FL: Rereredistricting

[TJ in Oregon]

The minority packing is of a contiguous area, makes for a compact CD, and it is the only way to elect a minority, although that would not be guaranteed, but if Hispanics are willing to vote for a black to some extent in a Dem primary, or blacks an Hispanic to some extent, it will happen. Having two Dem CD's means electing two white liberals, and shutting out a minority congressperson.  

Do we have historical evidence of racial block voting in Democratic primaries in this area, so that there is a candidate of the "white community"'s choice who will defeat a candidate reflecting the choice of the black or Hispanic communities? The race of the candidate himself is somewhat related to that, but it varies a lot. I'm not trying to be difficult here, but Central Florida is really unlike places like L.A. County or Brooklyn where this equation is usually considered.

The Puerto Rican population in the Orlando area is relatively new (compared to other majority minority areas at least...).     I don't know if FL-9 was drawn intentionally as a majority minority district, but it follows along the same guidelines of separating the African American population in FL-24 from the Hispanic (Cuban) populations in FL-25 or FL-27.   

If they're just going to cram them together they're no reason to think that FL-24 to the south shouldn't be called out as a vote sink and joined with the surrounding districts as well.

I believe FL-24 is a Section 2 VRA seat and can't be carved up under federal law regardless of what the Florida law says.

Yes, obviously FL-24 won't be broken up.   The issue is it's a group of minorities under pretty much the same situation as the African Americans in FL-24 that are in Orange and Osceola Counties.

Not quite. The main difference is that in FL-24 there actually is a large enough contiguous minority (black in this case) population to hit 50.1% BVAP, which is sufficiently high to for the minority group to elect the candidate of its choice. In the case of Orlando, the minority population is not high enough to guarantee the minority group will be able to elect the candidate of its choice. See the South Texas Hispanic seats. Since no single minority group qualifies under Section 2 (like in FL-24), the drawing falls to Florida law. Florida law is ambiguous as to whether the map drawers are required to put both minority groups into one seat so at least one of them will get the candidate of their choice (perhaps both if they have the same candidate of their choice, hence the questions about Puerto Ricans supporting black politicians in the primary), or whether the two groups must be separated to maximize the number of minority-majority seats. No one seems to know the answer to that question or what the Florida Supreme Court thinks about it. Republicans are hoping the former and Democrats are hoping the latter.

[Torie]

Here is my best effort for a Florida map (with the revisions discussed below). I just started over from scratch. FL-26 has less than 1% Pub PVI as it turns out. FL-18 is at a 3% Pub PVI, FL-07 is at 2% Pub PVI. Other than FL-13 at a Dem 3% PVI, everything else is safe for one party or the other. FL-20 strikes me as Constitutionally suspect (racial gerrymander breaking every line drawing rule in the book), but that is just me. Nobody else seems to mind, so I went with the flow. One thing FL-20 does do, is drive where the lines are at the southern end of FL-18.

[windjammer]

Here is my best effort for a Florida map. I just started over from scratch. FL-26 has less than 1% Pub PVI as it turns out. FL-18 is at a 3% Pub PVI, FL-07 is at 2% Pub PVI. Other than FL-13 at a Dem 3% PVI, everything else is safe for one party or the other. FL-20 strikes me as Constitutionally suspect (racial gerrymander breaking every line drawing rule in the book), but that is just me. Nobody else seems to mind, so I went with the flow. One think FL-20 does do, is drive where the lines are at the southern end of FL-18.



 Could you give the numbers please?

[Torie]

What numbers do you want? I gave the highlights above. I just moved FL-22 and FL-21 around, so that FL-22 is almost entirely in Broward County now. The previous configuration was the remnants of a Pub gerrymander of old, and is just not justifiable.

[windjammer]

What numbers do you want? I gave the highlights above. I just moved FL-22 and FL-21 around, so that FL-22 is almost entirely in Broward County now. The previous configuration was the remnants of a Pub gerrymander of old, and is just not justifiable.

Well for each district the result of the 2008 presidential election.
Thanks,
WJ

[jocallag]

It would be great if you would just post the kmz or doj file for your plan. It would be interesting to know what the partisan election numbers are for every district. I notice that you added the liberal Gainesville area to Gwen Graham's district so partisan election data would be particularly interesting there.

[jimrtex]

It would be great if you would just post the kmz or doj file for your plan. It would be interesting to know what the partisan election numbers are for every district. I notice that you added the liberal Gainesville area to Gwen Graham's district so partisan election data would be particularly interesting there.

They are using Dave's Redistricting App (DRA).

DRA does have the ability to export lists of VTDs to a csv file. They could send you the csv file to convert.

This article describes how to convert that csv file into shapefiles, and into kmz files

I have not yet found documentation for the doj format. I have requested information about the format from the USDOJ.

[TJ in Oregon]

Torie, what's the BVAP of your district 5? It looks like it might be a little lower than most of the maps I've seen and I was wondering if it may be too low for the court to approve?

The way you drew it leads to everything else ending up more contiguous than if you shift more of FL-5 into Jacksonville, but are we allowed to draw it that way?

[muon2]

Torie, it looks like you have chosen to ignore the court's recommendation regarding FL-21 and 22.
It's easy to remove the excess chop, so is there a reason you opted against that?

[Torie]

Torie, it looks like you have chosen to ignore the court's recommendation regarding FL-21 and 22.
It's easy to remove the excess chop, so is there a reason you opted against that?

