybe) (Republicans only, no presidential preference poll taken)
Tuesday, Feb. 9th: New Hampshire primary (both parties)
Saturday, Feb. 20th: Nevada caucuses (Democrats only)
Saturday, Feb. 20th: South Carolina primary (Republicans only)
Tuesday, Feb. 23rd: Nevada caucuses (Republicans only)
Tuesday, Feb. 23rd: North Carolina primary??? (maybe) (both parties, but big delegate hit)
Saturday, Feb. 27th: South Carolina primary (Democrats only)
Tuesday, Mar. 1st: Super Tuesday [at least a dozen states will vote for both parties]

So we currently have the two parties voting on different days in both Nevada and South Carolina.  I don’t know if that’ll last or not.  I don’t think the GOP is going to move away from those tentative dates in either state.  The Dems might though.  Maybe the South Carolina Dems will move their primary to the same day as the Republicans, and maybe the Nevada Dems will do the same with their caucus.  Or maybe not.

I also don’t know what the heck is going on in North Carolina.  Their current primary law says that the primary is to be held on the Tuesday following the South Carolina primary.  I have no idea how they’re supposed to deal with the possibility that the South Carolina primary may be held on two different dates by the two parties.  A bill was proposed that would move the primary to March, untethering it from South Carolina, but it has yet to reach final passage in the legislature.  I don’t know if it’ll end up passing or not.  If the primary is held before March 1, then there’ll be big delegate penalties (on the GOP side, they’ll lose as much as ~80% of their delegates), so it’s unclear how much the candidates will bother campaigning in the state.

In Colorado, the Dems will hold caucuses on Super Tuesday.  The Republicans will hold caucuses as well, but the date isn’t set yet.  They might end up going on Feb. 2nd, which would seem to invite a huge delegate penalty like the one North Carolina may face, except that there won’t be any presidential preference poll taken.  They’ll elect delegates at the caucuses, but we won’t necessarily know which presidential candidates those delegates support.  So they’ll be able to get away with avoiding the delegate penalty.

Given that, how will the candidates campaign in Colorado?  Will Iowa and New Hampshire feel threatened, and move their dates up two weeks, to make sure they go before Colorado?  Probably not, but I don’t know for sure.


All that might happen is Iowa goes to January 25th and New Hampshire to February 1st. Pushing it back further would never happen, as the less attention Colorado gets, the more IA/NH gets, and moving both contests into January would increase the amount of attention given to CO. And New Hampshire will be punished if it goes in January - it was punished for going in January in 2012, so Priebus clearly has no qualms about punishing NH despite its pivotal place in the primary calendar.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #38 on: August 29, 2015, 05:49:18 PM »

All that might happen is Iowa goes to January 25th and New Hampshire to February 1st.

New Hampshire's never gone on a Monday though.  They really like going on a Tuesday, and I don't see Bill Gardner changing that, unless there's some kind of catastrophe.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #39 on: August 30, 2015, 12:50:33 AM »

All that might happen is Iowa goes to January 25th and New Hampshire to February 1st. Pushing it back further would never happen, as the less attention Colorado gets, the more IA/NH gets, and moving both contests into January would increase the amount of attention given to CO. And New Hampshire will be punished if it goes in January - it was punished for going in January in 2012, so Priebus clearly has no qualms about punishing NH despite its pivotal place in the primary calendar.
I think the Democratic dates are frozen, or at least they will receive the same sanction that a state that moves into March does. Iowa and New Hampshire probably won't care, but it could be a problem if the partyies decide to enforce the candidate sanctions.

The Republican rules say that the four snowflakes can go a month earlier than the next earliest state.
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« Reply #40 on: August 30, 2015, 01:34:59 AM »

All that might happen is Iowa goes to January 25th and New Hampshire to February 1st. Pushing it back further would never happen, as the less attention Colorado gets, the more IA/NH gets, and moving both contests into January would increase the amount of attention given to CO. And New Hampshire will be punished if it goes in January - it was punished for going in January in 2012, so Priebus clearly has no qualms about punishing NH despite its pivotal place in the primary calendar.
I think the Democratic dates are frozen, or at least they will receive the same sanction that a state that moves into March does. Iowa and New Hampshire probably won't care, but it could be a problem if the partyies decide to enforce the candidate sanctions.

The Republican rules say that the four snowflakes can go a month earlier than the next earliest state.

The Republican rules also say that ANY state that goes in January will have only 9 delegates at the convention, no matter what. Maybe Priebus will turn a blind eye towards Iowa, but he has no qualms at all with punishing NH.

