Proportional Results; Info on absolute majorities, order of parties, deposits
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Author Topic: Proportional Results; Info on absolute majorities, order of parties, deposits  (Read 4088 times)
minionofmidas
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« Reply #25 on: May 11, 2005, 03:44:26 AM »
« edited: May 11, 2005, 04:08:36 AM by Lewis Trondheim »

North Yorkshire (8)
Turnout 66.5
Con 43.7 - 4 (-1)
Lab 27.9 - 2 (0)
LD 24.7 - 2 (+1)
other 3.7

Humberside (10)
Turnout 56.0
Lab 41.0 - 4 (-3)
Con 32.9 - 4 (+1)
LD 20.8 - 2 (+2)
other 5.2
A swing of just over 250 votes from Con to Lab gives 5-3-2.

Sheffield (6)
Turnout 51.1
Lab 47.6 - 3 (-2)
LD 27.1 - 2 (+1)
Con 16.3 - 1 (+1)
other 9.0

Coalfield  (12)
Turnout 53.7
Lab 56.5 - 8 (-4)
Con 19.8 - 2 (+2)
LD 16.8 - 2 (+2)
other 6.9

Pennine Belt (8)
Turnout 62.9
Lab 42.0 - 4 (-4)
Con 31.5 - 3 (+3)
LD 17.7 - 1 (+1)
BNP 6.0 (Leeds and Coalfield results are at slightly over 3%. I didn't calculate Sheffield but it should be round about the same.)
other 2.9

Leeds / Bradford metro (12)
Turnout 59.9
Lab 46.1 - 6 (-4)
Con 26.6 - 3 (+2)
LD 20.0 - 3 (+2)
other 7.3

Yorkshire & Humberside
Lab 27
Con 17
LD 12
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #26 on: May 11, 2005, 04:27:23 AM »
« Edited: May 11, 2005, 05:24:05 AM by Lewis Trondheim »

Lincolnshire (7)
Turnout 62.8
Con 46.8 - 4 (-2)
Lab 29.5 - 2 (+1)
LD 17.4 - 1 (+1)
UKIP 5.3
other 1.0

Nottinghamshire (11)
Turnout 60.6
Lab 44.5 - 5 (-4)
Con 33.1 - 4 (+2)
LD 16.2 - 2 (+2)
other 6.3

Derbyshire (10 - although it has only about 10,000 registered voters less than Notts, and actually about 10,000 votes cast more than Notts)
Turnout 63.4
Lab 43.9 - 5 (-3)
Con 30.1 - 3 (+2)
LD 21.4 - 2 (+1)
other 4.6

Leicestershire (10)
Turnout 63.4
Con 37.4 - 4 (-1)
Lab 36.1 - 4 (-1)
LD 20.8 - 2 (+2)
other 5.8

Northamptonshire (6)
Turnout 64.4
Con 43.1 - 3 (-1)
Lab 37.5 - 2 (0)
LD 15.2 - 1 (+1)
other 4.2

East Midlands
Lab 18
Con 18
LD 8
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #27 on: May 11, 2005, 05:55:02 AM »
« Edited: May 13, 2005, 06:40:25 AM by Lewis Trondheim »

Cambridgeshire (7)
Turnout 63.0
Con 42.8 - 3 (-3)
LD 26.9 - 2 (+1)
Lab 25.8 - 2 (+2)
other 4.5

Norfolk (8)
Turnout 65.0
Con 39.9 - 3 (-1)
Lab 30.0 - 3 (0)
LD 25.4 - 2 (+1)
other 4.7
Just over a hundred votes swing from Lab to Con gives 4-2-2.

Suffolk (7)
Turnout 65.5
Con 41.7 - 3 (-2)
Lab 31.8 - 3 (+1)
LD 20.6 - 1 (+1)
other 6.0
Also tight, though not quite as tight as Norfolk.

