Record number of US citizens are leaving the US to live abroad

[Tender Branson]

I found these numbers, when reading the Fact Sheets of the Dept. of State:

FY 2015:

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FY 2014:

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FY 2013:

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...

Of course nobody knows the real number, because the US does not track emigration in any statistic, but there's also birth data in these releases:

FY 2014: Overseas births of U.S. citizens registered: 66,854

FY 2013: Overseas births of U.S. citizens registered: 68,314

FY 2013: Overseas births of U.S. citizens registered: 64,991

If we assume that the birth rate among US expats is similar to that of citizens in the US (1.25%), then it would point more to an actual number of 5.4 million Americans abroad.

But maybe Americans abroad just have fewer kids, or they are just not registering all of them with the Dept. of State because they are citizens of other countries ... which means the overall size of Americans abroad could be in line with the estimates.

[Mr. Morden]

We should have overseas congressional districts…

[Antonio the Sixth]

We should have overseas congressional districts…

Just imagine the potential for gerrymandering...

[muon2]

Dr. Michael McDonald has spent years building and maintaining a database of voting-eligible population (VEP) for all US elections, and broken down by state back to 2000. He gets his total number from the VAP by removing non-citizens and felons (in states where it matters) and adding in the overseas population. For example in Nov 2014 he has a US VAP of 245.7M and a US VEP of 227.2M, which includes 5.3 M overseas eligible.

[Tender Branson]

Dr. Michael McDonald has spent years building and maintaining a database of voting-eligible population (VEP) for all US elections, and broken down by state back to 2000. He gets his total number from the VAP by removing non-citizens and felons (in states where it matters) and adding in the overseas population. For example in Nov 2014 he has a US VAP of 245.7M and a US VEP of 227.2M, which includes 5.3 M overseas eligible.

He will have to adjust that though with the new numbers for FY 2014.

If there are now 8.7 Mio. Americans overseas and 77% of them are above 18 years (like the share among those in the US), then the voting-eligible number of Americans abroad is now 6.7 Mio. (+1.4 Mio.)

[dpmapper]

But maybe Americans abroad just have fewer kids, or they are just not registering all of them with the Dept. of State because they are citizens of other countries ... which means the overall size of Americans abroad could be in line with the estimates.

How many of the citizens abroad are kids that were born in the US to non-citizen parents and then taken back to their home countries?  Birth tourism (i.e., the phenomenon of pregnant women coming on a tourist visa, staying for a couple months, giving birth, and then flying home) would be one egregious example of this.  

[Tender Branson]

But maybe Americans abroad just have fewer kids, or they are just not registering all of them with the Dept. of State because they are citizens of other countries ... which means the overall size of Americans abroad could be in line with the estimates.

How many of the citizens abroad are kids that were born in the US to non-citizen parents and then taken back to their home countries?  Birth tourism (i.e., the phenomenon of pregnant women coming on a tourist visa, staying for a couple months, giving birth, and then flying home) would be one egregious example of this.  

Those would be registered within the US.

The factsheet clearly says:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[they don't love you like i love you]

This is one topic where opebo's take would be invaluable. Would love to hear him talk about fleeing The Bad Place.

[Cubby]

I'm sure a lot are American-born Baby Boomers retiring to Mexico and Central America. Lots of cheap beach-front property down there.

[jimrtex]

I found these numbers, when reading the Fact Sheets of the Dept. of State:

FY 2015:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

FY 2014:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

FY 2013:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

...

Of course nobody knows the real number, because the US does not track emigration in any statistic, but there's also birth data in these releases:

FY 2014: Overseas births of U.S. citizens registered: 66,854

FY 2013: Overseas births of U.S. citizens registered: 68,314

FY 2013: Overseas births of U.S. citizens registered: 64,991

If we assume that the birth rate among US expats is similar to that of citizens in the US (1.25%), then it would point more to an actual number of 5.4 million Americans abroad.

But maybe Americans abroad just have fewer kids, or they are just not registering all of them with the Dept. of State because they are citizens of other countries ... which means the overall size of Americans abroad could be in line with the estimates.

This report notes numerous problems estimating the overseas citizen population.  Many of the US citizens living overseas are 14th Amendment citizens, who moved when their non-citizen parents returned to their home country.

Counting the Uncountable: Overseas Americans

This paper provides technical challenges of estimates and has country specific details.  They say that the State Depeartment provides few details of their methodology (something about them being on a private server in Westchester County, New York, or some such nonsense).

A Model for Developing Estimates of  U.S. Citizens Abroad

Most of the growth is migration to areas that traditionally had not been a source of immigrants, such as South America, Africa, and South Asia, but have started to develop a pool of persons with ties to those countries.

The top countries in 2010 based on the paper's estimates:

Mexico 25.6%
Canada 8.5% (declined in absolute numbers by 12.1% between 2000 and 2010, and declined in share from 13.5% to 8.5%)
United Kingdom 5.1% (declining)
France 4.1%
Israel 3.1%
Germany 2.4% (declining, remember that the number include military personnel and dependents)
Australia 2.4%
Japan 2.2%
Taiwan 1.9%
India 1.8% (number quadrupled during decade).
Dominican Republic 1.8%
Ecuador 1.8% (it appears Los Angelenos are moving to Guayaquil and Phoenix)
China 1.7%
Philippines 1.6%
Brazil 1.6%
Italy 1.4% (declining slightly)
Poland 1.3% (big increase, may reflect those who escaped after WWII, been naturalized, and return in retirement for lower costs; plus those who escaped from behind the Iron Curtain.
Peru 1.2% (Los Angelenos move to Lima and Denver)
Argentina 1.1%
Venezuela 1.0%

On a percentage basis, the largest share of USA citizens appears to be St. Kitts and Nevis where it is closing in on 5% of the population (though no estimates are available for places like Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, or Cayman Islands).

The number of USA citizens in Austria has roughly doubled between to an estimated 16,884 in 2010, which would represent about 1/500 of the total population.  Vienna would be an attractive location, as would the ski areas if that were your interest.

[jimrtex]

We should have overseas congressional districts…

Includes Country Specific Estimates

Based on the estimates in the above, 6 districts.  But 7 might fit a bit better:

OS-1: Canada and British Isles 624K
OS-2&3: Mexico 1110K
OS-4: South America, Central America, and Caribbean 713K
OS-5: Mainland Europe 813K
OS-6: East and Southeast Asia 495K
OS-7: Miscellania: Near East, Oceania, South Asia, and Africa 571K

[Mr. Morden]

We should have overseas congressional districts…

Includes Country Specific Estimates

Based on the estimates in the above, 6 districts.  But 7 might fit a bit better:

OS-1: Canada and British Isles 624K
OS-2&3: Mexico 1110K
OS-4: South America, Central America, and Caribbean 713K
OS-5: Mainland Europe 813K
OS-6: East and Southeast Asia 495K
OS-7: Miscellania: Near East, Oceania, South Asia, and Africa 571K

So under this scheme, I'd be voting in a congressional district of Miscellania?  If East/Southeast Asia is a separate district, then I guess I wouldn't be voting in the same district as opebo, even though he's not all that far away in the grand scheme of things.

[jimrtex]

We should have overseas congressional districts…

Includes Country Specific Estimates

Based on the estimates in the above, 6 districts.  But 7 might fit a bit better:

OS-1: Canada and British Isles 624K
OS-2&3: Mexico 1110K
OS-4: South America, Central America, and Caribbean 713K
OS-5: Mainland Europe 813K
OS-6: East and Southeast Asia 495K
OS-7: Miscellania: Near East, Oceania, South Asia, and Africa 571K

So under this scheme, I'd be voting in a congressional district of Miscellania?  If East/Southeast Asia is a separate district, then I guess I wouldn't be voting in the same district as opebo, even though he's not all that far away in the grand scheme of things.

I was trying to balance the population.

If I moved Oceania to OS-6 that would make OS-6 629K and OS-7 to 437K, about a 43% difference, vs. 15% my original way.

I could swap Southeast Asia (Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia) for Oceania, which would reduce the difference to 6.6%, and would arguably be more compact, but IMO would have less COI.

The population of the four sub-regions

Far East Asia (Japan 95K, Philippines 68K, Korea 34K): 197K
China (Taiwan 82K, PRC 74K, Hong Kong 23K, Macau 1K): 180K
Southeast Asia (Thailand 31K, Vietnam 23K, Indonesia 20K, Malaysia 15K, Cambodia 15K, Singapore 8K, Laos 1K): 113K - Thailand and obepo may be atypical of this group.
Oceania (Oz 102K, NZ 27K, Pacific Islands 5K) 134K

[dpmapper]

But maybe Americans abroad just have fewer kids, or they are just not registering all of them with the Dept. of State because they are citizens of other countries ... which means the overall size of Americans abroad could be in line with the estimates.

How many of the citizens abroad are kids that were born in the US to non-citizen parents and then taken back to their home countries?  Birth tourism (i.e., the phenomenon of pregnant women coming on a tourist visa, staying for a couple months, giving birth, and then flying home) would be one egregious example of this.  

Those would be registered within the US.

You asked why citizens abroad have fewer kids.  My question in response is perfectly relevant: how many of those citizens abroad are still minors (only US citizens due to loose citizenship-granting policies), and therefore much less likely to be giving birth?

[Tender Branson]

But maybe Americans abroad just have fewer kids, or they are just not registering all of them with the Dept. of State because they are citizens of other countries ... which means the overall size of Americans abroad could be in line with the estimates.

How many of the citizens abroad are kids that were born in the US to non-citizen parents and then taken back to their home countries?  Birth tourism (i.e., the phenomenon of pregnant women coming on a tourist visa, staying for a couple months, giving birth, and then flying home) would be one egregious example of this.  

Those would be registered within the US.

You asked why citizens abroad have fewer kids.  My question in response is perfectly relevant: how many of those citizens abroad are still minors (only US citizens due to loose citizenship-granting policies), and therefore much less likely to be giving birth?

In this case, an age-breakdown of the Americans abroad would surely be helpful.

Do you think their breakdown skews much younger and older than the mainland average ?

And a much smaller working-age goup ?

Or is this birth tourism thing only a recent phenomenon that's not impacting the overall numbers that much ?

[Tender Branson]

We should have overseas congressional districts…

Includes Country Specific Estimates

Based on the estimates in the above, 6 districts.  But 7 might fit a bit better:

OS-1: Canada and British Isles 624K
OS-2&3: Mexico 1110K
OS-4: South America, Central America, and Caribbean 713K
OS-5: Mainland Europe 813K
OS-6: East and Southeast Asia 495K
OS-7: Miscellania: Near East, Oceania, South Asia, and Africa 571K

What's election turnout among Americans abroad like ?

I guess only 5% bother to vote in a major election ...

[Hatman 🍁]

It's probably much higher than 5%. But I don't know many US expats.

I can say my step-mother-in-law still votes in presidential elections.

[Tender Branson]

It's probably much higher than 5%. But I don't know many US expats.

I can say my step-mother-in-law still votes in presidential elections.

It would be interesting to see statistics from the 2012 Presidential election about how many overseas absentee ballots were received alltogether for all states ...

If we'd have that number, we could calculate a rough estimate of turnout among expat Americans.

[jimrtex]

We should have overseas congressional districts…

Includes Country Specific Estimates

Based on the estimates in the above, 6 districts.  But 7 might fit a bit better:

OS-1: Canada and British Isles 624K
OS-2&3: Mexico 1110K
OS-4: South America, Central America, and Caribbean 713K
OS-5: Mainland Europe 813K
OS-6: East and Southeast Asia 495K
OS-7: Miscellania: Near East, Oceania, South Asia, and Africa 571K

What's election turnout among Americans abroad like ?

I guess only 5% bother to vote in a major election ...

