What is Ted Cruz's Strategy?

[Leinad]

Here's my opinion on Ted Cruz's chances to win the nomination: he's the only candidate who can easily get the entire conservative spectrum. He won't get the entire Rand Paul base, of course, but the more conservatarian voters would look to Cruz before most others. And while he also might not get the Mike Huckabee base at first, with Huckabee and Santorum getting that, he's socially conservative enough to get them, too.

From Tea Party to Focus on the Family, he can bring together the full spectrum of conservatives. He probably won't get moderates or establishment support, but his anti-establishment message could help him get the disaffecteds (i.e. everyone unironically saying "Trump" in the polls right now--this is a faction, too, my dad belongs to it, it just doesn't fit in the spectrum).

If he can survive in the debates and vetting season (it won't be easy, both liberals and the establishment Republicans loathe him, but I think he's objectively better at talking and debating than lots of the other guys) he'll be a contender just because he'll pick up a lot of the vote when guys like Santorum, Jindal, Perry, Trump, Carson, and maybe Huckabee falter. It will be interesting to see if Walker or Rubio try to position themselves as broad-spectrum yet more "electable" conservatives to take some of that vote from Cruz, or if they try to position themselves as slightly-more-conservative moderates to take some of the vote, money, and media support from Jeb.

Secondly, it's to run to the right but everyone knows he'd lose a general election and therefore won't be supporting him in the primaries.

But would he? Romney, McCain, and Dole all were more moderate, and lost. Dubya technically lost in 2000. The last time a Republican who wasn't the incumbent President or VP won a general election was Ronald Reagan's landslide win in 1980--and Reagan was a conservative.

Lots of swing-voters aren't Republican vs. Democrat moderates, but rather conservatives or liberals where they'll swing between Lesser-Of-Two-Evils vs. 3rd party/not voting. And I also think that lots of Republican vs. Democrat swing-voters don't always support moderates over non-moderates--"Reagan Democrats" is a thing, "Romney Democrats" isn't a thing.

I think that the best candidate will have the best chance of winning. Someone who can both energize the apathetic base and win the R vs. D swing voters. This is true for both parties. Is Cruz that guy? Probably not. But I don't think it's, say, a moderate named--of all things--Bush.

Kasich Democrats number 420,000/1,920,000 of his voters in 2014. In Ohio.

I never said moderates couldn't do well, or that you need a conservative to win as a Republican. I was just pointing out, as CrabCake did, that a moderate doesn't necessarily win swing voters. Everyone seems to think that a guy like Cruz would lose all the moderate vote, and a guy like Jeb would win that and also win all the same conservative vote that Cruz would, and that's simply not true.

This thread is hilarious. You have Low IQ democrats calling Cruz stupid. LOL.

The average Democrat has a higher IQ than the average Republican. This is objective.

Prove me wrong.

And this has nothing to do with anything I said.

No, it doesn't, although it was also off-topic to say that it's "Low IQ" Democrats calling Cruz stupid. Unless Eric is lying, his IQ is pretty darn high. But he just attaches the smart-stupid axis to the agrees-disagrees axis a little too much.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

We are all political sorts; and therefore we naturally overemphasise the importance of ideology in voting choice. Reagan's landslides weren't because the country inexplicably moved three points on the political axis - it was because St Ronnie was a born communicator. That's why Ohioans can broadly approve of both their senators even though one is anti-free-trade populist and the other a rightist drone.

Politics is about image and posturing and I'm not saying that to make some hamfisted-pointed about "DUMB VOTERS". Indeed, thank god it's not about ideology. Elections would be dull as hell for one.

[Rockefeller GOP]

This thread is hilarious. You have Low IQ democrats calling Cruz stupid. LOL.

The average Democrat has a higher IQ than the average Republican. This is objective.

Prove me wrong.

Prove yourself right.  If we refute your claim, it'll inevitably lead to us being called racist, classist or whatever, but I'll give it a try:

Postgrad, urban White liberals are a comically small portion of your actual party, and I'll guess that wealthy suburbanites and business folk (a competitively larger chunk of the GOP) have a higher IQ than inner-city poor people and union members.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

As it happens, I was listening to this Cruz interview this morning and he very briefly describes his electoral strategy to Bill Bennett.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20nIhetKT3s&t=5m50s

[dudeabides]

This thread is hilarious. You have Low IQ democrats calling Cruz stupid. LOL.

I am an average to slightly above averaged IQ Republican calling Cruz stupid.

