Primary calendar / poll closing times and delegate allocation megathread (Christmas is saved!)

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Will Kentucky's decision regarding whether to hold the caucus for Paul determine what date its contest is held on?

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Interesting how a lot of the important GE states go on March 15.

Do you know why McCrory did it?

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LOL

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Nate Cohn has a good story up about how the delegate allocation rules interact with which candidates are in the race:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/18/upshot/mainstream-gop-field-of-three-faces-brutal-delegate-math.html?_r=0

Bottom line: Since, even in most of these states that the media calls "proportional", you either need to get 20% statewide or come in at least second place in congressional districts, the three "establishment" candidates all staying in the race for Super Tuesday and beyond would probably doom their chances of winning many delegates.

In other news, I've decided to repurpose this thread somewhat to include a listing of poll closing times (or opening times, the case of caucuses), since that question is coming up more now.  Already added these times to the OP:

Saturday, Feb. 20:
Nevada Dem. caucus: begins at 2pm Eastern (11am Pacific time)
South Carolina GOP primary: polls close at 7pm Eastern

I've actually been spending a while today trying to find the Super Tuesday poll closing times, but am too lazy to continue doing so now that I know somebody else will.

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Alaska - Caucuses will start at 7:00 PM EST and end at midnight.
Colorado - Caucuses start at 9:00 PM EST. I'm not sure when they end, but I'm assuming it will be around 9:30 if they operate similarly to the Iowa ones.
Minnesota - I have no idea, but state law says that public schools/universities cannot hold classes after 7:00 PM EST, nor can government committees hold meetings.

Anyone have any information with MN?

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So when can we expect results from MN/CO?

And does anyone know who will be conducting entrance/exit polls?

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Nate Cohn has a good story up about how the delegate allocation rules interact with which candidates are in the race:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/18/upshot/mainstream-gop-field-of-three-faces-brutal-delegate-math.html?_r=0

Bottom line: Since, even in most of these states that the media calls "proportional", you either need to get 20% statewide or come in at least second place in congressional districts, the three "establishment" candidates all staying in the race for Super Tuesday and beyond would probably doom their chances of winning many delegates.

In other news, I've decided to repurpose this thread somewhat to include a listing of poll closing times (or opening times, the case of caucuses), since that question is coming up more now.  Already added these times to the OP:

Saturday, Feb. 20:
Nevada Dem. caucus: begins at 2pm Eastern (11am Pacific time)
South Carolina GOP primary: polls close at 7pm Eastern

I've actually been spending a while today trying to find the Super Tuesday poll closing times, but am too lazy to continue doing so now that I know somebody else will.

The Green Papers have all the info for the primary states:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/closing.phtml?format=c

so it's just a matter of figuring out the caucus times.

7:00 EST - Georgia, Texas, Vermont, Virginia
8:00 EST - Alabama, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee
8:30 EST - Arkansas

I have a band concert from 7 to 8, so I'll miss the first closings and probably the 8:00 ones too ;-;

Anyway, I'll try to find the Colorado, Minnesota, and Alaska caucus times now.

Nitpick here - Texas has one county in Mountain Time that closes polls at 8 ET. Networks typically wait for that before calling anything.

Results from the vast majority of the state will (presumably) be coming in by 7:00 PM EST regardless of when the networks decide to call the election, so I think putting it in the first group is more appropriate.

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Do we know if Colorado and Wyoming will still be holding non-binding caucuses just for the sake of it? If so, what will be considered the "results"?

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Here’s the memo that’s being circulated about the AP’s reporting of results for the caucus:

link

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Looks pretty efficient. Considering the nature of a Republican caucus, we should probably have a good idea of the final results by no later than 12:30 EST.

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Here’s the memo that’s being circulated about the AP’s reporting of results for the caucus:

link

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Looks pretty efficient. Considering the nature of a Republican caucus, we should probably have a good idea of the final results by no later than 12:30 EST.

Well, that was embarrassing.

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Here's where I'm at with poll closing times for Super Tuesday.  Please tell me if I have any of these wrong (all times translated to Eastern time):

primaries:

7pm: GA, VT, VA
8pm: AL, MA, OK, TN
8:30pm: AR
8pm/9pm (depending on time zone): TX

caucuses:

7pm-midnight: AK
start at 8pm: MN
start at 9pm: CO

American Samoa

Texas should be moved to 7:00 PM EST. All but a few precincts close by then, and we should have a really good idea of what the final result there is with the information from the 7:00 PM portion of the state.

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Here's where I'm at with poll closing times for Super Tuesday.  Please tell me if I have any of these wrong (all times translated to Eastern time):

primaries:

7pm: GA, VT, VA
8pm: AL, MA, OK, TN
8:30pm: AR
8pm/9pm (depending on time zone): TX

caucuses:

7pm-midnight: AK
start at 8pm: MN
start at 9pm: CO

American Samoa

Texas should be moved to 7:00 PM EST. All but a few precincts close by then, and we should have a really good idea of what the final result there is with the information from the 7:00 PM portion of the state.

Here's the FAQ on the official site:

http://www.votetexas.gov/voting/

It says that the polls are open until 7pm.  But most of the state is in Central time, which means 8pm Eastern.  The El Paso region is in Mountain time, so those polls close at 7pm Mountain / 9pm Eastern.

Interesting. The Texas SoS website says the same thing.

So I guess Green Papers is wrong?

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Here's a list with hyperlinks to news/government websites with more information on poll closing times:

Primaries

7:00 PM - GA, VT, VA

8:00 PM - AL, MA, OK, TN, TX (mostly)

8:30 PM - AR

Caucuses

8:00 PM (beginning) - MN

7:00 PM to 12:00 AM - AK

Politico also has everything nicely summed up here.

That should be a comprehensive list. Please tell me if I got anything wrong.

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Dar, you are missing the Colorado Democratic Caucus.

Oops, I was too busy thinking about how not to include the Republican one

I'll fix it in the next post.

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Revised list with hyperlinks to news/government websites with more information on poll closing times:

Primaries

7:00 PM - GA, VT, VA

8:00 PM - AL, MA, OK, TN, TX (mostly)

8:30 PM - AR

Caucuses

8:00 PM (beginning) - MN

9:00 PM (beginning) - CO

7:00 PM to 12:00 AM - AK

Is everything right this time?

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Alright here is the final final list for Super Tuesday:

Primaries

7:00 PM - GA, VT, VA

8:00 PM - AL, MA, OK, TN, TX

8:30 PM - AR

Caucuses

2:00 PM to 7:00 PM - AS

8:00 PM (beginning) - MN

9:00 PM (beginning) - CO

7:00 PM to 12:00 AM - AK

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How will Colorado, North Dakota, and Wyoming be colored in on the map?

I'm thinking it will probably just be by plurality of delegates, but that will be kind of awkward because the popular vote winner in a lot of other states often ends up not winning a plurality of delegates.

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In any case, yes, it looks like online voting for the Utah GOP will be open from 7am - 11pm Mountain time, which is 9am - 1am ET:

https://ivotingcenter.us/utgop2016/

Not sure if they'll release any of the results while people are still voting online.  I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

Oh, fun. Can't wait to stay up that late.

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First look at caucus times for Holy Saturday:

Washington: Caucuses begin at 10am local time, which is 2pm ET
http://www.wa-democrats.org/page/2016-democratic-caucuses

Alaska: Caucuses run from 10am to 1pm local time, which is 2pm to 5pm ET
https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2016-alaska-district-caucus-pre-registration-tickets-20433090925

Hawaii: Begins at 1pm local time, which is 7pm ET
http://hawaiidemocrats.org/presidential-preference-poll/

thank god