Primary calendar / poll closing times and delegate allocation megathread (Christmas is saved!)

[Mr. Morden]

OK, at least so far, there is far less drama in the primary calendar reshuffle this year than there was in the 2008 and 2012 cycles.  Also, the FHQ blog does a pretty good job of following this stuff, so what do you need me for?:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au

http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au/p/2016-presidential-primary-calendar.html

So I won't be updating this thread as religiously as the one from four years ago, but I figured it might be useful to have this talk in one place, since many of the same questions keep coming up (and way too many people here still think Florida is an early primary state).

Anyway, I'll fill in more details later.

UPDATE: Here is the calendar (black = both parties, blue = Republicans only, red = Democrats only).  Let me know if you think I made any mistakes.
UPDATE (2/19): Have started listing the poll closing time (for primaries) and the caucus beginning time (for caucuses).  All times given are converted to the Eastern time zone.

Mon, Feb. 1: IA caucuses
Tue, Feb. 9: NH primary
Sat, Feb. 20: NV caucuses (2pm), SC primary (7pm)
Tue, Feb. 23: NV caucuses (8pm - 12am)
Sat, Feb. 27: SC primary (7pm)

Tue, Mar. 1: AL primary (8pm), AK caucuses (7pm-12am), American Samoa caucuses, AR primary (8:30pm), CO caucuses (9pm) (no preference vote for the GOP), GA primary (7pm), MA primary (8pm), MN caucuses (8pm), ND caucuses (no preference vote), OK primary (8pm), TN primary (8pm), TX primary (8/9pm), VT primary (7pm), VA primary (7pm), WY convention (no preference vote), Democrats abroad primary
Sat, Mar. 5: KS caucuses(D: 2-4pm; R: 11am-3pm), KY caucuses (10am-5pm), LA primary (9pm), ME caucuses (8pm), NE caucuses (11am-9pm)
Sun, Mar. 6: ME caucuses (1-8pm), Puerto Rico primary (2pm)
Tue, Mar. 8: HI caucuses (11pm-1am), ID primary (10/11pm), MI primary (8/9pm), MS primary (8pm)
Thu, Mar. 10: Virgin Islands caucuses (11am-5pm)
Sat, Mar. 12: Guam convention (starts 6pm Friday), Northern Mariana Islands caucuses (starts 3am), DC convention (10am-4pm, but goes to 9pm for Orthodox Jews), WY county conventions (10am-8pm)
Tue, Mar. 15: FL primary (7/8pm), IL primary (8pm), MO primary (8pm), NC primary (7:30pm), Northern Mariana Islands caucuses (4:30am-6am), OH primary (7:30pm)
Tue, Mar. 22: American Samoa convention, AZ primary (10pm), ID caucuses (begins @9pm), UT caucuses (D: 8-10:30pm; R: 9-11pm, but goes to 1am for online voting)
Sat, Mar. 26: AK caucuses, HI caucuses, WA caucuses

Sun, Apr. 3: ND convention
Tue, Apr. 5: WI primary (9pm)
Fri, Apr. 8 - Sat, Apr. 9: CO district and state conventions (state convention on the 9th from 10am to 7pm ET)
Sat, Apr. 9: WY caucuses (1pm)
Thu, Apr. 14 - Sat, Apr. 16: WY state convention
Tue, Apr. 19: NY primary (9pm)
Tue, Apr. 26: CT primary (8pm), DE primary (8pm), MD primary (8pm), PA primary (8pm), RI primary (8pm)

Tue, May 3: IN primary (6pm/7pm)
Sat, May 7: Guam caucuses (8pm Friday - 6am Saturday)
Tue, May 10: NE primary (9pm), WV primary (7:30pm)
Tue, May 17: KY primary (6/7pm) , OR (11pm)
Tue, May 24: WA primary (11pm; this primary only awards delegates on the GOP side; for the Dems it’s a beauty contest)

Sat, Jun. 4: Virgin Islands caucuses (10am - 6pm)
Sun, Jun. 5: Puerto Rico primary (3pm)
Tue, Jun. 7: CA primary (11pm), MT primary (10pm), NJ primary (8pm), NM primary (9pm), ND caucuses (begin at 8pm/9pm), SD primary (8pm/9pm)
Tue, Jun. 14: DC primary (8pm)

You can also see a graphical representation of the Republican calendar here:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/02/02/us/cruz-trump-rubio-nomination-paths.html?_r=0

[Mr. Morden]

placeholder post -- will fill in details on party rules later

[Mr. Morden]

placeholder post -- will fill in details on party rules later

[Mr. Morden]

OK, first off, feel free to ask me anything that's unclear about the primary calendar or delegate allocation.  There's a lot I don't know, but again, many of the same questions keep coming up on this board, so I'll do my best.

