Democratic share of Mississippi white vote, post-1964
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  Democratic share of Mississippi white vote, post-1964
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Author Topic: Democratic share of Mississippi white vote, post-1964  (Read 3982 times)
TDAS04
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« on: July 11, 2015, 11:14:50 AM »

How much of the white vote in Mississippi do you think the Democratic presidential nominee received in Mississippi, 1968 onward?

Most of these are my estimates, but the last three are from exit polls I've seen.

1968 (Humphrey): 4%
1972 (McGovern): 6%
1976 (Carter): 35%
1980 (Carter): 31%
1984 (Mondale): 14%
1988 (Dukakis): 16%
1992 (Clinton): 19%
1996 (Clinton): 21%
2000 (Gore): 16%
2004 (Kerry): 14%
2008 (Obama): 11%
2012 (Obama): 10%

These are my best estimates based on what I know.  Information on the black vote and turnout would be helpful.  Does anyone know about these elections?  It might be interesting to see data on elections involving Carter and Clinton.  I doubt that Carter ever reached 40%, or that Clinton obtained even 25% of Mississippi whites.

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Clark Kent
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« Reply #1 on: July 11, 2015, 11:58:48 AM »

35% for Carter in 1976 seems a little low, considering he actually won the state. Maybe I don't understand demographics entirely, but are there really enough minorities in Mississippi to let Carter win the state with only 35% of the "white" vote?
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #2 on: July 11, 2015, 01:06:51 PM »

Overall, the estimates are pretty good.  I would agree that the 1976 percentage estimate for Carter would have been a little low.  The black voter turnout then was probably not as high--only in 1984 when Jesse Jackson ran for President and a major GOTV effort in the South did the percentage start to approach the white population.  This would explain why the Democrats continue to get 40+% of the vote in most Southern states even today.

I also think that Clinton's percentage in 1992 and 1996 are higher than the OP estimates--in a 2 way race.  Perot's overall percentages in Mississippi were among the lowest in the country (in the 5-10 percent range)--but I am sure that his vote was almost exclusively white--so the 19-21% is probably close to the actual result.

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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #3 on: July 11, 2015, 01:22:23 PM »

35% for Carter in 1976 seems a little low, considering he actually won the state. Maybe I don't understand demographics entirely, but are there really enough minorities in Mississippi to let Carter win the state with only 35% of the "white" vote?

In the 1970's, blacks were >30% of the population, but the turnout was still fairly low. Its probably closer to 40% than 30% of the white vote for the Carter elections.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #4 on: July 11, 2015, 01:35:47 PM »

In 1996, Clinton got 24% of White voters:
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/MSPxp.html

In 1992, he received 22% of the White vote.
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/1998/states/MS/polls/MS92PH.html

Gore received 17% of the White vote in MS.
http://www.cbsnews.com/campaign2000results/election/index.html
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buritobr
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« Reply #5 on: July 12, 2015, 05:48:50 PM »

I think the white vote for Carter in Mississippi decreased more than four points from 1976 to 1980. If you check black counties like Sunflower, Coahoma and Tunica, you will see that not only the turnout increased from 1976 to 1980 but also that the % for Carter increased too (Ford had more black votes than Reagan). This is an evidence that there was more black turnout in 1980 than in 1976 and larger % of the black vote for Carter in 1980 than in 1976.
So, the decrease of the White vote was more significant.
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Sumner 1868
tara gilesbie
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« Reply #6 on: July 14, 2015, 01:01:27 AM »

35% for Carter in 1976 seems a little low, considering he actually won the state. Maybe I don't understand demographics entirely, but are there really enough minorities in Mississippi to let Carter win the state with only 35% of the "white" vote?

Yes. Mississippi's "Negro" population was reportedly 37 percent by the 1970 census. As Carter almost certainly won at least ninety percent of black voters in the state, less than 40 percent of whites was sizable enough for a victory.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #7 on: July 14, 2015, 11:04:48 AM »

35% for Carter in 1976 seems a little low, considering he actually won the state. Maybe I don't understand demographics entirely, but are there really enough minorities in Mississippi to let Carter win the state with only 35% of the "white" vote?

