The Democratic Revival???

[/]

Is there any chance that the Independent who caucuses with the GOP will switch over? I'm assuming there isn't, but it would be nice if there was

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^^ not giving you an answer right now, but I will say it's not viewed as likely by observers since he represents Kansas.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Moore!!! Moore!!! Moore!!!

A man who literally wants to ban homosexuality (not just gay marriage - being gay, period)? I know this is just a TL, but surely you don't support that.

I don't support that at all, I think it's disgusting that people like Justice Moore want to ban people from freely living there life. Actually over the last few months, I have moved to a libertarian position of just live your life how you see fit and as long as you don't force me to be a LGBT person, I'm fine with you doing it with whoever you want. My story of Mr. Moore is a more personal one as I met him last year and spoke with him about issues including the Ten Commandments which I agree with him on.

I don't think he even wants to do that in real life.  He is just strongly committed to traditional marriage and other moral issues.  If I lived in Alabama, I would vote for him for Governor in real life (and, while I don't agree with banning a lifestyle, I would still vote for him over a Democrat who is presumably pro-abortion in this timeline).

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

To be clear, I only had Mr. Moore take that position for my own personal plot device purposes - it's not based on anything he's said in real life. Beasley's abortion position is not something I ever came up with when planning, but I'd imagine he'd advocate for something along the lines of a ban at 20 or 25 weeks, with some exceptions. Basically something that would be a good-faith attempt to keep people from voting Moore despite disagreeing with him on homosexuality, while also not depressing Black Belt turnout too much. I know that may seem pretty conservative in terms of an abortion position, but considering I had Schweitzer agree to a ban at 30 weeks, and Beasley would have to position himself to the right of that........

Beasley's success or failure rides on the pro-homosexual sex vote (which is a >60% majority in AL in this TL)  and how big it goes for him. As previously revealed, the exit poll showed that only 75% of the pro-homosexuality vote went for Beasley. While that exit poll was ultimately biased slightly towards Moore, there are still enough Classic Conservative and ExtremeRepublican sorts of voters to cause whatever the ultimate final result will be.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Pennsylvania Governor - Tom Wolf (D)

82% in - Wolf 49.8, Gerlach 48.1, Others 2.1
Final - Wolf 49.5, Gerlach 48.3, Others 2.2

A hold for the Democrats in Pennsylvania, with the re-election of Governor Tom Wolf.

R: 25 √
D: 19 (+5)
Recount needed: 1

But we have something much bigger as well...



We can now project, without any doubt, that the Republicans will keep their majority in the United States Senate, regardless of independent caucusing decisions and the outstanding races. Because, we can now project that the Republicans will win the Senate Race in Pennsylvania. With this win in Pennsylvania, the Republicans clinch 51 seats and another 2 years in the senate majority.

Pennsylvania Senate: Mike Fitzpatrick (R)

82% in - Fitzpatrick 49.4, Casey 48.7, Others 1.9
Final - Fitzpatrick 50.1, Casey 48, Others 1.9

R: 51 (+1)
D: 40
I: 4

If Independents caucus as they currently do:

R: 52 (+1)
D: 43

Now, the Associated Press has called the Alabama Governor's Race for Roy Moore. We still have it as too close to call, but Moore is preparing to speak. Let's listen in.

(applause)
*Moore takes a deep breath*

Moore: Ah, the air in Alabama tastes far much better now. You have done it, my people - you have banned homosexuality in Alabama!

(applause)

All the courts, all the democrats, all the pundits, they said it couldn't be done. They said the era of homosexuality was here to stay. But we've had enough! We stood up and said we've had enough!

(applause)

I'd like to congratulate Mr. Beasley on his strong campaign. He has done much better than most democrats do in Alabama, and was really able to turn out the pro-homosexuality vote. There were points in the night where I was very much preparing for defeat, and I even wrote a full concession speech. But thanks to you, we are barely spared of having any need for that. So let's be rid of it!

*Moore raises up a set of papers apparently containing his would-be concession speech, and rips them up, spreading them across the front row of the audience.*

(applause)

That is the future you have rejected! That is the future you have realized you were walking into, woke up from, and viciously refused to enter! I cannot thank you enough for your support and for your bravery to support what you know to be right, and once I take office, you have my pledge that I will immediately work to implement the policies I have promised regarding the terrible stain of homosexuality!

