The Democratic Revival???

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

April 2019

The presidential race gets a major entrant in Texas Senator Ted Cruz on the 3rd. Former CEO Carly Fiorina announces on the 6th, followed by nominal frontrunner Heather Wilson on the 16th. Schweitzer gets his first challenger in Former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley on the 21st, who is not expected to be a serious threat. Louisiana Governor Jay Dardenne enters on the 30th.

On the 10th, Schweitzer nominates Congressman Raul Ruiz to replace Howard Dean as the Secretary of Health and Human Services. He passes the senate on a surprisingly wide 77-23 vote, with many republicans hoping that his congressional seat will be a real pickup opportunity in a no-incumbent race.

On the 19th, Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia dies of natural causes at his ranch in Texas. There is little time reserved for mourning, as on the very next day notable republicans begin saying that there will be no confirmation of anyone who is not a "proven conservative" lest a liberal majority destroy "justice and law in America". Everyone is reminded of the process to replace Ginsburg and Kennedy two years earlier, in which Schweitzer was forced to agree to set of appointments that maintained the court's 5-4 conservative majority (Amy Klobuchar and Brian Sandoval). Schweitzer must walk a very fine line between finding someone who can pass the senate and giving too much of an attack line to the democratic base.

In Alabama, the legislature revolts against the demands to impeach Moore and repeal the homosexuality bill as the number of counties not giving out SSM licenses rises from 43 to 48, with 12 refusing to give out licenses for ALL marriages. In fact, the legislature votes to release Moore from house arrest, which results in him making several speeches about how the homosexual movement is dead. He is smart enough to not try to kidnap Beasley or hold a public whipping again. On the 28th, Schweitzer takes the nuclear option. He issues an order for a contingent of the national guard over which Alabama has no control to enter the state on May 1st and take "any necessary action to enforce the Lawrence v. Texas and Obergefell vs. Hodges supreme court rulings."

-------------------------

Status of Presidential Hopefuls:

Wilson: Entered April 16th
Brown: Has Formed Exploratory Committee
Cruz: Entered April 3rd
Ryan: Has formed Exploratory Committee

Dillard: Has formed Exploratory Committee
Dardenne: Entered April 30th
Daniels: Undecided
Thune: Undecided
Haley: Has formed Exploratory Committee
J. Bush: Has formed Exploratory Committee

Paul: Entered March 20th
Rossi: Entered March 29th
Abbott: Undecided
Carson: Has formed Exploratory Committee

Huckabee: Undecided
Fiorina: Entered April 6th
Graham: Undecided
Perry: Undecided
King: Undecided

-----------------

Warren: Undecided
Dean: Rumored to have formed exploratory committee, though no clear FEC mention of it exists.

Castro, Joaquin: Undecided
Obama: Says he is "highly unlikely to run"
Rendell: Undecided
Edwards, Donna: Has formed Exploratory Committee

O'Malley: Entered April 21st
Chafee: Has formed Exploratory Committee

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

May 14, 2019:

Schweitzer: "America was greatly shaken by the sudden death of Justice Antonin Scalia last month; an honorable public servant who will be missed. After careful consideration of who is best suited to serve on the Supreme Court, I have decided to nominate D.C. Circuit Judge Sri Srinivasan!"

Srinivasan, aged 52, received law and business masters degrees from Stanford University in 1995. He clerked for 4th circuit judge Harvie Wilkinson III and SCOTUS justice Sandra Day O'Connor before working in the office of the united states solicitor general during the GWB administration. He was later hired as deputy solicitor general under Obama before being confirmed to the D.C. circuit in the 2012 lame duck session.

A definite plus to liberals is the historicalness of the pick - he would the first indian american, asian american, and hindu to serve on the supreme court. He has also issued rulings in favor of environmental groups and Dodd Frank. However, he is disliked by some liberals for his association with the Bush administration and with anti-union corporate clients in private practice.

---
Senate Majority Leader John Cornyn criticizes the pick as a move to "radically liberalize the supreme court" but says he is "not ruling anything out" when directly asked if the senate will consider approving the pick.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

May 2019

Scott Brown enters the presidential race on the 10th, followed by Paul Ryan on the 14th and Ben Carson on the 29th. Meanwhile, Mike Huckabee announces he will NOT run on the 11th. Peter King does the same on the 17th, and Thune does the same on the 31st.

On the democratic side, Lincoln Chafee enters the race on the 7th. He is not expected to be a serious threat. Meanwhile, Barack Obama and Ed Rendell announce they have decided against running on the 17th, citing the nomination of Srinivasan as something that has made them have a greater amount of confidence in Schwetizer's liberalism. On the 31st, both Elizabeth Warren and Howard Dean say they are not running. Warren says she enjoys being in the Senate, and does not believe she can raise the millions of dollars necessary to compete in the democratic primary. Dean says he believes the american people have already decided against him given his failed runs in 2004 and 2016, and does not see a third run as likely to be successful.

Meanwhile, the house passes the non-smoke version of the medical marijuana bill, 254-180. A number of democrats actually vote against it due to an amendment added by the house that requires Schweitzer to crack down on the 10 states (Colorado, Oregon, Washington, Alaska, California, Arizona, Maine, Massachusetts, Montana, North Dakota) that have legalized marijuana for recreational use. It is successfully filibustered in the Senate.

In other news, after a long delay, the 5th Circuit finally rules en banc on the case of the gay marriage study - but it is not a decision. The judges are evenly divided and ask the supreme court to review the manner.

------------------------
Reminder of previous events on this case:

March 2018: A Louisiana District court rules in favor of a federal lawsuit arguing that Obergefell vs. Hodges should be overturned due to a study (largely viewed skeptically by scientific experts) showing that Same Sex Marriage has negatively impacted the welfare of children and resulted in straight couples viewing the union of marriage in a negative, cynical matter . The lawsuit argues that this meets the rational basis criteria for discrimination (the criteria that was used for Obergefell in this universe), and therefore should overturn Obergefell.

