Primary calendar / poll closing times and delegate allocation megathread (Christmas is saved!)

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Iowa went on January 25, would it be subject to the "super-penalty" of only having 9 delegates?

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Also, from http://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2016-presidential-primary-schedule-calendar/, we have this tentative schedule:

February 1: Democratic Iowa Caucus
February 2: Republican Iowa Caucus
February 9: New Hampshire
February 20: South Carolina
February 23: Nevada Caucuses

Hmmm, looks like things have changed since that WaPost article from last august (this was updated a few days ago). Let's take a look at the rest:

March 1 (Super Tuesday):

Alabama
Arkansas
Colorado Caucuses
Georgia
Massachusetts
Minnesota Caucuses
North Carolina
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Vermont
Virginia

March 5: Louisiana

March 8: Republican Hawaii Caucus, Mississippi, Michigan

March 13: Republican Puerto Rico Primary

March 15: Ohio, Florida, Illinois, Missouri

March 22: Arizona, Utah

March 26: Democratic Hawaii Caucus

April 5: Wisconsin

April 19: New York (from Morden's post, not the article above)

April 26: Connecticut, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island

May 3: Indiana

May 10: Nebraska, West Virginia

May 17: Kentucky, Oregon

June 5: Democratic Puerto Rico Primary

June 7: California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota

June 14: D.C.

TBA:

Utah
Colorado
Idaho
Kansas
Maine
Washington
Wyoming
Alaska

The green papers has dates for some of these:

February 2: Colorado Republican Caucus (This doesn't seem right, but okay...)
March 1: Colorado Democratic Caucus, Idaho Republican Caucus
March 5: Kansas Republican Caucus, Washington Republican Caucus
March 6: Maine Democratic Caucus
March 22: Utah Caucuses, Idaho Democratic Caucus
March 26: Washington Democratic Caucus, Alaska Democratic Caucus
April 9: Wyoming Democratic Caucus

So, that leaves the following completely TBA:

Kansas (DEM)
Maine (GOP)
Wyoming (GOP)
Alaska (GOP)

For the Non-Puerto-Rico Territories, also from the green papers:

Northern Mariana Islands: March 12 for the GOP, TBA for the Dems
Virgin Islands: March 12 for the GOP, June 5 for the Dems
American Samoa: March 1 for the Dems, March 8 for the GOP
Guam: March 12 for the GOP, May 7 for the Dems
Americans Abroad: March 8 (Dems only; the GOP does not hold an Americans Abroad Primary or Caucus)

----Of Course, all of the above is completely tentative.-----

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

From reading the current schedule of the primaries, Super Tuesday looks good for a more southern/conservative candidate and bad for Bush/Christie etc.

Yeah, Super Tuesday is very southern-heavy this time.  Not sure who, exactly, will do best that day.  It'll be interesting to see who wins Texas.  I'm not convinced either Cruz or Perry will still be viable enough by then to manage to win their own home state.

I think Paul will have a good shot. His father won 18 delegates in the 2012 primary there despite not actively campaigning and Romney having already locked up the nomination. Bush is another possibility, because of his family's Texas roots.

Even if Perry is still in the race on Super Tuesday, it's very easy to see him losing Texas. He didn't run for another gubernatorial term because he was at serious risk of losing the primary, which would have put an end to his presidential ambitions. If the party had serious misgivings about him as Governor, it's difficult to see why they'd feel differently with the prospect of him being president.

Cruz, if he's still in the race then, isn't safe because of his polarizing nature, but his relations with the establishment have improved since the 2013 'defund obamacare!' campaign. In fact, he is seen quite favorably among 'somewhat liberal' republicans:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_72215.pdf

(go to Page 41)

And unlike Perry, his record doesn't stand out as objectively bad to both sides. As long as Cruz is still in the race, I think he wins Texas. It might not be a blowout, but he should win it.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Here is where we’re at now, with the calendar up to and including Super Tuesday:

Monday, Feb. 1st: Iowa caucuses (both parties)
Tuesday, Feb. 2nd: Colorado caucuses??? (maybe) (Republicans only, no presidential preference poll taken)
Tuesday, Feb. 9th: New Hampshire primary (both parties)
Saturday, Feb. 20th: Nevada caucuses (Democrats only)
Saturday, Feb. 20th: South Carolina primary (Republicans only)
Tuesday, Feb. 23rd: Nevada caucuses (Republicans only)
Tuesday, Feb. 23rd: North Carolina primary??? (maybe) (both parties, but big delegate hit)
Saturday, Feb. 27th: South Carolina primary (Democrats only)
Tuesday, Mar. 1st: Super Tuesday [at least a dozen states will vote for both parties]

So we currently have the two parties voting on different days in both Nevada and South Carolina.  I don’t know if that’ll last or not.  I don’t think the GOP is going to move away from those tentative dates in either state.  The Dems might though.  Maybe the South Carolina Dems will move their primary to the same day as the Republicans, and maybe the Nevada Dems will do the same with their caucus.  Or maybe not.