Bedfordshire (6)
Turnout 61.6
Con 40.6 - 3 (0)
Lab 34.2 - 2 (-1)
LD 20.3 - 1 (+1)
other 4.9

Hertfordshire (11)
Turnout 66.2
Con 44.8 - 5 (-4)
Lab 30.3 - 4 (+2)
LD 21.4 - 2 (+2)
other 3.5
Yet another close Labour seat...a swing of 42 votes more would be enough for a sixth Con seat. The Tories would have been really really unlucky in the Eastern region under PR...weirdly unlucky.
EDIT - found minor error in my Hertfordshire totals. Con vote, total vote and total electorate overstated by 2700 each. Corrected. Seat distribution remains the same, but wouldn't be nearly as close.

Essex North (10)
Turnout 63.2
Con 46.3 - 5 ( - 3)
Lab 26.6 - 3 (+2)
LD 22.3 - 2 (+1)
other 4.7

Essex South East (7)
Turnout 58.7
Con 45.4 - 4 (-1)
Lab 32.5 - 2 (0)
LD 14.1 - 1 (+1)
other 8.0 (UKIP and BNP both polling strongish)

Eastern
Con 26
Lab 19
LD 11
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #28 on: May 11, 2005, 07:54:37 AM »
« Edited: May 11, 2005, 09:06:52 AM by Lewis Trondheim »

London
Central: Westminster, Ken & Chelsea, Camden, Islington, City. 7
East: Barking & Dag, Redbridge, Havering. 7
East Central: Hackney, Tower Hamlets, Newham, Waltham Forest. 9
North: Enfield, Barnet, Haringey. 8
North West: Brent, Harrow, Hillingdon. 8
West: Ealing, Ham & Ful, Hounslow. 6
Had a rethink.
East Central is dissolved. Waltham Forest goes with East (10), remainder goes with Central (13).
North West is also dissolved. Hillingdon and Brent go with West (12). Harrow goes with North (10).
No changes south of the river.

EDIT - Come to think of it, Wandsworth goes with South Central.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #29 on: May 11, 2005, 09:00:15 AM »
« Edited: May 11, 2005, 10:53:28 AM by Lewis Trondheim »

Outer London East (10)
Turnout 57.7
Lab 40.5 - 5 (0)
Con 36.6 - 4 (-1)
LD 15.2 - 1 (+1)
other 7.8

Outer London North (10)
Turnout 60.6
Lab 43.4 - 5 (-2)
Con 34.3 - 3 (+1)
LD 17.8 - 2 (+1)
other 4.5

Outer London West (12)
Turnout 57.0
Lab 42.3 - 6 (-2)
Con 31.1 - 4 (+1)
LD 21.1 - 2 (+1)
other 5.4

Central London (13)
Turnout 52.1
Lab 41.5 - 6 (-4)
Con 23.0 - 3 (+1)
LD 20.5 - 3 (+3)
Respect 8.3 - 1 (0)
Green 4.8
other 1.9

South Central London (11)
Turnout 53.7
Lab 46.5 - 6 (-3)
LD 23.5 - 3 (+2)
Con 23.0 - 2 (+1)
Green 4.9
other 2.1

Outer London South East (11, or you could call this Kentish London)
Turnout 61.5
Con 40.6 - 5 (-2)
Lab 33.9 - 4 (0)
LD 19.7 - 2 (+2)
other 5.9

Outer London South West (7)
Turnout 67.6
LD 39.5 - 3 (-2)
Con 35.7 - 3 (+2)
Lab 21.1 - 1 (0)
other 3.8

London
Lab 33
Con 24
LD 16
Respect 1
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #30 on: May 12, 2005, 03:55:38 AM »
« Edited: May 12, 2005, 03:59:44 AM by Lewis Trondheim »

Cornwall (5)
Turnout 66.7
LD 44.4 - 2 (-3)
Con 31.8 - 2 (+2)
Lab 15.9 - 1 (+1)
UKIP 5.0
other 2.9

Devon (11)
Turnout 66.0
Con 38.1 - 5 (0)
LD 32.7 - 4 (+1)
Lab 20.4  - 2 (-1)
UKIP 6.2
other 2.5
Labour helped (in real life) by the urban concentration of their voters, but -unlike in Cumbria- not by malapportionment: While Plymouth Sutton has the smallest electorate in Devon, Exeter has the 2nd largest.