August 2018: LGBT supporters everywhere breathe a collective sigh of relief when the fifth circuit reverses the finding of the Louisiana District Court on the gay marriage "study". A three judge panel rules 2-1 that the study is a "shoddy piece of work that was designed from the start to show the results the designers wanted (that straight parents are better than gay parents))." The ruling says that while the panel is unsure of the exact level of validity of the claim that straight couples view marriage cynically nowadays, "opinions alone are not enough to make a law constitutional".

However, the fifth circuit quickly agrees to rehear the case en banc (hold a rehearing of the case with all of the circuit's judges, rather than just a panel of three), so those hoping to re-prohibit same sex marriage aren't out of luck just yet.

--------------------------------

Also, the balanced budget amendment passes the Minnesota Legislature. Only two states to go before it's approved.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

June 2019

On the 5th, Joaquin Castro rules out a challenge to Schweitzer. The next day, Donna Edwards enters the race, saying since no one else is willing to do it (no one cares about O'Malley and Chafee) she has to, even though she knows her odds are long given her low name recognition. Schweitzer officially announces his bid for reelection on the 10th.

The republican field increases in size - Dillard announces on the 12th, Daniels on the 14th, Jeb Bush on the 26th, Haley on the 30th. Rick Perry announces he will NOT run on the 30th.

------------------

Schweitzer: Entered June 10th
Warren: Not running
Dean: Not running

Castro, Joaquin: Not running
Obama: Not running
Rendell: Not running
Edwards, Donna: Entered June 6th

O'Malley: Entered April 21st
Chafee: Entered May 7th

---------------

Wilson: Entered April 16th
Brown: Entered May 10th
Cruz: Entered April 3rd
Ryan: Entered May 14th

Dillard: Entered June 12th
Dardenne: Entered April 30th
Daniels: Entered June 14th
Thune: Not running
Haley: Entered June 30th
J. Bush: Entered June 26th

Paul: Entered March 20th
Rossi: Entered March 29th
Abbott: Undecided
Carson: Entered May 29th

Huckabee: Not running
Fiorina: Entered April 6th
Graham: Undecided
Perry: Not running
King: Not running

-------------

Early Primary Polling - As of 6/30 - Complete DEM Poll, Top 4 R's in each state

IA:

Schweitzer 71%
O'Malley 7%
Edwards 5%
Chafee 1%
Undecided 16%

Cruz 15%
Ryan 10%
Dardenne 10%
Daniels 6%
Haley 6%
Wilson 6%
Abbott* 6%
Brown 6%

* Not yet a candidate

NH:

Schweitzer 64%
O'Malley 10%
Edwards 10%
Chafee 2%
Undecided 14%

Brown 23%
Wilson 12%
Dillard 9%
Rossi 9%

NV:

Schweitzer 77%
O'Malley 9%
Edwards 4%
Chafee 0%
Undecided 10%

Wilson 17%
Cruz 13%
Daniels 8%
Ryan 5%
Brown 5%
Rossi 5%
Abbott* 5%

* Not yet a candidate

SC:

Schweitzer 58%
Edwards 24%
O'Malley 3%
Chafee 0%
Undecided 15%

Dardenne 17%
Cruz 12%
Ryan 7%
Wilson 6%
Carson 6%
Haley 6%
Graham* 6%

* Not yet a candidate

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

June 2019

In a snub of Schweitzer, after electing to skip a hearing, the senate votes down Sirvansian. All democrats and independents voted for him (including I/R Greg Orman), along with five republicans - Gordon Smith, Bill Bolling, Rand Paul, Lisa Murkowski, and Susana Martinez - but it is seven short of the necessary 60 votes to overcome the filibuster effort lead by Majority Leader Cornyn himself. After the vote a note is sent to Schweitzer:

"Dear Mr. Schweitzer,

As we informed you shortly after Scalia's death, we are not going to approve a pick that changes the conservative majority status of the Supreme Court. We understand that this is a liberal administration and so do not require a hardline appointment - we'll accept someone like current justices John Roberts or Brian Sandoval - but they must be a conservative. We're not going to give you a list or anything, you can choose which conservative - but it has to be a conservative.

Mr. Sirvansian is a qualified individual who would make a sound appointment if a liberal justice was retiring or deceased, but that is not the case here. Preserving the courts five to four conservative majority is critical to continuing this nation's subscription to the fact that the constitution is the constitution, and to approve this justice would change that in a fundamentally unwise manner.

We took the exact same attitude over Anthony Kennedy's retirement in 2017 - you offered Amy Klobuchar, we said no, don't upset the majority. We held firm until you agreed to let Sandoval to take that seat. It just so happened that Ginsburg passed away around the same time, and since it would not upset the majority, we did approve Klobuchar to that seat. If it was Breyer, Kagan, or Sotomayor who was leaving the court now, we would confirm Sirvansian without a second thought, but it is not - it is Scalia. A conservative must take his seat. We will not approve a liberal under any circumstances. That's not open for debate or compromise - it's a set in stone thing for this replacement. You can either appoint a conservative to fill Scalia's place, or be content with an eight justice supreme court. We believe that america would be best served by nine justices, and look forward to approving the conservative you select.

Sincerely,
Majority Leader Cornyn

P.S. If you cooperate here, we might be able to work out something out with your stated goal to pass an LGB anti-discrimination law.

