1856: Fremont/Dayton vs Pierce/Davis vs Filmore/Donelson

[Incipimus iterum]

Tickets remain the same except Pierce wins the democratic Convention and chooses his Sec of War Jefferson Davis as his running mate. Discuss with maps.

[Mr. Smith]

Given how spectacularly unpopular Pierce was, probably something like:

This.

Fillmore takes the South, Fremont takes most of the North and California, and Pierce takes the middle slave states and the more conservative parts of New England.

[Sir Mohamed]

Given how spectacularly unpopular Pierce was, probably something like:

This.

Fillmore takes the South, Fremont takes most of the North and California, and Pierce takes the middle slave states and the more conservative parts of New England.

Fillmore becomes president again, though winning the popular vote with around 40%.

[TaylorFillmore]

Fremont/Dayton 160 Electoral Votes
Fillmore/Donelson - 79 Electoral Votes
Pierce/Davis-57 Electoral Votes

[Mechaman]

Given how spectacularly unpopular Pierce was, probably something like:

This.

Fillmore takes the South, Fremont takes most of the North and California, and Pierce takes the middle slave states and the more conservative parts of New England.

No just no.  First off, those would not have been the "more conservative" parts of New England at the time (hell, the Know Nothings did best at the local and state levels in 1854 in Massachusetts and Rhode Island).  Second, if those states voted quite strongly for Fremont without Pierce running for re-election I fail to see how Pierce would somehow win them with the slavery issue as prevalent as it was.  Pierce was less popular than AIDS and Gonorrhea at this point in time and no amount of homeboy effect would help him in late 1850s New Hampshire.  Things had radically changed during Pierce's presidency to the point where voting for a Democrat in New England was thought of as a borderline sin.  Pierce's residency would have little effect besides rallying immigrants to the voting base in fear of the Know Nothing candidacy who would otherwise feel alienated by Buchanan's moderate hero aerobics on that matter (1856 might be the first and only election where the Democratic candidate attacked the Republican for being too pro-papist).

Also, I am not certain the Know Nothings would have THAT much appeal in the South.  They only won Maryland largely by being the main alternative to Democrats in those states.  Pierce is going to win at least a few of those states (Texas, Arkansas, Alabama, you get the idea) who will vote for whichever candidate is seen as the most favorable to the traditional Jacksonian program (which does include slavery).  With the slavery issue at the top of everyone's minds I doubt many would prefer a party whose main appeal was to anti-Irish racists and protestants supremacists that only had a very moderate hero stance on the slavery issue.  Fillmore might get a few more votes just for being known as the Great Compromiser, but outside of that I see it looking more like this:

Pierce still loses, but slavery was too big of an issue and the Know Nothings made the most MH stance on the issue.  That would not help them down south.

[Mr. Smith]

Given how spectacularly unpopular Pierce was, probably something like:

This.

Fillmore takes the South, Fremont takes most of the North and California, and Pierce takes the middle slave states and the more conservative parts of New England.

No just no.  First off, those would not have been the "more conservative" parts of New England at the time (hell, the Know Nothings did best at the local and state levels in 1854 in Massachusetts and Rhode Island).  Second, if those states voted quite strongly for Fremont without Pierce running for re-election I fail to see how Pierce would somehow win them with the slavery issue as prevalent as it was.  Pierce was less popular than AIDS and Gonorrhea at this point in time and no amount of homeboy effect would help him in late 1850s New Hampshire.  Things had radically changed during Pierce's presidency to the point where voting for a Democrat in New England was thought of as a borderline sin.  Pierce's residency would have little effect besides rallying immigrants to the voting base in fear of the Know Nothing candidacy who would otherwise feel alienated by Buchanan's moderate hero aerobics on that matter (1856 might be the first and only election where the Democratic candidate attacked the Republican for being too pro-papist).

Also, I am not certain the Know Nothings would have THAT much appeal in the South.  They only won Maryland largely by being the main alternative to Democrats in those states.  Pierce is going to win at least a few of those states (Texas, Arkansas, Alabama, you get the idea) who will vote for whichever candidate is seen as the most favorable to the traditional Jacksonian program (which does include slavery).  With the slavery issue at the top of everyone's minds I doubt many would prefer a party whose main appeal was to anti-Irish racists and protestants supremacists that only had a very moderate hero stance on the slavery issue.  Fillmore might get a few more votes just for being known as the Great Compromiser, but outside of that I see it looking more like this:

Pierce still loses, but slavery was too big of an issue and the Know Nothings made the most MH stance on the issue.  That would not help them down south.

I based that off Nathaniel Hawthorne's (a like-minded friend to Pierce) writings of the time, Pierce's serious unpopularity, and Buchanan and Fillmore being fairly competitive in the Upper South and Louisiana

Nonetheless it's pretty clear your model has a lot more dots connecting. So yeah, well played sir well played