EU population estimates for 2015 out (EUROSTAT): 508.2 million people

[Tender Branson]

Jan. 1, 2014 to Jan. 1, 2015 population changes:

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http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/6903510/3-10072015-AP-EN.pdf/d2bfb01f-6ac5-4775-8a7e-7b104c1146d0

[jimrtex]

Apportionment of representatives in EuroCongress:

Austria                8,545,908   13
Belgium               11,231,213   18
Bulgaria               7,223,938   11
Croatia                4,236,063    7
Cyprus                   852,504    1
Czech Republic        10,525,347   17
Denmark                5,638,530    9
Estonia                1,314,545    2
Finland                5,461,512    9
France                65,983,874  104
Germany               80,970,732  127
Greece                10,858,086   17
Hungary                9,863,183   16
Ireland                4,615,693    7
Italy                 60,789,140   96
Latvia                 1,993,782    3
Lithuania              2,932,367    5
Luxembourg               556,319    1
Malta                    427,364    1
Netherlands           16,865,008   26
Poland                38,011,735   60
Portugal              10,401,062   16
Romania               19,904,360   31
Slovakia               5,418,649    9
Slovenia               2,061,980    3
Spain                 46,476,032   73
Sweden                 9,696,110   15
United Kingdom        64,559,135  101

Source for population Eurostat Your key to European statistics  I used: "Population change - Demographic balance and crude rates at national level (demo_gind) and used the average population for 2014.   There were a lot of notes of "p" for provisional and "e" for estimate.

The total population was 507,414,171.   The number of Eurorepresentatives was determined by cube root rule to be 798, each representing an average of  635,857 persons.

The apportionment was done using Huntington-Hill, with a guarantee of one representative for each country, including the two EuroWyomings of Luxembourg and Malta.

[eric82oslo]

If these population changes continue at the same rate/speed, it will mean that Sweden already next year will have more inhabitants than Hungary, and within a few years they might/will probably even surpass Portugal, Czech Republic and Greece. Now that's quite an achievement, to surpass no less than four countries within the span of a decade or so!

Also, by 2021, Turkey should have a bigger population than Germany. So were Turkey to be included as a new EU member, they might demand the same number of Europarlamentarians as Germany, at 99.

Within the next 10-15 years, EU might have expanded from 28 to (at least) 34 countries, if all Balkan countries (including Turkey) eventually do get access. 35 if Moldova shows interest as well, and Putin doesn't decide to attack them for that wish. We'd probably have to wait at least 20 years for countries like Ukraine, Iceland, Norway and Switzerland to become members/apply for membership though. For Belarus and Russia to become members (if ever), we'd have to wait at (the very) least 30-50 more years I guess.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So were Turkey to be included as a new EU member, they might demand the same number of Europarlamentarians as Germany, at 99.

The EU will never actually accept Turkey as a member, and with the mess the EU is in at the moment I'm not sure Turkey even wants it any longer.

[eric82oslo]

So were Turkey to be included as a new EU member, they might demand the same number of Europarlamentarians as Germany, at 99.

The EU will never actually accept Turkey as a member, and with the mess the EU is in at the moment I'm not sure Turkey even wants it any longer.

Yeah, with today's leaders, especially Merkel, and most probably Greece/Cyprus as well, that won't happen of course. However, Merkel is starting to look old and tired lately, so I wouldn't be surprised if she steps down after the next Bundestag election.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Turkey has been having quite the population boom. They have a really high birth rate. If Turkey had a smaller population of maybe 15-20 million, then it would be possible for them to join. But with the anti muslim sentiment in Europe I don't think Turkey and it's close to 80 million muslims would be welcome.

[eric82oslo]

Turkey has been having quite the population boom. They have a really high birth rate. If Turkey had a smaller population of maybe 15-20 million, then it would be possible for them to join. But with the anti muslim sentiment in Europe I don't think Turkey and it's close to 80 million muslims would be welcome.

Also I think the whole Syria civil war and ISIS being next door, has made it less like they will join anytime soon. Maybe in another generation though. 20-25 years from now things might look very differently.

[politicus]

Turkey has been having quite the population boom. They have a really high birth rate. If Turkey had a smaller population of maybe 15-20 million, then it would be possible for them to join. But with the anti Muslim sentiment in Europe I don't think Turkey and it's close to 80 million Muslims would be welcome.

Also I think the whole Syria civil war and ISIS being next door, has made it less like they will join anytime soon. Maybe in another generation though. 20-25 years from now things might look very differently.

Nah, that is highly unlikely. Turkey will end up with a population of about 100 mio. before it stabilizes, which would make them by far the biggest country in EU, with only Germany even remotely close. It is not just, or even primarily,  religion that blocks them, but having a country with different values from the Western European core of EU (think animal rights, ethnic minority rights, gender issues, gay rights, prison system, role of the state and military etc.). And with an enormous sense of self importance and a very nationalist and uncompromising political tradition it is just not going to fit in. Turkish EU membership would disturb the entire balance of power in Europe. No country bigger than France/UK/Italy can ever join the EU.

You can find Western European countries with some of the same problematic elements as Turkey, but Turkey combines some of the worst aspects of France, Poland, Spain and Italy all in one very big (by European standards) country. Even if it was thoroughly Westernized on social issues it would also need to be de-Kemalized and lose the Kurdish areas + make Istanbul an independent city state to be cut down to an acceptable size. Then there might be a possibility.

In short: ain't gonna happen.

(if Istanbul ever by some weird twist of history became an independent city state, that would be another matter)

[YaBoyNY]

I actually remember how 10 years ago everybody said Germany was heading for a major population decline, and that it would be under 80 million by the mid 2010's.

[Tender Branson]

I actually remember how 10 years ago everybody said Germany was heading for a major population decline, and that it would be under 80 million by the mid 2010's.

Germany's population would actually decline a lot if there were no immigration.

There's a 200.000 birth deficit each year (look at the chart I posted above), which means the population would decline by some 2 Mio. every decade.

But thanks to the immigration (600.000 each year now), that deficit is more than balanced.

[YaBoyNY]

I actually remember how 10 years ago everybody said Germany was heading for a major population decline, and that it would be under 80 million by the mid 2010's.

Germany's population would actually decline a lot if there were no immigration.

There's a 200.000 birth deficit each year (look at the chart I posted above), which means the population would decline by some 2 Mio. every decade.

But thanks to the immigration (600.000 each year now), that deficit is more than balanced.

I know, but it's always interesting to note how unpredictable these things are.