FL: Rereredistricting

[Gass3268]

The court order forces FL-13 to be entirely within Pinellas which forces FL-12 to shift and cover more of north Pinellas. It forces FL-14 entirely within Hillsborough with adjustments to FL-15 and 17. The retreat of FL-5 to the north creates the likelihood that FL-10 becomes a district taking up all of Orlando with other high-minority suburbs. In my version it ends up 40.9% WVAP, 23.2% BVAP, 29.1% HVAP and 65.6% Obama 08. That forces corresponding changes to all the adjacent CDs with FL-7 picking up more of Orange and northern Lake, FL-9 picking up much of the old FL-10 in Polk and Orange, and FL-11 picking up most of Lake.

What is FL-09's political composition?

In 2008 it was 54.2/45.8 for Obama which is equivalent to D+0.5 or a toss up. The shape assumes no change to FL-8 (R+9) and minimal changes to FL-17 (R+10), but if those are reworked by the legislature then FL-9 is likely to end up more Pub.

So it becomes very hard to avoid 2 Obama seats in the Orlando area now, fascinating.  I wonder if the FLSC would go for the 4 way split of Orange, though.  Is it possible to split Orange only 2 or 3 ways and still have a majority-minority district?

The opinion did not care about the Orange splits, and didn't even find that FL-10 needed to be redrawn. Of course it has to be anyway, and I assume the FL legislature will make it a minority opportunity district as a Dem vote sink. The part of 8 in Orange isn't very big and could easily chop elsewhere.

Does a plan that double spans counties comply with the Florida constitutional requirement for compact districts and where feasible, utilization of political boundaries?

Can the split of Columbia be avoided?  What about 8/15 and Hillsborough/Polk, and 8/9 Orange/Polk.

I think the purple district in Hillsborough/Polk is 17.

[Brittain33]

What would be the political breakdown of that new FL-3? I know the FL Rs have long attempted to split or otherwise minimize the influence of Gainesville and even smaller towns like Palatka - does one that largely contains both have any potential for a Dem pickup?

A large majority of the population lives in Marion County and Clay County (just SW of Jax). Clay Couty is hyper Republican and Marion County is solidly Republican. Alachua will be drowned out.

[muon2]

Okeechobee is in FL-17 and Indian River is in FL-8, unchanged from the current map. The default DRA colors when captured in a screen shot don't distinguish well between FL-8 and 17. I noticed it after it was posted, so I made FL-17 bluer for the map of south FL.

Putting all of Columbia in FL-5 drops BVAP below 40%, and the rationale for a district able to elect a black candidate of choice is weaker.

[windjammer]

So in the end, are FL democrats going to pick up new seats?

[muon2]

So in the end, are FL democrats going to pick up new seats?

That's a politics question, not a redistricting one. The answer is "yes, probably, but it's the Florida Democratic Party we're talking about so maybe not."

It's hard to see a compliant plan that doesn't at least give the Dems a seat for Orlando. St Pete is going to be a potential seat for the Dems to pick up as well. Beyond that, probably not much.


In the other direction FL-2 will become hard R due to the rearrangement of FL-5.

[politicallefty]

So in the end, are FL democrats going to pick up new seats?

That's a politics question, not a redistricting one. The answer is "yes, probably, but it's the Florida Democratic Party we're talking about so maybe not."

It's hard to see a compliant plan that doesn't at least give the Dems a seat for Orlando. St Pete is going to be a potential seat for the Dems to pick up as well. Beyond that, probably not much.

I completely agree. The FL-09 you drew (basically, the successor to the current FL-10) may very well have been even stronger for Obama in 2012. You included all of Osceola County, which actually swung towards Obama in 2012. The other areas at trended that way. You really have to gerrrymander the area to keep from having another Democratic district in the area (albeit considerably more competitive than FL-10). I don't think the FL Supreme Court will allow anything else, as their opinion does not at all give the Legislature the benefit of the doubt. Considering the current FL-10 is R+6 and Democrats came particularly close in 2012, I think Democrats could almost lock the seat down with Val Demings.