The RINOs in your signature are smarter than him even, they just are more out of touch with reality in foreign affairs.

[Cory]

As it happens, I was listening to this Cruz interview this morning and he very briefly describes his electoral strategy to Bill Bennett.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20nIhetKT3s&t=5m50s

Stopped listening when he mentioned the "millions of conservatives who are staying home" myth.

[Likely Voter]

Where is Cruz getting his numbers? 90 million evangelicals? Pew estimates there are 62M, and 1/4 of them are non-white.  As a portion of the adult population white evangelicals are very much over-represented in terms of voter turnout.  Conservatives need to stop lying to themselves about this. You cant win by squeezing more out of the base, you have to appeal to moderates and non-whites. There is no other way to win the White House.

[YaBoyNY]

This thread is hilarious. You have Low IQ democrats calling Cruz stupid. LOL.

The average Democrat has a higher IQ than the average Republican. This is objective.

Prove me wrong.

Prove yourself right.  If we refute your claim, it'll inevitably lead to us being called racist, classist or whatever, but I'll give it a try:

Postgrad, urban White liberals are a comically small portion of your actual party, and I'll guess that wealthy suburbanites and business folk (a competitively larger chunk of the GOP) have a higher IQ than inner-city poor people and union members.

They're really not as small of a portion of the party as Republicans like to believe. At this point, somewhere between 50 and 60% of the Democratic voter base is white. And the majority of those are, at this point, white liberals. Whether they be urban, suburban, or rural.

Even your average Democrat who isn't a liberal is smarter than your average Republican.

[Rockefeller GOP]

This thread is hilarious. You have Low IQ democrats calling Cruz stupid. LOL.

The average Democrat has a higher IQ than the average Republican. This is objective.

Prove me wrong.

Prove yourself right.  If we refute your claim, it'll inevitably lead to us being called racist, classist or whatever, but I'll give it a try:

Postgrad, urban White liberals are a comically small portion of your actual party, and I'll guess that wealthy suburbanites and business folk (a competitively larger chunk of the GOP) have a higher IQ than inner-city poor people and union members.

They're really not as small of a portion of the party as Republicans like to believe. At this point, somewhere between 50 and 60% of the Democratic voter base is white. And the majority of those are, at this point, white liberals. Whether they be urban, suburban, or rural.

Even your average Democrat who isn't a liberal is smarter than your average Republican.

Again, you're the one making a baseless claim and asking others to prove you wrong ... You realize how ridiculous that is?

[cinyc]

This thread is hilarious. You have Low IQ democrats calling Cruz stupid. LOL.

The average Democrat has a higher IQ than the average Republican. This is objective.

Prove me wrong.

Prove yourself right.  If we refute your claim, it'll inevitably lead to us being called racist, classist or whatever, but I'll give it a try:

Postgrad, urban White liberals are a comically small portion of your actual party, and I'll guess that wealthy suburbanites and business folk (a competitively larger chunk of the GOP) have a higher IQ than inner-city poor people and union members.

They're really not as small of a portion of the party as Republicans like to believe. At this point, somewhere between 50 and 60% of the Democratic voter base is white. And the majority of those are, at this point, white liberals. Whether they be urban, suburban, or rural.

Even your average Democrat who isn't a liberal is smarter than your average Republican.

Again, you're the one making a baseless claim and asking others to prove you wrong ... You realize how ridiculous that is?

Fact: People who identify as Republicans have, on average, a 2-5 point higher verbal IQs than self-identified Democrats.
Fact: People who vote Republican have, on average, a 2 point higher verbal IQs over those who vote Democratic.

So your average Republican is smarter than your average Democrat.

[Bull Moose Base]

This thread is hilarious. You have Low IQ democrats calling Cruz stupid. LOL.

The average Democrat has a higher IQ than the average Republican. This is objective.

Prove me wrong.

Prove yourself right.  If we refute your claim, it'll inevitably lead to us being called racist, classist or whatever, but I'll give it a try:

Postgrad, urban White liberals are a comically small portion of your actual party, and I'll guess that wealthy suburbanites and business folk (a competitively larger chunk of the GOP) have a higher IQ than inner-city poor people and union members.

They're really not as small of a portion of the party as Republicans like to believe. At this point, somewhere between 50 and 60% of the Democratic voter base is white. And the majority of those are, at this point, white liberals. Whether they be urban, suburban, or rural.

Even your average Democrat who isn't a liberal is smarter than your average Republican.

Again, you're the one making a baseless claim and asking others to prove you wrong ... You realize how ridiculous that is?

