The Democratic Revival???

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

South Carolina Primary

R delegates: 13 + (3*7) + (4.5*0.60*9) + 1 (Elected one R senator) + 1 (Elected an R governor) + 1 (>40% R house delegation) + 1 (>67% R house delegation) = 62.3 --> 63 delegates

Ted Cruz 22.5% (15)
Jay Dardenne 22.1% (14)
Nikki Haley 20.6% (13)
Dino Rossi 12.7% (8)
Heather Wilson 12.1% (8)
Paul Ryan 7.1% (5)
Scott Brown 2.9%

D delegates: 1/2 * ((44.1/51.0) + (9/538)) * 100 = 44.1 --> 44 delegates

Brian Schweitzer 50.7% (22)
Donna Edwards 49.3% (22)

Firmly rejected by her home state, Haley dropped out of the race, endorsing Cruz. Many expected Ryan and/or Dardenne to drop out, but both pledged to continue on to Super Tuesday. On the democratic side, Edwards emphasized that she was in a virtual tie with Schweitzer and had received the same number of delegates. She said she believed she was in a good position to win at least 5 states on Super Tuesday and change the core narrative of the race.

Total Delegates - GOP

Cruz: 47 (30.1%) - 16 from Haley Endorsement
Ryan: 25 (16.0%)
Dardenne: 22 (14.1%)
Brown: 21 (13.5%)
Rossi: 21 (13.5%)
Wilson: 20 (12.8%)


States won:

Cruz - IA, SC
Brown - NH
Wilson - NV

Pledged Delegates - DEM

Schweitzer: 134 (68%)
Edwards: 63 (32%)

With Supers

Schweitzer: 611 (85.5%) (477 Supers)
Edwards: 104 (14.5%) (41 Supers)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Super Tuesday - Abbreviated Coverage
7:00 PM EST

In the state of Georgia, it is too close to call on both sides. Cruz and Dardenne at the top for the republican race.

In the state of Vermont, we project that Scott Brown will win the republican contest. For the Democrats, too early to call, but President Schweitzer is in the lead.

R delegates: 13+(3*1)+ 1 (R gov) = 17

Brown 37.5% (6)
Ryan 24.6% (4)
Rossi 15.4% (3)
Wilson 9.5% (2)
Dardenne 9.1% (2)
Cruz 3.9%

Total Delegates To Date

Cruz - 47
Ryan - 29
Brown - 27
Dardenne - 24
Rossi - 24
Wilson - 22

States Won:

Cruz - IA, SC
Brown - NH, VT
Wilson - NV

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

-Now that the early states are over, the equation for Dem. Delegates is changing slightly. You know that 1/2 multiplier at the beginning? From now on, it may be different in certain states - a 1.0 multiplier, or a 1.5 multiplier, and etc. You will see a case of this below. This is done to help the delegate numbers better account for the population of these larger states.-

Super Tuesday - Abbreviated Coverage
8:00 PM EST

A lot of polls have closed now, and we have a number of projections and characterizations to announce. We'll start in the Northeast. In the state of Massachusetts, the projected winners are Brian Schweitzer and Scott Brown.

R delegates: 13 + (3*9) + 1 (R gov) = 41

Brown: 55.8% (41)
Ryan: 13.4%
Rossi: 12.5%
Wilson: 8.2%
Dardenne: 7.6%
Cruz: 2.5%

D delegates: 1 * ((60.9/51.0) + (11/538)) * 100 = 121.4 -> 122

Schweitzer: 55.7% (68)
Edwards: 44.3% (54)

In the state of Maine, the projected winners are Brian Schweitzer and Scott Brown

R delegates: 13 + (3*2) + 1 (R gov) + 1 (>40% R house delegation) + 3 (ME-2 for Santorum in '12) = 24

Brown: 43.2% (11)
Rossi: 17.5% (4)
Wilson: 15.5% (4)
Ryan: 11.3% (3)
Dardenne: 8.5% (2)
Cruz: 4%

D delegates: 1/2 * ((56.7/51.0) + (4/538)) * 100 = 56

Schweitzer: 60.2% (34)
Edwards: 39.8% (22)

And in the state of Vermont, we can now project that the winner is Brian Schweitzer!

D Delegates: 1/4 * ((65.1/51.0) + (3/538)) * 100 = 32.1 -> 33

11% in: Schweitzer 58, Edwards 42

Final:

Schweitzer: 54.8% (18)
Edwards: 45.2% (15)

---

And now down to the south. In the state of Mississippi, we are characterizing the democratic race as too early to call, but with Edwards in the lead. On the republican side, too close to call between Cruz and Dardenne.

In the state of Alabama, too close to call on the democratic side. On the republican side, we project that Ted Cruz is the winner.

