FL: Rereredistricting

[Brittain33]

The Florida Supreme Court has thrown out Corrine Brown's district, Jolly's and Cantor's in Tampa Bay, and several in South Florida as violating the redistricting amendment.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/stateroundup/florida-supreme-court-orders-new-congressional-map-with-eight-districts-to/2236734

Interestingly, they're saying that FL-5 should be redrawn as east-west rather than north-south. I guess the compromise to clean up Orlando and Sanford lines didn't go far enough.

[Brittain33]

This could be the plaintiffs' proposal... the names are the same... but I'm not certain.

http://www.flsenate.gov/Session/Redistricting/Plan/SPUBC0170

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Hopefully the legislature will draw a new district that makes Lois Frankel vulnerable.

[Gass3268]

Hopefully the legislature will draw a new district that makes Lois Frankel vulnerable.

More likely she gets a safer seat.

[Torie]

The Florida Supreme Court has thrown out Corrine Brown's district, Jolly's and Cantor's in Tampa Bay, and several in South Florida as violating the redistricting amendment.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/stateroundup/florida-supreme-court-orders-new-congressional-map-with-eight-districts-to/2236734

Interestingly, they're saying that FL-5 should be redrawn as east-west rather than north-south. I guess the compromise to clean up Orlando and Sanford lines didn't go far enough.

Is FLOTUS still packed with result oriented Dems? I mean, that final decision of theirs after SCOTUS b slapped them in Bush v. Gore, was well ... just amazing.

[Pandaguineapig]

Theres a chance this gets drawn out so long that the map holds until 2018 or 2020

[JerryArkansas]

Theres a chance this gets drawn out so long that the map holds until 2018 or 2020

No, stop hoping.  The decision is pretty tight.  The Legislator has to draw the maps in the next 100 days.

[Bacon King]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Daaaaaaaaaaamn

[Brittain33]

Is FLOTUS still packed with result oriented Dems?

I was thinking just that. (Well, not exactly in those terms.) But there hasn't been a Democratic governor in 17 years!

[Nyvin]

Is FLOTUS still packed with result oriented Dems?

I was thinking just that. (Well, not exactly in those terms.) But there hasn't been a Democratic governor in 17 years!

Or a Democratic Legislature since the mid-90's....

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Hopefully the legislature will draw a new district that makes Lois Frankel vulnerable.

More likely she gets a safer seat.

I know. I just like to dream.

[jimrtex]

The Florida Supreme Court has thrown out Corrine Brown's district, Jolly's and Cantor's in Tampa Bay, and several in South Florida as violating the redistricting amendment.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/stateroundup/florida-supreme-court-orders-new-congressional-map-with-eight-districts-to/2236734

Interestingly, they're saying that FL-5 should be redrawn as east-west rather than north-south. I guess the compromise to clean up Orlando and Sanford lines didn't go far enough.

Is FLOTUS still packed with result oriented Dems? I mean, that final decision of theirs after SCOTUS b slapped them in Bush v. Gore, was well ... just amazing.

3 of the justices were appointed by Lawton Chiles.   4 were appointed by Charlie Crist.

In 2000, 6 of the justices had been appointed by Chiles, and 1 by Bob Graham.  In Florida, Supreme Court justices are appointed by the governor, and then face a retention election at the next general election, and every 6 years thereafter.  Justices must retire if they will reach 70 in the first half of their last term (ie 66y10m or older at the time of a November retention election).

CJ Pariente, and JJ Lewis and Quince, were appointed at the end of Chiles term of office, and faced the first retention in November 2000.  They had all been retained with 72% of the vote at that election.  They were all retained in 2006 and 2012.  They all must retire at the end of this term (but after the end of Rick Scott's term).  Pariente wrote the redistricting decision, which Quince signed on to.  Lewis concurred in the result, but did not sign on to the opinion.

Jeb Bush was able to appoint two justices, who were retained in 2004, but both resigned in 2008.  Two of Chiles' appointments were forced to retired.  This permitted Charlie Crist to appoint four justices, all who were retained in 2010.  These justices split 2:2 on the redistricting decision.

In the 2010, there was some differentiation among the 4 justices:

J Canady   68% (to retain)
J Polston   66%
J Perry      62%
J Labarga  59%

This is quite atypical for retention elections due to: (1) the low percentage to retain, and (2) the variation.   Typically it appears that voters simply vote to retain all justices on the ballot, or vote to get rid of all of them.   Voters really don't know how the justices have ruled as individuals.  If SCOTUS justices faced retention elections, X% would vote against all 9.  There would be some who would vote against the liberal justices and some that would vote against the conservative justices, and some would vote based on race for Sotamoyer or Thomas, and on sex for Kagan, Sotomayor, and Ginsburg.

