Challenge: Get Vermont to vote Republican again

[Mechaman]

Now, as someone who has pointed out the demographic changes before, I don't believe that should be interpreted as the sole major reason why Vermont is voting Democratic.  In terms of ethnicity French/French Canadian, English, and "American" still make up almost half the population, there are a lot less Jewish people than in neighboring Massachusetts, and Vermont is probably the least Catholic it has been in half a century.  What is changing is not only that more people are moving in, but that the people moving in are influencing many of the people (especially younger Vermonters) who are "native" to that state.  I believe this would explain, for instance, the 34% of the population that reports as having "No Religion".

But anyway, Vermont has been and always will be an odd duck.  Back in the early days of the Republic when the rest of New England was heavily Federalist Vermont had a tendency to be lean DR.  Hell, Vermont even elected people who would have no business being a dog catcher in Massachusetts much less an elected US Congressman at the time.

[Figueira]

Now, as someone who has pointed out the demographic changes before, I don't believe that should be interpreted as the sole major reason why Vermont is voting Democratic.  In terms of ethnicity French/French Canadian, English, and "American" still make up almost half the population, there are a lot less Jewish people than in neighboring Massachusetts, and Vermont is probably the least Catholic it has been in half a century.  What is changing is not only that more people are moving in, but that the people moving in are influencing many of the people (especially younger Vermonters) who are "native" to that state.  I believe this would explain, for instance, the 34% of the population that reports as having "No Religion".

But anyway, Vermont has been and always will be an odd duck.  Back in the early days of the Republic when the rest of New England was heavily Federalist Vermont had a tendency to be lean DR.  Hell, Vermont even elected people who would have no business being a dog catcher in Massachusetts much less an elected US Congressman at the time.

Yes, this is an underrated reason for Vermont's (and the surrounding area's) political change.

[jeron]

Vermont isn't just more Democratic than it's ever been, it's more liberal.  There's a sizable "Take Back Vermont" movement, and if you talk to older Vermonters (keep in mind even in the biggest Democratic landslides, you have about 40% supporting the Republican), you'll notice they're not as pleased with the trend of the '70s, '80s and '90s, which saw liberal New Yorkers (Howard Dean, anyone?) and folks escaping Taxachusetts and Connecticut to go to the scenic and rather "undisturbed" Vermont.  There have also been quite a few VT Republicans and former Republicans who have been turned off by social conservatives gaining more influence in the GOP.  Combine those two things and you get a Democratic VT.

So, you'd need BOTH of these to happen to get VT back in the Republican column:

1) The GOP to become significantly more moderate on cultural and social issues.

2) An influx of more conservative voters and/or more liberal voters moving away.

Here's what I don't get...if it's really demographic changes during that time that caused VT to go Dem, how did Johnson not only win it in '64, but win it by a bigger margin than his national one?

I think demographic changes played some role, but something else happened.

Something else did happen, and that was my second point.  But people can't make statements like "VT went solid Dem in '64" or "MS went solid GOP in '72" with any real point attached because so did every other state...

But it's of interest whether a state goes for the party by a bigger or smaller margin than the nation as a whole did. Vermont had never voted for a Democrat, but voted for LBJ over Goldwater by a 32-point margin as opposed to the national 23-point margin. If LBJ'S Vermont margin had been the same or less than his national margin, then I agree it wouldn't really be of interest. Something about Goldwater really turned off New England voters a generation before New England would actually be thought of as Democratic region.

Well, Goldwater, though Western, was perceived as a candidate of the South. And that is poison in Vermont.

Of course, and therefore Bill Clinton carried the state twice.