Primary calendar / poll closing times and delegate allocation megathread (Christmas is saved!)
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Author Topic: Primary calendar / poll closing times and delegate allocation megathread (Christmas is saved!)  (Read 34501 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: July 04, 2015, 12:43:14 AM »
« edited: June 01, 2016, 09:46:41 PM by Mr. Morden »

OK, at least so far, there is far less drama in the primary calendar reshuffle this year than there was in the 2008 and 2012 cycles.  Also, the FHQ blog does a pretty good job of following this stuff, so what do you need me for?:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au

http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au/p/2016-presidential-primary-calendar.html

So I won't be updating this thread as religiously as the one from four years ago, but I figured it might be useful to have this talk in one place, since many of the same questions keep coming up (and way too many people here still think Florida is an early primary state).

Anyway, I'll fill in more details later.

UPDATE: Here is the calendar (black = both parties, blue = Republicans only, red = Democrats only).  Let me know if you think I made any mistakes.
UPDATE (2/19): Have started listing the poll closing time (for primaries) and the caucus beginning time (for caucuses).  All times given are converted to the Eastern time zone.

Mon, Feb. 1: IA caucuses
Tue, Feb. 9: NH primary
Sat, Feb. 20: NV caucuses (2pm), SC primary (7pm)
Tue, Feb. 23: NV caucuses (8pm - 12am)
Sat, Feb. 27: SC primary (7pm)

Tue, Mar. 1: AL primary (8pm), AK caucuses (7pm-12am), American Samoa caucuses, AR primary (8:30pm), CO caucuses (9pm) (no preference vote for the GOP), GA primary (7pm), MA primary (8pm), MN caucuses (8pm), ND caucuses (no preference vote), OK primary (8pm), TN primary (8pm), TX primary (8/9pm), VT primary (7pm), VA primary (7pm), WY convention (no preference vote), Democrats abroad primary
Sat, Mar. 5: KS caucuses(D: 2-4pm; R: 11am-3pm), KY caucuses (10am-5pm), LA primary (9pm), ME caucuses (8pm), NE caucuses (11am-9pm)
Sun, Mar. 6: ME caucuses (1-8pm), Puerto Rico primary (2pm)
Tue, Mar. 8: HI caucuses (11pm-1am), ID primary (10/11pm), MI primary (8/9pm), MS primary (8pm)
Thu, Mar. 10: Virgin Islands caucuses (11am-5pm)
Sat, Mar. 12: Guam convention (starts 6pm Friday), Northern Mariana Islands caucuses (starts 3am), DC convention (10am-4pm, but goes to 9pm for Orthodox Jews), WY county conventions (10am-8pm)
Tue, Mar. 15: FL primary (7/8pm), IL primary (8pm), MO primary (8pm), NC primary (7:30pm), Northern Mariana Islands caucuses (4:30am-6am), OH primary (7:30pm)
Tue, Mar. 22: American Samoa convention, AZ primary (10pm), ID caucuses (begins @9pm), UT caucuses (D: 8-10:30pm; R: 9-11pm, but goes to 1am for online voting)
Sat, Mar. 26: AK caucuses, HI caucuses, WA caucuses

Sun, Apr. 3: ND convention
Tue, Apr. 5: WI primary (9pm)
Fri, Apr. 8 - Sat, Apr. 9: CO district and state conventions (state convention on the 9th from 10am to 7pm ET)
Sat, Apr. 9: WY caucuses (1pm)
Thu, Apr. 14 - Sat, Apr. 16: WY state convention
Tue, Apr. 19: NY primary (9pm)
Tue, Apr. 26: CT primary (8pm), DE primary (8pm), MD primary (8pm), PA primary (8pm), RI primary (8pm)

Tue, May 3: IN primary (6pm/7pm)
Sat, May 7: Guam caucuses (8pm Friday - 6am Saturday)
Tue, May 10: NE primary (9pm), WV primary (7:30pm)
Tue, May 17: KY primary (6/7pm) , OR (11pm)
Tue, May 24: WA primary (11pm; this primary only awards delegates on the GOP side; for the Dems it’s a beauty contest)

Sat, Jun. 4: Virgin Islands caucuses (10am - 6pm)
Sun, Jun. 5: Puerto Rico primary (3pm)
Tue, Jun. 7: CA primary (11pm), MT primary (10pm), NJ primary (8pm), NM primary (9pm), ND caucuses (begin at 8pm/9pm), SD primary (8pm/9pm)
Tue, Jun. 14: DC primary (8pm)

You can also see a graphical representation of the Republican calendar here:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/02/02/us/cruz-trump-rubio-nomination-paths.html?_r=0
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1 on: July 04, 2015, 12:45:25 AM »

placeholder post -- will fill in details on party rules later
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #2 on: July 04, 2015, 12:45:38 AM »

placeholder post -- will fill in details on party rules later
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #3 on: July 05, 2015, 12:30:53 AM »

OK, first off, feel free to ask me anything that's unclear about the primary calendar or delegate allocation.  There's a lot I don't know, but again, many of the same questions keep coming up on this board, so I'll do my best.

