looks like Tsipras has folded
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 19, 2024, 03:29:58 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  International General Discussion (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  looks like Tsipras has folded
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 [7]
Author Topic: looks like Tsipras has folded  (Read 7512 times)
ag
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,828


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #150 on: July 14, 2015, 03:31:32 PM »

Selling Parthenon hurts exactly nobody. It is an expensive heirloom, that could fetch a good load of cash. You are out of cash. Why not sell it?

You know, I think this is probably one of those 'if you don't get it, there's no way to explain it to you' sorts of things.

I'm pretty sure he grew up in the USSR, then made a career for himself in the West.  probably has a nice portfolio and everything.  such people hold "property rights" sacrosanct above all other rights.  the post-Castro Cuban emigres are horrible too.  I went to college with one -- she was really hot, but both of us saw fate pass us by as I apologized for Castro.

Wrong on most counts. Did grow up in the USSR. Studied in the US, true. Is Mexico "West"? Because that is where I have been since. Have very little saved: none invested in the market (university sallary, kids, schools cost money).  And, though I do have healthy respect private property, I do not view it as "sacrosant", nor do I consider it more important than basic human rights: quite the contrary. I do, however, find that private property is frequently very useful in protecting those rights - but that is another matter.

that's even worse then; property has a psychological hold on you and it hasn't even treated you all that well.

I am an economist. I know what role it plays Smiley  I also remember the Soviet Union too well. Which provides ample empirical confirmation for what happens if you are flippant with property rights. Trust me, it is not at all pretty.
Logged
ag
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,828


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #151 on: July 14, 2015, 03:33:02 PM »



Perhaps not, but it is a fact in most countries around the world, and you must agree that a blow to national pride as severe as selling symbols of the country (like the Parthenon for Greece) would cause would create a much more powerful, and possibly violent, backlash than raising the same amount of money from slightly higher taxes or spending slightly less money on public services, even if a robot might calculate that the people would be better off in the first case.

This is, of course, why I am not serious about the Parthenon. I find this to be ridiculous, but I know the world I live in Smiley
Logged
ag
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,828


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #152 on: July 14, 2015, 03:34:50 PM »

I think the disturbing thing for Eurozone countries is that, relatively speaking, Syriza is a moderate party. Greece has (and always has) an unusually strong far-left and far-right blocs both in and (more importantly, but less obvious for foreigners) out of parliament forces that oppose liberal democratic capitalism itself. Perhaps the EU bigwigs are under the impression that the humiliation of Tsipras et al. will lead the Greeks to swing back to the ND-centrist-PASOK block, especially with shiny young leaders for all three wings. This is playing with fire, to be honest; if a more disturbing and violent party arises Merkel, Rutte, Stubb and the like may regret their populist kneejerk anti-Syrizism.

I am afraid, they do not much care. That would provide unimpeachable grounds for kicking Greece out of the EU. From which point on it is not their responsibility. No matter who governs Grecce, Greek jackboots are unlikely to march across Europe - that is, unfortunately, the difference between Greece and Germany.
Logged
Nhoj
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,224
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.52, S: -7.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #153 on: July 14, 2015, 03:39:55 PM »

Of course it was Lenin who signed humiliating peace terms with the Germans. Kerensky is the guy who tried to continue fighting a losing war.
Logged
🦀🎂🦀🎂
CrabCake
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,181
Kiribati


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #154 on: July 14, 2015, 03:42:55 PM »

Even in that respect, the loss of such a key geostrategic country to nationalistic demagoguery would be quite a blow to what little remains of idealism in the European project, no? I also imagine the knock-on effects upon the Baltics would be pretty serious and ominous; Greece would be like a larger, more powerful and even more sullen Serbia.
Logged
ag
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,828


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #155 on: July 14, 2015, 03:51:49 PM »
« Edited: July 14, 2015, 03:54:52 PM by ag »

Of course it was Lenin who signed humiliating peace terms with the Germans. Kerensky is the guy who tried to continue fighting a losing war.

Kerensky was a guy who did not believe he had the right to make major decisions, as he was an unelected caretaker (he was only in - very limited - power for a few months anyway - the original Provisional PM was Prince Lvov). Elections to the Constituent Convention were held, as planned, shortly after the Bolshevik coup. And the Bolsheviks lost miserably (got about a quarter of the seats) - upon which loss they send in the guards to kick out the duly elected representatives of the people.

