Primary calendar / poll closing times and delegate allocation megathread (Christmas is saved!)

[Minnesota Mike]

2016 PRELIMINARY PRESIDENTIAL AND CONGRESSIONAL PRIMARY DATES from FEC

http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2016/2016pdates.pdf

[Minnesota Mike]

If you want to try to compile the Republican delegate rules for each state, go here:

Texas: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/TX-R
The update given in 2014 says that of the state’s 152 delegates, 75% will be allocated based on the results of the primary, while the remaining 25% will be allocated WTA at the state party convention.  But the details of how those 75% will be allocated remain a mystery, because the subsequent explanation on that page explains how it would work if all of the delegates were decided by the outcome of the primary, which is no longer the case.

Reading the actual rules, my interpretation is this:

155 total delegates.  It is 25% of those (38) that are chosen on a WTA basis at the state convention.

108 CD delegates elected based on the primary, 3 per each of the 36 CDs:
(a) Majority: Winner (3).
(b) Leader over 20%: Winner (2), Second (1)
(c) Nobody over 20%: Winner (1), Second (1), Third (1).

This leaves 3 slots for party leaders, and 6 at-large to be elected based on the primary.

It appears that the RPT rules assume that 25% of the delegates don't have to be based on the primary. But I can't find any such provision in the RNC rules.

Texas doesn't like proportional allocation of delegates, but was forced to use them because of an early primary. In 2012, when the primary was delayed until May, there was serious consideration to switching back to WTA.

The RNC rejected the Texas GOP plan to award 25% of the delegates at the convention. All delegates will be allocated by the Primary

http://www.texasgop.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/2014-Rules-as-amended-by-SREC-03.07.15-fixed-cd-06.18.15-with-RNC-Letter-on-Rule-38.pdf

(RNC letter to Texas GOP at the bottom of the PDF).

[Minnesota Mike]

OK, here is where I’m at on this, re: Republican delegate allocation.  Putting the states in rough categories, from vaguely most WTA to most proportional:

Statewide WTA:
AZ, DE, FL, NJ, DC, maybe NC (only if they successfully move their primary), maybe OH

WTA by congressional district, plus remaining delegates are WTA by statewide vote (all CDs get the same # of delegates, regardless of # of Republican votes cast in the district):
CA, MD, WI

WTA by congressional district, plus remaining delegates are proportional by statewide vote (all CDs get the same # of delegates, regardless of # of Republican votes cast in the district):
MI, VA, VT (lol…there’s only one CD), OH* (might switch to WTA statewide as above)

WTA by congressional district, plus remaining delegates are allocated at a state convention (all CDs get the same # of delegates, regardless of # of Republican votes cast in the district):
IN

Remaining primary states (rules vary from state to state, but the most common situation is some kind of proportionality, but many states do 2 to 1 splits with each CD giving 2 delegates to the winner of that CD, and 1 delegate to the second place finisher in that CD

Loophole primaries (delegates are directly elected in the primary….in the cases of IL and PA, the number of delegates actually varies based on party strength within the district):
IL, PA, and I think WV

Caucus states: In most cases, it’s actually unclear how this is going to work, because the new RNC rules mean that the straw polls taken on caucus day have to determine delegate allocation, and most of these states have never done this before.

You’ll have to go to FHQ’s blog to see which are the caucus states.  Everything else not listed would then be in the “remaining primary states” category.  I didn’t bother looking up the rules for US territories.  If you want to know what they do in Guam, do your own research, suckers.

I did this quickly, so I probably made some mistakes.

Many of these states will have to tweak their rules to get into compliance with the RNC. Example states holding contests between March 1 and March 14th will no longer be able to award any delegates on a WTA basis, even at the Congressional District level so a state such as VA will will have to change their rules.

[Minnesota Mike]

My understanding was that the pre-March 15th states could allocate delegates WTA by CD as long as the at-large delegates were allocated proportionally.  That's the way it worked with the pre-April 1st states in 2012.  Has that changed?

Not 100% positive but I believe the new RNC rules no longer allow WTA even at the CD between March 1 and March 14th.

BTW the 4 carve out states do not have to proportionally allocate their Delegates, South Carolina is WTA by CD and at large.  

FHQ on Proportionality

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2015/04/republican-proportionality-rules.html

[Minnesota Mike]

Iowa GOP Delegate allocation rules.

https://www.iowagop.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/RPI-Bylaws-Updated-2015.pdf

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[Minnesota Mike]

Today, the North Carolina legislature will vote on the conference committee version of the bill that would move the primary to March 15:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com.au/2015/09/winner-take-all-presidential-primary.html

Looks like the bill would also shift NC's delegate allocation to statewide WTA.

According to FHQ the bill passed both Houses and is on the way to the Governor.

Also to clarify only on the Republicans would be WTA. 

[Minnesota Mike]

I would like all state to allocate their delegates proportionally. Winner-take-all seems to be unfair to me, since you can easily have 4 to 6 candidates who have different appeal across a state. If FL would say that the statewide delegates are allocated by WTA and the district delegates are allocated 2x1 (winner gets 2, runner-up gets 1), that would be fairer.

Not sure what the fairest method is but the Republicans need some consistency in their allocation rules, the rules are allover the map. The Democrats system has it's flaws (Super Delegates)  but the basic framework is at least consistent.  Proportional both statewide and by CD, 15% threshold, 1/4 of delegates allocated statewide and 3/4 by CD.  Also the more Democratic CD's get more delegates.

[Minnesota Mike]

I would like all state to allocate their delegates proportionally. Winner-take-all seems to be unfair to me, since you can easily have 4 to 6 candidates who have different appeal across a state. If FL would say that the statewide delegates are allocated by WTA and the district delegates are allocated 2x1 (winner gets 2, runner-up gets 1), that would be fairer.

Not sure what the fairest method is but the Republicans need some consistency in their allocation rules, the rules are allover the map. The Democrats system has it's flaws (Super Delegates)  but the basic framework is at least consistent.  Proportional both statewide and by CD, 15% threshold, 1/4 of delegates allocated statewide and 3/4 by CD.  Also the more Democratic CD's get more delegates.

I think in the Republicans' view is that it's consistent with their governing philosophy.  They wouldn't want to dictate to the states what to do, and they certainly won't impose proportional representation on everyone.  Even this year's change, making sure that caucus states bind their delegates proportionally to the vote at the caucus, is a huge and controversial change -- but one that is going to give a real boost to transparency next year.

It should be noted that the Democratic system has a lot of flaws too, many of which we saw in 2008.  As you mentioned, there are way too many superdelegates, as you mentioned.  The method of allocating delegates proportionally by congressional district also means a hell of a lot comes down to whether your congressional district has an even or an odd number of delegates.  In a close, Clinton-vs-Obama style fight, those districts with an even number of delegates are likely to split the delegates equally regardless of who wins the district.

Agree on the flaws in the Democrats system but still makes more sense than the way Republicans pick their nominee.  Biggest Republican system flaw is in states like California that give the same number of delegates on a WTA basis to Nancy Pelosi's district as to Kevin McCarthy's.

[Minnesota Mike]

According to Twitter the Colorado GOP has set the Caucus for March 1.

https://twitter.com/eluning/status/647811303726170112

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[Minnesota Mike]

Official RNC schedule and delegate allocation rules (PDF)

https://www.gop.com/the-official-guide-to-the-2016-republican-nominating-process/