R delegates: 13 + (3*7) + (4.5*0.60*9) + 1 (R sen) + 1 (R gov) + 1 (>40% R house delegation) + 1 (>66% R house delegation) = 62.3 -> 62

Cruz: 34.4% (35)
Dardenne: 21.8% (27)
Wilson: 17.1%
Ryan: 10.4%
Rossi: 10.2%
Brown: 6.1%

In the state of Tennessee, too close to call on the Democratic Side. Also too close to call on the republican side, with Ryan, Cruz, and Dardenne competing for the win.

In the state of Oklahoma, too early to call on the Democratic Side, with a lead for Schweitzer. On the republican side, too close to call, with Cruz, Dardenne, and Wilson competing for the win.

Let's look at some live returns coming in from the state of Georgia:

(8% in)

Schweitzer 57%
Edwards 43%

Cruz 33%
Dardenne 28%
Wilson 21%
(other candidates trail)

An early lead for Schweitzer on the Democratic Side, but we have to note that Edwards is expected to improve markedly when Atlanta and its suburbs come in. There's also a lot of the black vote across the middle of the state that has not yet come in. So it's really too early to say whether Schweitzer is secure or not.

On the republican side, a lesser early lead for Cruz, he will also go down when the Atlanta area comes in, but the question is if they will unite behind Dardenne, which would allow him to overtake Cruz, or if there is a split between Dardenne, Wilson, and perhaps Ryan. Also remember there is a 20% threshold to get delegates, right now three candidates are reaching it, but we'll see if Wilson is still that high at the end of the count.

-----------

Total Delegates to Date


Cruz - 82
Brown - 79
Dardenne - 53
Ryan - 32
Rossi - 28
Wilson - 26

(Pledged only for D's until the end of the night)

Schweitzer - 254
Edwards - 154

States Won - R

Cruz - IA, SC, AL
Brown - NH, VT, MA, ME
Wilson - NV

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

8:30 EST

Polls closing now in the State of Arkansas, and we can say that the republican side is too close to call between Cruz, Dardenne, and Ryan. On the democratic side, too early to call, but Schweitzer is in the lead. Let's look at some real results coming in across the country. Let's start with the Democrats.

MS - <1% in:

Schweitzer 52%
Edwards 48%

Not much to see yet in Mississippi, less than 1% of the vote is in, so draw any extrapolations from this at your peril, but a very nominal lead for Schweitzer does exist.

AL - <1% in:

Edwards 50% (+4)
Schweitzer 50%

Again, less than 1% of the vote is in, and so far Edwards has an extremely nominal lead of 4 votes. But this means almost nothing.

OK - 12% in

Schweitzer 53%
Edwards 47%

A faster count here, and you can see that the Schweitzer lead in our exit poll is so far appearing in the real results as well. But only 12% of the vote is in, so still a long way to go. If there is to be an Edwards surprise here, we would see it in the turnout in Oklahoma City and Tulsa, but we do not have a significant amount of that vote in at this time.

TN - 9% in

Schweitzer 55%
Edwards 45%

So far, so good for Schweitzer in the state of Tennessee, but it could be nothing more than a mirage as we have not seen many returns from Memphis and Nashville yet, where Edwards campaigned heavily.


GA - 20% in

Schweitzer 57%
Edwards 43%

Schweitzer holding up in the state of Georgia, but I can tell you that there is no cracking open of the Bourbon at Schweitzer headquarters over this. Everyone is still waiting for the votes in Atlanta, in Columbus, in Savannah. Still a long night ahead in the state of Georgia.

TX - 3% in

Edwards 51%
Schweitzer 49%

Some of the polls in Texas don't close until the top of the hour, so no official characterization of the race just yet, but you see Edwards up so far. This is a state that Edwards has been really trying to turn her way to really send a shock through the democratic electorate and generate real momentum.

The Edwards campaign believes that if it wins in Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia, and here in Texas, that even though Schweitzer's delegate lead will still have a significant net gain from tonight due to the western states that we'll get later on, the shock of Edwards getting 5 wins tonight will send her into a big victory in Louisiana on Thursday and, they hope, a victory in all 5 states voting on March 10th, including the all important state of Ohio, and create momentum that they can ride all the way to the nomination.

------------

Looking at the republican results now,

MS - <1% in:

Cruz 28%
Dardenne 26%
Ryan 19%

Cruz with the smallest of early leads, but does this mean anything? The answer is no.

OK - 12% in:

Cruz 29%
Dardenne 23%
Wilson 23%

So far so good in the state of Oklahoma for Mr. Cruz, but only 12% of the vote is in and our exit poll strongly hints at a close result than this. We'll keep watching this state and see if anything changes.

TN - 9% in:

Dardenne 23%
Ryan 23%
Cruz 22%
Rossi 15%


You can see here just how insanely close this race in Tennessee is. We expect this one to be very close all night long. In terms of delegates, the winner won't really matter, there may in fact be no difference at all between 1st and 3rd in terms of how many delegates they get, but I have to tell you, when you talk to the Ryan campaign, they are really counting on this state to put some life into their campaign. Yes, they're holding out hope in Arkansas, and they'll win Alaska most likely, but you go to Tennessee, it's a state known for its moderate conservatism, and Ryan's hope is that with a win here, he can go to the more moderate republican electorates across the country, including the ones that vote on March 10th - Ohio and Florida - and get them to back him in much bigger numbers. However, if Ryan loses Tennessee, it may very well be time for him to drop out.