Dorset (8)
Turnout 66.5
Con 44.1 - 4 (-2)
LD 32.8 - 3 (+2)
Lab 18.4 - 1 (0)
other 4.7

Wiltshire (6)
Turnout 66.7
Con 44.3 - 3 (-1)
LD 26.9 - 2 (+2)
Lab 24.3 - 1 (-1)
other 4.5
Labour win the two Swindon seats, come third everywhere in rural Wiltshire.

Somerset (6)
Turnout 67.0
Con 41.2 - 3 (0)
LD 39.5 - 2 (-1)
Lab 15.5 - 1 (+1)
other 3.8

Bristol (8)
Turnout 66.6
Lab 36.6 - 3 (-2)
Con 30.6 - 3 (+2)
LD 27.1 - 2 (0)
other 5.7

Gloucestershire (7)
Turnout 66.9
Con 40.3 - 3 (0)
LD 28.2 - 2 (0)
Lab 26.1 - 2 (0)
other 5.4
Will you just look at this beauty? :)

South West
Con 23
LD 17
Lab 11
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #31 on: May 12, 2005, 04:34:38 AM »

What do you expect when you pair 5 Labour marginals, one Tory marginal, and two utterly safe Tory seats?

Bob Marshall Andrews getting as screwed as surely he is by the boundary commision? Wink
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #32 on: May 12, 2005, 04:45:30 AM »

What do you expect when you pair 5 Labour marginals, one Tory marginal, and two utterly safe Tory seats?

Bob Marshall Andrews getting as screwed as surely he is by the boundary commision? Wink
Let's have a look at Kent constituency populations...
Ashford - 80K
Sittingbourne & Sheppey - 76K
Dartford - 74K
Sevenoaks - 74K
Maidstone & The Weald - 74K
Gillingham - 72K
Canterbury - 72K
Thanet North - 72K
Dover - 71K
Folkestone & Hythe - 71K
Chatham & Aylesford - 70K
Gravesham - 69K
Tonbridge & Malling - 68K
Medway - 67K
Faversham & Kent Mid - 66K
Tunbridge Wells - 65K
Thanet South - 63K
Average population roughly 71K. Let's say Kent keeps its 17 seats (although will it? Might lose one, come to think of it.)
The only constituencies really in need of redrawing are Ashford and Thanet South, perhaps Tunbridge Wells as well. No reason to change Medford, really.Dover and/or Canterbury will have to be changed because they're in between Ashford and Thanet South.
Of course, if they do abolish a seat then that's a different story.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #33 on: May 12, 2005, 04:54:05 AM »

Am I right in thinking that the Brighton & Hove seats are in East Sussex and that Sussex Mid is in West Sussex? If not, please correct me now[/b].
Also, Sussex Mid looks sorta urban on the map. It doesn't have much surface area. What town is it?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #34 on: May 12, 2005, 05:04:53 AM »

Average population roughly 71K. Let's say Kent keeps its 17 seats (although will it? Might lose one, come to think of it.)
The only constituencies really in need of redrawing are Ashford and Thanet South, perhaps Tunbridge Wells as well. No reason to change Medford, really.Dover and/or Canterbury will have to be changed because they're in between Ashford and Thanet South.
Of course, if they do abolish a seat then that's a different story.

IIRC Medway (which is renamed) loses some Labour wards to the Chatham seat.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #35 on: May 12, 2005, 05:05:56 AM »

Am I right in thinking that the Brighton & Hove seats are in East Sussex

Yep

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Yep

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Load of commuter villages etc. IIRC
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #36 on: May 12, 2005, 05:10:39 AM »
« Edited: May 12, 2005, 06:57:48 AM by Lewis Trondheim »

Kent North West (8)
Turnout 61.4
Con 44.0 - 4 (+1)
Lab 37.2 - 3 (-2)
LD 14.6 - 1 (+1)
other 4.2
What do you expect when you pair 5 Labour marginals, one Tory marginal, and two utterly safe Tory seats?

