Primary calendar / poll closing times and delegate allocation megathread (Christmas is saved!) (user search)
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  Primary calendar / poll closing times and delegate allocation megathread (Christmas is saved!) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Primary calendar / poll closing times and delegate allocation megathread (Christmas is saved!)  (Read 34687 times)
politicallefty
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,247
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -9.22

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« on: September 05, 2015, 01:05:16 PM »

Is it known yet or is it currently possible to make a map of which states are winner-take-all vs proportional vs whatever for delegates right now (an incomplete map would be fine as well)?
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politicallefty
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,247
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -9.22

P P
« Reply #1 on: September 05, 2015, 09:10:18 PM »

I don't have time to do it today, but maybe someone else can.  On the Republican side, every state is different.  As Josh Putnam said on his blog though, "Arizona, Delaware, Florida, New Jersey, Utah and Washington DC as well as probably North Carolina and Ohio" will probably be the only statewide WTA states.  (In North Carolina's case, they can only do that if they move the primary to March 15.  The other ones listed are already on March 15 or later.)

There are plenty of other states though (including the biggest prize of all, California) that are "winner take most".  That is, WTA by congressional district.  So if someone won the state by 10 points or more, they'd probably win almost all the delegates, since they'd probably end up winning the bulk of the congressional districts.  Very few states are purely proportional.

On the Democratic side, though, every state is proportional, though with a 15% minimum threshold (either statewide or in a given congressional district) to receive any delegates.

I'm aware of Democratic rules, which are consistent across the board. Republicans rules haven't been consistent at all. I remember 2008 and 2012 where Northeastern states were virtually all winner-take-all, while Southern states were almost always proportional. (Not to make a process topic too political, but that format heavily favoured establishment candidates like McCain and Romney.) If that's changed significantly since last time, it's a pretty huge consideration in the race today. I'd be more than happy to make the map. I just need to know where to find the data as to each state's primary/caucus rules.
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