(Note: Schweitzer has left the "T" in "LGBT" out of his stated goal)

--------------------

Meanwhile, the house and senate do pass changes to the patriot act which are signed by Schweitzer.(similar to the real life USA freedom act)

In Alabama, things seem to be calming down. The national guard presence has forced Moore to call off searches of houses to find active homosexuals and any effort to stop recognizing existing same sex marriages. Though 34 counties are still refusing to issue SSM licenses, it is down from a peak of 48. However, there is still worry that Chris McDaniel could be elected Governor in Mississippi and start a fresh fight to eliminate homosexuality.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

July 2019

The downballot primaries in MS and KY are held - Greg Stumbo is selected to face Gov. Comer, and Chris McDaniel will face Brandon Presley in the bid to replace Phil Bryant.

Following the McDaniel primary victory, things take a turn for the worse in Alabama as Moore issues a fresh directive saying he has been emboldened by McDaniel's success and will be making immediate direct moves to imprison the license issuers of those counties who still issue SSM licenses. He immediately arrests 3 such issuers. The national guard attempts to release them, barely getting through a resistance from the Alabama Police, but are ultimately unable to find the new prisoners as Moore has hidden them in a secret area of the prison that is essentially unfindable unless one knows of its existence. Moore taunts the guard in the following days, showing them pictures of the new prisoners to confirm their existence but refusing to reveal their location. Unwilling to blow up every wall in the prison over marriage, the national guard tries to jail some pro-Moore licensers, but the deputies of those prove to be no more willing to do their jobs. Trying to get someone from an issuing county almost always results in a response of "Under no circumstances am I helping the scum that is the Moore-carried counties. Jail me all you want, I don't care." The guard sees itself out of options aside from trying to remove Moore from office, but that's extremely time-consuming and someone else could always rise up to continue his actions. Moore suggests to the guard presence "Look, why don't you just let Alabama secede from the United States? Obviously none of what you're doing is working." after some muttering about the constitution, he says "Then amend it. Every congressional democrat will vote for it, and there are probably enough pro-homosexuality republicans there by now to get it through. I'll communicate loudly that we want to leave. If that's what it takes to eliminate homosexuality, we're going to do it. That's how committed we are."

The national guard relays the information to Schweitzer, who smiles broadly, knowing that it will be tough for him to be defeated for reelection if Republicans don't have Alabama's EV's and would also take away two very partisan republican senators. The national guard presence is removed from Alabama on the agreement that Moore will not resume searches of people's houses, and congressional debate begins.

----------------------

The balanced budget amendment passes the legislatures of WA and ME, finally getting it across the 38 states needed. The United States will be required to have a balanced budget beginning in the year 2035, barring declared war or unemployment being 9% or greater. Due to reforms under Santorum and Schweitzer, the current yearly deficit is only about $200 Billion, but that is going to have to be completely shaved off over the next 15 years. As promised, S&P restores the U.S. to an AAA credit rating.

Meanwhile, Congress passes Schweitzer's long awaited offshore drilling bill, ending any current need for oil from the middle east. The house is in a good enough mood from the passage of the balanced budget amendment and the offshore drilling to pass the smoke-permitted version of the medical marijuana bill without any requirement to crack down on recreational usage states. Schweitzer quickly signs both bills. As a part of the arrangement, Marijuana is moved from Schedule I to Schedule II.

Lindsey Graham enters the presidential race on the 15th. Greg Abbott announces he will NOT run on the same day.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

August 2019

The first debate is held for the republicans. Wilson, Brown, Cruz, Ryan, Dillard, Dardenne, Daniels, Haley, Jeb!, and Rossi are invited to the primetime debate, while Carson, Paul, Graham, and Fiorina are relegated to a "kids table" debate held several hours earlier. Ryan and Daniels are viewed as the winners of the primetime debate, while Jeb! is seen as the loser. Jeb! seemed to be unaware of how to properly debate after more than a decade outside the political realm and got hammered from all sides.

At the kids table debate, Paul emerges as the winner, while the other three were terrible. Carson spoke so monotone that one of the moderators actually groaned in annoyance, Graham was so pro-war that he should have been at some debate on how to bring back the Soviet Union, and while Fiorina was doing fine initially, she fell apart the moment Paul called her out on how hated she was at HP and how bad she was for the company.

-------

Current Polling:

IA:

Schweitzer 66%
O'Malley 14%
Edwards 6%
Chafee 1%
Undecided 13%

Cruz 13%
Ryan 13%
Daniels 9%
Dardenne 9%

NH:

Schweitzer 57%
Edwards 15%
O'Malley 13%
Chafee 1%
Undecided 14%

Brown 25%
Wilson 12%
Dillard 9%
Rossi 8%
Cruz 8%
Daniels 8%

NV:

Schweitzer 80%
O'Malley 7%
Edwards 6%
Chafee 0%
Undecided 7%

Wilson 15%
Cruz 12%
Daniels 9%
Ryan 8%

SC:

Schweitzer 54%
Edwards 30%
O'Malley 2%
Chafee 0%
Undecided 14%

Dardenne 21%
Cruz 13%
Ryan 11%
Haley 11%
Wilson 11%

[Kingpoleon]

Has Governor Norm Coleman endorsed anyone?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Has Governor Norm Coleman endorsed anyone?

He lost reelection, so it's not like anyone would be angling for his endorsement.

[Kingpoleon]

I thought former office holders do sometimes endorse, regardless of how recently their last election loss was. Is he or Jake Coleman running for a House district?(I doubt either would challenge Franken.)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I don't really structure out exact candidates for the house. I know which districts have flipped in each election, but I just gloss over who actually holds the seats in most cases.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

September 2019

Schweitzer announces that there will be no conservative supreme court nominee coming from him. He says the door remains open to the senate to approve Sirvansian, but barring that, he will be content with an 8-member supreme court. Edwards screams "Too little, too late" and criticizes that Schweitzer waited months after the denial to announce such a decision. Edwards and O'Malley are also campaigning for an opportunity to debate Schweitzer, a question that Schweitzer has been completely dodging so far.