To get things started, the biggest stumbling block to an "orderly" primary season that starts in either late January or early February would have been the fact that the New York primary is scheduled for Feb. 2nd.  However, that looks to be resolved now that both the state Assembly and state Senate have passed a bill that moves the primary to April 19:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au/2015/06/still-unresolved-new-york-senate-passes.html
http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au/2015/06/april-19-presidential-primary-bill.html

I assume Cuomo will sign this, and then the path is clear for IA/NH/NV/SC to get their desired calendar placement.  That means Iowa on either January 25 or February 1, still TBD.

One question still unresolved about the ordering of those though, is that we don't know if NV will come before or after SC, or if it'll be different between the two parties.  The Republicans in SC are not going to allow their primary to go any later than Feb. 20, under any circumstances.  Going a week later would put them just a few days before Super Tuesday, and they'll never agree to that.  However, the DNC calendar has SC slotted after Nevada, on Feb. 27:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/08/25/the-early-2016-primary-calendar-is-now-set-it-will-change/

So will the South Carolina primary be on different days for the two parties?  That's possible.  It's what they did in 2008.  So yes, we might see something like:

Feb. 1: Iowa
Feb. 9: NH
Feb. 20: NV(D), SC(R)
Feb. 27: NV(R), SC(D)
Mar. 1: Super Tuesday

OTOH, the SC Dems might agree to the Feb. 20th date, to share the date with the state Republicans.  In that case, what happens to Nevada?  Will it go later, or will it be bumped up a week, moving Iowa and NH a week earlier?  It's still unclear.

More later...

[Mr. Morden]

If Iowa went on January 25, would it be subject to the "super-penalty" of only having 9 delegates?

In principle, yes, but I don't think it would be enforced.

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There's nothing to suggest that the Dems and Republicans will vote on different days in Iowa.  I would assume that they'll hold the caucuses on a Monday (the traditional day of the week for them), and will either be Jan. 25 or Feb. 1.

I also haven't seen anything to suggest that Nevada will be able to pull off a weekday caucus.  Feb. 23rd is when they were trying to schedule the *primary* for, when it looked like they might hold a primary.  But the legislature ended up not passing legislation to establish a primary, so it'll be caucuses again for them, presumably once again held on a Saturday.

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Both parties in Colorado have the option of holding caucuses on either the first Tuesday of Feb. or the first Tuesday of March.  I guess the Republicans haven't yet said which one they'll pick, but everyone expects them to go with March, so that they don't get hit by the super penalty.

The FHQ blog is the most reliable in terms of listing scheduling for everything from March 1 or later.  Everything before that is kind of speculative though, because we don't know what's going to happen with NV and SC.

[Mr. Morden]

How long do states have to solidify their primary/caucus dates?

In the 2012 cycle, the RNC required states to have settled on their primary timing by Oct. 1, 2011.  However, they never actually punish states for missing that deadline.  Last time around, the New Hampshire primary date wasn't set until the first week of November.  Not sure if the deadline is the same this time, but like I said, if states don't get punished for missing it, it's not a very firm deadline anyway.  I think the DNC deadline might be a bit earlier, but again, no punishment for missing it.

[Mr. Morden]

I still haven't heard any updates from New York on whether Cuomo has signed the proposed move of the primary to April.

In other news, another state that has been in conflict with national party rules is North Carolina.  Looks like a deal has been struck in the legislature there to move the primary to March 15:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au/2015/07/north-carolina-legislature-zeroing-in.html

[Mr. Morden]

Breaking...

Cuomo has signed the bill that would move the New York primary to April 19:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au/2015/07/cuomo-signs-bill-setting-2016-new-york.html

So it's official, no New York primary in February.  The path is clear for IA, NH, NV, and SC to get something like the dates they want.  The first contest will be Iowa, most likely either on the last Monday of January or the first Monday of February.  No primaries starting as early as the first week of January, like we had in 2008 and 2012, which forced people to care about campaigns on Christmas and New Year's.

Christmas is saved!

[Mr. Morden]

In other "Christmas is saved!" news, the North Carolina senate unanimously passed a bill that would move the primary there to March 15th:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au/2015/07/march-15-presidential-primary-bill.html

It's expected to pass, and be signed into law.  If that happens, then IA/NH/NV/SC would indeed be the only pre-March 1 states.  The question remaining is what ends up happening with the Nevada and South Carolina dates.  Now that Nevada is definitely sticking with caucuses rather than a primary, it's all very unclear.  Anyway, whatever NV and SC decide will determine where IA and NH go.