(applause)

Schweitzer may think he can stop us, but he cannot! Schweitzer is powerless in this area! And even if this agenda cannot pass in any other state, it will always remain the agenda of Alabama. No court will stop us! No order or law will stop us. Unless the national guard is literally going to start handing out marriage licenses and letting people who are now sex offenders out of Prison, there will be nothing that can ever bring homosexuality back to Alabama!

(applause)

I invite the homosexual citizens of Alabama to repent. Understand that their deviant behavior must stop. Apologize for the curse they brought upon their state, and immediately force their sexual feelings to the deepest, darkest corners of their body, never to be acted upon again. Those that can get into straight relationships, we invite them to do so. For those that understand they have done wrong and correct their behavior, there will be no punishment.

But for those who continue, even after we pass the necessary laws, to act in homosexual means, will be punished severely. Nothing is out of bounds in terms of enforcing this law - we will even institute random late-night searchings of homes for clues or acts of homosexual activity, and no loony, politically correct, scholar of the 4th amendment will stop us!

(applause)

I'd also like to thank my wife, my campaign staff, and everyone who donated to my campaign. This victory could not have been possible with all of you! Again, I'm very proud because this was not an easy thing to do. My opponent was a very attractive person to vote for because he represented the status quo. The status quo is easy for people to go with! But the status quo is not the right course of action here. The status quo means the endurance of homosexuality! The status quo means the endurance of the stain that has placed in Alabama. This is a time to be brave and fight for change. You have done the first part by electing me. It is now up to us to stand strong no matter what adversaries come our way. If you are a county clerk and a court tries to force your hand, stand up and say no! If you are taken to jail, I will simply pardon you over and over again until any PC police give up!!! We will keep fighting until everyone understands that no homosexuality is the law in Alabama!!!

(applause)

I offer you the best of luck during the remainder of Bentley's tenure. You may still encounter homosexuality during the next few months. But in January, it will stop. Thank you!

(moore leaves to thunderous applause)

[This account no longer in use.]

oh wow

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Wulfric, about what time is it right now?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Slightly after 12:30

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Ohio Senate - Sherrod Brown (D)

92% in - Brown 49.4, DeWine 48.9, Others 1.7
Final - Brown 50.4, DeWine 47.8, Others 1.8

R: 51 (+1)
D: 41
I: 4

If Independents caucus as they currently do:

R: 52 (+1)
D: 44

A sigh of relief for Senate Democrats with the re-election of Sherrod Brown. This is a seat republicans really thought they could flip, but it narrowly stays in democratic hands. Now, if we look at the senate map, only three seats being decided tonight remain uncalled. All of them contain republican senators running for re-election - Rehberg in Montana, Thompson in Wisconsin, Steelman in Missouri. The democrat is ahead in Montana but we cannot yet count on his lead sticking around. The Democrats in Wisconsin and Missouri are still in play, although we would be surprised if Missouri actually flipped given what happened in Arizona and Georgia. Let's go over to our Panel.

Cooper: Let's talk about we just heard in Mr. Moore's speech. Not backing off at all, calling on gay people to repent and pledging to even break the 4th amendment if needed to stop homosexuality. What's going on with him?

Crowley: Well, we have to hope that he's only boasting and will see reason. Whether Schweitzer would actually send in the national guard if he doesn't, well, that's a question that only Schweitzer can answer. But these are real people. They aren't the objects that Moore treats them as. And does he really think businesses will want to stay in his state? Does he want a large drop in his state's population? Does he want to be impeached? If I was Governor Bentley, I'd be on the phone with Moore right now trying to get some reason into him, fearful for the future of my state.

Brazile: And we have to hope Beasley doesn't admit total defeat on the issue when he speaks. Yes, assuming the associated press call is correct, he won't have any real political power, but if he comes out and says 'moore won, we have to consent to his new laws and the elimination of homosexuality', it's going to send the democratic party of Alabama right back to the 40% line, no questions asked. It's going to send a message that democrats have no backbone on this issue, at least not in the deep south. It's going to be a huge boost to the anti-gay movement. He needs to forget about being gracious and perhaps even encourage civil disobedience. I know that's unconventional after you've lost an election, but Moore is going to be a terrible governor, terrible for the people of Alabama. He will do nothing good for the state, he's just going to spend the next 4 years, less if the legislature tires of it and impeaches him, on this useless campaign against homosexuality. And once he's voted out of office in 2022, which he will be, it will quickly prove to be useless and his successor will welcome homosexuality back based on at least a political calculation if not actual moral beliefs.