CO should just clear things up by having all their caucuses in March.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #41 on: August 30, 2015, 02:00:43 AM »

All that might happen is Iowa goes to January 25th and New Hampshire to February 1st. Pushing it back further would never happen, as the less attention Colorado gets, the more IA/NH gets, and moving both contests into January would increase the amount of attention given to CO. And New Hampshire will be punished if it goes in January - it was punished for going in January in 2012, so Priebus clearly has no qualms about punishing NH despite its pivotal place in the primary calendar.
I think the Democratic dates are frozen, or at least they will receive the same sanction that a state that moves into March does. Iowa and New Hampshire probably won't care, but it could be a problem if the partyies decide to enforce the candidate sanctions.

The Republican rules say that the four snowflakes can go a month earlier than the next earliest state.

The Republican rules also say that ANY state that goes in January will have only 9 delegates at the convention, no matter what. Maybe Priebus will turn a blind eye towards Iowa, but he has no qualms at all with punishing NH.

CO should just clear things up by having all their caucuses in March.
Republican rules for convention

I interpret 16(c)(1) as letting a state move to one month before any interloper. So if North Carolina stays where they are at, they are going to get whacked AND South Carolina, etc. could still move.

Democratic rules only zap 50% of delegates, so Iowa and New Hampshire probably would not be bothered.

I don't see why South Carolina would be worried about North Carolina going a couple of days later, particularly if candidates are sanctioned if they have a rally in Raleigh and are only fighting over a few delegates. At most they will run a few more ads in Charlotte and say they are only going after South Carolina voters. And even if North Carolina moves to May, they'll still be running ads in Charlotte.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #42 on: September 03, 2015, 07:06:51 PM »

In a move that should surprise no one, Georgia has formally scheduled its 2016 presidential primary for Super Tuesday:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au/2015/09/georgia-presidential-primary-set-for.html

In other news, Missouri Republicans will *not* use statewide WTA to allocate delegates this time.  They're switching to "winner take most", which means allocation by congressional district:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au/2015/09/missouri-republicans-abandon-winner.html
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #43 on: September 04, 2015, 02:10:29 PM »

2016 PRELIMINARY PRESIDENTIAL AND CONGRESSIONAL PRIMARY DATES from FEC

http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2016/2016pdates.pdf
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politicallefty
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« Reply #44 on: September 05, 2015, 01:05:16 PM »

Is it known yet or is it currently possible to make a map of which states are winner-take-all vs proportional vs whatever for delegates right now (an incomplete map would be fine as well)?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #45 on: September 05, 2015, 04:42:35 PM »

Is it known yet or is it currently possible to make a map of which states are winner-take-all vs proportional vs whatever for delegates right now (an incomplete map would be fine as well)?

I don't have time to do it today, but maybe someone else can.  On the Republican side, every state is different.  As Josh Putnam said on his blog though, "Arizona, Delaware, Florida, New Jersey, Utah and Washington DC as well as probably North Carolina and Ohio" will probably be the only statewide WTA states.  (In North Carolina's case, they can only do that if they move the primary to March 15.  The other ones listed are already on March 15 or later.)

There are plenty of other states though (including the biggest prize of all, California) that are "winner take most".  That is, WTA by congressional district.  So if someone won the state by 10 points or more, they'd probably win almost all the delegates, since they'd probably end up winning the bulk of the congressional districts.  Very few states are purely proportional.

On the Democratic side, though, every state is proportional, though with a 15% minimum threshold (either statewide or in a given congressional district) to receive any delegates.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #46 on: September 05, 2015, 05:55:40 PM »

Is it known yet or is it currently possible to make a map of which states are winner-take-all vs proportional vs whatever for delegates right now (an incomplete map would be fine as well)?
There are plenty of other states though (including the biggest prize of all, California) that are "winner take most".  That is, WTA by congressional district.  So if someone won the state by 10 points or more, they'd probably win almost all the delegates, since they'd probably end up winning the bulk of the congressional districts.  Very few states are purely proportional.

On the Democratic side, though, every state is proportional, though with a 15% minimum threshold (either statewide or in a given congressional district) to receive any delegates.
Republican congressional districts are only allocated three delegates. They typically have thresholds of 15%, which in a contest with 17 candidates may be hard to achieve for more than the one candidate. If only one qualifies, then it is WTA. It is like Turkey on steroids (pun intended).
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politicallefty
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« Reply #47 on: September 05, 2015, 09:10:18 PM »

I don't have time to do it today, but maybe someone else can.  On the Republican side, every state is different.  As Josh Putnam said on his blog though, "Arizona, Delaware, Florida, New Jersey, Utah and Washington DC as well as probably North Carolina and Ohio" will probably be the only statewide WTA states.  (In North Carolina's case, they can only do that if they move the primary to March 15.  The other ones listed are already on March 15 or later.)