The republicans hold another debate, with the same lineup as before. Rossi announces that William Pryor, a Dubya appointee to the 11th circuit, would be his pick to replace Scalia, a move that is viewed as both bold given that not a single primary delegate has been allocated, but also heroic within conservative circles. Overall, Ted Cruz and Kirk Dillard are at the top of "who won the debate?" polls, with Paul once again dominating the kids' table. Following another embarrassing performance, Jeb! announces his withdrawal from the race.

Meanwhile, the amendment to allow Alabama to secede from the Union makes it out of its respective house committee. A vote is expected in October. In Mississippi, Republican Candidate Chris McDaniel finds his GE lead shrinking as voters question the wisdom of abolishing homosexuality. In Louisiana, the Vitter campaign is flailing and may fail to even make the runoff.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

October 2019

Louisiana Jungle Primary Results:

Landrieu, Mitch (D): 25% RUNOFF
Kennedy (R): 22% RUNOFF
Campbell (D): 19%
Vitter (R/NOM): 16%
Boustany (R): 9%
Fleming (R): 7%
Others: 2%

The result is a clear defeat for the movement to eliminate homosexuality. Not only did Vitter fail to make the runoff, he did not even place within the top 3. The runoff between Landrieu and Kennedy is expected to be highly competitive - Even though the two democrats totaled just 44% of the vote, many Vitter voters are expected to abstain from the runoff given that Kennedy is a relatively moderate republican and a clear supporter of same-sex marriage. Of course, it's also a defeat for those LA Dems who predicted a D vs. D runoff, but honestly, it's Louisiana, did you really expect a D vs. D runoff?

During this month, two more republican debates were held. The absence of Jeb! from the race allowed Paul to be on the main stage, but with stiffer competition, his ability to perform declined. Cruz dominated both debates. The kids table, now consisting of Fiorina, Graham, and Carson, offers little excitement. Fiorina does the best, but when the competition is a super-hawk and a sleepy doctor, that's not saying much.

Schweitzer submits to congress a constitutional amendment to reform gerrymandering of Congress.

Under the amendment, each state would be re-drawn so that the party affiliation of its U.S. representatives more effectively represents how it voted in the presidential election closest to the census. The amendment says each state is to have one to three swing districts to account for "regular change in the opinion of the state over the course of the decade". The amendment says that the states are not allowed to draw more than three swing districts unless they receive a waiver, authorized by the federal appeals court for the state, saying that it is the only way they can realistically draw districts that give the potential of reflecting the appropriate presidential result. Citing "unusual and extreme difficulty of drawing the appropriate number of republican and/or swing districts", the amendment automatically exempts the state of Massachusetts, provided that one republican or appeals court-approved swing district exists.

Meanwhile, the amendment to allow Alabama to secede from the union narrowly achieves the 2/3 majority needed in the house, 291-142.

Current Polling

IA:

Schweitzer 70%
O'Malley 12%
Edwards 10%
Chafee 1%
Undecided 7%

Cruz 17%
Ryan 12%
Daniels 10%
Dardenne 10%
Dillard 10%

NH:

Schweitzer 60%
Edwards 19%
O'Malley 10%
Chafee 2%
Undecided 9%

Brown 25%
Wilson 13%
Rossi 10%
Dillard 9%
Cruz 9%

NV:

Schweitzer 78%
O'Malley 9%
Edwards 6%
Chafee 1%
Undecided 6%

Cruz 16%
Wilson 14%
Ryan 12%
Rossi 9%
Dardenne 9%

SC:

Schweitzer 54%
Edwards 36%
O'Malley 2%
Chafee 0%
Undecided 8%

Dardenne 19%
Cruz 14%
Haley 12%
Wilson 10%
Ryan 10%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

November 2019

HOMOSEXUALITY TO BE ABOLISHED IN MISSISSIPPI

Despite their crushing defeat in Louisiana in October, NOM pulled off a victory in Mississippi, as their candidate, Chris McDaniel, defeated Democrat Brandon Presley by 0.7%. Ultimately, the racial polarization of the state was simply too much to elect a democrat as governor. Interestingly, the result is virtually identical to Alabama, where Moore won by 0.8%. As the amendment under consideration to allow Alabama to secede is written in a way to apply to other anti-homosexuality states as well, Schweitzer says he will not take action against Mississippi as long as there are no searches of houses or buildings for individuals engaging in homosexual actions.

Results of the two races where there is no "eliminate homosexuality" candidate:

Kentucky

Comer (R): 51.4%
Stumbo (D): 46%
Others: 2.6%

Louisiana Runoff

Kennedy (R): 50.7%
Landrieu, Mitch (D): 49.3%

The united states still has 27 republican governors and 23 democratic governors

--------------------

The republican nomination faces some minor changes as Graham and Carson drop out of the race shortly after the first of two debates during the month due to their low polling numbers. As a result, Fiorina is advanced to the main debate stage for the second November debate, not so much because she met the networks preferred standard but because they wanted to avoid inevitable accusations of sexism if they were to exclude her from the debates entirely, as beginning with this debate the kids' table is eliminated given that there are now only 11 candidates.

Meanwhile, facing a consistent closing of the gap by Edwards in the critical early state of South Carolina, Schweitzer announces he will engage in three debates between himself, Edwards, and O'Malley. Chafee is not to be included. There will be one debate in NH in December, another in GA in January (another big Edwards target), and another in SC just four days before the late February primary in that state.