I also don’t know what the heck is going on in North Carolina.  Their current primary law says that the primary is to be held on the Tuesday following the South Carolina primary.  I have no idea how they’re supposed to deal with the possibility that the South Carolina primary may be held on two different dates by the two parties.  A bill was proposed that would move the primary to March, untethering it from South Carolina, but it has yet to reach final passage in the legislature.  I don’t know if it’ll end up passing or not.  If the primary is held before March 1, then there’ll be big delegate penalties (on the GOP side, they’ll lose as much as ~80% of their delegates), so it’s unclear how much the candidates will bother campaigning in the state.

In Colorado, the Dems will hold caucuses on Super Tuesday.  The Republicans will hold caucuses as well, but the date isn’t set yet.  They might end up going on Feb. 2nd, which would seem to invite a huge delegate penalty like the one North Carolina may face, except that there won’t be any presidential preference poll taken.  They’ll elect delegates at the caucuses, but we won’t necessarily know which presidential candidates those delegates support.  So they’ll be able to get away with avoiding the delegate penalty.

Given that, how will the candidates campaign in Colorado?  Will Iowa and New Hampshire feel threatened, and move their dates up two weeks, to make sure they go before Colorado?  Probably not, but I don’t know for sure.

All that might happen is Iowa goes to January 25th and New Hampshire to February 1st. Pushing it back further would never happen, as the less attention Colorado gets, the more IA/NH gets, and moving both contests into January would increase the amount of attention given to CO. And New Hampshire will be punished if it goes in January - it was punished for going in January in 2012, so Priebus clearly has no qualms about punishing NH despite its pivotal place in the primary calendar.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

All that might happen is Iowa goes to January 25th and New Hampshire to February 1st. Pushing it back further would never happen, as the less attention Colorado gets, the more IA/NH gets, and moving both contests into January would increase the amount of attention given to CO. And New Hampshire will be punished if it goes in January - it was punished for going in January in 2012, so Priebus clearly has no qualms about punishing NH despite its pivotal place in the primary calendar.

I think the Democratic dates are frozen, or at least they will receive the same sanction that a state that moves into March does. Iowa and New Hampshire probably won't care, but it could be a problem if the partyies decide to enforce the candidate sanctions.

The Republican rules say that the four snowflakes can go a month earlier than the next earliest state.

The Republican rules also say that ANY state that goes in January will have only 9 delegates at the convention, no matter what. Maybe Priebus will turn a blind eye towards Iowa, but he has no qualms at all with punishing NH.

CO should just clear things up by having all their caucuses in March.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So, I've been working through the exact processes of the first several states in preparation for some future posts, and a more overarching question has come up.

What on earth happens to delegates that are bound to candidates who withdraw or are not placed in nomination due to Rule 40?  Early versions of the GOP Rules at least provided for the former possibility, but the current one does not seem to.

Currently, Rule 16 states that states have to allocate and bind their delegates in some winner-take-all or proportional fashion, based on the results of the primary/caucus vote in that state.  Each delegate's vote must be consistent with this, and they are recorded accordingly by the Secretary of the Convention.

Some states attempt to give provisions to deal with this eventuality, but I'm not sure these are consistent with the overall dictum to bind and allocate delegates based on the vote.

The most egregious of these is South Carolina, a Winner-Take-All state, which simply gives the delegates to the second-place (or failing that, the third) if the first-place candidate is not placed in nomination.  Nevada allows candidates to choose to release or reallocate their delegates if they withdraw before the State Convention.  Most other states I've looked at (with the exception of Iowa) provide some means for candidates to release their delegates--or in the case of Alabama, for the delegates to release themselves.

Are these (largely common sense, SC excepting) state rules consistent with the National Rules, and withdrawn candidates' delegates may be released, as one would expect?  Or are they bound to abstain?

Also in Rule 16 is the line: "Except as provided for by state law or state party rule, no presidential candidate shall have the power to remove a delegate."  What does "remove" mean in this context?  Does it cover this eventuality?

This is not to mention the headache of an (unlikely) second ballot; are delegates still bound by the primary vote in their state, regardless of what the state rules say?  As this could lead to an infinite number of ballots, I imagine not, but this is an awkward area in the GOP rules.

In most cases, when candidates withdraw from the race, they simply 'suspend' their campaigns, rather than actually ending them. This is done so 1) they can continue to raise money to help pay off their debt from the campaign, and 2) they can quickly re-enter if the frontrunner dies or something.