BTW, not that I care much about it, but the war was hardly losing - within a year the Germans collapsed themselves, and Russia would have been on the winning side.
Logged
ag
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,828


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #156 on: July 14, 2015, 03:54:18 PM »

Even in that respect, the loss of such a key geostrategic country to nationalistic demagoguery would be quite a blow to what little remains of idealism in the European project, no? I also imagine the knock-on effects upon the Baltics would be pretty serious and ominous; Greece would be like a larger, more powerful and even more sullen Serbia.

In what sense is Greece "key" these days? It could be more than replaced with Turkey, anyway Smiley

The main effect on the Baltics would be to make them much more stringently pro-Western in general, and pro-German in particular.
Logged
Nhoj
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,224
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.52, S: -7.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #157 on: July 14, 2015, 04:01:31 PM »

Of course it was Lenin who signed humiliating peace terms with the Germans. Kerensky is the guy who tried to continue fighting a losing war.

Kerensky was a guy who did not believe he had the right to make major decisions, as he was an unelected caretaker (he was only in - very limited - power for a few months anyway - the original Provisional PM was Prince Lvov). Elections to the Constituent Convention were held, as planned, shortly after the Bolshevik coup. And the Bolsheviks lost miserably (got about a quarter of the seats) - upon which loss they send in the guards to kick out the duly elected representatives of the people.

BTW, not that I care much about it, but the war was hardly losing - within a year the Germans collapsed themselves, and Russia would have been on the winning side.
Well I am more trying to make the point that SWEs analogy doesn't really fit or perhaps that his ideal revolutionary will sign a even more terrible deal in exchange for consolidating power.
As for the war that's true, but the russian army was in terrible shape to hold out another year.
Logged
World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 34,220


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #158 on: July 14, 2015, 06:23:15 PM »

I understand that. But there should have been some limit, some point beyond which people started to realize that debt forgiveness would help Greece vastly more than it would hurt Germany, some point at which the insistence on taking the harshest imaginable line gave way to, if nothing else, pity. The fact that this didn't even come close to happening puts one in mind more of the attitudes that people have towards enemy Others than towards European partners, and I'm honestly outright repulsed by the nature and tone of political discourse within Germany. Again, maybe I'm too softhearted.

In the history of interactions between creditors and debtors, even when forgiving debt would help the debtor far more than it would hurt the creditor (as you say), normally the creditor does not forgive the debt, and in fact normally no one even expects him to. Germany is behaving the same way people have behaved basically since the invention of money.

The sensibility that debt should be forgiven under such circumstances, even if it's historically very atypical, has been common on the non-useless left for a while now, is the thing.
Logged
Hydera
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,545


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #159 on: July 14, 2015, 06:41:38 PM »

I understand that. But there should have been some limit, some point beyond which people started to realize that debt forgiveness would help Greece vastly more than it would hurt Germany, some point at which the insistence on taking the harshest imaginable line gave way to, if nothing else, pity. The fact that this didn't even come close to happening puts one in mind more of the attitudes that people have towards enemy Others than towards European partners, and I'm honestly outright repulsed by the nature and tone of political discourse within Germany. Again, maybe I'm too softhearted.

In the history of interactions between creditors and debtors, even when forgiving debt would help the debtor far more than it would hurt the creditor (as you say), normally the creditor does not forgive the debt, and in fact normally no one even expects him to. Germany is behaving the same way people have behaved basically since the invention of money.

The sensibility that debt should be forgiven under such circumstances, even if it's historically very atypical, has been common on the non-useless left for a while now, is the thing.

Half of their debt was already forgiven in 2011-2012.

http://money.cnn.com/2011/10/26/news/international/european_union_crisis_summit/

Their inability to recover has more to do with the state of their economy which for three decades operated as a pyramid scheme feeding foreign loans, while producing never enough to pay back what they promised they owe.
Logged
ag
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,828


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #160 on: July 14, 2015, 08:19:22 PM »

I understand that. But there should have been some limit, some point beyond which people started to realize that debt forgiveness would help Greece vastly more than it would hurt Germany, some point at which the insistence on taking the harshest imaginable line gave way to, if nothing else, pity. The fact that this didn't even come close to happening puts one in mind more of the attitudes that people have towards enemy Others than towards European partners, and I'm honestly outright repulsed by the nature and tone of political discourse within Germany. Again, maybe I'm too softhearted.