Current Polling

IA:

Schweitzer 62%
Edwards 18%
O'Malley 14%
Chafee 1%
Undecided 5%

Cruz 18%
Ryan 14%
Dardenne 13%
Daniels 11%

NH:

Schweitzer 53%
Edwards 23%
O'Malley 15%
Chafee 3%
Undecided 6%

Brown 28%
Wilson 15%
Rossi 11%
Dillard 9%
Cruz 9%

NV:

Schweitzer 74%
O'Malley 11%
Edwards 6%
Chafee 1%
Undecided 8%

Cruz 16%
Wilson 16%
Ryan 11%
Rossi 8%
Dardenne 8%
Brown 8%

SC:

Schweitzer 51%
Edwards 40%
O'Malley 2%
Chafee 0%
Undecided 7%

Dardenne 19%
Haley 15%
Cruz 14%
Wilson 10%
Ryan 10%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

December 2019

Schweitzer emerges as the winner from his first debate with Edwards and O'Malley. He was hit on everything, but always ready with an answer. Not even trying to reverse the incremental retirement age increase passed under Santorum? Plainly necessary for the program's solvency. Offshore drilling? A key way to meet the liberal demand to "end the wars" as it greatly lowered conflict with the middle east as the U.S. no longer needed their oil. Not advocating for Transgender non-discrimination protections? Impossible to get under the current congress, while a LGB-Only bill isn't a complete non-starter (although he doesn't let on that he was offered such a bill in exchange for giving up SCOTUS). Sandoval's SCOTUS nomination? A clear compromise since Klobuchar was approved as well, and not a significant conservative appointment since Sandoval is a social liberal. The late-term abortion ban? Doing what the country actually supports, reaching a clear conclusion on a divisive issue, improving access in conservative states (only seven states still try to ban abortion before 30 weeks), and done in return for spending increases in key areas, including Education, which was drastically cut under Santorum.

As much as Pro-Edwards pundits try to promote it as a loss for Schweitzer since he spent most of the debate playing defense, it's clear the public disagrees. Schweitzer was never unable to deliver an answer, and was clearly prepared, while Edwards and O'Malley often struggled to refute Schweitzer's arguments.

The media releases its first survey of the 720 Democratic Superdelegates four days after the debate. 426 say they will support Schweitzer, 26 say they will support Edwards, and 3 say they will support O'Malley. No one supports Chafee. The rest have no endorsement at this time.

On the republican side, Wilson and Rossi do the best in the December Debates, Cruz also puts in a good showing but is not seen as a "winner". Brown is hit hard on abortion for the first time, at which point he comes out in support of a 20 week ban, which receives mixed reviews in the polls. He still looks very hard to beat in New Hampshire though.

Current Polling

IA:

Schweitzer 67%
Edwards 14%
O'Malley 10%
Chafee 0%
Undecided 9%

Cruz 16%
Ryan 14%
Dardenne 12%
Rossi 12%
Daniels 12%

NH:

Schweitzer 59%
Edwards 18%
O'Malley 13%
Chafee 1%
Undecided 9%

Brown 29%
Wilson 19%
Rossi 15%
Dillard 9%
Cruz 9%

NV:

Schweitzer 82%
O'Malley 8%
Edwards 6%
Chafee 0%
Undecided 4%

Wilson 19%
Cruz 17%
Ryan 11%
Rossi 9%
Dardenne 9%

SC:

Schweitzer 56%
Edwards 35%
O'Malley 2%
Chafee 0%
Undecided 9%

Dardenne 21%
Haley 16%
Cruz 16%
Wilson 12%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

2020 Primaries Calendar

Republican delegate rules: "default" republican rules are straight proportional with a 5% threshold on or before Super Tuesday and 10% after Super Tuesday. States with a * by them have a 20% threshold. States with a ** by them are winner take all. States with a ^ become winner take-all if someone gets a majority. States with a *** by them have at least one delegate who will be elected as "unpledged" and thus is able to vote for whoever they want at the convention. Republicans do not have "superdelegates".

Democratic delegate rules: All democratic pledged delegates are allocated proportionally with a 15% threshold.

All contests listed are for both parties (except Democrats Abroad).

--------------

Monday, January 27th: Iowa
Tuesday, February 4th: New Hampshire
Saturday, February 15th: Nevada
Tuesday, February 25th: South Carolina^
Tuesday, March 3rd: Super Tuesday - Maine, Massachusetts^, Vermont, Georgia*, Alabama*^, Arkansas*, Tennessee*, Texas*^, Mississippi*, Oklahoma*, Wyoming, North Dakota, Colorado, Idaho^, Alaska, Minnesota, American Samoa**+***
Thursday, March 5th: Kansas, Louisiana*, Utah^
Tuesday, March 10th: Virginia*, North Carolina, Florida**, Ohio**, Missouri*
Tuesday, March 17th: Michigan, Illinois***, Arizona**, DC
Saturday, March 21st: Virgin Islands**+***, Northern Mariana Islands**+***, Democrats Abroad, Hawaii
Saturday, March 28th: Washington (State)*^

Dates for later contests will be revealed should their existence become necessary

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

January 2020

At the second Schweitzer-Edwards-O'Malley debate, a different strategy is used to attack Schweitzer. Rather than try to box Schweitzer into admitting he "criminally" betrayed democrats on some issue or another, the argument is made that the whole premise of trying to get anything done with hostile republicans in control of congress was completely and totally wrong. The argument can be quickly summarized as "be super far-left or do nothing at all!". An impassioned argument was made that sitting and doing nothing was better than "approving the roughly center-left policies of Schweitzer's term". The government would be funded, and the debt ceiling raised, but no policy changes that were not ultra-liberal would be made. Schweitzer doesn't do quite as well refuting this argument, but avoids any significant blunder.

Meanwhile, the constitutional amendment to allow secession of AL and MS fails to obtain a 2/3 majority in the Senate. Schweitzer says he will take no new action against these states until after the primaries have concluded. For Edwards, this is a big open door. While, unfortunately for her, the event occurs after the debate, she still goes on TV and holds rallies where she uses the incident as new evidence to slam Schweitzer as being a closet conservative. "Look at it!", she pleads with everyone she meets, "IT IS BETRAYAL". She suggests that she would be willing to bomb Alabama prisons to free those still imprisoned in them, which actually doesn't go over too badly.

McDaniel is sworn in in Mississippi. 8 counties stop handing out SSM licenses, and an anti-homosexuality bill begins working its way through the legislature.

Superdelegate Count as of January 24th:

Schweitzer: 472 (92% of allocated delegates)
Edwards: 35 (7% of allocated delegates)
O'Malley: 4 (1% of allocated delegates)
Chafee: 0
No Endorsement Yet: 209

(No major developments in GOP race)


Final Iowa Polling (FULL GOP POLL)

Schweitzer 57%
Edwards 24%
O'Malley 14%
Chafee 1%
Undecided 4%

Cruz 16%
Ryan 16%
Dardenne 12%
Rossi 11%
Daniels 10%
Wilson 8%
Brown 7%
Haley 5%
Paul 5%
Dillard 5%
Fiorina 1%
Undecided 4%

Other Data Presented as Usual

NH:

Schweitzer 53%
Edwards 24%
O'Malley 17%
Chafee 1%
Undecided 5%

Brown 30%
Wilson 17%
Rossi 13%
Dillard 10%

NV:

Schweitzer 76%
Edwards 9%
O'Malley 8%
Chafee 0%
Undecided 5%

Wilson 19%
Cruz 19%
Ryan 13%
Dardenne 10%

SC:

Schweitzer 52%
Edwards 41%
O'Malley 3%
Chafee 0%
Undecided 4%

Dardenne 20%
Haley 20%
Cruz 16%
Wilson 11%


NEXT: IOWA CAUCUSES

[Kingpoleon]

April 2019

The presidential race gets a major entrant in Texas Senator Ted Cruz on the 3rd. Former CEO Carly Fiorina announces on the 6th, followed by nominal frontrunner Heather Wilson on the 16th. Schweitzer gets his first challenger in Former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley on the 21st, who is not expected to be a serious threat. Louisiana Governor Jay Dardenne enters on the 30th.

On the 10th, Schweitzer nominates Congressman Raul Ruiz to replace Howard Dean as the Secretary of Health and Human Services. He passes the senate on a surprisingly wide 77-23 vote, with many republicans hoping that his congressional seat will be a real pickup opportunity in a no-incumbent race.

On the 19th, Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia dies of natural causes at his ranch in Texas. There is little time reserved for mourning, as on the very next day notable republicans begin saying that there will be no confirmation of anyone who is not a "proven conservative" lest a liberal majority destroy "justice and law in America". Everyone is reminded of the process to replace Ginsburg and Kennedy two years earlier, in which Schweitzer was forced to agree to set of appointments that maintained the court's 5-4 conservative majority (Amy Klobuchar and Brian Sandoval). Schweitzer must walk a very fine line between finding someone who can pass the senate and giving too much of an attack line to the democratic base.

In Alabama, the legislature revolts against the demands to impeach Moore and repeal the homosexuality bill as the number of counties not giving out SSM licenses rises from 43 to 48, with 12 refusing to give out licenses for ALL marriages. In fact, the legislature votes to release Moore from house arrest, which results in him making several speeches about how the homosexual movement is dead. He is smart enough to not try to kidnap Beasley or hold a public whipping again. On the 28th, Schweitzer takes the nuclear option. He issues an order for a contingent of the national guard over which Alabama has no control to enter the state on May 1st and take "any necessary action to enforce the Lawrence v. Texas and Obergefell vs. Hodges supreme court rulings."

-------------------------

Status of Presidential Hopefuls:

Wilson: Entered April 16th
Brown: Has Formed Exploratory Committee
Cruz: Entered April 3rd
Ryan: Has formed Exploratory Committee

Dillard: Has formed Exploratory Committee
Dardenne: Entered April 30th
Daniels: Undecided
Thune: Undecided
Haley: Has formed Exploratory Committee
J. Bush: Has formed Exploratory Committee

Paul: Entered March 20th
Rossi: Entered March 29th
Abbott: Undecided
Carson: Has formed Exploratory Committee

Huckabee: Undecided
Fiorina: Entered April 6th
Graham: Undecided
Perry: Undecided
King: Undecided

-----------------

Warren: Undecided
Dean: Rumored to have formed exploratory committee, though no clear FEC mention of it exists.

Castro, Joaquin: Undecided
Obama: Says he is "highly unlikely to run"
Rendell: Undecided
Edwards, Donna: Has formed Exploratory Committee

O'Malley: Entered April 21st
Chafee: Has formed Exploratory Committee

Heather Wilson, Jay Dardenne, Lindsey Graham, Dino Rossi, Scott Brown, and Mitch Daniels I could all support. I could maybe support Kirk Dillard, Rand Paul, and Paul Ryan - in order of likelihood.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Iowa Caucuses - Democrats

Total pledged delegate number for each state is configured as follows:  1/2 * ((2016 State Democratic Popular Vote % / 2016 National Democratic Popular Vote %) + (# of electoral votes the state has/538)) * 100. So for Iowa, this calculation is : 1/2 * ((48.1/51.0) + (6/538)) * 100 = 47.7, which rounds up to 48 pledged delegates.

Brian Schweitzer 60.7% (32)
Donna Edwards 30.2% (16)
Martin O'Malley 8.4%
Uncommitted 0.4%
Lincoln Chafee 0.3%

In the end, few undecided voters broke against Schweitzer, and he exceeded 60% of the vote. O'Malley was held below 15% at many caucus sites, and Chafee and uncommitted were held below it nearly everywhere. Most of their voters went to Edwards, allowing her to surpass 30% of the vote and get a third of the pledged delegates. But Schweitzer still starts the primaries with a lead.