Cooper: Gingrich - is this the governor you really want?

Gingrich: If I lived in Alabama, I wouldn't have voted for him in the primary. But that's beside the point. I think it's too much to expect him to shoot down his campaign promises at his high moment, his victory speech. He's going to have to think about the business future and logical future of his state, and I think once he does that he will back down. Yes, he will stop gay marriage or any other form of legal recognition, that's a fact.  But I think he'll lay off the sex ban, maybe even allow limited anti-discrimination measures outside of marriage. Maybe not immediately, but once he realizes that the agenda he laid out in his victory speech has more negatives than positives.

Cooper: All right, let's go back to Wolf.



Georgia Governor - Will go to Runoff between Casey Cagle (R) and Kasim Reed (D)

97% in - Cagle 49.83, Reed 45.90, Some Libertarian 4.27
Final - Cagle 49.53, Reed 46.18, Some Libertarian 4.29

Alabama Governor - Roy Moore (R)

98% in - Moore 48, Bentley 47.3, Others 4.7
Final - Moore 47.9, Bentley 47.1, Others 5

R: 26 √
D: 19 (+5)
Recount needed: 1
Runoff needed: 1

Two important calls - first, you just heard Moore give his victory speech, now our decision desk officially calls the race in Alabama for Moore. That is a hold for the republicans. The second is that in Georgia, there will be a runoff for Governor. This is really an accomplishment for the Georgia Democrats, as unlike in 2008, there was not an african american presidential candidate at the top of the ballot this time. This sets up a one month campaign to the December runoff. Can the Democrats actually win the Governorship of Georgia? - you'll find out next month.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

1:00 AM EST



Ohio Governor - Tim Ryan (D)

96% in - Ryan 48.6, Husted 48.2, Others 3.2
Final - Ryan 49.3, Husted 47.7, Others 3.1

Wisconsin Senate - Ron Kind (D)

75% in - Kind 49.4, Thompson 49, Others 1.6
Final - Kind 50.3, Thompson 48, Others 1.7

Two pickups for the democrats, the first for Ohio Governor. Democrat Tim Ryan will succeed the retiring republican John Kasich. Second, in the Wisconsin Senate race, republican incumbent senator Tommy Thompson has gone down.

Also, the polls have just closed in the Alaska Governor's race, but we are not able to make a projection at this time. Let's look at the latest numbers for all the uncalled races:

Montana Senate (57% in):

Tester (D): 50%
Rehberg (R): 44%
Others: 6%

Missouri Senate (83% in):

Steelman (R): 48.7%
Kander (D): 46.2%
Others: 5.1%

Alaska Governor (1% in):

Harris (R): 50%
Walker (I): 47%
Others: 3%

Wisconsin Governor (75% in):

Walker (R): 50.1%
Taylor (D): 49.1%
Others: 0.8%

The senate map updates to:

R: 51 √
D: 42
I: 4

If Independents caucus as they currently do:

R: 52 √
D: 45

The Democratic gain in Wisconsin puts the senate back to a no-change situation. Both of the races still being decided are republican held seats, winning either one of them would have the democrats ending the night with a net gain in the senate. Also remember that we do not know what will happen with the Collins seat in Maine, someone will have to be appointed until a special election can be held, but it's unclear if outgoing governor Michaud or incoming governor Collins will make that appointment. If Michaud does it, it will be a democratic pickup, at least until the special election. If Collins does it, a republican hold, again, at least until the special election.

Let's look at the governors map:

R: 26 √
D: 20 (+6)
Recount needed: 1
Runoff needed: 1

A democratic gain of 6 seats now, with the pickup in Ohio. Left to be decided tonight is the re-election of the two Governor Walkers in Wisconsin and Alaska. There's also a runoff next month for the governorship of Georgia, and the incredibly close Florida governor's race will be subject to an automatic hand recount.

We now have U.S. Representative Dino Rossi to interview. He represents the 8th congressional district of Washington State, and easily won re-election tonight. First, Mr. Rossi, congratulations on your re-election!