GA - 20% in

Cruz 33%
Dardenne 28%
Wilson 20%

Just like on the democratic side, it's a waiting game for Atlanta and its surroundings, for Columbus, for Savannah.

TX - 3% in

Cruz 46%
Dardenne 13%
Wilson 12%
Rossi 12%
Ryan 10%
Brown 7%

As expected, Cruz has a big lead in his home state of Texas, but so far, under a majority. Cruz will get all of the delegates here regardless unless one of the others can work themselves up to 20% of the vote by the end of the night, but Cruz would prefer to deny his opponents any narrative they can get out of a majority of Texans choosing a non-Cruz candidate.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

9:00 EST

More polls closing across the country and we have more projections and characterizations for you. We'll start out west. In Wyoming, President Schweitzer is the winner on the democratic side. Too early to call on the republican side, but Rossi is in the lead.

D delegates: 1/4 * ((29.9/51.0) + (3/538)) * 100 = 14.8 -> 15

Schweitzer: 64.1% (10)
Edwards: 35.9% (5)

In North Dakota, Schweitzer and Rossi are the projected winners

D delegates: 1/4 * ((41.2/51.0) + (3/538)) * 100 = 20.3 -> 21

Schweitzer: 70.7% (15)
Edwards: 29.3% (6)

R delegates: 13 + (3*1) + (4.5*0.60*3) + 2 (2016+18 R sen) + 1 (>40% R house delegation) + 1 (>66% R house delegation) = 28.1 -> 28

Rossi: 40.6% (12)
Wilson: 25.3% (7)
Ryan: 16.3% (5)
Brown: 15% (4)
Dardenne: 1.8%
Cruz: 1.0%

In the state of Colorado, Schweitzer wins on the democratic side. Too close to call between Wilson and Rossi on the republican side.

D delegates: 3/4 * ((49.5/51.0) + (9/538)) * 100 = 74.1 -> 75

Schweitzer: 58.4% (44)
Edwards: 41.6% (31)

Up to Minnesota. Too early to call on the democratic side, but we can say that Schweitzer is leading. On the republican side, too close to call with Ryan and Cruz competing for the win.

And down to Texas. Too close to call on the democratic side. Yes, you heard that right, too close to call. The Edwards people have to be jumping for joy at this. If they do pull it off, it could be a major blow to the Schweitzer people, though they of course have to pull off wins in other southern states as well. We'll show you the live returns from the state shortly. Meanwhile, on the republican side, Ted Cruz easily wins his home state and gets all the delegates.

R delegates: 13 + (3*36) + (4.5*0.60*38) + 1 (R sen) + 1 (R gov) + 1 (>40% R house delegation) + 1 (>66% R house delegation) = 227.6 -> 228

Cruz 50.4% (228)
Dardenne 12%
Wilson 11%
Rossi 11%
Ryan 8.6%
Brown 7%

-----

Total Delegates to Date

Cruz - 310
Brown - 83
Dardenne - 53
Rossi - 40
Ryan - 37
Wilson - 33

(Pledged only for D's until the end of the night)

Schweitzer - 323
Edwards - 196

States Won - R

Cruz - IA, SC, AL, TX
Brown - NH, VT, MA, ME
Wilson - NV
Rossi - ND

[Kingpoleon]

Wilson, Rossi, and Dardenne are the only ones I'm sure I'd vote for.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Wilson, Rossi, and Dardenne are the only ones I'm sure I'd vote for.

Considering I haven't really been THAT specific on their platforms, not sure how you can be sure that you would vote for any of them.

[Kingpoleon]

What specifics you have provided combined with what I know about them in real life have convinced me. Dardenne seems like an interesting Southern maverick, Wilson is most assuredly a moderate if not moderate liberal Republican, and Rossi can feasibly win an election in Washington State. Ryan, Paul, and Schweitzer all might get my votes.

What's going on with the Reform Party and the Libertarian Party at this time?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

What specifics you have provided combined with what I know about them in real life have convinced me. Dardenne seems like an interesting Southern maverick, Wilson is most assuredly a moderate if not moderate liberal Republican, and Rossi can feasibly win an election in Washington State. Ryan, Paul, and Schweitzer all might get my votes.

What's going on with the Reform Party and the Libertarian Party at this time?

Rossi is the representative for the Washington 8th District - The district that Reichert (R) holds in RL. Very different from winning an election statewide.

The reform party basically doesn't exist in RL, and no reason why it would exist here. The libertarian party has had no reason to rise to significance, and so it hasn't. More moderate Rs held their nose for Santorum in '12 to defeat Obama, and the 2015 immigration deal was enough of an olive branch to keep any major defection from happening in '16.

