1992 if Perot Never Dropped Out

[© tweed]

well, Clinton got 53.41% of the two-party vote.  that's an Obama 2008 victory.  you can argue from there.  obviously states like Montana would flip to Bush.  but the takeaway story from 1992 was how poorly Bush (R) did: 37.5% as an incumbent. 

counterfactuals are silly, but the conclusion has to be that Bush very likely still would have lost.  even to a Massachusetts scarecrow like Tsongas.

[© tweed]

oh, if he never dropped out.  it would have been remarkable on Perot's part to draw Clinton below 270 EVs.  Perot may have won a handful of states.  his campaign was amazingly incompetent and blew a unique opportunity.