In the history of interactions between creditors and debtors, even when forgiving debt would help the debtor far more than it would hurt the creditor (as you say), normally the creditor does not forgive the debt, and in fact normally no one even expects him to. Germany is behaving the same way people have behaved basically since the invention of money.

The sensibility that debt should be forgiven under such circumstances, even if it's historically very atypical, has been common on the non-useless left for a while now, is the thing.

1. Persuade the German voters, and you will get it.

2. Forgiving the debts would not be enough, unfortunately.
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,563
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #161 on: July 14, 2015, 10:40:31 PM »

Of course it was Lenin who signed humiliating peace terms with the Germans. Kerensky is the guy who tried to continue fighting a losing war.

Kerensky was a guy who did not believe he had the right to make major decisions, as he was an unelected caretaker (he was only in - very limited - power for a few months anyway - the original Provisional PM was Prince Lvov). Elections to the Constituent Convention were held, as planned, shortly after the Bolshevik coup. And the Bolsheviks lost miserably (got about a quarter of the seats) - upon which loss they send in the guards to kick out the duly elected representatives of the people.

BTW, not that I care much about it, but the war was hardly losing - within a year the Germans collapsed themselves, and Russia would have been on the winning side.

as someone who does care - the Bolsheviks had to use every last cigarette to win the civil war.  or at least had to prepare that way. and they were waiting on the German (and pan-European) revolution, etc.  and besides they might not have held power for a full year if they continued war that whole time.

all of which makes it hard to regard Brest-Litovsk as a Bolshevik tactical error.
Logged
World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 34,220


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #162 on: July 14, 2015, 10:50:56 PM »

I understand that. But there should have been some limit, some point beyond which people started to realize that debt forgiveness would help Greece vastly more than it would hurt Germany, some point at which the insistence on taking the harshest imaginable line gave way to, if nothing else, pity. The fact that this didn't even come close to happening puts one in mind more of the attitudes that people have towards enemy Others than towards European partners, and I'm honestly outright repulsed by the nature and tone of political discourse within Germany. Again, maybe I'm too softhearted.

In the history of interactions between creditors and debtors, even when forgiving debt would help the debtor far more than it would hurt the creditor (as you say), normally the creditor does not forgive the debt, and in fact normally no one even expects him to. Germany is behaving the same way people have behaved basically since the invention of money.

The sensibility that debt should be forgiven under such circumstances, even if it's historically very atypical, has been common on the non-useless left for a while now, is the thing.

1. Persuade the German voters, and you will get it.

See, that's frustrating, because if the their position is (in the formal sense) rational, and certainly not bad for them, it's hard to see how one would make them care that it's so bad for other people. It's not possible to persuade people whose understanding of what's to be valued and what's at stake is so radically and fundamentally different from one's own understanding. Especially if one believes that their position is gravely morally wrong and would have difficulty maintaining any discourse about it for long without getting very, very angry.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

I know that, but are you willing to claim that it's not a panacea therefore it shouldn't be done? You were making the exact opposite point about the goal of enhancing Greece's 'competitiveness' in the other thread.
Logged
ag
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,828


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #163 on: July 15, 2015, 09:56:10 AM »

Of course it was Lenin who signed humiliating peace terms with the Germans. Kerensky is the guy who tried to continue fighting a losing war.

Kerensky was a guy who did not believe he had the right to make major decisions, as he was an unelected caretaker (he was only in - very limited - power for a few months anyway - the original Provisional PM was Prince Lvov). Elections to the Constituent Convention were held, as planned, shortly after the Bolshevik coup. And the Bolsheviks lost miserably (got about a quarter of the seats) - upon which loss they send in the guards to kick out the duly elected representatives of the people.

BTW, not that I care much about it, but the war was hardly losing - within a year the Germans collapsed themselves, and Russia would have been on the winning side.

as someone who does care - the Bolsheviks had to use every last cigarette to win the civil war.  or at least had to prepare that way. and they were waiting on the German (and pan-European) revolution, etc.  and besides they might not have held power for a full year if they continued war that whole time.

all of which makes it hard to regard Brest-Litovsk as a Bolshevik tactical error.

The civil war did not start until 7 or 8 months after the events we are talking about. Except in a few places, the independence of which they claimed to recognize, they were in full control. They were able to kick out the freshly elected popular representatives with barely a murmur. The war started seriously after June 1918.