Total Delegates - Among Pledged Alone:

Schweitzer: 32 (66.7%)
Edwards: 16 (33.3%)

Total Delegates - With Supers

Schweitzer: 504 (90.2%)
Edwards: 51 (9.1%)
O'Malley: 4 (0.7%)

Despite calls by the Edwards campaign for O'Malley and Chafee to "end their campaigns tonight", citing a belief that Schweitzer is beatable in a head to head with Edwards in NH, a state Schweitzer placed 7th in in the 2016 primary, both pledge to continue on to New Hampshire, saying the tough caucus format limited their support and that they will do far better in an actual primary.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Iowa Caucuses - Republicans

Total delegates for each state is configured as follows: 13+3*(# of CDs) + Bonus. Always round up to nearest whole number at the end.

Bonuses:

1. If the state voted for Santorum in 2016, add 4.5*0.60*(# of EVs) delegates
2. If the state voted for Santorum in 2012 but did not do so in 2016, add 4.5+0.30*(# of EVs) delegates.
3. Award one delegate for each Republican U.S. Senator the state elected between January 2015 and December 2019. Limit Four.
4. Award one delegate if the state elected one or more republican governors between January 2016 and December 2019.
5. Award one delegate if at least two-fifths of the state's U.S. House delegation consists of republicans.
6. Award one (additional) delegate if at least two-thirds of the state's U.S. House delegation consists of republicans.
7. Maine gets 3 extra delegates since ME-2 voted for Santorum in 2012. (ME-2 does not count as a state for the purposes of 1. and 2. )

So, for Iowa, the calculation is 13+3*4 + (4.5*0.60*6) + 1 (One R senator elected in the timeframe) + 1 (>40% R house delegation) = 43.2, which rounds up to 44 delegates.


Ted Cruz 17.4% (8)
Paul Ryan 15% (7)
Dino Rossi 13.1% (6)
Jay Dardenne 12.6% (6)
Mitch Daniels 10.7% (5)
Scott Brown 7.9% (4)
Heather Wilson 7.1% (3)
Rand Paul 5.6% (3)
Nikki Haley 5.1% (2)
Kirk Dillard 4.8%
Carly Fiorina 0.7%

The Iowa Caucus results were full of good news for some and bad news for others. Dino Rossi's third place finish is seen as a surprise and a major boost to his campaign, raising his chances of getting 2nd place in NH and pulling an upset win in NV. Of course, it is also a good night for Ted Cruz, who won the caucus despite a very strong challenge from Paul Ryan. Ryan now moves on to Nevada in hopes of a win. Cruz now aims to win SC, defeating home-state candidate Nikki Haley and fellow southerner Jay Dardenne in SC. If he does, that would give him some key momentum heading into Super Tuesday.  Scott Brown did about as well as he could in such an unfavorable state for him and can still look forward to a clear win in NH. Wilson, like Rossi, hopes to net a 2nd place finish in New Hampshire and a win in Nevada.

Several candidates who needed to demonstrate viability simply did not do so. Daniels placed a disappointing 5th in what many considered the best early state for him. Daniels pledges to continue on, but his chances are clearly diminished. Kirk Dillard will be continuing on to NH, but his performance in Iowa was definitely disappointing. While he knew he wasn't going to do well in the conservative state, he hoped to snatch a couple of delegates anyways, but instead he fell just short of the 5% threshold.

For two candidates, this was the end. Rand Paul had promised for weeks that turnout among college kids would give him a surprise finish, he ended with less than 6% of the vote and only 3 delegates.  Paul quickly dropped out of the race, endorsing Brown. Also dropping out is Carly Fiorina, for reasons that should be rather obvious.

Total Delegates

Cruz: 8 (18.1%)
Ryan: 7 (15.9%)
Brown: 7 (15.9%) - 3 from Paul endorsement
Rossi: 6 (13.7%)
Dardenne: 6 (13.7%)
Daniels: 5 (11.4%)
Wilson: 3 (6.8%)
Haley: 2 (4.5%)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

SCHWEITZER BARELY GETS MAJORITY IN NH DEM PRIMARY

A disappointing performance for the President today. For much of the night, he was below a majority and the Edwards campaign even put out a statement declaring it a loss for the president and echoed that response in a sort of concession sort of victory speech that Edwards made with about 60% of the vote reporting. In the final results, Schweitzer edged above the 50% mark, but it was still a clear disappointment and underscores the difficulty he will face in the more challenging state of SC.

Delegates: 1/2 * ((52.5/51.0) + (4/538)) * 100 = 51.8 --> 52 delegates

Brian Schweitzer 50.3% (27)
Donna Edwards 27.2% (15)
Martin O'Malley 17.7% (10)
Lincoln Chafee 2.7%
Scattering 2.1%

O'Malley and Chafee quickly dropped out of the race and endorsed Edwards, stressing a need to unify around her to defeat Schweitzer in SC and other southern states. The four O'Malley superdelegates quickly endorse Edwards as well.

Total Delegates - Among Pledged Alone

Schweitzer: 59 (59%)
Edwards: 41 (41%) - 10 from O'Malley endorsement

Total Delegates - With Supers

Schweitzer: 535 (86.9%) (476 Supers)
Edwards: 81 (13.1%) (40 Supers)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

New Hampshire Primary - Republicans

Delegates: 13 + (3*2) + 1 (One R senator elected in the timeframe) + 1 (R governor elected in the timeframe) + 1 (>40% R house delegation) = 22

Scott Brown - 27.7% (7)
Heather Wilson - 14.5% (3)
Dino Rossi - 14.4% (3)
Kirk Dillard - 11.1% (3)
Mitch Daniels - 8.8% (2)
Paul Ryan - 8.1% (2)
Ted Cruz - 7.4% (2)
Jay Dardenne - 3.9%
Nikki Haley - 2.5%
Scattering - 1.6%

To the surprise of no one, Brown won a comfortable victory in the New Hampshire primary. The real contest was for second place, with Wilson and Rossi trading places repeatedly throughout the night. Ultimately Wilson held second place by fewer than 200 votes, but both candidates declared the result a success for their campaign and the media characterized it as a "virtual tie". The night was a disappointment for Kirk Dillard and Mitch Daniels who had hoped for a surprising finish. Daniels dropped out of the race, endorsing Paul Ryan. Dillard pledged to fight on, stressing the fact that he had gotten the same amount of delegates from the state as Wilson and Rossi, though it is difficult to see where Dillard's path to the nomination is. Ryan, Cruz, Dardnenne, and Haley are focusing on other states and so did not make a serious effort here.