[Kingpoleon]

I meant their potential nominees. For example, are any major people running? I'll send you some ideas.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Let's look at some live returns coming in across the country from the unprojected races:

Mississippi (3% in)

Edwards 52%
Schweitzer 48%

Dardenne 29%
Cruz 25%
Ryan 19%

Edwards in the lead here, just as our exit poll forecasted, but only 3% of the vote is in and we are staying cautious. No projection at this time. You see Dardenne in the lead on the republican side. We'll see if he keeps that lead.

Alabama (5% in):


Edwards 58%
Schweitzer 42%

The black belt is coming in early and big for Edwards, giving her this big lead you see. We do expect the race to tighten once the more white areas come in, but this is a very good sign for Edwards nonetheless. Still, we have to caution you, only 5% of the vote is in. Do not extrapolate too much from this.

Oklahoma (28% in):

Schweitzer 52%
Edwards 48%

Cruz 27%
Dardenne 24%
Wilson 22%

So far so good for Schweitzer and Cruz in Oklahoma, but still just under 3 quarters of the vote uncounted. I do have to point out though on the democratic side, you look at Tulsa here, and you see a tie between Schweitzer and Edwards. You look at Oklahoma City, Edwards only up six. The rest of the state is going for Schweitzer by a significant margin, so if you are Edwards, you know you have to start doing much better in both of those places if you want to actually pull off a win here.

Arkansas (14% in)

Schweitzer 54%
Edwards 46%

Cruz 24%
Dardenne 24%
Ryan 21%

Schweitzer has a lead, but still a long way to go here. But you see here, Edwards only up by six in Little Rock. She needs to get a bigger margin than that if she is to pull ahead here eventually. The republican race is going down to the wire and we'll be watching it very late into the night.

Tennessee (16% in)

Schweitzer 54%
Edwards 46%

Ryan 24%
Dardenne 22%
Cruz 22%
Rossi 15%

So far, Ryan treading water in the state of Tennessee, but I have to say it is not a good sign for his campaign that they only winning this, a state they were counting on, by only 2%. Just 2%. We know it's close in Minnesota, Ryan is behind in Arkansas, and you look at Alaska, it's a caucus. You can never count on a caucus state. When you are looking at the returns overall so far, this is just not Ryan's night, and there may be a lot of pressure on him to get out once we get a conclusion here and in other states. On the democratic side, we are still waiting on major returns from Memphis, so Schweitzer should not get too cocky yet.

Georgia (36% in)

Schweitzer 56%
Edwards 44%

Cruz 31%
Dardenne 29%
Wilson 21%

As you can see, both contests have narrowed slightly here as more urban areas start to come in. But still a very long way to go.

Texas (9% in)

Edwards 54%
Schweitzer 46%

And in perhaps the most crucial state for her campaign, Edwards has the early lead. But emphasis on early.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

9:16 EST:

And we can now project that Schweitzer has suffered his first loss of the primary campaign - Edwards has won the primary in the state of Mississippi!

11% in - Edwards 55, Schweitzer 45

Final:

Delegates: 1/2 * ((42.7/51.0) + (6/538)) * 100 = 42.4 -> 43

Edwards 55.7% (25)
Schweitzer 43.3% (18)

9:44 EST:

That sigh of relief you just heard is from the Schweitzer Campaign - Schweitzer has just won the primaries in Oklahoma and Arkansas!

OK delegates: 1/2 * ((33.9/51.0) + (7/538)) * 100 = 33.8 -> 34

46% in: Schweitzer 52, Edwards 48
Final:

Schweitzer: 53.5% (19)
Edwards: 46.5% (15)

AR delegates: 1/2 * ((38.3/51.0) + (6/538)) * 100 = 38.1 -> 39

35% in: Schweitzer 56, Edwards 44
Final:

Schweitzer: 53.9% (22)
Edwards: 46.1% (17)

-----

D Delegates to Date:

Schweitzer - 382
Edwards - 253

States won:

Schweitzer - IA, NH, NV, SC, MA, ME, VT, WY, ND, CO, OK, AR
Edwards - MS

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

10 PM EST

We now have the results from the contest held in the territory of American Samoa. First take a look at this lavenous landslide for the president.

D delegates: 7

Schweitzer: 67.8% (5)
Edwards: 22.5% (2)
Uncommitted: 9.7%

On the republican side, they chose Mr. Rossi. Don't read too much into this, these things are never very predictable or momentum-generating.

R delegates: 9 - only 5 are bound

Rossi: 39.6% (5)
Brown: 24.4%
Ryan: 13%
Wilson: 9%
Cruz: 8%
Dardenne: 6%

Unbound delegates: 4

Now, we have some results coming in from the state of Minnesota. You see Edwards in the lead here, that would be quite the shocker if it holds, but it probably won't - only 5% of the vote is in and the urban vote comes first in Minnesota, and that is where the minority population is in the state. Thankfully for Schweitzer, it only represents 2 of the state's 8 congressional districts - we do expect Schweitzer to win the 3 suburban districts, even if only narrowly, and then dominate in the 3 rural districts.