Yes, I already did. It reduces the BVAP of FL-20 by 80 basis points down to 45.5% BVAP, but that should not be a problem.



Here are the map stats that a couple of posters wanted.

[Torie]

And here is a map iteration that knocks FL-25 out of Broward, which presumably would be in order as well, and also gets the BVAP of FL-24 down a tad below 50%, which is probably good to avoid a packing issue.

[Nyvin]

In that map it kinda looks like FL-7 and FL-11 would be Dem leaning swing seats currently with all the Puerto Ricans moving to the area.   Also I'm pretty sure John Mica lives in Deltona so not sure he'd be able to run in that FL-7.   Obviously whoever is currently in FL-11 wouldn't be located in that version of the district either.

FL-5 kinda looks low on the African American population, but I'm sure some tweeking can fix that without much impact.    

The Miami area looks good.

[Torie]

In that map it kinda looks like FL-7 and FL-11 would be Dem leaning swing seats currently with all the Puerto Ricans moving to the area.   Also I'm pretty sure John Mica lives in Deltona so not sure he'd be able to run in that FL-7.

FL-5 kinda looks low on the African American population, but I'm sure some tweeking can fix that without much impact.    

The Miami area looks good.

As to FL-05, I don't think making more county chops can be justified, which is what would need to be done to get the BVAP up a couple of points. It becomes a racial gerrymander potentially that is unconstitutional. And FLOTUS does not like chops. 39% is probably enough to nominate a black in the Dem primary, because such a high percentage of whites vote in the GOP primary. Also, about 25% of the Hispanics up here are black, so the black BVAP is really about 40%. Ironically, what makes more county chops for FL-05 suspect here is that there is no partisan reason to do so, which partisan motives SCOTUS has ruled are OK. So the only reason to do more chops is a racially based one, for a non contiguous black population, for a CD not Constitutionally required, although maybe it is required as drawn under the Florida Constitution.

My FL-11 is basically Grayson's district. He's running for the Senate, so FL-11 would be an open seat, as would FL-09 (which takes up  part of Grayson's and part of Corrine Brown's old CD's). The current Pub in FL-03 would need to run in FL-02, and the current Pub in FL-11 run in FL-03, as the lines move around to accommodate FL-05 being wholly located in north Florida.

[RBH]

We got an official plan concept!

[Torie]

Lots of chops, and FL-10 was ceded to the Dems. So Orlando will elect two white liberals.

[Nyvin]

Wow!   It looks like they split the African Americans and Puerto Ricans between FL-10 and FL-9!!!

Awesome!   Looks like I was at least partially correct.

[Brittain33]

With redistricting there's such a build-up of excitement until the actual maps come out, and then it's "meh," isn't it?

I guess I'm curious how swingy FL-10 is.

What share of Polk County's population lives in FL-15? Is it closer to 80% or 50%?

[JerryArkansas]

I guess I'm curious how swingy FL-10 is.

What share of Polk County's population lives in FL-15? Is it closer to 80% or 50%?

On the 10, the republican's cede it to dems, while making the 9th semi competitive in a wave.  So unless Dan Webster runs in the new 15, he is gone.

[DrScholl]

Most likely Val Demings will run in FL-10 and Darren Soto in the FL-9. Osceola County voted over 60% Obama, so FL-9 is secure even in a wave. And I would wager that 59% Obama, give or take a percentage point.

[Torie]

With redistricting there's such a build-up of excitement until the actual maps come out, and then it's "meh," isn't it?

I guess I'm curious how swingy FL-10 is.

What share of Polk County's population lives in FL-15? Is it closer to 80% or 50%?

FL-9 is about 56% Obama, FL-07 51.4% Obama, and FL-10 60% Obama. No minority has a chance of winning anything in Orlando. FL-10 is about 47% white, 24% black, 21% Hispanic, 5% Asian. FL-9 is about 51% white, 11% black, 34% Hispanic and 3% Asian.

Some precincts on Dave's mapping utility have been split, so this is only an estimate, but it should not be too far off. FLOTUS will love this map.

[windjammer]

Torie,
Why didn't they simply back your redistricting plan. It appears this is much more favorable to the dems.

And could you give the estimates for this please too?
Thanks!

[DrScholl]

Minorities can get elected to districts that aren't heavily tilted towards one race. Val Demings nearly won FL-10 as a gerrymander, so it's hard to see her losing the new version should she decide to run.

[JerryArkansas]

Torie,
Why didn't they simply back your redistricting plan. It appears this is much more favorable to the dems.

And could you give the estimates for this please too?
Thanks!

Windjammer, I suggest going to this guy here.  He is give numbers right now for 2012 for some of these districts, and giving commentary on them.  He is a great person to listen to when it comes to Florida politics, he is the one who helped come up with the Leon County in one district's thing.

[Nyvin]

I don't really get why they'd give FL-4 parts of St Johns while giving parts of Leon to FL-2.    All that does is make FL-6 less Pub and FL-2 more Pub.

What would the PVI of FL-6 be now?

[JerryArkansas]

I don't really get why they'd give FL-4 parts of St Johns while giving parts of Leon to FL-2.    All that does is make FL-6 less Pub and FL-2 more Pub.

What would the PVI of FL-6 be now?

If they didn't do that, it would mess up the third more than it already is, and just make the map look much more mess than it already does.  It looks like the new 6th is about a R +5 or 6 district.