Yes. Mississippi's "Negro" population was reportedly 37 percent by the 1970 census. As Carter almost certainly won at least ninety percent of black voters in the state, less than 40 percent of whites was sizable enough for a victory.

I would guess he won "at least 90%" vs. Reagan (in 1980), but I would not be surprised if Ford kept Carter in the 80s in 1976.
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jeron
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« Reply #8 on: July 14, 2015, 12:13:40 PM »

35% for Carter in 1976 seems a little low, considering he actually won the state. Maybe I don't understand demographics entirely, but are there really enough minorities in Mississippi to let Carter win the state with only 35% of the "white" vote?

Yes. Mississippi's "Negro" population was reportedly 37 percent by the 1970 census. As Carter almost certainly won at least ninety percent of black voters in the state, less than 40 percent of whites was sizable enough for a victory.

Carter got 82% of the black vote nationwide, so he almost certainly did not win 90 percent in Mississippi.
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Sumner 1868
tara gilesbie
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« Reply #9 on: July 14, 2015, 05:17:41 PM »

35% for Carter in 1976 seems a little low, considering he actually won the state. Maybe I don't understand demographics entirely, but are there really enough minorities in Mississippi to let Carter win the state with only 35% of the "white" vote?

Yes. Mississippi's "Negro" population was reportedly 37 percent by the 1970 census. As Carter almost certainly won at least ninety percent of black voters in the state, less than 40 percent of whites was sizable enough for a victory.

Carter got 82% of the black vote nationwide, so he almost certainly did not win 90 percent in Mississippi.

Mississippi black voters generally vote more Democratic than the national average. For example, in 1992 and 1996, Clinton won 90 and 95 percent of black voters in the state respectively, while winning only 83 and 84 percent nationwide.

Also, a New York Times survey at the time suggested that the average percentage of black voters for Carter in the Deep South was 95 percent.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
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« Reply #10 on: July 16, 2015, 06:39:27 PM »

Why did Carter do so well amongst blacks in 1976? I mean as governor he was decidedly neutral on the civil rights issue, and even gave some wink wink nod nod's to segregationists. Not to mention that Ford was not some fire breathing Conservative segregationist either. He was a northern moderate country clubber who supported civil rights.
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buritobr
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« Reply #11 on: July 18, 2015, 03:48:30 PM »

It is important to observe that Jimmy Carter performed better in Hinds County in 1980 than he did in 1976. In 1976, Ford won by a 23 point margin. In 1980, Reagan won by a 10 point margin. Hinds was more white in that time, but maybe, the black population there reduced the Republican margin.

In rural white counties in the Southeast of the state, there was a large swing for Reagan.
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gespb19
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« Reply #12 on: July 19, 2015, 07:55:52 PM »

In rural white counties in the Southeast of the state, there was a large swing for Reagan.

Yes and these were the same counties that backed McDaniel in the primary last year and Lott in the 1988 senate race. Carter did best in the northern part of the state (won both the black-majority delta and the white-majority hills region).
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #13 on: September 03, 2019, 09:58:24 AM »

Bumping this up considerably, but I have a question, which I am curious about. How much of the Mississippi black vote did Nixon receive in 1972? McGovern only got 20% overall, and had to have gotten a virtually negligible (6% or less) share of the white vote. Given that Mississippi was a third black in the early 1970s (comparable to today), is it plausible Nixon won around 15-20% of the black vote? Moreover, McGovern won only the blackest counties in the state (Claiborne, Holmes, Jefferson).
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #14 on: September 05, 2019, 06:26:57 AM »

I would have thought Carter could have had a decent chance to win it since he won it in 1976 and almost won it in 1980. I get that he had a lot of blacks voting for him, but the fact he did not hit 40 is a shock
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