Which Is More Likely: Democratic Victory in OK vs. GOP Win in DC
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 03:19:55 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  Which Is More Likely: Democratic Victory in OK vs. GOP Win in DC
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: ?
#1
Democratic Win in Oklahoma
 
#2
Republican Win in DC
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 73

Author Topic: Which Is More Likely: Democratic Victory in OK vs. GOP Win in DC  (Read 2056 times)
H. Ross Peron
General Mung Beans
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,406
Korea, Republic of


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: -1.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: July 09, 2015, 10:33:00 PM »

Starting a weekly poll series on which of the two scenarios are more likely in the next fifty years.

Is it more likely that a Democratic Party presidential will win Oklahoma or that a Republican Party presidential candidate will win in Washington DC?
Logged
Thunderbird is the word
Zen Lunatic
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,021


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: July 09, 2015, 10:59:57 PM »

Republican win in DC, reason being the continuing trend of the cities becoming increasingly white and gentrified. Granted it's a long way off and it would have to be a very different looking Republican Party from the current one that could appeal to Socially Liberal yuppies.
Logged
YaBoyNY
NYMillennial
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,469
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: July 10, 2015, 04:00:41 AM »

Republican win in DC, reason being the continuing trend of the cities becoming increasingly white and gentrified. Granted it's a long way off and it would have to be a very different looking Republican Party from the current one that could appeal to Socially Liberal yuppies.

You need to appeal to more than socially liberal yuppies to win D.C.
Logged
VPH
vivaportugalhabs
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,682
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: July 10, 2015, 09:09:36 AM »

Brad Henry 2016
Logged
The Mikado
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,677


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: July 10, 2015, 12:12:50 PM »

While DC is "gentrifying," a large chunk of the white population are employees of the federal government and are, by definition, not going to be very friendly to the GOP and its calls to cut government spending. Civil servants/bureaucrats and people who run businesses that cater to that clientele (restaurant owners near federal office buildings etc) are never going to vote Republican.
Logged
TDAS04
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,463
Bhutan


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: July 10, 2015, 01:11:24 PM »

Democrats winning Oklahoma I guess. 
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: July 10, 2015, 01:24:14 PM »

DC is never going to happen for R's. Neither is OK for D's, but at least its possible in a hypothetical massive 65/35 landslide.
Logged
Clark Kent
ClarkKent
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,480
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 10, 2015, 04:02:08 PM »

Democratic victory in Oklahoma, if only because it's actually happened (1964 was the last time). Also, the Republican margin in Oklahoma is much smaller than the Democratic margin in D.C.
Logged
/
darthebearnc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,367
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 10, 2015, 05:51:33 PM »

D OK
Logged
andrew_c
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 454
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: July 11, 2015, 02:53:35 AM »

For a Democrat to win Oklahoma, a 17% R to D swing is needed. For a Republican to win DC, a 44% D to R swing is needed. Based on math, option 1 is more likely. But in reality, both scenarios are highly unlikely.
Logged
Mr. Illini
liberty142
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,838
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: July 11, 2015, 11:30:33 PM »
« Edited: July 11, 2015, 11:32:06 PM by Mr. Illini »

Republicans will never win the District of Columbia unless the parties completely reverse roles.

Gentrification/socially liberal yuppies has nothing to do with anything.

1) Socially liberal yuppies have a tendency to be pretty fiscally liberal as well, regardless of how much money they have.

2) DC's socially liberal yuppies are even different than any other cities, as a huge portion either work for the government, for a company contracting with the government, or with a group trying to influence the government (mostly liberal advocacy groups)
Logged
ag
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,828


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: July 13, 2015, 10:59:32 PM »

Well, you could imagine a three-way race, in which to, essentially, Republican candidates get into a tie, with a Dem winning on 35% of the vote. There is no such scenario for DC.
Logged
TJ in Oregon
TJ in Cleve
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,952
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.13, S: 6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: July 14, 2015, 10:01:44 PM »

A Republican winning DC is the single most unlikely outcome possible for either of the two parties winning an state or DC.
Logged
RINO Tom
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,999
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: July 14, 2015, 10:08:50 PM »

The one that's EVER happened.
Logged
cwt
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 362


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: July 20, 2015, 08:30:49 PM »

Republican win in DC, reason being the continuing trend of the cities becoming increasingly white and gentrified. Granted it's a long way off and it would have to be a very different looking Republican Party from the current one that could appeal to Socially Liberal yuppies.

There's also the trend of all states becoming increasingly Hispanic.

I think it's way more likely for Oklahoma to become a Hispanic state (which could potentially lean Democratic. I'm not saying the Democrats have the Hispanic vote locked up.) than for D.C. to become a white city.
Logged
Chunk Yogurt for President!
CELTICEMPIRE
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,235
Georgia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: July 20, 2015, 09:22:46 PM »

This is the only scenario in which DC could go Republican:

Libertarian Republicans take Congress and the White House, massively cut federal bureaucracy and many former federal workers leave DC.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.038 seconds with 13 queries.