Edwards: 53%
Schweitzer: 47%

Ryan: 31%
Cruz: 22%
Brown: 14%

Now take a look at the first results coming out of the republican caucuses in Wyoming and Colorado.

WY (<1% in):

Rossi: 39%
Wilson: 23%
Cruz: 12%
Dardenne: 12%

CO (<1% in):

Rossi: 35%
Wilson: 27%
Cruz: 14%
Dardenne: 13%

And to the other uncalled contests:

Texas DEM (26% in):

Edwards: 52%
Schweitzer: 48%

Mississippi REP (30% in):

Dardenne: 28%
Cruz: 26%
Ryan: 20%

Alabama DEM (22% in):

Edwards: 56%
Schweitzer: 44%

Arkansas REP (45% in):

Dardenne: 25%
Cruz: 23%
Ryan: 21%

Tennessee DEM and REP (50% in):

Schweitzer: 51%
Edwards: 49%

Ryan: 25%
Dardenne: 22%
Cruz: 21%
Rossi 15%

Georgia DEM and REP (55% in):

Schweitzer: 55%
Edwards: 45%

Cruz: 30%
Dardenne: 29%
Wilson: 21%

And in the state of Oklahoma, we can now project that Ted Cruz will win the republican contest there.

59% in: Cruz 28, Dardenne 23, Wilson 22

Final:

Delegates:  13 + (3*5) + (4.5*0.60*7) + 1 (R sen) + 1 (R gov) + 1 (>40% R house delegation) + 1 (>66% R house delegation) = 50.9 -> 51

Cruz: 26.5% (20)
Dardenne: 24.3% (17)
Wilson: 21.2% (14)
Rossi: 12.5%
Ryan: 10%
Brown: 5.5%

-----------

Delegates to Date:

Cruz - 330
Brown - 83
Dardenne - 70
Wilson - 47
Rossi - 45
Ryan - 37
Unbound - 4

Schweitzer - 387
Edwards - 255

States Won - R:

Cruz - IA, SC, AL, TX, OK
Brown - NH, VT, MA, ME
Wilson - NV
Rossi - ND, AS

States Won - D:

Schweitzer - IA, NH, NV, SC, MA, ME, VT, WY, ND, CO, OK, AR, AS
Edwards - MS

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

10:36 EST

Mr. Rossi has won the republican caucuses in Wyoming and Colorado!

WY (16% in): Rossi 41, Wilson 21

Final:

Delegates: 13 + (3*1) + (4.5*0.60*3) + 1 (R sen) + 1 (R gov) + 1 (>40% R house delegation) + 1 (>66% R house delegation) = 28.1 -> 28

Rossi 37.5% (11)
Wilson 24% (7)
Cruz 12.7% (4)
Dardenne 12.3% (3)
Ryan 10.5% (3)
Brown 3%

CO (40% in): Rossi 34, Wilson 26

Final:

Delegates: 13 + (3*7) + (4.5*0.30*9) + 1 (R sen) + 1 (>40% R House delegation) + 1 (>66% R House Delegation) = 49.15 -> 49

Rossi 31.5% (16)
Wilson 26.4% (13)
Ryan 17.6% (9)
Cruz 11.5% (6)
Brown 9.2% (5)
Dardenne 3.8%

-------------

Cruz - 340
Brown - 88
Dardenne - 73
Rossi - 72
Wilson - 67
Ryan - 49
Unbound - 4

[GoTfan]

Looks like Edwards is giving Schweitzer a bit of a fright.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

*I noticed an error on the republican calculations in Texas and Oklahoma. The earlier posts have been edited, and this post reflects all corrections.*

11:00 PM EST

The polls have closed in the state of Idaho, and Schweitzer has won it by a YUGE margin!

Delegates: 1/2 * ((32.0/51.0) + (4/538)) * 100 = 31.7 -> 32

Schweitzer: 74.7% (24)
Edwards: 25.3% (8)

Rossi has won on the republican side!

Delegates: 13 + (3*2) + (4.5*0.60*4) + 1 (R sen) + 1 (R gov) + 1 (>40% R house delegation) + 1 (>66% R house delegation) = 33.8 -> 34

Rossi 45.3% (16)
Wilson 21% (7)
Cruz 13.6% (5)
Dardenne 12% (4)
Ryan 7% (2)
Brown 1.1%

We are also projecting Tennessee for Ryan!

