Will Greece keep the Euro?

[The Other Castro]

Specifically in regards to the immediate potential change.

[windjammer]

I'm optimistic: Yes

[andrew_c]

No. Greece did not play by the rules. They defaulted on their debt and said no to a bailout, so they should leave the Eurozone. Eurozone membership is a privilege for EU member states, not a right.

[Antonio the Sixth]

At this point, I'm pessimistic. I still hold out some hope that European leaders realize that kicking out Greece would be the EU's suicide.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Eurozone membership is a privilege for EU member states, not a right.

Actually, membership in the Eurozone is not a privilege, it is mandatory.

EU member states are obliged to join once the convergence criteria are met and there are no legal provisions that make leaving the Eurozone possible. Unless you have an opt-out like United Kingdom or Denmark.

That's also the reason why it will be interesting to see how the EU is going to organize a Grexit without breaking any treaties and without Greece seeking legal action against a Grexit before the European Court of Justice.

[Bacon King]

Eurozone membership is a privilege for EU member states, not a right.

Actually, membership in the Eurozone is not a privilege, it is mandatory.

EU member states are obliged to join once the convergence criteria are met and there are no legal provisions that make leaving the Eurozone possible. Unless you have an opt-out like United Kingdom or Denmark.

That's also the reason why it will be interesting to see how the EU is going to organize a Grexit without breaking any treaties and without Greece seeking legal action against a Grexit before the European Court of Justice.

Exactly, Greece is staying in the Euro indefinitely because of Game Theory

Greece's existing treaties prohibit leaving the Euro, and any new agreement that supersedes that prohibition has to be ratified by Greece to come into effect. Because of that, Greece doesn't quit the Euro in any situation where they just keep using it (of course this might be difficult in practice)

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Eurozone membership is a privilege for EU member states, not a right.

Actually, membership in the Eurozone is not a privilege, it is mandatory.

EU member states are obliged to join once the convergence criteria are met and there are no legal provisions that make leaving the Eurozone possible. Unless you have an opt-out like United Kingdom or Denmark.

That's also the reason why it will be interesting to see how the EU is going to organize a Grexit without breaking any treaties and without Greece seeking legal action against a Grexit before the European Court of Justice.

It isn't exactly mandatory. Somehow Sweden avoided joining the Euro.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Eurozone membership is a privilege for EU member states, not a right.

Actually, membership in the Eurozone is not a privilege, it is mandatory.

EU member states are obliged to join once the convergence criteria are met and there are no legal provisions that make leaving the Eurozone possible. Unless you have an opt-out like United Kingdom or Denmark.

That's also the reason why it will be interesting to see how the EU is going to organize a Grexit without breaking any treaties and without Greece seeking legal action against a Grexit before the European Court of Justice.

It isn't exactly mandatory. Somehow Sweden avoided joining the Euro.

Technically, Sweden is also obliged to introduce the Euro. However, the EU decided not to force the issue due to Sweden's position being the result of a popular referendum.... mhmm...

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

No. If they do, the long-term pain will far exceed the short-term pain of returning to the drachma. Greece has already suffered so much long-term pain for little gain that it's hard to see them wanting more of the same.

[ag]

Eurozone membership is a privilege for EU member states, not a right.

Actually, membership in the Eurozone is not a privilege, it is mandatory.

EU member states are obliged to join once the convergence criteria are met and there are no legal provisions that make leaving the Eurozone possible. Unless you have an opt-out like United Kingdom or Denmark.

That's also the reason why it will be interesting to see how the EU is going to organize a Grexit without breaking any treaties and without Greece seeking legal action against a Grexit before the European Court of Justice.

Exactly, Greece is staying in the Euro indefinitely because of Game Theory

Greece's existing treaties prohibit leaving the Euro, and any new agreement that supersedes that prohibition has to be ratified by Greece to come into effect. Because of that, Greece doesn't quit the Euro in any situation where they just keep using it (of course this might be difficult in practice)

They are welcome to use it. They need nobody's permission to do so. Kosovo does. The only problem is, in order to use euro, one needs to have euro. And Greeks do not.

[Beezer]

Eurozone membership is a privilege for EU member states, not a right.

Actually, membership in the Eurozone is not a privilege, it is mandatory.

EU member states are obliged to join once the convergence criteria are met and there are no legal provisions that make leaving the Eurozone possible. Unless you have an opt-out like United Kingdom or Denmark.

That's also the reason why it will be interesting to see how the EU is going to organize a Grexit without breaking any treaties and without Greece seeking legal action against a Grexit before the European Court of Justice.

Exactly, Greece is staying in the Euro indefinitely because of Game Theory

Greece's existing treaties prohibit leaving the Euro, and any new agreement that supersedes that prohibition has to be ratified by Greece to come into effect. Because of that, Greece doesn't quit the Euro in any situation where they just keep using it (of course this might be difficult in practice)

Using the euro will become virtually impossible if the ECB completely turns off the tap. So w/o an agreement on sunday Greece will eventually have to issue its own currency regardless of what the treaties say.

[Beet]

No. If they do, the long-term pain will far exceed the short-term pain of returning to the drachma. Greece has already suffered so much long-term pain for little gain that it's hard to see them wanting more of the same.