The retention support has been declining.  Canady's support at 68% was about what justices had been getting.  The support for Labarga and Perry was the worst ever (no justice has ever been voted out).  Canady and Polston were the two justices who dissented in the redistricting decision.  Canady is a former congressman, serving 8 years and leaving to comply with personal term-limits pledge.  He was Governor Jeb Bush's chief counsel.

[windjammer]

Torie or Muon or anyone else,
Could you draw the least changes for the republicans please?

[muon2]

Is there a link to the opinion?

Found it on the FL megathread.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fantastic news!

[muon2]

It looks like wholesale changes in the northern and central districts will be difficult to avoid given the directed changes to FL-5, 13 and 14. FL-3 will get pushed well to the east probably picking up Putnam and most of Marion counties as FL-2 will have to come to the doorstep of Gainesville as it gives up most of Leon and other counties on the GA border. FL-4 may have to chop into FL-6 depending on how FL-3 is configured. The effects of FL-3 and 4 on FL-6 could then push it to take up Deltona from FL-7.

Here's how the north might look under that scenario.

[muon2]

The court order forces FL-13 to be entirely within Pinellas which forces FL-12 to shift and cover more of north Pinellas. It forces FL-14 entirely within Hillsborough with adjustments to FL-15 and 17. The retreat of FL-5 to the north creates the likelihood that FL-10 becomes a district taking up all of Orlando with other high-minority suburbs. In my version it ends up 40.9% WVAP, 23.2% BVAP, 29.1% HVAP and 65.6% Obama 08. That forces corresponding changes to all the adjacent CDs with FL-7 picking up more of Orange and northern Lake, FL-9 picking up much of the old FL-10 in Polk and Orange, and FL-11 picking up most of Lake.

[Sol]

The court order forces FL-13 to be entirely within Pinellas which forces FL-12 to shift and cover more of north Pinellas. It forces FL-14 entirely within Hillsborough with adjustments to FL-15 and 17. The retreat of FL-5 to the north creates the likelihood that FL-10 becomes a district taking up all of Orlando with other high-minority suburbs. In my version it ends up 40.9% WVAP, 23.2% BVAP, 29.1% HVAP and 65.6% Obama 08. That forces corresponding changes to all the adjacent CDs with FL-7 picking up more of Orange and northern Lake, FL-9 picking up much of the old FL-10 in Polk and Orange, and FL-11 picking up most of Lake.

What is FL-09's political composition?

[muon2]

The court order forces FL-13 to be entirely within Pinellas which forces FL-12 to shift and cover more of north Pinellas. It forces FL-14 entirely within Hillsborough with adjustments to FL-15 and 17. The retreat of FL-5 to the north creates the likelihood that FL-10 becomes a district taking up all of Orlando with other high-minority suburbs. In my version it ends up 40.9% WVAP, 23.2% BVAP, 29.1% HVAP and 65.6% Obama 08. That forces corresponding changes to all the adjacent CDs with FL-7 picking up more of Orange and northern Lake, FL-9 picking up much of the old FL-10 in Polk and Orange, and FL-11 picking up most of Lake.

What is FL-09's political composition?

In 2008 it was 54.2/45.8 for Obama which is equivalent to D+0.5 or a toss up. The shape assumes no change to FL-8 (R+9) and minimal changes to FL-17 (R+10), but if those are reworked by the legislature then FL-9 is likely to end up more Pub.

[Skill and Chance]

The court order forces FL-13 to be entirely within Pinellas which forces FL-12 to shift and cover more of north Pinellas. It forces FL-14 entirely within Hillsborough with adjustments to FL-15 and 17. The retreat of FL-5 to the north creates the likelihood that FL-10 becomes a district taking up all of Orlando with other high-minority suburbs. In my version it ends up 40.9% WVAP, 23.2% BVAP, 29.1% HVAP and 65.6% Obama 08. That forces corresponding changes to all the adjacent CDs with FL-7 picking up more of Orange and northern Lake, FL-9 picking up much of the old FL-10 in Polk and Orange, and FL-11 picking up most of Lake.

What is FL-09's political composition?

In 2008 it was 54.2/45.8 for Obama which is equivalent to D+0.5 or a toss up. The shape assumes no change to FL-8 (R+9) and minimal changes to FL-17 (R+10), but if those are reworked by the legislature then FL-9 is likely to end up more Pub.

So it becomes very hard to avoid 2 Obama seats in the Orlando area now, fascinating.  I wonder if the FLSC would go for the 4 way split of Orange, though.  Is it possible to split Orange only 2 or 3 ways and still have a majority-minority district?

[muon2]

The court order forces FL-13 to be entirely within Pinellas which forces FL-12 to shift and cover more of north Pinellas. It forces FL-14 entirely within Hillsborough with adjustments to FL-15 and 17. The retreat of FL-5 to the north creates the likelihood that FL-10 becomes a district taking up all of Orlando with other high-minority suburbs. In my version it ends up 40.9% WVAP, 23.2% BVAP, 29.1% HVAP and 65.6% Obama 08. That forces corresponding changes to all the adjacent CDs with FL-7 picking up more of Orange and northern Lake, FL-9 picking up much of the old FL-10 in Polk and Orange, and FL-11 picking up most of Lake.