To get things started, the biggest stumbling block to an "orderly" primary season that starts in either late January or early February would have been the fact that the New York primary is scheduled for Feb. 2nd.  However, that looks to be resolved now that both the state Assembly and state Senate have passed a bill that moves the primary to April 19:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au/2015/06/still-unresolved-new-york-senate-passes.html
http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au/2015/06/april-19-presidential-primary-bill.html

I assume Cuomo will sign this, and then the path is clear for IA/NH/NV/SC to get their desired calendar placement.  That means Iowa on either January 25 or February 1, still TBD.

One question still unresolved about the ordering of those though, is that we don't know if NV will come before or after SC, or if it'll be different between the two parties.  The Republicans in SC are not going to allow their primary to go any later than Feb. 20, under any circumstances.  Going a week later would put them just a few days before Super Tuesday, and they'll never agree to that.  However, the DNC calendar has SC slotted after Nevada, on Feb. 27:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/08/25/the-early-2016-primary-calendar-is-now-set-it-will-change/

So will the South Carolina primary be on different days for the two parties?  That's possible.  It's what they did in 2008.  So yes, we might see something like:

Feb. 1: Iowa
Feb. 9: NH
Feb. 20: NV(D), SC(R)
Feb. 27: NV(R), SC(D)
Mar. 1: Super Tuesday

OTOH, the SC Dems might agree to the Feb. 20th date, to share the date with the state Republicans.  In that case, what happens to Nevada?  Will it go later, or will it be bumped up a week, moving Iowa and NH a week earlier?  It's still unclear.

More later...
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #4 on: July 05, 2015, 01:49:57 AM »

If Iowa went on January 25, would it be subject to the "super-penalty" of only having 9 delegates?

--------------------------


Also, from http://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2016-presidential-primary-schedule-calendar/, we have this tentative schedule:

February 1: Democratic Iowa Caucus
February 2: Republican Iowa Caucus
February 9: New Hampshire
February 20: South Carolina
February 23: Nevada Caucuses

Hmmm, looks like things have changed since that WaPost article from last august (this was updated a few days ago). Let's take a look at the rest:

March 1 (Super Tuesday):

Alabama
Arkansas
Colorado Caucuses
Georgia
Massachusetts
Minnesota Caucuses
North Carolina
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Vermont
Virginia

March 5: Louisiana

March 8: Republican Hawaii Caucus, Mississippi, Michigan

March 13: Republican Puerto Rico Primary

March 15: Ohio, Florida, Illinois, Missouri

March 22: Arizona, Utah

March 26: Democratic Hawaii Caucus

April 5: Wisconsin

April 19: New York (from Morden's post, not the article above)

April 26: Connecticut, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island

May 3: Indiana

May 10: Nebraska, West Virginia

May 17: Kentucky, Oregon

June 5: Democratic Puerto Rico Primary

June 7: California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota

June 14: D.C.

TBA:

Utah
Colorado
Idaho
Kansas
Maine
Washington
Wyoming
Alaska

The green papers has dates for some of these:

February 2: Colorado Republican Caucus (This doesn't seem right, but okay...)
March 1: Colorado Democratic Caucus, Idaho Republican Caucus
March 5: Kansas Republican Caucus, Washington Republican Caucus
March 6: Maine Democratic Caucus
March 22: Utah Caucuses, Idaho Democratic Caucus
March 26: Washington Democratic Caucus, Alaska Democratic Caucus
April 9: Wyoming Democratic Caucus

So, that leaves the following completely TBA:

Kansas (DEM)
Maine (GOP)
Wyoming (GOP)
Alaska (GOP)

For the Non-Puerto-Rico Territories, also from the green papers:

Northern Mariana Islands: March 12 for the GOP, TBA for the Dems
Virgin Islands: March 12 for the GOP, June 5 for the Dems
American Samoa: March 1 for the Dems, March 8 for the GOP
Guam: March 12 for the GOP, May 7 for the Dems
Americans Abroad: March 8 (Dems only; the GOP does not hold an Americans Abroad Primary or Caucus)

----Of Course, all of the above is completely tentative.-----
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #5 on: July 05, 2015, 01:59:19 AM »

If Iowa went on January 25, would it be subject to the "super-penalty" of only having 9 delegates?