Well, according to that Belgian dude Torie linked to, it sounds like the long-term pain of Greece not reforming its clientelistic/socialist economy will be far worse than taking the E.U.'s medicine.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

No. If they do, the long-term pain will far exceed the short-term pain of returning to the drachma. Greece has already suffered so much long-term pain for little gain that it's hard to see them wanting more of the same.

Well, according to that Belgian dude Torie linked to, it sounds like the long-term pain of Greece not reforming its clientelistic/socialist economy will be far worse than taking the E.U.'s medicine.

Reform and austerity are not synonymous.  Granted, some people will be hurt by either, but where Greece most needs reform is on the tax side of the public fisc.  Not only would doing so raise funds, it would raise some badly needed political capital.  However, it looks like the people aren't going to be listened to, so Greece will be staying in the Euro for the moment despite the referendum.

[ingemann]

No. If they do, the long-term pain will far exceed the short-term pain of returning to the drachma. Greece has already suffered so much long-term pain for little gain that it's hard to see them wanting more of the same.

Well, according to that Belgian dude Torie linked to, it sounds like the long-term pain of Greece not reforming its clientelistic/socialist economy will be far worse than taking the E.U.'s medicine.

Reform and austerity are not synonymous.  Granted, some people will be hurt by either, but where Greece most needs reform is on the tax side of the public fisc.  Not only would doing so raise funds, it would raise some badly needed political capital.  However, it looks like the people aren't going to be listened to, so Greece will be staying in the Euro for the moment despite the referendum.

While I agree that Greek need a tax reform more than anything else, the Greeks at no point have tried any real reforms of the tax system, beside some symbolic tax increase for the rich, which even if they was collected (which the Greek wouldn't) would give a minimal extra income.

As such spending cuts was a necessarity. Of course it would be better if it hadn't happened under a recession, but when the Greek competitiveness is as low as it is, there's little other choice. Again lowering it with inflation would also be preferable. But if the Greeks want the Euro, that wasn't a choice either.

As for the pension age, in the old days it wasn't a problem, there was more young people and the old lived shorter lioves. But here's the Greek population pyramid from 2009.



While the average real Greek retirement age are higher than we usual discuss this are a pyramid which scream for a rise in retirement age.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

No. If they do, the long-term pain will far exceed the short-term pain of returning to the drachma. Greece has already suffered so much long-term pain for little gain that it's hard to see them wanting more of the same.

Well, according to that Belgian dude Torie linked to, it sounds like the long-term pain of Greece not reforming its clientelistic/socialist economy will be far worse than taking the E.U.'s medicine.

Reform and austerity are not synonymous.  Granted, some people will be hurt by either, but where Greece most needs reform is on the tax side of the public fisc.  Not only would doing so raise funds, it would raise some badly needed political capital.  However, it looks like the people aren't going to be listened to, so Greece will be staying in the Euro for the moment despite the referendum.

While I agree that Greek need a tax reform more than anything else, the Greeks at no point have tried any real reforms of the tax system, beside some symbolic tax increase for the rich, which even if they was collected (which the Greek wouldn't) would give a minimal extra income.

It hasn't happened in the past so it won't happen in the future. Gotcha.

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That would be a powerful argument if austerity had done jack-sh**t to help Greece's 'competitiveness'.

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I don't really have any basis for arguing against you here.

[ingemann]

No. If they do, the long-term pain will far exceed the short-term pain of returning to the drachma. Greece has already suffered so much long-term pain for little gain that it's hard to see them wanting more of the same.

Well, according to that Belgian dude Torie linked to, it sounds like the long-term pain of Greece not reforming its clientelistic/socialist economy will be far worse than taking the E.U.'s medicine.

Reform and austerity are not synonymous.  Granted, some people will be hurt by either, but where Greece most needs reform is on the tax side of the public fisc.  Not only would doing so raise funds, it would raise some badly needed political capital.  However, it looks like the people aren't going to be listened to, so Greece will be staying in the Euro for the moment despite the referendum.

While I agree that Greek need a tax reform more than anything else, the Greeks at no point have tried any real reforms of the tax system, beside some symbolic tax increase for the rich, which even if they was collected (which the Greek wouldn't) would give a minimal extra income.

It hasn't happened in the past so it won't happen in the future. Gotcha.

Greece have shown no improvement in their ability to collect taxes and even if they had shown improvements, this simply didn't give enough revenue.

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That would be a powerful argument if austerity had done jack-sh**t to help Greece's 'competitiveness'.[/quote]

It have improved, of course no one are going to invest in country, where there's as much political chaos and doubt about the future as Greece. But the reforms they have pushed through have improved their competitiveness.

[TDAS04]

I'm guessing no, but I could be wrong. 

[swl]

Schauble plan may actually have been to kick Greece from the beginning, whatever they do: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jul/10/germany-greek-pain-debt-relief-grexit

[ingemann]

Schauble plan may actually have been to kick Greece from the beginning, whatever they do: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jul/10/germany-greek-pain-debt-relief-grexit

If Germany wanted Greece out no matter what, the Grexit would have happened a long time ago.

[PJ]

No, a Grexit seems unavoidable at this point. Any rational solution is too far gone.