Fact: People who identify as Republicans have, on average, a 2-5 point higher verbal IQs than self-identified Democrats.
Fact: People who vote Republican have, on average, a 2 point higher verbal IQs over those who vote Democratic.

So your average Republican is smarter than your average Democrat.

Funny that higher IQ correlates with being socially and economically liberal and voting Republican, when there's an argument that being socially and economically liberal while voting Republican would suggest a low IQ.

Anyway, love or hate him, Cruz is obviously incredibly smart. I think he once hoped to channel the same energy that propelled Walker to his Iowa polling lead and Trump to his national and early state strength. At this point, maybe he's counting on them destroying each other and being poised to pick up the pieces. The flavors of the month last cycle were more or less all conservative until Romney finally won the slog but Cain didn't take out Perry, Gingrich didn't take out Cain, and Santorum didn't take out Gingrich. I assume that's why Cruz is refraining from attacking Trump; if the media or GOP establishment destroys him, and Walker implodes, he'll be on standby.

[dudeabides]

This thread is hilarious. You have Low IQ democrats calling Cruz stupid. LOL.

The average Democrat has a higher IQ than the average Republican. This is objective.

Prove me wrong.

Prove yourself right.  If we refute your claim, it'll inevitably lead to us being called racist, classist or whatever, but I'll give it a try:

Postgrad, urban White liberals are a comically small portion of your actual party, and I'll guess that wealthy suburbanites and business folk (a competitively larger chunk of the GOP) have a higher IQ than inner-city poor people and union members.

They're really not as small of a portion of the party as Republicans like to believe. At this point, somewhere between 50 and 60% of the Democratic voter base is white. And the majority of those are, at this point, white liberals. Whether they be urban, suburban, or rural.

Even your average Democrat who isn't a liberal is smarter than your average Republican.

Again, you're the one making a baseless claim and asking others to prove you wrong ... You realize how ridiculous that is?

Fact: People who identify as Republicans have, on average, a 2-5 point higher verbal IQs than self-identified Democrats.
Fact: People who vote Republican have, on average, a 2 point higher verbal IQs over those who vote Democratic.

So your average Republican is smarter than your average Democrat.

Funny that higher IQ correlates with being socially and economically liberal and voting Republican, when there's an argument that being socially and economically liberal while voting Republican would suggest a low IQ.

Anyway, love or hate him, Cruz is obviously incredibly smart. I think he once hoped to channel the same energy that propelled Walker to his Iowa polling lead and Trump to his national and early state strength. At this point, maybe he's counting on them destroying each other and being poised to pick up the pieces. The flavors of the month last cycle were more or less all conservative until Romney finally won the slog but Cain didn't take out Perry, Gingrich didn't take out Cain, and Santorum didn't take out Gingrich. I assume that's why Cruz is refraining from attacking Trump; if the media or GOP establishment destroys him, and Walker implodes, he'll be on standby.

I'm going to take this opportunity go GUESS the IQ of everyone running

Jeb Bush 140
Scott Walker 115
Carly Fiorina 120
Chris Christie 105
Rick Santorum 100
Mike Huckabee 105
George Pataki 101
Lindsey Graham 110
Jim Gilmore 110
Rick Perry 95
Ted Cruz 93
Ben Carson 105
Rand Paul 90
Bobby Jindal 165
Marco Rubio 115
John Kasich 110
Donald Trump 88
Hillary Clinton 104
Martin O'Malley 100
Bernie Sanders 120
Jim Webb 110
Lincoln Chaffee 130

[Clark Kent]

Carson's a neurosurgeon. Whatever you think of his politics, there's no denying that he is very smart, quite possibly the smartest person running.

[Leinad]

This IQ debate is silly. Who cares if Republicans or Democrats are smarter? That's not even what DeadPrez meant, I don't think, by "low IQ Democrats"--I think he was saying that those Democrats in particular were low IQ (inaccurate, but still), not that Democrats in general have low IQs. And no matter what the average IQ is, it's a fact that there are smart Democrats, smart Republicans, stupid Democrats, and stupid Republicans. Let's get less partisan about this. (However, there aren't stupid Libertarians, of course.)

Stopped listening when he mentioned the "millions of conservatives who are staying home" myth.

People stay home everywhere on the political spectrum. There was 58.8% turnout in the last election, so that's 41.2% of eligible voters who stayed home. Surely some of them are conservative?