Kent South East (9)
Turnout 65.5
Con 47.4 - 5 (-2)
Lab 28.4 - 2 (0)
LD 19.6 - 2 (+2)
other 4.7
A swing of 45 votes or thereabouts gives 4-3-2.

East Sussex (8)
Turnout 65.7
Con 39.8 - 4 (+1)
LD 26.2 - 2 (+1)
Lab 25.4 - 2 (-2)
Green 5.5
other 3.2
It's not just tactical voting and the extreme concentration of the Labour vote...there's some malapportionment too.
Brighton & Hove seats and Hastings & Rye-
percentage of electorate: 47.7%
percentage of votes cast: 46.4%
percentage of the Labour vote: 70.8%
percentage of the Tory vote: 38.2%
percentage of the LD vote: 29.2%
percentage of the Green vote: 79.3%

West Sussex (8)
Turnout 64.6
Con 46.7 - 4 (-3)
LD 24.8 - 2 (+2)
Lab 22.5 - 2 (+1)
UKIP 4.9
other 1.1

Surrey (11)
Turnout 65.0
Con 50.5 - 6 (-5)
LD 28.4 - 3 (+3)
Lab 16.7 - 2 (+2)
other 4.4

Berkshire (8)
Turnout 63.6
Con 43.6 - 4 (-2)
LD 27.4 - 2 (+2)
Lab 24.0 - 2 (0)
other 5.0

Buckinghamshire (7)
Turnout 63.9
Con 47.8 - 4 (-2)
Lab 25.8 - 2 (+1)
LD 21.2 - 1 (+1)
other 5.2

Oxfordshire (6)
Turnout 65.5
Con 40.9 - 3 (-1)
LD 29.0 - 2 (+1)
Lab 23.4 - 1 (0)
other 6.8 (Greens and UKIP both highish)

Hampshire North & Southampton (10)
Turnout 63.6
Con 41.1 - 5 (0)
LD 32.7 - 3 (0)
Lab 22.2 - 2 (0)
other 3.9
Another beauty.

Portsmouth Wight & New Forest (8)
Turnout 62.2
Con 46.2 - 4 (-2)
LD 25.4 - 2 (+1)
Lab 23.4 - 2 (+1)
other 5.0

South East
Con 43
LD 20
Lab 20
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #37 on: May 12, 2005, 05:13:47 AM »

Average population roughly 71K. Let's say Kent keeps its 17 seats (although will it? Might lose one, come to think of it.)
The only constituencies really in need of redrawing are Ashford and Thanet South, perhaps Tunbridge Wells as well. No reason to change Medford, really.Dover and/or Canterbury will have to be changed because they're in between Ashford and Thanet South.
Of course, if they do abolish a seat then that's a different story.

IIRC Medway (which is renamed) loses some Labour wards to the Chatham seat.
doesn't make much sense at all. If anything it should gain wards from Gillingham which should gain from Sittingbourne & Sheppey. No reason to fiddle around with Chatham at all. What would the Earl of Chatham (aka the younger Pitt) say to that?
Unless of course they are abolishing a seat...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #38 on: May 12, 2005, 05:27:16 AM »

doesn't make much sense at all. If anything it should gain wards from Gillingham which should gain from Sittingbourne & Sheppey. No reason to fiddle around with Chatham at all. What would the Earl of Chatham (aka the younger Pitt) say to that?
Unless of course they are abolishing a seat...

Not entirely sure if they're scrapping a seat or not. But remember, the Boundary commision isn't always logical...
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #39 on: May 12, 2005, 05:40:00 AM »

doesn't make much sense at all. If anything it should gain wards from Gillingham which should gain from Sittingbourne & Sheppey. No reason to fiddle around with Chatham at all. What would the Earl of Chatham (aka the younger Pitt) say to that?
Unless of course they are abolishing a seat...