In principle, yes, but I don't think it would be enforced.

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There's nothing to suggest that the Dems and Republicans will vote on different days in Iowa.  I would assume that they'll hold the caucuses on a Monday (the traditional day of the week for them), and will either be Jan. 25 or Feb. 1.

I also haven't seen anything to suggest that Nevada will be able to pull off a weekday caucus.  Feb. 23rd is when they were trying to schedule the *primary* for, when it looked like they might hold a primary.  But the legislature ended up not passing legislation to establish a primary, so it'll be caucuses again for them, presumably once again held on a Saturday.

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Both parties in Colorado have the option of holding caucuses on either the first Tuesday of Feb. or the first Tuesday of March.  I guess the Republicans haven't yet said which one they'll pick, but everyone expects them to go with March, so that they don't get hit by the super penalty.

The FHQ blog is the most reliable in terms of listing scheduling for everything from March 1 or later.  Everything before that is kind of speculative though, because we don't know what's going to happen with NV and SC.
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Joe Biden 2020
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« Reply #6 on: July 06, 2015, 03:42:46 PM »

How long do states have to solidify their primary/caucus dates?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #7 on: July 06, 2015, 08:40:59 PM »

How long do states have to solidify their primary/caucus dates?

In the 2012 cycle, the RNC required states to have settled on their primary timing by Oct. 1, 2011.  However, they never actually punish states for missing that deadline.  Last time around, the New Hampshire primary date wasn't set until the first week of November.  Not sure if the deadline is the same this time, but like I said, if states don't get punished for missing it, it's not a very firm deadline anyway.  I think the DNC deadline might be a bit earlier, but again, no punishment for missing it.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #8 on: July 11, 2015, 01:02:29 AM »

Washington

March 26: Washington Democratic Caucus, Alaska Democratic Caucus
The legislature has funded the 2016 primary, and the SOS has proposed moving it to March 8.
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Vega
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« Reply #9 on: July 11, 2015, 10:08:04 PM »

I must say that I liked 2012's schedule a lot more. Oh well.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #10 on: July 19, 2015, 03:00:59 AM »

I still haven't heard any updates from New York on whether Cuomo has signed the proposed move of the primary to April.

In other news, another state that has been in conflict with national party rules is North Carolina.  Looks like a deal has been struck in the legislature there to move the primary to March 15:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au/2015/07/north-carolina-legislature-zeroing-in.html
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Gass3268
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« Reply #11 on: July 20, 2015, 12:55:55 PM »

The current schedule is very good for Clinton, but almost equally bad for Bush. Way too many southern states early in the process with Florida no longer being the Republican kingmaker like it was the past two cycles.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #12 on: July 24, 2015, 07:30:12 PM »

Breaking...

Cuomo has signed the bill that would move the New York primary to April 19:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au/2015/07/cuomo-signs-bill-setting-2016-new-york.html

So it's official, no New York primary in February.  The path is clear for IA, NH, NV, and SC to get something like the dates they want.  The first contest will be Iowa, most likely either on the last Monday of January or the first Monday of February.  No primaries starting as early as the first week of January, like we had in 2008 and 2012, which forced people to care about campaigns on Christmas and New Year's.

Christmas is saved!
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #13 on: July 25, 2015, 05:31:40 AM »

In other "Christmas is saved!" news, the North Carolina senate unanimously passed a bill that would move the primary there to March 15th:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au/2015/07/march-15-presidential-primary-bill.html

It's expected to pass, and be signed into law.  If that happens, then IA/NH/NV/SC would indeed be the only pre-March 1 states.  The question remaining is what ends up happening with the Nevada and South Carolina dates.  Now that Nevada is definitely sticking with caucuses rather than a primary, it's all very unclear.  Anyway, whatever NV and SC decide will determine where IA and NH go.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #14 on: July 25, 2015, 09:24:21 AM »

RIP Huckabee and Christie's 1% chance of winning a single state.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #15 on: July 25, 2015, 08:44:48 PM »