In 2010, 611K ballots were sent out, and 211K were returned of which 184K were counted.

Military voters were about 54% of those sent out, and about 50% of those returned.

I suspect that a major problem is that ballots can be requested electronically, sent electronically, but have to be returned by surface mail.

I found another report from a foundation advocating for overseas (civilian voters).  They had a lot of reports with percentages, but no totals.  Apparently, they had contacted overseas voters, but I didn't read how they found the people to be polled, so there could be a selection bias.

They showed 39% students; 8% retirees; 7% educators; 6% management; 6% medical.   So at least in their sample, those overseas could be considered temporary, even if it ends up being an extended period, and some don't return. 

Even retirees would probably expect to return when their health begins to fail, in order to be closer to family.  An exception might be those who had family ties, such as Poland.

Mexico was less than 2%, despite being such a large share of the overseas citizen population, while countries such as Canada, UK, and Germany had a representation among overseas voters that was two or three times their population share.

[Tender Branson]

We should have overseas congressional districts…

Includes Country Specific Estimates

Based on the estimates in the above, 6 districts.  But 7 might fit a bit better:

OS-1: Canada and British Isles 624K
OS-2&3: Mexico 1110K
OS-4: South America, Central America, and Caribbean 713K
OS-5: Mainland Europe 813K
OS-6: East and Southeast Asia 495K
OS-7: Miscellania: Near East, Oceania, South Asia, and Africa 571K

What's election turnout among Americans abroad like ?

I guess only 5% bother to vote in a major election ...

In 2010, 611K ballots were sent out, and 211K were returned of which 184K were counted.

Thanks for the numbers, Jim.

So, if 211K ballots from overseas were returned and we assume there were about 4.5 million overseas Americans in 2010 who were 18 years or older - then the turnout indeed was 5%.

Probably that number is higher for Presidential elections (7-8%).

[Tender Branson]

The number of USA citizens in Austria has roughly doubled between to an estimated 16,884 in 2010, which would represent about 1/500 of the total population.  Vienna would be an attractive location, as would the ski areas if that were your interest.

Those estimates are wrong though.

Because Austria has a CPR (Central Population Registry). Here are the actual numbers for Jan. 1, 2015:

US citizens living in Austria: 7.572 (with 3.888 living in Vienna)

http://www.statistik.at/wcm/idc/idcplg?IdcService=GET_PDF_FILE&RevisionSelectionMethod=LatestReleased&dDocName=064287

I guess the big difference between the US dept. numbers and the Austrian numbers are due to the fact that the US actually doesn't track emigration, while in Austria you have to register when moving in and out of a town within 3 days.

[jimrtex]

The number of USA citizens in Austria has roughly doubled between to an estimated 16,884 in 2010, which would represent about 1/500 of the total population.  Vienna would be an attractive location, as would the ski areas if that were your interest.

Those estimates are wrong though.

Because Austria has a CPR (Central Population Registry). Here are the actual numbers for Jan. 1, 2015:

US citizens living in Austria: 7.572 (with 3.888 living in Vienna)

http://www.statistik.at/wcm/idc/idcplg?IdcService=GET_PDF_FILE&RevisionSelectionMethod=LatestReleased&dDocName=064287

I guess the big difference between the US dept. numbers and the Austrian numbers are due to the fact that the US actually doesn't track emigration, while in Austria you have to register when moving in and out of a town within 3 days.

The link didn't work, and couldn't find anything on the web-site.

[Tender Branson]

The number of USA citizens in Austria has roughly doubled between to an estimated 16,884 in 2010, which would represent about 1/500 of the total population.  Vienna would be an attractive location, as would the ski areas if that were your interest.

Those estimates are wrong though.

Because Austria has a CPR (Central Population Registry). Here are the actual numbers for Jan. 1, 2015:

US citizens living in Austria: 7.572 (with 3.888 living in Vienna)

http://www.statistik.at/wcm/idc/idcplg?IdcService=GET_PDF_FILE&RevisionSelectionMethod=LatestReleased&dDocName=064287

I guess the big difference between the US dept. numbers and the Austrian numbers are due to the fact that the US actually doesn't track emigration, while in Austria you have to register when moving in and out of a town within 3 days.