FL-13 (FL-14 by extension) was always the district that bothered me the most in Florida. It was a blatant partisan gerrymander and an obvious violation of the Florida Constitution. Alex Sink would've easily won the special election for a FL-13 that included all of St. Petersburg. There's absolutely no reason why there shouldn't be separate Tampa and St. Petersburg districts, as I've noted and made maps of in the past. Is there any reason you chose not to have FL-15 take the (non-FL-12/FL-14) remainder of Hillsborough County to avoid an addition county split?

Overall, I think the map change itself will most likely result in D+1 (losing FL-02 and gaining a seat each in St. Petersburg and the Orlando area). The changes in South Florida are likely to be insignificant. FL-26 will be competitive either way and FL-27 will not be (Ileana Ros-Lehtinen is basically invincible).

[muon2]

FL-13 (FL-14 by extension) was always the district that bothered me the most in Florida. It was a blatant partisan gerrymander and an obvious violation of the Florida Constitution. Alex Sink would've easily won the special election for a FL-13 that included all of St. Petersburg. There's absolutely no reason why there shouldn't be separate Tampa and St. Petersburg districts, as I've noted and made maps of in the past. Is there any reason you chose not to have FL-15 take the (non-FL-12/FL-14) remainder of Hillsborough County to avoid an addition county split?

This plan was based on minimal changes to comply with the court. I didn't change the FL-15/17 split much at all. There are certainly variations that make greater changes in Hillsborough and Polk, but I don't know if the legislature will have a taste for that, though it may come into play for political reasons.

[jimrtex]

Okeechobee is in FL-17 and Indian River is in FL-8, unchanged from the current map. The default DRA colors when captured in a screen shot don't distinguish well between FL-8 and 17. I noticed it after it was posted, so I made FL-17 bluer for the map of south FL.

Putting all of Columbia in FL-5 drops BVAP below 40%, and the rationale for a district able to elect a black candidate of choice is weaker.

Is district 5 whether Jax to Orlando or Jax to Tallahassee required under the Florida Constitution or permissible under the US Constitution? (see in particular the district court's decision in Virginia, where the excessive county splits were one of the primary reasons for rejecting the Virginia plan).

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Thanks for the maps, Muon, I learned a lot!

[muon2]

Okeechobee is in FL-17 and Indian River is in FL-8, unchanged from the current map. The default DRA colors when captured in a screen shot don't distinguish well between FL-8 and 17. I noticed it after it was posted, so I made FL-17 bluer for the map of south FL.

Putting all of Columbia in FL-5 drops BVAP below 40%, and the rationale for a district able to elect a black candidate of choice is weaker.

Is district 5 whether Jax to Orlando or Jax to Tallahassee required under the Florida Constitution or permissible under the US Constitution? (see in particular the district court's decision in Virginia, where the excessive county splits were one of the primary reasons for rejecting the Virginia plan).

The FL SC decision identifies FL-5 as a district that violates some of the 2nd-tier constitutional rules to create a district able to elect the candidate of choice of the black minority. It finds that an east-west orientation meets that goal within the FL constitution better than a north-south orientation and specifically orders that change. The minority language cited in the FL constitution as a 1st-tier requirement is

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In light of VA I don't know if it would be federally required, but the FL court was basing it on their interpretation of the FL Constitution.

[jimrtex]

Okeechobee is in FL-17 and Indian River is in FL-8, unchanged from the current map. The default DRA colors when captured in a screen shot don't distinguish well between FL-8 and 17. I noticed it after it was posted, so I made FL-17 bluer for the map of south FL.

Putting all of Columbia in FL-5 drops BVAP below 40%, and the rationale for a district able to elect a black candidate of choice is weaker.

Is district 5 whether Jax to Orlando or Jax to Tallahassee required under the Florida Constitution or permissible under the US Constitution? (see in particular the district court's decision in Virginia, where the excessive county splits were one of the primary reasons for rejecting the Virginia plan).

The FL SC decision identifies FL-5 as a district that violates some of the 2nd-tier constitutional rules to create a district able to elect the candidate of choice of the black minority. It finds that an east-west orientation meets that goal within the FL constitution better than a north-south orientation and specifically orders that change. The minority language cited in the FL constitution as a 1st-tier requirement is

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In light of VA I don't know if it would be federally required, but the FL court was basing it on their interpretation of the FL Constitution.

If a compact district can not be drawn, how can the result of a failure to draw such a district deny or abridge a racial minority the equal opportunity to participate in the political process?

[muon2]

The FL Constitution lays out its principles for redistricting in two tiers. There is no precedence within a tier, but tier 1 principles are superior to tier 2 principles.

Tier 1
Plan and districts shall not be drawn with political intent
Districts shall provide for minorities to elect their candidates of choice
Districts shall be contiguous

Tier 2
Districts shall be as nearly equal in population as practicable
Districts shall be compact
Districts shall use existing political and geographic boundaries

The FL SC found that both parties in the suit had a plan that included a FL-5 district designed to meet the tier 1 principle for minority representation, and then decided between the two based on tier 1 political intent and tier 2 compactness and political boundaries. They didn't consider a plan with compact districts but no minority district since none were part of the case. I read that as saying that a  minority district able to elect a candidate of choice need not meet the best application of tier 2. It doesn't say whether a minority district FL-5 would be required in the face of a pure tier 2 plan.

[Vosem]

So in the end, are FL democrats going to pick up new seats?

Not really clear. The court's ruling basically sacrifices Gwen Graham and David Jolly, who are both put in districts that are too far right and left, respectively, to be held. That is a trade. Daniel Webster's district shifts from a leans Republican district to a pure tossup. Changes in the south are likely to be minimal in terms of political effect, so there will still be an open Democratic-held Republican-leaning seat (FL-18, Patrick Murphy's seat), and a Republican-held tossup seat (FL-26, Carlos Curbelo's seat) that might shift slightly in favor of the Democrats, but not so far that it is unholdable for Curbelo in a neutral year.

In conclusion: Republicans look likelier than not under the new map to gain 2 seats next year, FL-2 and FL-18, while Democrats seem likelier than not to gain FL-13. Two seats -- Daniel Webster's (currently FL-10, but I think its successor is numbered FL-9 on Muon's map) and FL-26 are Democratic targets, while Republicans essentially have nowhere further to expand beyond the 2 seats they are likelier than not to gain. Somewhere between D+1 and R+1 seems like the likeliest result, therefore; not too big of a deal in terms of overall House control.

[free my dawg]

It looks like wholesale changes in the northern and central districts will be difficult to avoid given the directed changes to FL-5, 13 and 14. FL-3 will get pushed well to the east probably picking up Putnam and most of Marion counties as FL-2 will have to come to the doorstep of Gainesville as it gives up most of Leon and other counties on the GA border. FL-4 may have to chop into FL-6 depending on how FL-3 is configured. The effects of FL-3 and 4 on FL-6 could then push it to take up Deltona from FL-7.

Here's how the north might look under that scenario.

Any clues on the breakdown of FL-7?

[traininthedistance]

It looks like wholesale changes in the northern and central districts will be difficult to avoid given the directed changes to FL-5, 13 and 14. FL-3 will get pushed well to the east probably picking up Putnam and most of Marion counties as FL-2 will have to come to the doorstep of Gainesville as it gives up most of Leon and other counties on the GA border. FL-4 may have to chop into FL-6 depending on how FL-3 is configured. The effects of FL-3 and 4 on FL-6 could then push it to take up Deltona from FL-7.

Here's how the north might look under that scenario.

Any clues on the breakdown of FL-7?

Eyeballing it, probably something like R+5 PVI? Seminole County was about 51% McCain and the bits of Orange look like they're probably mostly Republican.

[muon2]

Here are the political and demographic breakdowns for all of my versions of the new CDs. Since I used DRA there are only 2008 pres votes and no independent candidates. The PVI is calculated as the Obama% minus 53.7% and rounded to a whole number (negative numbers are R+). Demographics show VAP populations over 20%).

FL-1: R+21 (W 77.6%)
FL-2: R+20 (W 78.4%)
FL-3: R+8 (W 73.8%)
FL-4: R+19 (W 76.6%)
FL-5: D+11 (W 49.2%, B 41.0%)
FL-6: R+3 (W 79.8%)
FL-7: R+5 (W 69.7%)
FL-8: R+9 (W 80.4%)
FL-9: D+1 (W 54.0%, H 29.0%)
FL-10: D+12 (W 40.9%, B 23.2%, H 29.1%)
FL-11: R+10 (W 83.1%)
FL-12: R+6 (W 84.8%)
FL-13: D+3 (W 77.8%)
FL-14: D+7 (W 50.1%, H 27.2%)
FL-15: R+8 (W 69.2%)
FL-16: R+5 (W 83.5%)
FL-17: R+10 (W 75.1%)
FL-18: R+2 (W 74.6%)
FL-19: R+11 (W 77.2%)
FL-20: D+28 (W 29.9%, B 47.1%)
FL-21: D+10 (W 66.7%)
FL-22: D+4 (W 69.5%)
FL-23: D+8 (W 48.9%, H 37.0%)
FL-24: D+33 (B 50.8%, H 33.6%)
FL-25: R+9 (W 21.2%, H 70.8%)
FL-26: R+4 (H 69.6%)
FL-27: R+4 (H 73.6%)

[RBH]

is it possible to get the Corrine seat compliant by just going Jacksonville to Tallahassee? or could they have to go into Gainesville to scoop some extra people?

[Skill and Chance]

is it possible to get the Corrine seat compliant by just going Jacksonville to Tallahassee? or could they have to go into Gainesville to scoop some extra people?

The Court specifically references the LWV proposed district, which does not include any of Gainesville, as an appropriate alternative solution for the district.

[Nyvin]

is it possible to get the Corrine seat compliant by just going Jacksonville to Tallahassee? or could they have to go into Gainesville to scoop some extra people?

The Court specifically references the LWV proposed district, which does not include any of Gainesville, as an appropriate alternative solution for the district.

Can you really get a majority African American district with just Tallahassee and Jacksonville though?   I tried on DRA and I couldn't get past 46%,  I know the numbers have probably changed since then but it seems really hard to get 50% African American without Gainesville.   I know Corrinne Brown will go nuts if it isn't. 

[muon2]

is it possible to get the Corrine seat compliant by just going Jacksonville to Tallahassee? or could they have to go into Gainesville to scoop some extra people?

The Court specifically references the LWV proposed district, which does not include any of Gainesville, as an appropriate alternative solution for the district.

Can you really get a majority African American district with just Tallahassee and Jacksonville though?   I tried on DRA and I couldn't get past 46%,  I know the numbers have probably changed since then but it seems really hard to get 50% African American without Gainesville.   I know Corrinne Brown will go nuts if it isn't.  

The court opinion specifically said that the district does not need 50% BVAP if it can otherwise elect the candidate of choice of the black minority. The was testimony that 60+% BVAP of the primary and 60+% D in the general would be sufficient.

[Nyvin]

is it possible to get the Corrine seat compliant by just going Jacksonville to Tallahassee? or could they have to go into Gainesville to scoop some extra people?

The Court specifically references the LWV proposed district, which does not include any of Gainesville, as an appropriate alternative solution for the district.

Can you really get a majority African American district with just Tallahassee and Jacksonville though?   I tried on DRA and I couldn't get past 46%,  I know the numbers have probably changed since then but it seems really hard to get 50% African American without Gainesville.   I know Corrinne Brown will go nuts if it isn't.  

The court opinion specifically said that the district does not need 50% BVAP if it can otherwise elect the candidate of choice of the black minority. The was testimony that 60+% BVAP of the primary and 60+% D in the general would be sufficient.

Ahh,  okay.    So FL-9 doesn't have to stay a hispanic minority-majority district either then?   It can be split between black and hispanic?

[RBH]