As Josh Putnam noted on Twitter, technically there is still one unresolved "Christmas is saved" issue, which is that the Colorado GOP hasn't yet settled on a caucus date, and one of the options they have is the first week of February.  However, no one expects them to go with that choice.  They're widely expected to pick the first week of March, but haven't announced it yet.  They have until Oct. 1 to decide.
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« Reply #16 on: July 26, 2015, 01:28:03 AM »

From reading the current schedule of the primaries, Super Tuesday looks good for a more southern/conservative candidate and bad for Bush/Christie etc.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #17 on: July 26, 2015, 01:38:29 AM »

From reading the current schedule of the primaries, Super Tuesday looks good for a more southern/conservative candidate and bad for Bush/Christie etc.

Yeah, Super Tuesday is very southern-heavy this time.  Not sure who, exactly, will do best that day.  It'll be interesting to see who wins Texas.  I'm not convinced either Cruz or Perry will still be viable enough by then to manage to win their own home state.
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« Reply #18 on: July 26, 2015, 02:07:02 AM »

From reading the current schedule of the primaries, Super Tuesday looks good for a more southern/conservative candidate and bad for Bush/Christie etc.

Yeah, Super Tuesday is very southern-heavy this time.  Not sure who, exactly, will do best that day.  It'll be interesting to see who wins Texas.  I'm not convinced either Cruz or Perry will still be viable enough by then to manage to win their own home state.


I think Paul will have a good shot. His father won 18 delegates in the 2012 primary there despite not actively campaigning and Romney having already locked up the nomination. Bush is another possibility, because of his family's Texas roots.

Even if Perry is still in the race on Super Tuesday, it's very easy to see him losing Texas. He didn't run for another gubernatorial term because he was at serious risk of losing the primary, which would have put an end to his presidential ambitions. If the party had serious misgivings about him as Governor, it's difficult to see why they'd feel differently with the prospect of him being president.

Cruz, if he's still in the race then, isn't safe because of his polarizing nature, but his relations with the establishment have improved since the 2013 'defund obamacare!' campaign. In fact, he is seen quite favorably among 'somewhat liberal' republicans:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_72215.pdf

(go to Page 41)

And unlike Perry, his record doesn't stand out as objectively bad to both sides. As long as Cruz is still in the race, I think he wins Texas. It might not be a blowout, but he should win it.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #19 on: July 28, 2015, 01:28:10 AM »

In the comments on this post:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au/2015/07/cuomo-signs-bill-setting-2016-new-york.html

Josh Putnam predicts that the early part of the calendar will look like this:

Monday, Feb. 1: IA caucus (both parties)
Tuesday, Feb. 9: NH primary (both parties)
Saturday, Feb. 20: SC primary (Republicans only)
Tuesday, Feb. 23: NV caucus (both parties)
Saturday, Feb. 27: SC primary (Democrats only)
Tuesday, Mar. 1: Super Tuesday

I thought the Feb. 23 date for Nevada is only what they would go with if they'd switched to a primary?  Will they try for a Tuesday caucus?  In both 2008 and 2012, they did Saturday caucuses.
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jfern
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« Reply #20 on: July 28, 2015, 01:31:37 AM »

Feb. 1st is the latest the Iowa caucus would be since 1996. The last 2 times it was Jan. 3rd.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #21 on: July 28, 2015, 04:15:39 AM »

It's pretty much between Jan. 25 and Feb. 1 for Iowa this time.  I don't see it going any earlier than the 25th, given how things are now shaking out.  And yeah, even the 25th would still be the latest it's been since 1996.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #22 on: July 30, 2015, 01:41:27 AM »

Does this orderly arrangement mean that people have conceded the figh to dethrone IA/NH/SC of their early status?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #23 on: July 30, 2015, 02:04:04 AM »

Does this orderly arrangement mean that people have conceded the figh to dethrone IA/NH/SC of their early status?

At least in this cycle, yes, the rest of the states have given up on trying to be first.  No one is trying to dethrone the early states, like Florida (and others) did last time.  Who knows what'll happen in 2020 though.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #24 on: July 30, 2015, 02:06:45 AM »

Colorado caucuses (at least on the Republican side) might still happen as early as the first week of February:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au/2015/07/date-of-2016-colorado-republican.html

But that'll only happen if there's no actual presidential preference vote taken at the caucus, which means that either way, it's not a threat to IA/NH, since there won't be any actual "vote" taken to interfere with the legit early states.
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