[Mr. Morden]

As Josh Putnam noted on Twitter, technically there is still one unresolved "Christmas is saved" issue, which is that the Colorado GOP hasn't yet settled on a caucus date, and one of the options they have is the first week of February.  However, no one expects them to go with that choice.  They're widely expected to pick the first week of March, but haven't announced it yet.  They have until Oct. 1 to decide.

[Mr. Morden]

From reading the current schedule of the primaries, Super Tuesday looks good for a more southern/conservative candidate and bad for Bush/Christie etc.

Yeah, Super Tuesday is very southern-heavy this time.  Not sure who, exactly, will do best that day.  It'll be interesting to see who wins Texas.  I'm not convinced either Cruz or Perry will still be viable enough by then to manage to win their own home state.

[Mr. Morden]

In the comments on this post:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au/2015/07/cuomo-signs-bill-setting-2016-new-york.html

Josh Putnam predicts that the early part of the calendar will look like this:

Monday, Feb. 1: IA caucus (both parties)
Tuesday, Feb. 9: NH primary (both parties)
Saturday, Feb. 20: SC primary (Republicans only)
Tuesday, Feb. 23: NV caucus (both parties)
Saturday, Feb. 27: SC primary (Democrats only)
Tuesday, Mar. 1: Super Tuesday

I thought the Feb. 23 date for Nevada is only what they would go with if they'd switched to a primary?  Will they try for a Tuesday caucus?  In both 2008 and 2012, they did Saturday caucuses.

[Mr. Morden]

It's pretty much between Jan. 25 and Feb. 1 for Iowa this time.  I don't see it going any earlier than the 25th, given how things are now shaking out.  And yeah, even the 25th would still be the latest it's been since 1996.

[Mr. Morden]

Does this orderly arrangement mean that people have conceded the figh to dethrone IA/NH/SC of their early status?

At least in this cycle, yes, the rest of the states have given up on trying to be first.  No one is trying to dethrone the early states, like Florida (and others) did last time.  Who knows what'll happen in 2020 though.

[Mr. Morden]

Colorado caucuses (at least on the Republican side) might still happen as early as the first week of February:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au/2015/07/date-of-2016-colorado-republican.html

But that'll only happen if there's no actual presidential preference vote taken at the caucus, which means that either way, it's not a threat to IA/NH, since there won't be any actual "vote" taken to interfere with the legit early states.

[Mr. Morden]

OK, a few brief updates.  I'm going to go all Carlhayden on you by numbering my updates.

First, I promise that I'm going to (eventually) add some more details to the opening posts of this thread.  I just haven't had a chance to do that yet.

Second, it looks like the North Carolina legislature still has not passed their primary date bill to push their primary back to March 15.  Until they do, the primary there is still tethered to the South Carolina primary, and will be pre-March 1 (but if that happens, then NC loses about 80% of its delegates).  I'm expecting that that bill will pass, and that NC moves to March 15, but it's not a done deal yet.

Third, the media keeps saying that "The Iowa caucuses will be on Feb. 1", as if it's a done deal.  It is not a done deal.  Feb. 1 is a strong possibility, but I would not rule out Jan. 25.  We just don't know yet.

The uncertainty is largely created by uncertainty about the timing of Nevada and South Carolina.  The latest is that the Nevada Dems want to go on Saturday, Feb. 20th, while the South Carolina Dems are opting for Saturday, Feb. 27th.  (See the latest on http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au/p/2016-presidential-primary-calendar.html )  But the South Carolina Republicans are highly unlikely to go any later than Feb. 20th.  Nevada Republicans are a mystery, at this point.  But we may have more clarity on Aug. 29th, after this meeting of the Nevada GOP:

http://www.nevadagop.org/nrcc-special-meeting-aug-29-2015/

If the Nevada GOP joins the Democrats for Feb. 20th caucuses, then will the South Carolina Republicans really be happy to go on the same day (as they did in 2008), or will they want a whole day to themselves.  If they want a whole day to themselves, then we can presume that the calendar will be something like:

Mon, Jan. 25: Iowa caucuses (both parties)
Tue, Feb. 2: New Hampshire primary (both parties)
Sat, Feb. 13: South Carolina primary (Republicans only)
Sat, Feb. 20: Nevada caucuses (both parties)
Sat, Feb. 27: South Carolina primary (Democrats only)
Tue, Mar. 1: Super Tuesday

The RNC wants every state to finalize their plans by Oct. 1, so one would think that this'll all get resolved by then.  (Though several states missed the deadline in both 2008 and 2012, and nothing happened to them.)