'Suspending' is different from 'withdrawing' - withdrawing is almost never done in presidential contests, and indicates a permanent end to one's campaign. While suspensions are generally permanent, they are not required to be that way, and can theoretically be nothing more than breaks from campaigning. The rule (in most states) is that if you merely 'suspend' your campaign, your delegates stay with you, unless you officially release them. This is why Santorum and Gingrich had to officially release their delegates before the 2012 convention - since they only suspended their campaigns rather than actually ending them, their delegates were still pledged to them, and would have been forced to vote for Santorum/Gingrich at the convention if they had been left unreleased.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Nate Cohn has a good story up about how the delegate allocation rules interact with which candidates are in the race:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/18/upshot/mainstream-gop-field-of-three-faces-brutal-delegate-math.html?_r=0

Bottom line: Since, even in most of these states that the media calls "proportional", you either need to get 20% statewide or come in at least second place in congressional districts, the three "establishment" candidates all staying in the race for Super Tuesday and beyond would probably doom their chances of winning many delegates.

In other news, I've decided to repurpose this thread somewhat to include a listing of poll closing times (or opening times, the case of caucuses), since that question is coming up more now.  Already added these times to the OP:

Saturday, Feb. 20:
Nevada Dem. caucus: begins at 2pm Eastern (11am Pacific time)
South Carolina GOP primary: polls close at 7pm Eastern

I've actually been spending a while today trying to find the Super Tuesday poll closing times, but am too lazy to continue doing so now that I know somebody else will.

The Green Papers have all the info for the primary states:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/closing.phtml?format=c

so it's just a matter of figuring out the caucus times.

7:00 EST - Georgia, Texas, Vermont, Virginia
8:00 EST - Alabama, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee
8:30 EST - Arkansas

I have a band concert from 7 to 8, so I'll miss the first closings and probably the 8:00 ones too ;-;

Anyway, I'll try to find the Colorado, Minnesota, and Alaska caucus times now.

Nitpick here - Texas has one county in Mountain Time that closes polls at 8 ET. Networks typically wait for that before calling anything.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Also, not entirely sure if this applies for the primary or not, but at least for the general, Arizona does NOT allow any results to be released until an hour AFTER the polls close. What this means is while the state can be called at 10 ET, there may be no release of results until 11 ET. Judging from past elections, the count is pretty fast once results actually start getting released though.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Also, CNN's countdown clock for their coverage is counting down to 8:30 pm eastern, not 6 pm eastern. Locatetv doesn't know a thing, apparently.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^^ Excellent Times!

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Information on the North Dakota State Republican Convention, starting April 1: http://www.ndgop.org/2016convention/2016convention-agenda/

Major Events:

April 1:

1:30-3:00 pm Committee on Permanent Organization

1:00-4:00 pm Committee on Resolutions

3:00-5:00 pm Committee on Credentials

April 2

Welcome, Fargo Mayor Tim Mahoney

Nomination of Temporary Chair and Secretary

Nomination of Permanent Chair and Secretary

Nomination of Assistant Chair and Assistant Secretary

Report from Rules Committee

Report of Credentials Committee

Speech, Governor Jack Dalrymple

Endorsement of Candidates:

United States Senate

Governor

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Keynote Speaker (unclear who this is)

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Nomination of Presidential Delegates

Endorsement of Candidates:

Superintendent of Public Instruction

Public Service Commissioner

State Treasurer

Lieutenant Governor

April 3:

Welcome, Lt. Governor Drew Wrigley

Report of the Credentials Committee

Endorsement of Candidates:

State Auditor

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Keynote Speaker - Ben Carson (https://www.facebook.com/northdakotagop/photos/a.192379711527.157211.90160626527/10154076742726528/?type=3&theater)

Election of Presidential Delegates


Election of National Committeeman

Election of National Committeewoman

Endorsement of Candidates:


Insurance Commissioner

United States House of Representatives

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Election of Presidential Alternate Delegates (if necessary)

Election of Presidential Electors (for the EC)

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Information on the North Dakota State Republican Convention, starting April 1: http://www.ndgop.org/2016convention/2016convention-agenda/

Yeah, the convention takes place over 3 days, but the actual delegate election is on Saturday, exact time unknown (but it looks like late afternoon is a good guess).

The schedule mentions both a nomination of delegates on Saturday and an Election of delegates on Sunday. So if we get anything Saturday it'll just be the names of possible delegates I guess.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The other keynote speaker is Cruz: http://www.grandforksherald.com/news/politics/3997355-presidential-hopeful-ted-cruz-address-north-dakota-gop-convention-saturday

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Map of the timezone split in Kentucky: