FL: Rereredistricting

[Torie]

Torie,
Why didn't they simply back your redistricting plan. It appears this is much more favorable to the dems.

And could you give the estimates for this please too?
Thanks!

Windjammer, I suggest going to this guy here.  He is give numbers right now for 2012 for some of these districts, and giving commentary on them.  He is a great person to listen to when it comes to Florida politics, he is the one who helped come up with the Leon County in one district's thing.

You sure he is using 2012 numbers? And where would he get them so quickly?

[windjammer]

Apparently, Cuberlos' seat is becoming more rep.

[Torie]

Not that Corrine Brown will get her seat back, but I think she has a case against FL-05. Chopping Tallahassee that way gives her an opening. Granted, it would make FL-05 less black, but if she just wants to lash out, there are grounds now I think.

[windjammer]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tp4InZCDMrwOery63f5F-EhU8-JDENFMITvI0tniun0/htmlview?pli=1&sle=true#gid=284402054

They really wanted to kill Graham politically.

[jimrtex]

Not that Corrine Brown will get her seat back, but I think she has a case against FL-05. Chopping Tallahassee that way gives her an opening. Granted, it would make FL-05 less black, but if she just wants to lash out, there are grounds now I think.

The Florida NAACP was an intervening defendant in the appeal to the Florida Supreme Court.  We could still see a federal VRA challenge.

The Florida NAACP was also a sponsor of this lawsuit on a stick measure in the first place.  At the time, Brown got James Clyburn who was head of the Congressional Black Caucus at the time to complain to the national NAACP that their Florida branch was going to cost her seat by sponsoring the measure.

[windjammer]

Ros Lehtinen's seat is becoming more democratic (Obama won by 9 now), while Curbelos is becoming less democrat (but still won by Obama by a 4 points margin)

[jimrtex]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tp4InZCDMrwOery63f5F-EhU8-JDENFMITvI0tniun0/htmlview?pli=1&sle=true#gid=284402054

They really wanted to kill Graham politically.

Couldn't Graham run in FL-5?

[Gass3268]

Good to see two Democratic leaning seats in the Orlando area.

[JerryArkansas]

Here is a map of the results by 2012 president by the new map being proposed.



Colour scale is one used by Miles.

[Nyvin]

So it might be possible that FL-7 is competitive once Mica retires?

[JerryArkansas]

So it might be possible that FL-7 is competitive once Mica retires?

It's not a might, it will be competitive if he were ever to retire this decade. 

[windjammer]

Some analysts on twitter believe that this plan risks to be struck down because of CD9.

[ElectionsGuy]

I assume this new plan will hurt the Republicans. How many seats could it cost them?

Most likely 2-3 seats.

[windjammer]

I assume this new plan will hurt the Republicans. How many seats could it cost them?

Well, they might not lose any seat. Here is the best scenario for FL Republicans:
-They will pick up Graham's seat and they will lose Webster's district and Jolly's district. But they would pick up Murphy's district.
-Lehtinen, Cuberlos and Mica all are elected.
Result: no net change.

The best scenario for dem:
-Gwen Graham's district is picked up by the biggest moron Southerland: R+1
-Webster's district and Jolly's district are picked up: D+2
-Joe Mica retires or gets defeated either in the primary or in the general: D+1
-Cuberlos still loses (I mean his district has still been won by Obama by 4.2 points): D+1
-Lehtinen finally loses (her district has been won by 9 points by Obama in 2012) or decides to retire: D+1
So Democrats could pick up 4 district with the new districts. Of course that won't happen .
Democrats will likely hold the same number of districts of pick up 1 seat. But yeah, the new districts are much more favorable to them. I mean, Graham's district was already a republican leaning seat after all.

[Torie]

Some analysts on twitter believe that this plan risks to be struck down because of CD9.

Unless there is a CD to be drawn in the Orlando area that will elect a minority, I don't see the legal problem here. Which brings up my version of FL-09, which arguably might elect a minority, but I digress.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Here is a map of the results by 2012 president by the new map being proposed.



Colour scale is one used by Miles.

Thank you!

[Fuzzybigfoot]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tp4InZCDMrwOery63f5F-EhU8-JDENFMITvI0tniun0/htmlview?pli=1&sle=true#gid=284402054

They really wanted to kill Graham politically.

Couldn't Graham run in FL-5?

I don't see why she wouldn't. 

[Torie]

Given the negative reaction to the split of Leon County, and the split of the Hispanics in the Orlando area, and that I suspect FLOTUS will want the blacks separated from the Hispanics in Orlando, below is my map redo. FL-07 circa 2008 has a 3% Pub PVI, and FL-10 has 2% Dem PVI (and is 23.9% BVAP).

I like my original map better, but perhaps matters will evolve in the direction below.

[Antonio the Sixth]

FLOTUS

Florida Of The United States?

[Torie]

FLOTUS

Florida Of The United States?

It must have been coined during Bush v. Gore, suggesting it had usurped the SCOTUS or something. It doesn't make much sense does it? 

[jimrtex]

FLOTUS

Florida Of The United States?

It must have been coined during Bush v. Gore, suggesting it had usurped the SCOTUS or something. It doesn't make much sense does it? 

Ordinarily it is referred to as SCOFLA, with an obvious pronunciation.

[Antonio the Sixth]

FLOTUS

Florida Of The United States?

It must have been coined during Bush v. Gore, suggesting it had usurped the SCOTUS or something. It doesn't make much sense does it? 

Ordinarily it is referred to as SCOFLA, with an obvious pronunciation.

That's what I assumed as well.

[windjammer]

The consideration of a full Leon/partial Jax map may be the only thing right now that's preventing Gwen Graham from closing up shop (with the potential for a more divided Orlando doing the same for Webster).

Could you explain please?

[Torie]

The consideration of a full Leon/partial Jax map may be the only thing right now that's preventing Gwen Graham from closing up shop (with the potential for a more divided Orlando doing the same for Webster).

Could you explain please?

If all of Leon County is included, which means adding a dollop of white Democratic voters, the CD would be more viable for her to run in, is what I think was meant.

[windjammer]

Has someone the numbers about the potential changes?