[Mr. Morden]

Will Kentucky's decision regarding whether to hold the caucus for Paul determine what date its contest is held on?

There will be a Kentucky primary held on May 17th regardless.  It's just that (assuming Paul pays up the $ he promised and the caucuses go forward), there will also be Republican caucuses held on March 5th, and those caucuses will determine the allocation of the delegates on the Republican side, with the May 17th primary determining only the allocation of delegates for the Democrats.

[Mr. Morden]

Here is more on Colorado's decision:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au/2015/08/colorado-republicans-opt-to-forgo.html

It's possible that the caucuses might be held as early as Feb. 2.  I'd assume that since there'll be no preference vote taken on caucus night, and thus no "winner" of the caucuses, Iowa and New Hampshire will not view these caucuses as a threat, and will not move their contests correspondingly earlier, but I guess anything's possible.

[Mr. Morden]

Breaking news out of the Nevada Republican Party meeting that was held today: The GOP caucuses will be held on Tuesday, Feb. 23rd:

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/637729801009164288

to be held from 5-9pm:

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/637726284810850304

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More details on what this means for the big picture, in another post I'm about to write...

[Mr. Morden]

Here is where we’re at now, with the calendar up to and including Super Tuesday:

Monday, Feb. 1st: Iowa caucuses (both parties)
Tuesday, Feb. 2nd: Colorado caucuses??? (maybe) (Republicans only, no presidential preference poll taken)
Tuesday, Feb. 9th: New Hampshire primary (both parties)
Saturday, Feb. 20th: Nevada caucuses (Democrats only)
Saturday, Feb. 20th: South Carolina primary (Republicans only)
Tuesday, Feb. 23rd: Nevada caucuses (Republicans only)
Tuesday, Feb. 23rd: North Carolina primary??? (maybe) (both parties, but big delegate hit)
Saturday, Feb. 27th: South Carolina primary (Democrats only)
Tuesday, Mar. 1st: Super Tuesday [at least a dozen states will vote for both parties]

So we currently have the two parties voting on different days in both Nevada and South Carolina.  I don’t know if that’ll last or not.  I don’t think the GOP is going to move away from those tentative dates in either state.  The Dems might though.  Maybe the South Carolina Dems will move their primary to the same day as the Republicans, and maybe the Nevada Dems will do the same with their caucus.  Or maybe not.

I also don’t know what the heck is going on in North Carolina.  Their current primary law says that the primary is to be held on the Tuesday following the South Carolina primary.  I have no idea how they’re supposed to deal with the possibility that the South Carolina primary may be held on two different dates by the two parties.  A bill was proposed that would move the primary to March, untethering it from South Carolina, but it has yet to reach final passage in the legislature.  I don’t know if it’ll end up passing or not.  If the primary is held before March 1, then there’ll be big delegate penalties (on the GOP side, they’ll lose as much as ~80% of their delegates), so it’s unclear how much the candidates will bother campaigning in the state.

In Colorado, the Dems will hold caucuses on Super Tuesday.  The Republicans will hold caucuses as well, but the date isn’t set yet.  They might end up going on Feb. 2nd, which would seem to invite a huge delegate penalty like the one North Carolina may face, except that there won’t be any presidential preference poll taken.  They’ll elect delegates at the caucuses, but we won’t necessarily know which presidential candidates those delegates support.  So they’ll be able to get away with avoiding the delegate penalty.

Given that, how will the candidates campaign in Colorado?  Will Iowa and New Hampshire feel threatened, and move their dates up two weeks, to make sure they go before Colorado?  Probably not, but I don’t know for sure.

[Mr. Morden]

All that might happen is Iowa goes to January 25th and New Hampshire to February 1st.

New Hampshire's never gone on a Monday though.  They really like going on a Tuesday, and I don't see Bill Gardner changing that, unless there's some kind of catastrophe.

[Mr. Morden]

In a move that should surprise no one, Georgia has formally scheduled its 2016 presidential primary for Super Tuesday:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au/2015/09/georgia-presidential-primary-set-for.html

In other news, Missouri Republicans will *not* use statewide WTA to allocate delegates this time.  They're switching to "winner take most", which means allocation by congressional district:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au/2015/09/missouri-republicans-abandon-winner.html

[Mr. Morden]

Is it known yet or is it currently possible to make a map of which states are winner-take-all vs proportional vs whatever for delegates right now (an incomplete map would be fine as well)?