Total Delegates

Ryan: 16 (24.2%) - 7 from Daniels endorsement
Brown: 14 (21.2%)
Cruz: 10 (15.1%)
Rossi: 9 (13.6%)
Dardenne: 6 (9.1%)
Wilson: 6 (9.1%)
Dillard: 3 (4.6%)
Haley: 2 (3.0%)

States won

Cruz - IA
Brown - NH

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Nevada Caucuses

On the democratic side, Schweitzer won by such a YUGE margin that he swept all the pledged delegates. While he has always done well in this state, even getting his first victory in the 2016 primaries here, Edwards was holding out hope that she could still snatch some delegates.

Delegates: 1/2 * ((53.7/51.0) + (6/538)) * 100 = 53.2 ---> 53 pledged delegates

Brian Schweitzer: 85.3% (53)
Donna Edwards: 14.7%

Total Delegates - Among Pledged Alone

Schweitzer: 112 (73.2%)
Edwards: 41 (26.8%)

Total Delegates - With Supers

Schweitzer: 589 (87.8%) (477 Supers)
Edwards: 82 (12.2%) (41 Supers)

-------

On the republican side, Wilson managed a narrow victory.

Delegates: 13 + (3*4) + 1 (One R senator elected in the timeframe) + 1 (>40% R house delegation) = 27 delegates

Heather Wilson 22.5% (6)
Ted Cruz 20.8% (6)
Dino Rossi 13.4% (4)
Paul Ryan 13.1% (4)
Kirk Dillard 8.5% (2)
Jay Dardenne 8.4% (2)
Scott Brown 8.2% (2)
Nikki Haley 5.1% (1)

Wilson and Cruz clearly did what they needed to do here, while Rossi and Ryan did "good enough". Dardenne and Haley are going all out for a win in SC, and Brown has his early state win already. But for Dillard, it was time to admit that this was the end. He dropped out of the race, endorsing fellow moderate Scott Brown.

Total Delegates

Brown: 21 (22.5%) - 5 from Dillard Endorsement
Ryan: 20 (21.5%)
Cruz: 16 (17.2%)
Rossi: 13 (14.0%)
Wilson: 12 (12.9%)
Dardenne: 8 (8.6%)
Haley: 3 (3.2%)

States won
Cruz - IA
Brown - NH
Wilson - NV



Next: DEM Debate + SC/Super Tuesday Polling Data

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

At the final DEM debate, Schweitzer appeared to be slightly overconfident of his stance in the primaries, not refuting Edwards's points as well as usual. However, it appeared to be a narrow Schweitzer win overall until Edwards gave a memorable closing statement:

"Voters of South Carolina, look, this contest in 4 days, it's not the final arbiter for the nomination. No, Don't stop listening, hear me out here. I know you may not agree with me on every issue or feel you are giving the president some level of disrespect by voting for me, but I believe that a vote is never disrespectful - it is the heart of american democracy. And this race for the democratic nomination, I believe, is going to go into April. It does not end with SC. The best thing for those voters who are on the fence about Schweitzer is to send him a message. Send him a message that you are dissatisfied with his administration. I mean, here's the thing. A vote for Schweitzer in the SC primary is a statement that you are 100% okay with Brian Sandoval, a conservative stalwart, being on the supreme court. A vote for Schweitzer is a statement that you are 100% okay with allowing Alabama and Mississippi to ban gay marriage even if they do not secede from the union. A vote for Schweitzer is a statement that you are 100% okay with ignoring transgender discrimination. A vote for Schweitzer is a statement that you are 100% okay with the prohibition of abortion, unconditionally, after the 30th week. A vote for Schweitzer is a vote saying you are 100% okay with offshore oil drilling. A vote for Schweitzer is a vote saying you are 100% okay with the retirement age being 70 in 2038. And a vote for Schweitzer is a vote saying you are 100% okay with compromising with Ted Cruz. If you aren't completely on board with me, that's fine. This is not the final primary by any means. Your vote should simply be used to send a message to the president that if he wants this nomination, he needs to acknowledge the wrongs of his first term, and become much more liberal. A vote for Schweitzer is an affirmation of 100% of his first term. A vote for me sends a powerful request for change."

---------------

SC Poll - Post-Debate:

Schweitzer: 49%
Edwards: 47%
Undecided: 4%

Cruz: 20%
Dardenne: 20%
Haley: 20%
Wilson: 13%
Rossi: 11%
Ryan: 9%
Brown: 4%
Undecided: 3%

Super Tuesday Map (DEM)

Red 70% - Safe Schweitzer
Red 50% - Likely Schweitzer
Red 30% - Lean Schweitzer
Green - Toss-Up
Blue 30% - Lean Edwards

Super Tuesday Map (REP):

Red 50%: Cruz Lead
Red 90%: Ryan Lead
Blue 50%: Wilson Lead
Blue 90%: Rossi Lead
Green 50%: Dardenne Lead
Green 90%: Brown Lead

[Kingpoleon]

Wilson, Dardenne, and Rossi all seem like fine choices to me. I might support Scott Brown over Brian Schweitzer. Other than that, I suspect I'd support either Schweitzer or a third party.