The link didn't work, and couldn't find anything on the web-site.

For me, the link works.

Let's try the Excel version instead:

http://www.statistik.at/wcm/idc/idcplg?IdcService=GET_NATIVE_FILE&RevisionSelectionMethod=LatestReleased&dDocName=064287

...

Otherwise go here:

http://www.statistik.at/web_de/statistiken/menschen_und_gesellschaft/bevoelkerung/bevoelkerungsstruktur/bevoelkerung_nach_staatsangehoerigkeit_geburtsland/index.html

and click on the PDF/Excel files next to it:

"Bevölkerung am 1.1.2015 nach detaillierter Staatsangehörigkeit und Bundesland"

or

"Bevölkerung zu Jahresbeginn seit 2002 nach detaillierter Staatsangehörigkeit"

[jimrtex]

The number of USA citizens in Austria has roughly doubled between to an estimated 16,884 in 2010, which would represent about 1/500 of the total population.  Vienna would be an attractive location, as would the ski areas if that were your interest.

Those estimates are wrong though.

Because Austria has a CPR (Central Population Registry). Here are the actual numbers for Jan. 1, 2015:

US citizens living in Austria: 7.572 (with 3.888 living in Vienna)

http://www.statistik.at/wcm/idc/idcplg?IdcService=GET_PDF_FILE&RevisionSelectionMethod=LatestReleased&dDocName=064287

I guess the big difference between the US dept. numbers and the Austrian numbers are due to the fact that the US actually doesn't track emigration, while in Austria you have to register when moving in and out of a town within 3 days.

The link didn't work, and couldn't find anything on the web-site.

For me, the link works.

Let's try the Excel version instead:

http://www.statistik.at/wcm/idc/idcplg?IdcService=GET_NATIVE_FILE&RevisionSelectionMethod=LatestReleased&dDocName=064287

...

Otherwise go here:

http://www.statistik.at/web_de/statistiken/menschen_und_gesellschaft/bevoelkerung/bevoelkerungsstruktur/bevoelkerung_nach_staatsangehoerigkeit_geburtsland/index.html

and click on the PDF/Excel files next to it:

"Bevölkerung am 1.1.2015 nach detaillierter Staatsangehörigkeit und Bundesland"

or

"Bevölkerung zu Jahresbeginn seit 2002 nach detaillierter Staatsangehörigkeit"

The original PDF works now.  It was 404-land last night.

I pretty much skimmed the report.   I think what they did was develop a model that includes factors such as US taxpayers, SS beneficiaries, etc., that provide a measurement of the US citizen population, as well as measurements that provide an indication of the migration, such as size of the foreign-born population in the US, distance, total population, language, economic level, etc. and compared these to with estimates of the the US citizen population.

But I don't think they used the individual foreign government estimates (FGE) to make their estimates.  But rather the FGE were used to calibrate their overall model.

The estimate from the registry does not appear to take into account dual citizenship.  Someone who legally has US citizenship may not claim it, unless they want to move to the US, and even then might not disclose it to the foreign government.   In the case of Austria, dual citizens might include citizens who are citizens of other EU countries and the United States.  A German/US dual national living in Austria is likely to say that they are German citizen (and therefore an EU citizen).

It is likely that the the registry measures the growth in the US citizen population more accurately than it measures the total number of US citizens.   This assumes that the composition of the population is not changing dramatically over time.   The registry shows an 11% growth over 10 years, vs. a 100% growth for the FVAP estimate.

Looking at changes (2002-2015) in other countries in the Austrian registry, I noted the following:

Germans 75K to 170K.  I would expect a large number of Germans because of proximity and language but not such a large growth.  Are these pensioners?  Or people from the GDR?  It would take some time after 1995 to develop migration pipelines.