What is FL-09's political composition?

In 2008 it was 54.2/45.8 for Obama which is equivalent to D+0.5 or a toss up. The shape assumes no change to FL-8 (R+9) and minimal changes to FL-17 (R+10), but if those are reworked by the legislature then FL-9 is likely to end up more Pub.

So it becomes very hard to avoid 2 Obama seats in the Orlando area now, fascinating.  I wonder if the FLSC would go for the 4 way split of Orange, though.  Is it possible to split Orange only 2 or 3 ways and still have a majority-minority district?

The opinion did not care about the Orange splits, and didn't even find that FL-10 needed to be redrawn. Of course it has to be anyway, and I assume the FL legislature will make it a minority opportunity district as a Dem vote sink. The part of 8 in Orange isn't very big and could easily chop elsewhere.

[muon2]

The opinion requires changes for 5 CDs in south FL, but it looks like one could accommodate all of the required changes without changing the political leanings of any of the CDs.

The Court recommends, but does not require a different split of FL-21 and 22. Even going with the revised split, FL-22 is still a competitive D+3 or 4 CD as it is in the current configuration. FL-25 has to pick up all of Hendry, but shifting some population with FL-23 keeps all the districts largely the same. FL-26 and 27 must not split Homestead, but with shifts across US-1 to keep more communities whole, the result is that both CDs keep the same R+1 or 2 lean.

In this plan I made the required adjustments without respect to the political leanings, but they still were essentially unchanged. FL-20 is 47.1% BVAP, FL-24 is 50.8% BVAP, and FL 25,26, 27 are all between 69% and 74% HVAP.

[JerryArkansas]

Muon, again, you have knocked it out of the park.  Very reasonable least change map. 

[muon2]

It looks like wholesale changes in the northern and central districts will be difficult to avoid given the directed changes to FL-5, 13 and 14. FL-3 will get pushed well to the east probably picking up Putnam and most of Marion counties as FL-2 will have to come to the doorstep of Gainesville as it gives up most of Leon and other counties on the GA border. FL-4 may have to chop into FL-6 depending on how FL-3 is configured. The effects of FL-3 and 4 on FL-6 could then push it to take up Deltona from FL-7.

Here's how the north might look under that scenario.

What would be the political breakdown of that new FL-3? I know the FL Rs have long attempted to split or otherwise minimize the influence of Gainesville and even smaller towns like Palatka - does one that largely contains both have any potential for a Dem pickup?

I think the Pubs worry too much about population centers like that. Even with Gainsville, Ocala, and Palatka that is still a R+8 district. So even if the Pubs are worried about a Graham, that FL-3 is 2 points more Pub than the current FL-2.

It's the same crazy fear that got them into to trouble in S. FL in the current suit. As my map shows they didn't have to expose themselves to the charge of political gerrymandering there and still have the same result. Yet by trying to squeeze out every last advantage it made the record clear to the FL SC and helped lead them to rule against more than just FL-5.

[jimrtex]

The court order forces FL-13 to be entirely within Pinellas which forces FL-12 to shift and cover more of north Pinellas. It forces FL-14 entirely within Hillsborough with adjustments to FL-15 and 17. The retreat of FL-5 to the north creates the likelihood that FL-10 becomes a district taking up all of Orlando with other high-minority suburbs. In my version it ends up 40.9% WVAP, 23.2% BVAP, 29.1% HVAP and 65.6% Obama 08. That forces corresponding changes to all the adjacent CDs with FL-7 picking up more of Orange and northern Lake, FL-9 picking up much of the old FL-10 in Polk and Orange, and FL-11 picking up most of Lake.

What is FL-09's political composition?

In 2008 it was 54.2/45.8 for Obama which is equivalent to D+0.5 or a toss up. The shape assumes no change to FL-8 (R+9) and minimal changes to FL-17 (R+10), but if those are reworked by the legislature then FL-9 is likely to end up more Pub.

So it becomes very hard to avoid 2 Obama seats in the Orlando area now, fascinating.  I wonder if the FLSC would go for the 4 way split of Orange, though.  Is it possible to split Orange only 2 or 3 ways and still have a majority-minority district?

The opinion did not care about the Orange splits, and didn't even find that FL-10 needed to be redrawn. Of course it has to be anyway, and I assume the FL legislature will make it a minority opportunity district as a Dem vote sink. The part of 8 in Orange isn't very big and could easily chop elsewhere.

Does a plan that double spans counties comply with the Florida constitutional requirement for compact districts and where feasible, utilization of political boundaries?

Can the split of Columbia be avoided?  What about 8/15 and Hillsborough/Polk, and 8/9 Orange/Polk.