77% in: Ryan 26, Dardenne 21, Cruz 21

Final:

Delegates: 13 + (3*9) + (4.5*0.60*11) + 1 (R sen) + 1 (R gov) + 1 (>40% R house delegation) + 1 (>66% R house delegation) = 73.7 -> 74

Ryan 24.9% (27)
Dardenne 22.5% (24)
Cruz 21.7% (23)
Rossi 15%
Brown 8.5%
Wilson 7.4%

Georgia goes for Dardenne!

77% in: Dardenne 31, Cruz 29, Wilson 22

Final:

Delegates: 13 + (3*14) + (4.5*0.60*16) + 2 (R sen) + 1 (>40% R house delegation) + 1 (>66% R house delegation) = 102.2 -> 102

Dardenne 31.7% (39)
Cruz 28.3% (35)
Wilson 21.8% (28)
Ryan 11%
Rossi  4.5%
Brown 2.7%

--------------

Delegates to Date:

Cruz - 403
Dardenne - 140
Wilson - 102
Brown - 88
Rossi - 88
Ryan - 79
Unbound - 4

Schweitzer - 411
Edwards - 263

States Won - R:

Cruz - IA, SC, AL, TX, OK
Brown - NH, VT, MA, ME
Wilson - NV
Rossi - ND, AS, WY, CO, ID
Ryan - TN
Dardenne - GA

States Won - D:

Schweitzer - IA, NH, NV, SC, MA, ME, VT, WY, ND, CO, OK, AR, AS, ID
Edwards - MS

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Texas DEM (51% in):

Edwards: 50% (+605)
Schweitzer: 50%

Mississippi REP (53% in):

Dardenne: 27% (+2,716)
Cruz: 27%
Ryan: 20%

Alabama DEM (46% in):

Edwards: 55%
Schweitzer: 45%

Arkansas REP (73% in):

Dardenne: 26%
Cruz: 23%
Ryan: 20%

Tennessee DEM (77% in):

Schweitzer: 51%
Edwards: 49%

Georgia DEM (77% in):

Schweitzer: 53%
Edwards: 47%

Minnesota DEM and REP (26% in):

Edwards: 51%
Schweitzer: 49%

Ryan: 29%
Cruz: 23%
Brown: 15%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

11:21 EST

We are now projecting Arkansas for Dardenne and Tennessee for Schweitzer.

AR (85% in): Dardenne 26, Cruz 23

Final:

Delegates: 13 + (3*4) + (4.5*0.60*6) + 1 (R sen) + 1 (R gov) + 1 (>40% R house delegation) + 1 (>66% R house delegation) = 45.2 -> 45

Dardenne 25.2% (17)
Cruz 23.4% (15)
Ryan 20.7% (13)
Wilson 16%
Brown 7.7%
Rossi 7%

TN (85% in): Schweitzer 52-48

Final:

Delegates: ((40.3/51.0) + (11/538)) * 100 = 81.1 -> 82

Schweitzer 51.4% (42)
Edwards 48.6% (40)

--------------------------------

Delegates to Date:

Cruz - 418
Dardenne - 157
Wilson - 102
Ryan - 92
Brown - 88
Rossi - 88
Unbound - 4

Schweitzer - 453
Edwards - 303

States Won - R:

Cruz - IA, SC, AL, TX, OK
Brown - NH, VT, MA, ME
Wilson - NV
Rossi - ND, AS, WY, CO, ID
Ryan - TN
Dardenne - GA, AR

States Won - D:

Schweitzer - IA, NH, NV, SC, MA, ME, VT, WY, ND, CO, OK, AR, AS, ID, TN
Edwards - MS

-----------------------------------------

"And there's Heather Wilson coming out to speak. She's earned 82 delegates so far tonight, but will not win any states tonight barring a major surprise in Alaska. Let's see what she has to say."

"(....) All of you, thank you for your support tonight. Unfortunately, tonight's results mean that there is no longer a chance for us to break that highest, hardest glass ceiling. If we are going to defeat President Schweitzer, we must unify as a party, and that means backing someone that appears to be a stronger candidate.

Tonight, I end my campaign and pledge my delegates to Governor Jay Dardenne, the only candidate who can defeat Ted Cruz. I call on Paul Ryan, Scott Brown and Dino Rossi to end their campaigns and pledge their delegates to Dardenne tonight. If Ted Cruz is our candidate in this election, Schweitzer will win re-election and we will lose our majority in the senate. That is the very hard truth. And to prevent Cruz from becoming our nominee, we must unify behind Dardenne tonight.

Don't despair, we will elect a woman president eventually, and I believe sooner than many of us may think. But for now, defeating Schweitzer must be our #1 priority. And that means we must end this campaign. Thank you again for your support. God bless you and God bless the United States of America!"

--------------------

R Delegates to Date:

Cruz - 418
Dardenne - 259
Ryan - 92
Brown - 88
Rossi - 88
Unbound - 4

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

11:40 EST

We have two more projections for the democrats - Minnesota goes for Schweitzer, and Alabama goes for Edwards!