Rossi: Thank you. You know, Democrats say they are going to pick up this seat all the time, they went hard for it under the time of both Mr. Reichert and myself, but they don't realize that this is a center-right district. I provide excellent representation and constituent service, and I'm very happy the voters see it that way.

Wolf: Why was the house the best part of tonight's results for the republicans - The senate is going to be a wash or a small democratic gain, the governors are quite frankly a huge disappointment for the party, but the house looks likely to have a small republican gain at the end of the night. Why do you think the house the one place where that happened?

Rossi: I think it's because we're the closest to the people. Senators and Governors represent states, Presidents represent the country, so there it is easier for Democrats to, in a neutral year this one, you know, muddy the waters and proclaim that their values align with the people. And there are certainly good Democrats, even Schweitzer hasn't been all bad, but most of them are just manipulators. With the house of representatives, you are living right among the people, and they can see that republican candidates are the ones who best align with the values of the people.

Wolf: Also, as I'm sure you're aware, there is a lot of speculation about whether you will run for President in 2020. Will you?

Rossi: You're not getting an answer tonight Wolf. What I will say is that I'm looking at all the options - that includes president in 2020 and running against Patty Murray in 2022 - and will make a decision at the appropriate time about how I can best serve this country. But whether I run for president or not, we will have a large field, and a candidate who can draw real contrast with Schweitzer, and defeat him decisively.

Wolf: But how do you erode Schweitzer's popularity - even tonight's midterm electorate likes the guy?

Rossi: I think once we point out, very clearly, the contrast and real connection with the values of the american people, we will be able to overcome that. You know, it looked like George H.W. Bush was unbeatable in 1991, and look at what happened that year. Circumstances can and will change and....

Wolf: Have to cut you off there. Billy Beasley, the losing candidate for Governor of Alabama, is beginning his concession speech. Let's listen in.

[BuckeyeNut]

Thank God Sherrod Brown and Tim Ryan pulled through.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Beasley: Thank you! Thank you! You have reinvigorated the Alabama Democratic party! (....)

But, the news is true. In this election, we have suffered a narrow defeat, and I have called Moore to congratulate him on his victory. But this does not mean we concede everything and adhere to his agenda. No, we cannot do that, for his agenda is horrible for the state of Alabama. The consequences are too great for us to simply adhere to the results of this election. We cannot prevent him from becoming governor anymore, but we can ensure that he will not turn Alabama into economic ruin and hatred through immoral discrimination. We cannot eliminate homosexuality however much we may disagree with it, it is part of life and they are real people.

(cheering)

I ask for the people of Alabama to provide a vehicle for civil disobedience against Moore's agenda. Be willing to allocate hard to find areas of your houses to allow your so inclined neighbors to engage in homosexual activities. Continue handing out marriage licenses and officiating if you have the authority to do so. Go into the streets and tout a message of inclusion. Voice opposition to Moore's agenda!

I do not believe, however, that impeachment is the right course of action. As a state, we voted for Moore and deserve to have him as governor. But we cannot bow down and let him do whatever he pleases. It is likely that some of his agenda will have to go through the legislature. Call your representatives, protest in front of their offices, do whatever you can to show them how opposed Alabama is to Moore's out of touch anti-gay agenda.

(Cheering)

For those who voted for Moore despite disagreeing with him on homosexuality, in hopes that he would moderate, the tone of his speech tonight makes it very clear that he will not. He is going for the full anti-gay prescription and there will be no concessions that are not forced out of him. I ask you to join the effort to weaken or stop him.

That being said, understand that violence is not the answer. We must not make Moore thirst for revenge too heavily, and we must show that government does not need to be destructed to be changed. I ask that this is kept to peaceful protest and civil disobedience. We do not need an all out war in Alabama, that will do more harm than good.

Business owners in Alabama, I ask that you do not leave the state. Moore will not be dissuaded by threats of your departure from the state, that will only embolden him. You must allow his efforts to be ended gradually, and whether the hopefully short storm that we have collectively brought upon ourselves by allowing too many of us to cast our votes for that evil man.

(cheering)

Now, let us go and enjoy the last weeks of Bentley's tenure. The fight begins in January. Good Night!


