Prediction: will Iran be a nuclear power in the next ten years?
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  Prediction: will Iran be a nuclear power in the next ten years?
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Author Topic: Prediction: will Iran be a nuclear power in the next ten years?  (Read 800 times)
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CrabCake
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« on: July 07, 2015, 01:49:30 AM »

Your thoughts?
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #1 on: July 07, 2015, 03:08:25 AM »

No.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #2 on: July 07, 2015, 08:04:54 AM »

If Iran makes a nuke, they lose their bargaining chip.

Giving up a built nuke would be too humiliating to agree to. Giving up the program is a possibility.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #3 on: July 07, 2015, 08:57:12 AM »

Giving up a built nuke would be too humiliating to agree to.

South Africa managed to do it without 'humiliation'.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #4 on: July 07, 2015, 09:46:29 AM »

Giving up a built nuke would be too humiliating to agree to.

South Africa managed to do it without 'humiliation'.

They were also allies with the USA in a world where basically everyone else hated them. They gave up the nukes a year after they reached an agreement with Cuba to stop sending troops to Namibia.

South Africa doesn't really compare to Iran so much as it compares to Israel in a world where they somehow manage to use diplomacy to be 100% safe from their neighbors
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dead0man
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« Reply #5 on: July 07, 2015, 11:00:35 AM »

South Africa doesn't really compare to Iran so much as it compares to Israel in a world where they somehow manage to use diplomacy to be 100% safe from their neighbors
wtf?

In what world do you live in where Israel is 100% safe from it's neighbors?  And diplomacy is what keeps it that way?!  HA!

Unless I'm missing an angle or it's a joke.....I don't know.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #6 on: July 07, 2015, 11:25:29 AM »

South Africa doesn't really compare to Iran so much as it compares to Israel in a world where they somehow manage to use diplomacy to be 100% safe from their neighbors
wtf?

In what world do you live in where Israel is 100% safe from it's neighbors?  And diplomacy is what keeps it that way?!  HA!

Unless I'm missing an angle or it's a joke.....I don't know.

You've got the wrong end of the the stick hun, BK was saying that South Africa was comparable to a completely hypothetical Israel with friendly neighbours.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #7 on: July 07, 2015, 12:12:04 PM »

It's still a bizarre argument as South Africa has never been at threat from any of its neighbours.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #8 on: July 07, 2015, 12:33:16 PM »

SA only ended its nuclear program when it was clear Apartheid was done for. If there was a revolution in Iran right now, of course they would be more willing to give up nukes. A revolution isn't like though, so they wouldn't do it. Just like SA wouldn't have give up its nukes in, say, 1980.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #9 on: July 07, 2015, 02:14:18 PM »

It's still a bizarre argument as South Africa has never been at threat from any of its neighbours.

Maybe not directly, but the apartheid regime was surrounded by pro-Soviet nations to its north.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #10 on: July 07, 2015, 02:19:43 PM »

While Iran has extensively researched the possibility of acquiring nuclear weapons, our own intelligence agencies have determined that they wrapped it up in 2003. So all this paranoia about Iran is just that: paranoia, mostly from Israel, that has repeated ad nauseum that Iran is only a few years away from getting a nuke for over 20 years.

Of course, Ahmedinejad(SP?)'s suicidal rhetoric didn't help, but 1.) he's gone, and 2.) the Ayatollahs are the real powers in Iran, not the President.


So no, unless we/Israel bombs Iran and gives them a reason to get a nuke.

Exactly. The only person who cares about Iran's nuke program is Netanyahu and no "deal" short of invading Iran and toppling the government will please him. It's bizarre that we have put so much effort into this.
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #11 on: July 07, 2015, 02:22:28 PM »

Giving up a built nuke would be too humiliating to agree to.

South Africa managed to do it without 'humiliation'.

They were also allies with the USA in a world where basically everyone else hated them. They gave up the nukes a year after they reached an agreement with Cuba to stop sending troops to Namibia.

South Africa doesn't really compare to Iran so much as it compares to Israel in a world where they somehow manage to use diplomacy to be 100% safe from their neighbors

Actually, the main reason for South Africa to dismental their nuclear arsenal was their government's fear of it falling to the hands of Black government.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #12 on: July 07, 2015, 02:25:21 PM »

The long and short of it, South Africa was in a wildly wildly different situation that isn't really comparable at all.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #13 on: July 07, 2015, 02:37:52 PM »

South Africa doesn't really compare to Iran so much as it compares to Israel in a world where they somehow manage to use diplomacy to be 100% safe from their neighbors
wtf?

In what world do you live in where Israel is 100% safe from it's neighbors?  And diplomacy is what keeps it that way?!  HA!

Unless I'm missing an angle or it's a joke.....I don't know.

Do you think Egypt or Syria are dangers to Israel? Because three wars in the past 60 years say otherwise. If anything, Syria is a threat because of its weakness, not its strength.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #14 on: July 07, 2015, 02:38:59 PM »

I don't care if they are or aren't.
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dead0man
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« Reply #15 on: July 07, 2015, 02:47:32 PM »

South Africa doesn't really compare to Iran so much as it compares to Israel in a world where they somehow manage to use diplomacy to be 100% safe from their neighbors
wtf?

In what world do you live in where Israel is 100% safe from it's neighbors?  And diplomacy is what keeps it that way?!  HA!

Unless I'm missing an angle or it's a joke.....I don't know.

Do you think Egypt or Syria are dangers to Israel? Because three wars in the past 60 years say otherwise. If anything, Syria is a threat because of its weakness, not its strength.
Threats to it's existence?  No, not at all.  Threats to peace?  Obviously.  Threats to individual Israelis?  Youbetcha.
The long and short of it, South Africa was in a wildly wildly different situation that isn't really comparable at all.
Obviously.  But I think some people get bonus points every time they tie Israel to apartheid era S.Africa, it doesn't have to make sense (it never does).
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TDAS04
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« Reply #16 on: July 07, 2015, 05:05:46 PM »

I don't think so.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #17 on: July 07, 2015, 06:26:56 PM »

South Africa doesn't really compare to Iran so much as it compares to Israel in a world where they somehow manage to use diplomacy to be 100% safe from their neighbors
wtf?

In what world do you live in where Israel is 100% safe from it's neighbors?  And diplomacy is what keeps it that way?!  HA!

Unless I'm missing an angle or it's a joke.....I don't know.

You misunderstood me, I'm not trying to compare Israel with Apartheid South Africa at all.  I was just trying to say that South Africa was a poor comparison for an Iran that gave up its nukes, and describing a hypothetical situation that would better fit such a comparison.

It's still a bizarre argument as South Africa has never been at threat from any of its neighbours.

Maybe "at threat" is too strongly phrased but I'm mostly thinking of the Angolan Bush War and Namibia's War of Independence. South Africa gave up its nukes in the year after those conflicts ended
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