I am not saying BL was their error. The army was in no shape to fight - and, more importantly, they did not care about the treaties before the world revolution. It was not an error: it was ideology. And, of course, it was their ticket to power: the decision to stop was popular among the soldiers. Tellingly, at that point it was their main popular support (as confirmed by voting returns in November). Basically, their take-over was a military coup by the low ranks.
Logged
ingemann
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,210


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #164 on: July 15, 2015, 09:58:50 AM »
« Edited: July 15, 2015, 10:01:14 AM by ingemann »

1. Persuade the German voters, and you will get it.

See, that's frustrating, because if the their position is (in the formal sense) rational, and certainly not bad for them, it's hard to see how one would make them care that it's so bad for other people. It's not possible to persuade people whose understanding of what's to be valued and what's at stake is so radically and fundamentally different from one's own understanding. Especially if one believes that their position is gravely morally wrong and would have difficulty maintaining any discourse about it for long without getting very, very angry.

Okay

Let's start with this. Have you send several thousands dollars to Greece personal? I don't blame you if you haven't and find you something of a idiot if you have. The German taxpayers doesn't want to send their money for the same reason, they have better things to use them on.

It doesn't help that the Greeks themselves seem to have better things to use their money on, than helping the Greek state or poor Greeks. So why should the Germans care more for the Greek economy or poor Greeks than the Greeks themselves do?

Also the last seven year the Germans have heard a lot of comments about them being a bunch of "Nazi pigs", for some reason that kind of rhetoric tend to be somewhat counter productive, it absolute didn't help, when this changed from pictures and slogans at demonstations, to a new government adopting more diplomatic versions of the same language.

At last the whole Syriza governments negotiation tactic have burned a lot of goodwill, and the German fear to do anything which look like a reward of that kind of negotiation tactic. This is in fact a bigger problem than all the other I have mentioned. Germans may or may not feel sorry for the Greeks. But it would have long term consequences for future negotiation for Germany, if anybody saw the Greek negotiation tactic as a viable option in negotiations with Germany. That's something Germany can't afford as a state. The pure realpolitik is that Germany have to take a much harder stance against Greece, than they had to do, if Greece had chosen a less poisonous negotiation tactic.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

I know that, but are you willing to claim that it's not a panacea therefore it shouldn't be done? You were making the exact opposite point about the goal of enhancing Greece's 'competitiveness' in the other thread.[/quote]

The debt doesn't really matter right now, Greece interests on it (the next ten years) are no higher than if Greece had a debt of 50-60%, because the interest are low and Greece doesn't begin to pay off the debt itself before sometime in the 2020ties. Removing the debt would have little other results than enable Greece to borrow again. That's not in the creditors interests, it's not in the EU or EZ's interests and it's not in the long term interest of Greece as a state.

Greece need to either begin to collect taxes (my prefered option) or lower the Greek budget until it's around the revenues they do collect. In the seven years since the financial crisis, they have not done anything to improve the collection of taxes, in fact they have active said no in help to improve their taxation system, what's even worse is that while we all thought that corruption was the main problem in tax collection, but there's some indication that incompetence are just as big problem. This sadly leave cuts as the only viable option, short of leaving the Euro (which I personal think Syriza should have used the last 6 month to work instead of debt forgiveness).

link in Swedish

http://www.dn.se/nyheter/forre-skattechefen-domer-ut-grekiska-skatteverket/?bcsi-ac-90eef810f62c04e8=1FB1E07000000105XJZGbLgUeS8D75MULqv4vr7ukEBgBQAABQEAAFBPCgWgjAAAAAAAAL+UGwA=

translation

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
🦀🎂🦀🎂
CrabCake
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,181
Kiribati


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #165 on: July 15, 2015, 10:28:10 AM »

Ultimately, Germany owes a lot to the Eurozone. It allows them to have a weak currency and boosts their exports. You'd think they'd be interested in making sure it sticks together...
Logged
ingemann
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,210


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #166 on: July 15, 2015, 10:43:06 AM »

Ultimately, Germany owes a lot to the Eurozone. It allows them to have a weak currency and boosts their exports. You'd think they'd be interested in making sure it sticks together...

1: It was not Germany which supported the establishment of the Euro, that was a price they had to pay for their reunification.

2: The adoption of the Euro have resulted in a higher GDP growth in south and east Europe plus Ireland, than it have resulted in in Germany.

3: Giving the Greek debt forgiveness are moore dangerous of EZ than not giving them it.

Many countries enjoyed the benfit of the Euro for years (cheap loans and a stable currency), but the movement the price for enjoying those benefit came, suddenly it was up to other to pay the price.
Logged
Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,300
United Kingdom


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #167 on: July 15, 2015, 02:13:13 PM »


all of which makes it hard to regard Brest-Litovsk as a Bolshevik tactical error.

Mind you, the Germans not having to fight in the east meant they almost won in the West.
Logged
eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,501
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #168 on: July 15, 2015, 02:56:48 PM »
« Edited: July 15, 2015, 06:50:06 PM by eric82oslo »

Ultimately, Germany owes a lot to the Eurozone. It allows them to have a weak currency and boosts their exports. You'd think they'd be interested in making sure it sticks together...
3: Giving the Greek debt forgiveness are moore dangerous of EZ than not giving them it.

When can that be more dangerous, when IMF has repeatedly claimed that that's the only way in which the Greek economy will not collaps entirely? If the new EZ agreement is carried out as planned, IMF estimates that the Greek debt to GDP will reach at least 200% already within the next 2 years. Unless you're Japan or the US, or have an enormous export sector like China, that's simply not sustainable.
Logged
ag
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,828


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #169 on: July 15, 2015, 04:01:32 PM »

Ultimately, Germany owes a lot to the Eurozone. It allows them to have a weak currency and boosts their exports. You'd think they'd be interested in making sure it sticks together...

If Germans wanted a week currency, they would have found a cheaper way of doing this without giving up the Mark. It seems pretty obvious they do not want a week currency.
Logged
ingemann
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,210


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #170 on: July 16, 2015, 02:28:00 AM »

Ultimately, Germany owes a lot to the Eurozone. It allows them to have a weak currency and boosts their exports. You'd think they'd be interested in making sure it sticks together...
3: Giving the Greek debt forgiveness are moore dangerous of EZ than not giving them it.

When can that be more dangerous, when IMF has repeatedly claimed that that's the only way in which the Greek economy will not collaps entirely?

A complete Greek collapse while unfortunal would have little real effect on EZ. While telling any of the other south European countries that the Greek negotiation tactic was a viable option would be potential devastating. Spain if they adopted the Greek negotiation tactic could fully destroy the EZ, and they would be to big a country to save.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

The size of Greek debt is meaningless, it's how much they pay off on it which matters. Greece pay next to nothing off of their debt and their interests are minimals. As such the large focus on it right now only serve one purpose. To get rid of the debt, so that they don't need to reform and can borrow cheaply again (and the "evil bankers"(tm) would borrow cheaply to them again, if they could see Germany paid off their debt). Of course in the long term Greece need a write off, and everyone know they will get it, when they have reformed.
Logged
traininthedistance
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,547


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #171 on: July 16, 2015, 10:14:54 AM »

Ultimately, Germany owes a lot to the Eurozone. It allows them to have a weak currency and boosts their exports. You'd think they'd be interested in making sure it sticks together...

If Germans wanted a week currency, they would have found a cheaper way of doing this without giving up the Mark. It seems pretty obvious they do not want a week currency.

Of course the Germans don't want a "weak currency", to do so would be to blaspheme against their de facto national religion.

This does not, however, mean that a "weak currency" is a bad thing for the Germans– quite the opposite, in fact.
Logged
eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,501
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #172 on: July 16, 2015, 11:02:29 AM »

Ultimately, Germany owes a lot to the Eurozone. It allows them to have a weak currency and boosts their exports. You'd think they'd be interested in making sure it sticks together...
3: Giving the Greek debt forgiveness are moore dangerous of EZ than not giving them it.

When can that be more dangerous, when IMF has repeatedly claimed that that's the only way in which the Greek economy will not collaps entirely?

A complete Greek collapse while unfortunal would have little real effect on EZ. While telling any of the other south European countries that the Greek negotiation tactic was a viable option would be potential devastating. Spain if they adopted the Greek negotiation tactic could fully destroy the EZ, and they would be to big a country to save.


I'm not talking about the euro zone, I'm talking about Greece. If all you care about is the euro zone, then you sound like an egoist to me. Btw, Spain has never had a debt problem, it has long been one of the least indebted countries in Western Europe, so I have no idea what you're talking about. Their structural problems are completely different, it's all about unemployment and an unfortunate housing bubble just like we saw in the US and now in China. That's more a sign of excessive prosperity than disaster in a way.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 [7]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.066 seconds with 13 queries.