MN (40% in): Schweitzer 52-48

Final:

Delegates: 3/4 * ((54/51.0) + (10/538)) * 100 = 80.8 -> 81

Schweitzer 54.7% (45)
Edwards 45.3% (36)

AL (61% in): Edwards 55-45

Final:

Delegates: 3/4 * ((38.9/51.0) + (9/538)) * 100 = 58.5 -> 59

Edwards 52.3% (31)
Schweitzer 47.7% (28)

--------------

Delegates to Date:

Schweitzer - 526
Edwards - 370

States Won:

Schweitzer - IA, NH, NV, SC, MA, ME, VT, WY, ND, CO, OK, AR, AS, ID, TN, MN
Edwards - MS, AL

-----------------------

Texas DEM (67% in):

Schweitzer: 51%
Edwards: 49%

Mississippi REP (70% in):

Dardenne: 28%
Cruz: 26%
Ryan: 20%

Georgia DEM (85% in):

Schweitzer: 52%
Edwards: 48%

Minnesota REP (40% in):

Ryan: 28%
Cruz: 23%
Brown: 16%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

12:00 EST

Caucus Sites are closing in the state of Alaska. On the republican side, based on entrance polling, it is too close to call between Paul Ryan, Ted Cruz, and Scott Brown. On the democratic side, Schweitzer adds another win to his column!

Delegates: 1/4 * ((40/51.0) + (3/538)) * 100 = 19.7 -> 20

Schweitzer 68.4% (14)
Edwards 31.6% (6)

We are also projecting the state of Mississippi for Dardenne!

84% in: Dardenne 29, Cruz 26

Final:

Delegates: 13 + (3*4) + (4.5*0.60*6) + 1 (R sen) + 1 (R gov) + 1 (>40% R house delegation) + 1 (>66% R house delegation) = 45.2 -> 45

Dardenne 28.4% (17)
Cruz 25.9% (16)
Ryan 20.2% (12)
Wilson 12.7%
Rossi 8.7%
Brown 4.1%

---------------------

Delegates to Date:

Cruz - 434
Dardenne - 276
Ryan - 104
Brown - 88
Rossi - 88
Unbound - 4

Schweitzer - 540
Edwards - 376

States Won - R:

Cruz - IA, SC, AL, TX, OK
Brown - NH, VT, MA, ME
Wilson - NV
Rossi - ND, AS, WY, CO, ID
Ryan - TN
Dardenne - GA, AR, MS

States Won - D:

Schweitzer - IA, NH, NV, SC, MA, ME, VT, WY, ND, CO, OK, AR, AS, ID, TN, MN, AK
Edwards - MS, AL

----------------

Texas DEM (82% in):

Edwards 50.2%
Schweitzer 49.8%

Georgia DEM (92% in):

Schweitzer: 51%
Edwards: 49%

Minnesota REP (49% in):

Ryan: 27%
Cruz: 23%
Brown: 17%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

12:51 AM

Based on our various sources within the campaigns, we can say that there will be no additional dropouts tonight. We also have two more projections. We'll start in Minnesota - Paul Ryan is the winner!

73% in - Ryan 27, Cruz 24, Brown 17

Final:

Delegates: 13 + (3*8) = 37

Ryan 26.4% (10)
Cruz 24.7% (9)
Brown 17.3% (6)
Wilson 11.2% (4)
Rossi 10.4% (4)
Dardenne 10% (4)

We are also calling the state of Texas for President Schweitzer! A crucial, crucial win for him! This was going to be the big state that Edwards was going to win in to prove her strength, her viability, but it has not happened.

93% in: Schweitzer 51.2, Edwards 48.8%

Final:

Delegates: 2.5 * ((41.4/51.0) + (38/538)) * 100 = 220.6 -> 221

Schweitzer 50.7% (112)
Edwards 49.3% (109)

----------------

AK REP (5% in):

Brown 27%
Ryan 24%
Cruz 24%

GA DEM (96% in):

Schweitzer: 50.3% (+9,246)
Edwards: 49.7%

-----------------

Delegates to Date:

Cruz - 443
Dardenne - 284
Ryan - 114
Brown - 94
Rossi - 92
Unbound - 4

Schweitzer - 652
Edwards - 485

States Won - R:

Cruz - IA, SC, AL, TX, OK
Brown - NH, VT, MA, ME
Wilson - NV
Rossi - ND, AS, WY, CO, ID
Ryan - TN, MN
Dardenne - GA, AR, MS

States Won - D:

Schweitzer - IA, NH, NV, SC, MA, ME, VT, WY, ND, CO, OK, AR, AS, ID, TN, MN, AK, TX
Edwards - MS, AL

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

3:07 AM

Governor Scott Brown has won the republican caucus in the state of Alaska!