------------

1:44:



Wisconsin Governor - Chris Taylor (D)

88% in - Taylor 49.7, Walker 49.5, Others 0.8
Final - Taylor 50.1, Walker 49, Others 0.9

Montana Senate - Jon Tester (D)

73% in - Tester 49, Rehberg 45, Others 6
Final - Tester 48.4, Rehberg 46, Others 5.6

Senate:

R: 51 √
D: 43 (+1)
I: 4

If Independents caucus as they currently do:

R: 52 √
D: 46 (+1)

Governors:

R: 26 √
D: 21 (+7)
Recount needed: 1
Runoff needed: 1


END OF ELECTION NIGHT COVERAGE

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What was the biggest upset, you think?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

What was the biggest upset, you think?

Kirkpatrick. But Beasley coming as close as he did was probably the biggest surprise, the pre-election polls had Moore up 5-8 points going in.

[Kingpoleon]

Sandoval/Rossi sounds like a great ticket.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Sandoval/Rossi sounds like a great ticket.

You may want to remember how I did away with Sandoval. Go ahead, check back through this thread.

[Kingpoleon]

Oh my, I completely forgot. Maybe a Dardenne/Rossi ticket then.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Is this timeline over, or is there more to come?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

More to come

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

2018 Midterms - Final Results:

Senate:

Missouri Senate - Final Results

Steelman (R): 47.6%
Kander (D): 47.3%
Others: 5.1%

Forbes declines to ask for a recount in Virginia, a recount in Missouri confirms the result.

Outgoing Maine Gov. Michaud quickly appoints a generic democrat to the seat that incoming Gov. Collins is vacating. He schedules the special senate election for March 11, 2019.

Despite much speculation, no independents switch sides.

Republican Caucus: 53 seats
Democratic Caucus: 47 seats (+2)

Governors:

Alaska Governor - Final Results

Harris (R): 50.6%
Walker (I): 47%
Others: 2.4%

The florida recount process is completed in Late November. Nelson holds on to his seat by 406 votes.

Republicans: 27
Democrats: 22 (+7)
Runoff Needed: 1

House:

Republicans: 241 (+4)
Democrats: 194

Republican Gains:

MI-01
ME-02
IL-10
IL-17
PA-08
NY-01
NY-19

Democratic Gains:

WV-02
AL-02
CA-25

[100% pro-life no matter what]

What happened in AL-02?  That's as Republican as they come!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Democrats funneled money into that district and Byrne's district. It never went anywhere in Byrne's district despite Beasley carrying it (Byrne won 54/45), but Roby's challenger proved stronger than expected and there was a strong third party effort as well. Roby tying herself very closely to Moore didn't help - he carried the district, but his margin wasn't big enough to have the sort of coattails to pull her over. She lost 44/46.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What happened in WV-02 and CA-25?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

What happened in WV-02 and CA-25?

WV-02 only barely flipped in 2014 RL, it's not as Republican as the pundits pretend it is. Manchin coattails flipped it back.

CA-25 is nothing special in terms of a flip, it's actually included in the RL republican "patriot program" of endangered seats. So nothing odd happened, Democrats just got lucky enough.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Rest of 2018

In the days after the election, both parties declared victory - The democrats touting their gubernatorial gains and narrowing of the republican senate majority, and Republicans touting their expanded house majority and retention of the senate majority. Behind the scenes however, republicans are very worried that a 53-47 majority can be overridden in the 2020 senate races (Democrats are expected to win the Maine Special), and Democrats are throwing blame around for the fact that the night was essentially neutral congressionally. In the DNC's winter meeting, longtime chair DWS is finally thrown out, and replaced with the highly successful DGA chair and MO Gov. Clint Zweifel, with PA Gov. Tom Wolf taking the DGA chair position.

The drama begins in Alabama, as Bentley speculates about declaring Marital law rather than letting Moore take office in January. Ultimately, he decides to let Moore take office, but the fact that it was even considered is noteworthy.

Meanwhile, in Georgia, boosted by a surprise endorsement from the libertarian candidate, Democrat Kasim Reed narrowly wins the gubernatorial runoff, 50.3%-49.7%. The win is mostly credited to Demographics, though it is admitted that Reed's residency in Atlanta and Deal's unpopularity probably helped. The Republican gubernatorial majority is now at 27-23.

Next: Foreign Policy Update