experimenting a little

Version B: Gainesville in FL5






FL1: 67.5-32.5 JMC (75w-14aa-5h)
FL2: 63.9-36.1 JMC (77w-14aa-5h)
FL3: 57.6-42.4 JMC (74w-12aa-9h)
FL4: 65.1-34.9 JMC (76w-10aa-7h)
FL5: 65.5-34.5 Obama (46aa-43w-6h)
FL6: 50.8-49.2 Obama (77w-10h-10aa)
FL7: 51.6-48.4 JMC (66w-18h-10aa)
FL8: 55.8-44.2 JMC (77w-9aa-9h)
FL9: 69.5-30.5 Obama (37h-32.5w-24aa)
FL10: 50.8-49.2 JMC (61w-18h-14aa)
FL11: 55.9-44.1 JMC (79w-10h-7aa)
FL12: 51.5-48.5 JMC (79w-11.5h)
FL13: 55.6-44.4 Obama (75w-11aa-8h)
FL14: 61.5-38.5 Obama (45w-29h-21aa)
FL15: 55.4-44.6 JMC (66w-18h-11aa)
FL16: 51.6-48.4 JMC (79.5w-11h-6aa)
FL17: 53.4-46.6 JMC (66w-22h-9aa)
FL18: 51.7-48.3 Obama (70w-14h-12aa)
FL19: 57.3-42.3 JMC (72w-18h-7aa)
FL20: 81.5-18.5 Obama (50aa-26w-19h)
FL21: 63-37 Obama (63w-21h-12aa)
FL22: 57.9-42.1 Obama (66w-18h-10.5aa)
FL23: 62.4-37.6 Obama (47w-38h-10aa)
FL24: 86.4-13.6 Obama (53.5aa-32h-11w)
FL25: 56-44 JMC (71h-21w-6aa)
FL26: 50.1-49.9 JMC (69h-20w-9aa)
FL27: 50.7-49.3 JMC (73h-18w-6aa)

Version A: No Gainesville in FL5



FL2: 67.1-32.9 JMC (78w-14aa-5h)
FL3: 54.6-45.4 JMC (72w-14aa-9h)
FL5: 64.7-35.3 Obama (44.5w-44.1aa-6.5h)

[muon2]

That peninsula into Ocala will not pass the FL constitution. The wrap of FL-10 around FL-5 and the FL-5 finger into Sanford in the RL map have been cited by the court as failing tier-2 requirements. Can you justify it?

[Torie]

The court order forces FL-13 to be entirely within Pinellas which forces FL-12 to shift and cover more of north Pinellas. It forces FL-14 entirely within Hillsborough with adjustments to FL-15 and 17. The retreat of FL-5 to the north creates the likelihood that FL-10 becomes a district taking up all of Orlando with other high-minority suburbs. In my version it ends up 40.9% WVAP, 23.2% BVAP, 29.1% HVAP and 65.6% Obama 08. That forces corresponding changes to all the adjacent CDs with FL-7 picking up more of Orange and northern Lake, FL-9 picking up much of the old FL-10 in Polk and Orange, and FL-11 picking up most of Lake.

What is FL-09's political composition?

In 2008 it was 54.2/45.8 for Obama which is equivalent to D+0.5 or a toss up. The shape assumes no change to FL-8 (R+9) and minimal changes to FL-17 (R+10), but if those are reworked by the legislature then FL-9 is likely to end up more Pub.

So it becomes very hard to avoid 2 Obama seats in the Orlando area now, fascinating.  I wonder if the FLSC would go for the 4 way split of Orange, though.  Is it possible to split Orange only 2 or 3 ways and still have a majority-minority district?

The opinion did not care about the Orange splits, and didn't even find that FL-10 needed to be redrawn. Of course it has to be anyway, and I assume the FL legislature will make it a minority opportunity district as a Dem vote sink. The part of 8 in Orange isn't very big and could easily chop elsewhere.

Is FL-08 a no change CD in your plan? If it is, and is changed to knock it out of Orange, in order to make FL-09 more Pub, would not that be viewed as evidencing partisan intent?  To justify it, one would need to find a non-patisan reason for doing it, like losing a chop. would it not?  Does your FL-10 CD match the Hispanic percentage in what is the current Grayson CD?  

How did the Pub argue that the crossover into St. Petersburg did not evidence partisan intent? Didn't doing that, create another chop?

FWIW, Wasserman on the Charlie Cook site, thinks the court decision is glorious news for the Pubs, assuming an Orlando Dem sink will fly with the Court. I am not sure it will fly myself, unless it reduces the chop count, or is the only way to create on CD that will be reasonably calculated to elect a candidate of a minority's choice, as opposed to other maps, that will either create zero or two such CD's. In particular, that chop of his FL-09 into Osceola County will be hard to justify absent some minority CD justification. The Court seems to dislike extra chops.

[Nyvin]

Does the district that takes up Osceola county have to be hispanic majority per the VRA or can it be an African American and Hispanic mix?