There are plenty of other states though (including the biggest prize of all, California) that are "winner take most".  That is, WTA by congressional district.  So if someone won the state by 10 points or more, they'd probably win almost all the delegates, since they'd probably end up winning the bulk of the congressional districts.  Very few states are purely proportional.

On the Democratic side, though, every state is proportional, though with a 15% minimum threshold (either statewide or in a given congressional district) to receive any delegates.

I'm aware of Democratic rules, which are consistent across the board. Republicans rules haven't been consistent at all. I remember 2008 and 2012 where Northeastern states were virtually all winner-take-all, while Southern states were almost always proportional. (Not to make a process topic too political, but that format heavily favoured establishment candidates like McCain and Romney.) If that's changed significantly since last time, it's a pretty huge consideration in the race today. I'd be more than happy to make the map. I just need to know where to find the data as to each state's primary/caucus rules.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #48 on: September 05, 2015, 10:27:57 PM »

I don't have time to do it today, but maybe someone else can.  On the Republican side, every state is different.  As Josh Putnam said on his blog though, "Arizona, Delaware, Florida, New Jersey, Utah and Washington DC as well as probably North Carolina and Ohio" will probably be the only statewide WTA states.  (In North Carolina's case, they can only do that if they move the primary to March 15.  The other ones listed are already on March 15 or later.)

There are plenty of other states though (including the biggest prize of all, California) that are "winner take most".  That is, WTA by congressional district.  So if someone won the state by 10 points or more, they'd probably win almost all the delegates, since they'd probably end up winning the bulk of the congressional districts.  Very few states are purely proportional.

On the Democratic side, though, every state is proportional, though with a 15% minimum threshold (either statewide or in a given congressional district) to receive any delegates.

I'm aware of Democratic rules, which are consistent across the board. Republicans rules haven't been consistent at all. I remember 2008 and 2012 where Northeastern states were virtually all winner-take-all, while Southern states were almost always proportional. (Not to make a process topic too political, but that format heavily favoured establishment candidates like McCain and Romney.) If that's changed significantly since last time, it's a pretty huge consideration in the race today. I'd be more than happy to make the map. I just need to know where to find the data as to each state's primary/caucus rules.

Well, you can look here:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/R-Alloc.phtml

but the information is given in a somewhat confusing manner, and I'm not sure if they're up to date.  You click on the link for each state, but then trying to interpret what it says is sometimes tricky.  You have to be careful to distinguish between what is just the 2012 rules, and what has now been nullified by updated rules.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #49 on: September 07, 2015, 01:10:08 PM »

If you want to try to compile the Republican delegate rules for each state, go here:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/R-Alloc.phtml

and then click on each state, and read what it says.  The trick is that while the rules are explained in black text around the middle of the page, there are often updates given in red higher up on the page, which sometimes nullify everything said below.

For example, let’s take the 5 states with the most delegates: California, Texas, Florida, New York, and Georgia.

California: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/CA-R
159 delegates allocated WTA by congressional district.  Every district in the state gets three delegates, regardless of whether that district has 300 Republicans or 300,000 Republicans.  Whichever candidate wins a plurality of votes in that district gets all three delegates.

The state’s remaining 10 delegates are allocated WTA to the statewide winner.

Texas: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/TX-R
The update given in 2014 says that of the state’s 152 delegates, 75% will be allocated based on the results of the primary, while the remaining 25% will be allocated WTA at the state party convention.  But the details of how those 75% will be allocated remain a mystery, because the subsequent explanation on that page explains how it would work if all of the delegates were decided by the outcome of the primary, which is no longer the case.

Florida: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/FL-R
As explained in the May 16th update, the state party has switched to statewide WTA, so all of the subsequent discussion about allocation by congressional district appears to be null and void.  It’s just straight up WTA by statewide vote now.

New York: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/NY-R
81 delegates allocated by congressional district.  Each district gets three delegates.  If a candidate wins more than 50% of the vote in that district, he gets all three delegates.  If only one candidate gets more than 20% of the vote in that district, he gets all three delegates.  Otherwise, if multiple candidates get between 20 and 50%, then the winner gets two delegates while the 2nd place finisher gets one delegate.

The state’s remaining 11 delegates are allocated proportionally to any candidate getting more than 20% of the statewide vote.  However, if the statewide winner breaks 50%, he gets all 11 delegates.

Georgia: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/GA-R
42 delegates allocated by congressional district.  Each district gets three delegates.  If a candidate wins more than 50% of the vote in that district, he gets all three delegates.  Otherwise, the candidate with the most votes gets two delegates, while the candidate with the second most votes gets one delegate.

The state’s remaining 34 delegates are allocated proportionally by the statewide vote total.  It’s proportional allocation, but only for those candidates who get at least 20% of the statewide total.  Candidates with less than 20% of the vote get nothing.
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