91% in: Brown 26, Ryan 24, Cruz 23

Final:

Delegates: 13 + (3*1) + (4.5*0.60*3) + 1 (R sen) + 1 (R gov) + 1 (>40% R house delegation) + 1 (>66% R house delegation) = 28.1 -> 28

Brown 25.7% (7)
Ryan 24.5% (7)
Cruz 22.8% (7)
Rossi 14.4% (4)
Wilson 8.3% (3)
Dardenne 4%

R Delegates to Date:

Cruz - 450
Dardenne - 287
Ryan - 121
Brown - 101
Rossi - 96
Unbound - 4


------

GA DEM (99% in):

Schweitzer: 50% (+612)
Edwards: 50%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

8:45 AM

We have the final result from the Georgia Democratic Primary:

Delegates:

1.5 * ((46.9/51.0) + (16/538)) * 100 = 142.4 -> 142

Schweitzer: 50% (+42) (71)
Edwards: 50% (71)

-----------------------------------

Delegates to Date:

Cruz - 450
Dardenne - 287
Ryan - 121
Brown - 101
Rossi - 96
Unbound - 4

Schweitzer - 723
Edwards - 556

With Supers:

Schweitzer - 1202 (479 Supers)
Edwards - 599 (43 Supers)


States Won - R:

Cruz - IA, SC, AL, TX, OK
Brown - NH, VT, MA, ME, AK
Wilson - NV
Rossi - ND, AS, WY, CO, ID
Ryan - TN, MN
Dardenne - GA, AR, MS

States Won - D:

Schweitzer - IA, NH, NV, SC, MA, ME, VT, WY, ND, CO, OK, AR, AS, ID, TN, MN, AK, TX, GA
Edwards - MS, AL

------------

Next Contests - March 5 - LA, KS, UT

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

March 5th Primaries - The Democrats


Louisiana:

Delegates: 0.5 * ((40.2/51.0) + (8/538)) * 100 = 40.2 -> 41

Schweitzer: 51.4% (21)
Edwards: 48.6% (20)

Kansas:

Delegates: 0.5 * ((39.0/51.0) + (6/538)) * 100 = 38.8 -> 39

Schweitzer: 64.4% (26)
Edwards: 36.6% (13)

Utah:

Delegates:  0.5 * ((30.4/51.0) + (6/538)) * 100 = 30.3 -> 31

Schweitzer: 79.7% (25)
Edwards: 20.3% (6)


"A loss in Louisiana for Edwards makes one thing clear - she does not have the momentum coming out of Super Tuesday. Her campaign vows that it will go 5 for 5 on March 10th (MO, FL, NC, VA, OH), but that looks about as likely as pigs learning to fly."

---------------------

Delegates to Date:

Schweitzer - 795
Edwards - 595

With Supers:

Schweitzer - 1274 (479 Supers)
Edwards - 638 (43 Supers)

States Won:

Schweitzer - IA, NH, NV, SC, MA, ME, VT, WY, ND, CO, OK, AR, AS, ID, TN, MN, AK, TX, GA, LA, KS, UT
Edwards - MS, AL

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

March 5th Primaries - The Republicans

Louisiana:

Delegates: 13 + (3*6) + (4.5*0.60*8) + 1 (R sen) + 1 (>40% R house delegation) + 1 (>66% R house delegation) = 55.6 -> 56

Dardenne 48.4% (56)
Ryan 19.3%
Cruz 17.4%
Rossi 9.6%
Brown 5.1%

Kansas:

Delegates: 13 + (3*4) + (4.5*0.60*6) + 1 (R sen) + 1 (R gov) + 1 (>40% R house delegation) + 1 (>66% R house delegation) =  45.2 -> 45

Rossi 32.7% (15)
Ryan 28.7% (13)
Cruz 16.2% (7)
Dardenne 11.3% (5)
Brown 11.1% (5)

Utah:

Delegates: 13 + (3*4) + (4.5*0.60*6) + 2 (R sen) + 1 (R gov) + 1 (>40% R house delegation) + 1 (>66% R house delegation) = 41.2 -> 41

Rossi 50.4% (41)
Ryan 17%
Brown 14.4%
Dardenne 11.2%
Cruz 7%

"After running an aggressive campaign in all three March 5th states, Ryan had 3 second place finishes to show for it, but a mere 13 new delegates, as he failed to keep Rossi under a majority in Utah, and failed to get 20% of the vote in Louisiana. The loss in Kansas, where he had had serious prospects of an outright win, particularly hurt. Knowing it was over, Ryan quickly withdrew from the presidential race and filed to run for another term in the house instead. He pledged his delegates to Scott Brown, who is pinning his hopes on a win in WTA Ohio on March 10th."

-----------------------------------

Delegates to Date:

Cruz - 457
Dardenne - 348
Brown - 240
Rossi - 152
Unbound - 4

States Won - R:

Rossi - ND, AS, WY, CO, ID, KS, UT
Cruz - IA, SC, AL, TX, OK
Brown - NH, VT, MA, ME, AK
Dardenne - GA, AR, MS, LA
Ryan (withdrawn) - TN, MN
Wilson (withdrawn) - NV