Why couldnt the tories win back lib dem seats in the south west.
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  Why couldnt the tories win back lib dem seats in the south west.
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Author Topic: Why couldnt the tories win back lib dem seats in the south west.  (Read 1906 times)
MissCatholic
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« on: May 06, 2005, 11:48:28 AM »

This has always been conservative heartland.

Quick look and the cons won

Weston super mare

but lost Taunton

couldnt regain yeovil, somerton, truro, cornwall, eastleigh, romsey and many more. is it tactical voting?
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Peter
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« Reply #1 on: May 06, 2005, 12:30:00 PM »

Cornwall is solidly Lib Dem now - no use pretending otherwise. Places like Yeovil and other Somerset/Devon seats are also trending that way, though there is a little room for the Tories to gain a few back in the future.

Importantly, Lib Dem strengths seem to be in student seats now, though interestingly they lost ground in Oxford West.
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MissCatholic
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« Reply #2 on: May 06, 2005, 12:42:01 PM »

I notice they won seats in mancester, leeds, bristol nad cardiff
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #3 on: May 06, 2005, 12:45:09 PM »

Well the easy answer is:
Because the LD's gained votes nationally and the Cons went nowhere.
The real question then would be: Why did the Tories win back any seats from the LD's at all.
Your answers there, the main LD advances were elsewhere, in urban settings.
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Peter
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« Reply #4 on: May 06, 2005, 12:45:33 PM »

I notice they won seats in mancester, leeds, bristol nad cardiff

That Manchester seat must be some sort of record, the other three were somewhat expected. They also took Cambridge, got close in City of Durham, Edinburgh North and South. Clearly they must now tool themselves ideologically to fight these sort of seats in the future since they will now lose ground trying to fight the Tories I feel.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #5 on: May 06, 2005, 01:13:23 PM »

They did about as well as they can do in City of Durham; the ring of pit villages killed their chances as they did in 1983. It's a very different seat to the ones they actually gained from Labour.

Hornsey, Withington, Leeds NW, Cardiff Central, Cambridge, Bristol West were all Tory strongholds until suprisingly recently.

It's notable that they failed to take the traditionally Labour seats like Islington South & Finsbury, Blaydon (they didn't even come close here), City of Durham, all of which still have large working class areas, while winning the one time Tory strongholds.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #6 on: May 06, 2005, 01:18:21 PM »

I don't think Cardiff Central ever was a Tory stronghold.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #7 on: May 06, 2005, 01:24:09 PM »

I don't think Cardiff Central ever was a Tory stronghold.

Cardiff Central was (confusingly) called Cardiff North until 1983. Before 1992 it had only ever gone Labour in landslides like 1966 (so not as solid as the other seats were... but this *is* Wales after all...)
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #8 on: May 06, 2005, 01:27:16 PM »

Withington should be similar to that, I guess.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #9 on: May 06, 2005, 01:29:43 PM »

Withington should be similar to that, I guess.

Withington had been Tory from the '20's until 1987.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #10 on: May 06, 2005, 01:30:28 PM »

Withington should be similar to that, I guess.

Withington had been Tory from the '20's until 1987.
I thought it was a gain in 83.
Well, you know more about these things than I do.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #11 on: May 06, 2005, 01:35:03 PM »



Labour "gained" four seats from the Tories in '83; L'Pool Broadgreen (now in Wavertree), Crewe & Nantwich, Cathcart, Erdington. With the excpetion of Broadgreen these were all "gains" from notional losses in '79.

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minionofmidas
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« Reply #12 on: May 06, 2005, 01:38:42 PM »



Labour "gained" four seats from the Tories in '83; L'Pool Broadgreen (now in Wavertree), Crewe & Nantwich, Cathcart, Erdington. With the excpetion of Broadgreen these were all "gains" from notional losses in '79.

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No, I meant a Tory gain.

Wait a minute. Did you just say Labour had a bonafide gain in 1983? They didn't have one this time around.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #13 on: May 06, 2005, 01:59:13 PM »

Wait a minute. Did you just say Labour had a bonafide gain in 1983? They didn't have one this time around.

Sort of, but in extremely unusual circumstances. It was the end of Tory Liverpool (the most extreme longterm swing in British political history). Broadgreen was a new seat, notionally Tory but with a lot of "Liberal" strength at local level. A defecting Labour M.P (went to the SDP) stood there and was thought of having a good chance of winning (it was already obvious that Thatcherism was extremely unpopular in Liverpool) but for reasons I forget, the local Alliance organisation didn't like the official candidate and ran an independent Liberal. This caused the collapse and division of the Alliance vote, and let Terry Fields (a member of Militant) in.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #14 on: May 06, 2005, 02:00:59 PM »

Wait a minute. Did you just say Labour had a bonafide gain in 1983? They didn't have one this time around.

Sort of, but in extremely unusual circumstances. It was the end of Tory Liverpool (the most extreme longterm swing in British political history). Broadgreen was a new seat, notionally Tory but with a lot of "Liberal" strength at local level. A defecting Labour M.P (went to the SDP) stood there and was thought of having a good chance of winning (it was already obvious that Thatcherism was extremely unpopular in Liverpool) but for reasons I forget, the local Alliance organisation didn't like the official candidate and ran an independent Liberal. This caused the collapse and division of the Alliance vote, and let Terry Fields (a member of Militant) in.
Speaking of Militant, Dave Nellist got his deposit back in Coventry.
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Banana Republic
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« Reply #15 on: May 06, 2005, 02:02:46 PM »

Tactical voting
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