Not entirely sure if they're scrapping a seat or not. But remember, the Boundary commision isn't always logical...
Smiley
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #40 on: May 13, 2005, 04:15:23 AM »
« Edited: May 13, 2005, 05:49:50 AM by Lewis Trondheim »

Marches (7)
Turnout 69.1
Con 43.3 - 3 (-2)
LD 26.3 - 2 (+1)
Lab 25.4 - 2 (+1)
other 5.0

Worcestershire (7)
Turnout 65.9
Con 41.4 - 4 (+1)
Lab 30.1 - 2 (-1)
LD 17.4 - 1 (+1)
IKHH 5.9 - 0 (-1)
other 5.1
Given that the LD's didn't stand against the doctor, it might be fairer to assume IKHH and LD had a joint list:
Con 41.4 - 3 (0)
Lab 30.1 - 2 (-1)
LD/IKHH 23.3 - 2 (+1)
other 5.1
First result will be used in regional totals, though.

Warwickshire (8)
Turnout 62.9
Lab 41.1 - 4 (-2)
Con 35.9 - 3 (+1)
LD 17.8 - 1 (+1)
other 5.2

Birmingham (13)
Turnout 57.8
Lab 39.6 - 6 (-3)
Con 28.3 - 4 (+2)
LD 23.9 - 3 (+1)
other 8.3 (incl. highish UKIP, Respect showings)

Black Country (12)
Turnout 58.1
Lab 48.5 - 7 (-4)
Con 30.8 - 4 (+3)
LD 11.9 - 1 (+1). Easily the Libdem's weakest region.
BNP 4.5
other 4.2

Staffordshire (11/12...I'll probably update this thread to include the results of the Staffs S by-election as if it had been held on election day.)
Turnout 60.1
Lab 42.8 - 5 (-4)
Con 34.3 - 4 (+2)
LD 15.6 - 2 (+2)
other 7.3

West Midlands
Lab 26
Con 22
LD 10
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #41 on: May 13, 2005, 12:55:40 PM »


How much does Leominster distort the figures, btw?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #42 on: May 16, 2005, 06:56:15 AM »

Marches (7)
Turnout 69.1
Con 43.3 - 3 (-2)
LD 26.3 - 2 (+1)
Lab 25.4 - 2 (+1)
other 5.0

How much does Leominster distort the figures, btw?
Here's just Shropshire (5):
Turnout 68.2
Con 41.8 - 2 (-2)
Lab 30.8 - 2 (+1)
LD 23.0 - 1 (+1)
other 4.4
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jimrtex
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« Reply #43 on: May 17, 2005, 04:11:23 AM »

IIRC Medway (which is renamed) loses some Labour wards to the Chatham seat.
doesn't make much sense at all. If anything it should gain wards from Gillingham which should gain from Sittingbourne & Sheppey. No reason to fiddle around with Chatham at all. What would the Earl of Chatham (aka the younger Pitt) say to that?
Unless of course they are abolishing a seat...
The Unitary Authorities (except those in Berks) are treated as counties for purposes of defining constituencies.  The boundaries can be crossed for purposes of balancing population.  If a UA was anywhere near the ideal size, it could be given its own seat(s), even though an existing constituency might contained the former district and few wards of neighboring districts.   However, the boundary commission tended to apportion seats based on the old counties (including the new UAs).  If keeping the county and the UAs separate would result in more or less seats, the commission tended to cross UA boundaries.   (eg. a county with an electorate equivalent to 4.7 seats, plus two UAs each with an electorate equal to 0.8 seats, for a total of 6.3 seats, would probably be given 6 seats for the entire area, rather than 5 for the county and 1 for each of the UAs).
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #44 on: May 17, 2005, 04:19:50 AM »

What UA#s are there in Kent?
Also, what's the beef with Berkshire?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #45 on: May 17, 2005, 10:03:08 AM »


Medway Towns

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For some reason it was decided to abolish the county council and have all UA's.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #46 on: May 17, 2005, 10:08:33 AM »

So, Medway is the only UA in Kent? How large is the UA?
Also, why not treat all the Berkshire UAs as counties?
Finally, got a link to a current highest-tier-local-government map for me?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #47 on: May 17, 2005, 10:47:01 AM »

Pretty big. It's Rochester, Chatham, Gillingham, Rainham etc.
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