I don't have time to do it today, but maybe someone else can.  On the Republican side, every state is different.  As Josh Putnam said on his blog though, "Arizona, Delaware, Florida, New Jersey, Utah and Washington DC as well as probably North Carolina and Ohio" will probably be the only statewide WTA states.  (In North Carolina's case, they can only do that if they move the primary to March 15.  The other ones listed are already on March 15 or later.)

There are plenty of other states though (including the biggest prize of all, California) that are "winner take most".  That is, WTA by congressional district.  So if someone won the state by 10 points or more, they'd probably win almost all the delegates, since they'd probably end up winning the bulk of the congressional districts.  Very few states are purely proportional.

On the Democratic side, though, every state is proportional, though with a 15% minimum threshold (either statewide or in a given congressional district) to receive any delegates.

[Mr. Morden]

I don't have time to do it today, but maybe someone else can.  On the Republican side, every state is different.  As Josh Putnam said on his blog though, "Arizona, Delaware, Florida, New Jersey, Utah and Washington DC as well as probably North Carolina and Ohio" will probably be the only statewide WTA states.  (In North Carolina's case, they can only do that if they move the primary to March 15.  The other ones listed are already on March 15 or later.)

There are plenty of other states though (including the biggest prize of all, California) that are "winner take most".  That is, WTA by congressional district.  So if someone won the state by 10 points or more, they'd probably win almost all the delegates, since they'd probably end up winning the bulk of the congressional districts.  Very few states are purely proportional.

On the Democratic side, though, every state is proportional, though with a 15% minimum threshold (either statewide or in a given congressional district) to receive any delegates.

I'm aware of Democratic rules, which are consistent across the board. Republicans rules haven't been consistent at all. I remember 2008 and 2012 where Northeastern states were virtually all winner-take-all, while Southern states were almost always proportional. (Not to make a process topic too political, but that format heavily favoured establishment candidates like McCain and Romney.) If that's changed significantly since last time, it's a pretty huge consideration in the race today. I'd be more than happy to make the map. I just need to know where to find the data as to each state's primary/caucus rules.

Well, you can look here:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/R-Alloc.phtml

but the information is given in a somewhat confusing manner, and I'm not sure if they're up to date.  You click on the link for each state, but then trying to interpret what it says is sometimes tricky.  You have to be careful to distinguish between what is just the 2012 rules, and what has now been nullified by updated rules.

[Mr. Morden]

If you want to try to compile the Republican delegate rules for each state, go here:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/R-Alloc.phtml

and then click on each state, and read what it says.  The trick is that while the rules are explained in black text around the middle of the page, there are often updates given in red higher up on the page, which sometimes nullify everything said below.

For example, let’s take the 5 states with the most delegates: California, Texas, Florida, New York, and Georgia.

California: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/CA-R
159 delegates allocated WTA by congressional district.  Every district in the state gets three delegates, regardless of whether that district has 300 Republicans or 300,000 Republicans.  Whichever candidate wins a plurality of votes in that district gets all three delegates.

The state’s remaining 10 delegates are allocated WTA to the statewide winner.

Texas: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/TX-R
The update given in 2014 says that of the state’s 152 delegates, 75% will be allocated based on the results of the primary, while the remaining 25% will be allocated WTA at the state party convention.  But the details of how those 75% will be allocated remain a mystery, because the subsequent explanation on that page explains how it would work if all of the delegates were decided by the outcome of the primary, which is no longer the case.

Florida: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/FL-R
As explained in the May 16th update, the state party has switched to statewide WTA, so all of the subsequent discussion about allocation by congressional district appears to be null and void.  It’s just straight up WTA by statewide vote now.

New York: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/NY-R
81 delegates allocated by congressional district.  Each district gets three delegates.  If a candidate wins more than 50% of the vote in that district, he gets all three delegates.  If only one candidate gets more than 20% of the vote in that district, he gets all three delegates.  Otherwise, if multiple candidates get between 20 and 50%, then the winner gets two delegates while the 2nd place finisher gets one delegate.

The state’s remaining 11 delegates are allocated proportionally to any candidate getting more than 20% of the statewide vote.  However, if the statewide winner breaks 50%, he gets all 11 delegates.

Georgia: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/GA-R
42 delegates allocated by congressional district.  Each district gets three delegates.  If a candidate wins more than 50% of the vote in that district, he gets all three delegates.  Otherwise, the candidate with the most votes gets two delegates, while the candidate with the second most votes gets one delegate.

The state’s remaining 34 delegates are allocated proportionally by the statewide vote total.  It’s proportional allocation, but only for those candidates who get at least 20% of the statewide total.  Candidates with less than 20% of the vote get nothing.