Is it a myth that everyone staying home is a conservative? Of course. I bet if there was mandatory voting Obama would've beat Romney by even more. But it's a fact that moderate and/or establishment candidates have been consistently failing. The last Republican to win the popular vote who wasn't the incumbent President or VP was Reagan--not really an establishment moderate.

And in addition to getting more conservative voters, a conservative-leaning candidate could also energize the base enough to win moderates. As in, a conservative voter might simply vote for Romney reluctantly, but actually campaign for someone like Cruz, which could help with swing voters. Will it overcompensate for their lack of ideological appeal to centrists? Not sure.

We are all political sorts; and therefore we naturally overemphasise the importance of ideology in voting choice. Reagan's landslides weren't because the country inexplicably moved three points on the political axis - it was because St Ronnie was a born communicator. That's why Ohioans can broadly approve of both their senators even though one is anti-free-trade populist and the other a rightist drone.

Politics is about image and posturing and I'm not saying that to make some hamfisted-pointed about "DUMB VOTERS". Indeed, thank god it's not about ideology. Elections would be dull as hell for one.

THIS.

Moderates don't necessarily get out moderates. Conservatives don't necessarily energize the conservative base. But a good candidate can speak to both. Most voters don't care much about where someone lies on the Nolan Chart. The reality of voters caring less about ideology is magnified by the fact that the media is more focused on nonsense diversions (the birther crap, pick-your-favorite-Romney-controversy) than boring things like "issues."

[Leinad]

I'm going to take this opportunity go GUESS the IQ of everyone running

Jeb Bush 140
Scott Walker 115
Carly Fiorina 120
Chris Christie 105
Rick Santorum 100
Mike Huckabee 105
George Pataki 101
Lindsey Graham 110
Jim Gilmore 110
Rick Perry 95
Ted Cruz 93
Ben Carson 105
Rand Paul 90
Bobby Jindal 165
Marco Rubio 115
John Kasich 110
Donald Trump 88
Hillary Clinton 104
Martin O'Malley 100
Bernie Sanders 120
Jim Webb 110
Lincoln Chaffee 130

Wait...Perry over Rand? Walker over Carson?

Still though, nice job on the list. It's inaccurate, but fun to look at. Especially when only Jindal has one higher than mine (again, that means little--I'm probably just good at taking IQ tests).

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Yeah, these numbers aren't right

Jeb Bush 140 TOO HIGH
Scott Walker 115 PROBABLY A BIT TOO HIGH
Carly Fiorina 120 PROBABLY A BIT TOO HIGH
Chris Christie 105 MAYBE ABOUT RIGHT
Rick Santorum 100 MAYBE ABOUT RIGHT
Mike Huckabee 105 MAYBE ABOUT RIGHT
George Pataki 101 A BIT TOO LOW
Lindsey Graham 110  MAYBE ABOUT RIGHT
Jim Gilmore 110 NO IDEA
Rick Perry 95 MAYBE
Ted Cruz 93 TOO LOW
Ben Carson 105 TOO LOW
Rand Paul 90 TOO LOW
Bobby Jindal 165 SOMEWHAT TOO HIGH
Marco Rubio 115 MAYBE ABOUT RIGHT
John Kasich 110 MAYBE ABOUT RIGHT
Donald Trump 88  PROBABLY A BIT TOO LOW
Hillary Clinton 104  TOO LOW
Martin O'Malley 100 TOO LOW
Bernie Sanders 120 MAYBE ABOUT RIGHT
Jim Webb 110 MAYBE ABOUT RIGHT
Lincoln Chaffee 130 PROBABLY A BIT TOO HIGH

[Bull Moose Base]

We are all political sorts; and therefore we naturally overemphasise the importance of ideology in voting choice. Reagan's landslides weren't because the country inexplicably moved three points on the political axis - it was because St Ronnie was a born communicator. That's why Ohioans can broadly approve of both their senators even though one is anti-free-trade populist and the other a rightist drone.

Politics is about image and posturing and I'm not saying that to make some hamfisted-pointed about "DUMB VOTERS". Indeed, thank god it's not about ideology. Elections would be dull as hell for one.

Reagan was a talented deliverer of speeches but mostly, like Obama and Bill Clinton, he was the out party nominee is a bad economy. I think even Ted Cruz could win in that situation. The only example I can think of where the less moderate nominee cost the out party an election is 2000* where McCain probably would have won uncontroversially whereas Bush, less moderate but running as one, lost the popular vote and arguably lost the electoral vote with accurate counting. But even in that example, McCain probably would have only outperformed Bush by 1-2 points and it would only have made a difference because the election was so close.