Prediction: will Iran be a nuclear power in the next ten years?

[Famous Mortimer]

If Iran makes a nuke, they lose their bargaining chip.

Giving up a built nuke would be too humiliating to agree to. Giving up the program is a possibility.

[Famous Mortimer]

SA only ended its nuclear program when it was clear Apartheid was done for. If there was a revolution in Iran right now, of course they would be more willing to give up nukes. A revolution isn't like though, so they wouldn't do it. Just like SA wouldn't have give up its nukes in, say, 1980.

[Famous Mortimer]

While Iran has extensively researched the possibility of acquiring nuclear weapons, our own intelligence agencies have determined that they wrapped it up in 2003. So all this paranoia about Iran is just that: paranoia, mostly from Israel, that has repeated ad nauseum that Iran is only a few years away from getting a nuke for over 20 years.

Of course, Ahmedinejad(SP?)'s suicidal rhetoric didn't help, but 1.) he's gone, and 2.) the Ayatollahs are the real powers in Iran, not the President.


So no, unless we/Israel bombs Iran and gives them a reason to get a nuke.

Exactly. The only person who cares about Iran's nuke program is Netanyahu and no "deal" short of invading Iran and toppling the government will please him. It's bizarre that we have put so much effort into this.

[Famous Mortimer]

The long and short of it, South Africa was in a wildly wildly different situation that isn't really comparable at all.