But maybe Americans abroad just have fewer kids, or they are just not registering all of them with the Dept. of State because they are citizens of other countries ... which means the overall size of Americans abroad could be in line with the estimates.
How many of the citizens abroad are kids that were born in the US to non-citizen parents and then taken back to their home countries? Birth tourism (i.e., the phenomenon of pregnant women coming on a tourist visa, staying for a couple months, giving birth, and then flying home) would be one egregious example of this.