Growth in Bulgarians, Romanians, Slovakians, Hungarians, which would be based on EU expansion.  The growth in Poles, Croats, and Czechs, was less, but they were already present in large numbers.  There was a particular uptick in Greeks, Spaniards, and Portuguese toward the end of the period.  Huge increase in persons from the Baltics, but from a very low base.

Really big increases from the former Soviet Union, likely a combination of political and economic refugees.

And the really surprising one, the increase in Mongolians from 160 to 2,154.  Any ideas?

Incidentally, the only country I couldn't figure out was "Osttimor" which would have presumably been one of the easiest for you.

Is "ehem" a German word, or is it an abbreviaton?  As in "DR Congo, ehem Zaire"?

[Tender Branson]

The original PDF works now.  It was 404-land last night.

I pretty much skimmed the report.   I think what they did was develop a model that includes factors such as US taxpayers, SS beneficiaries, etc., that provide a measurement of the US citizen population, as well as measurements that provide an indication of the migration, such as size of the foreign-born population in the US, distance, total population, language, economic level, etc. and compared these to with estimates of the the US citizen population.

But I don't think they used the individual foreign government estimates (FGE) to make their estimates.  But rather the FGE were used to calibrate their overall model.

The estimate from the registry does not appear to take into account dual citizenship.  Someone who legally has US citizenship may not claim it, unless they want to move to the US, and even then might not disclose it to the foreign government.   In the case of Austria, dual citizens might include citizens who are citizens of other EU countries and the United States.  A German/US dual national living in Austria is likely to say that they are German citizen (and therefore an EU citizen).

It is likely that the the registry measures the growth in the US citizen population more accurately than it measures the total number of US citizens.   This assumes that the composition of the population is not changing dramatically over time.   The registry shows an 11% growth over 10 years, vs. a 100% growth for the FVAP estimate.

Looking at changes (2002-2015) in other countries in the Austrian registry, I noted the following:

Germans 75K to 170K.  I would expect a large number of Germans because of proximity and language but not such a large growth.  Are these pensioners?  Or people from the GDR?  It would take some time after 1995 to develop migration pipelines.

Growth in Bulgarians, Romanians, Slovakians, Hungarians, which would be based on EU expansion.  The growth in Poles, Croats, and Czechs, was less, but they were already present in large numbers.  There was a particular uptick in Greeks, Spaniards, and Portuguese toward the end of the period.  Huge increase in persons from the Baltics, but from a very low base.

Really big increases from the former Soviet Union, likely a combination of political and economic refugees.

And the really surprising one, the increase in Mongolians from 160 to 2,154.  Any ideas?

Incidentally, the only country I couldn't figure out was "Osttimor" which would have presumably been one of the easiest for you.

Is "ehem" a German word, or is it an abbreviaton?  As in "DR Congo, ehem Zaire"?

You might be right that some of the Germans or others living here could also have US dual citizenship, but I guess there are not all too many of them. Still, the number provided by the US agency seems to be overblown, because the Austrian registry is very accurate and up-to-date and STATISTICS Austria conducts a mini-census each year with strict quality controls to get accurate registry figures.

As for the increase in Germans, there are mostly 3 reasons for that: The first is that many students from Germany moved to Austria in the past 10 years, because Germany has the numerus clausus, whereas Austria does not. It means that in Germany, universities only accept students with best grades, whereas Austria has free university access for every high school student that passed the final exams. We call the German students who come here to study "numerus clausus refugees" Another reason are retirees who prefer the Austrian landscape to the grey Ruhrpott. A third reason is labour: Many east-Germans come to Austria for work (but in recent years they stay increasingly in Germany, because the labour market is now much better in Germany than in Austria).

The strong immigration from Eastern Europe pretty much explains itself with the EU East Expansion from 2004-now.

The uptick from former Soviet countries are mostly Chechens, of which many came to Austria after the Chechen Wars, also many Georgians and Ukrainians recently.

I have no clue why Mongolians increased that much ...

Osttimor = East Timor

And in "DR Congo, ehem Zaire" - the word ehem. is an abbreviation for "ehemalig" (which means "former").