The Democratic Revival???

[BuckeyeNut]

How will AL and MS leaving effect the census (if you get to that point)? The House is capped at 435, so it should be interesting. Perhaps IL + OH + PA + NY stop the bleeding.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

How will AL and MS leaving effect the census (if you get to that point)? The House is capped at 435, so it should be interesting. Perhaps IL + OH + PA + NY stop the bleeding.

The size of the house was edited downward to reflect them leaving - so the number of electoral votes will always stay at 523 - unless Puerto Rico becomes a state or something. As far as who is going to lose electoral votes after 2020 - I will say that one of the four states you mentioned ends up not losing anything.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

September 2020

In Mississippi and Alabama, all clerks and probate judges have stopped handing out (useless) SSM licenses, even the most pro-gay of them - more out of fear of arrest than anything else. However there are still a few characters who are refusing to give out any marriage licenses at all to anyone. Moore begins the month by saying he will resume ordering searches of people's houses. At first, several key county sheriffs say no, but are quickly bribed into compliance. A significant number of people are arrested, given shoddy trials, and whipped and locked away for sentences lasting up to 4 years. Moore also tries to arrest Billy Beasley again, but no bribe can get the police to comply with that after resistance to past attempts, so it doesn't happen. In Mississippi, Bryant doesn't order searches of houses, but does start arresting policemen viewed as too "open to gay marriage". Both states engage in several arrests of same sex couples engaging in public displays of affection.

Meanwhile Dardenne successfully gets through many liberal media questions about Alabama and Mississippi, even saying he is "glad" that they have left the union. Also, as the election gets closer, the polls seem to be tightening in several key states, with one poll even showing Dardenne only three points behind in the state of Virginia and two points ahead in Ohio. Schweitzer says he is not worried and is looking forward to putting the election away at the upcoming presidential debates.

Meanwhile, it seems that Republicans are coming around to the idea that despite holding up his nomination since April of 2019, Siri Sirvansian will be on the supreme court. There are some statements made that seem to suggest that if they could be convinced that it would lift Dardenne to victory, key republicans would support Sirvansian's confirmation to the court - banking on the resulting 5-4 liberal majority being short lived due to Breyer retiring at some point in the next couple years. A hearing is briefly placed on the judicary committee schedule, set for the last week of September. However, it is removed from the schedule within 24 hours.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

October 2020

At the debates, Dardenne fails to strike huge blows against Schweitzer. While he makes no huge gaffes, there is no clear knockout moment. While the first debate winner polls and the VP debate polls are very tight, the polls for who won the second and third debates give a very clear advantage to Schweitzer - with a larger advantage in the Third debate than in the Second Debate. The republican party and the Dardenne campaign first tries to spin the debate performances, but by Halloween, it has become clear that this isn't working, and that Schweitzer is going to win reelection. This is demonstrated by what many say is the ultimate concession - Cornyn and Grassley release a joint statement saying they expect Schweitzer's reelection, and that they will begin the proper consideration of the nomination of Siri Sirvansian's nomination with a hearing the week after the election, to ensure that the American People do not have to suffer through an even more liberal nominee, regardless of the results of the senatorial elections. Dardenne condemns the decision and continues to campaign for President, in what appears to be a fruitless effort. It doesn't seem like Schweitzer will get a particularly huge landslide, as his national lead is no longer in the double digits - but it does seem very obvious that he is going to win.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

2020 ELECTION NIGHT COVERAGE - PART 1






Maddow: Welcome to our live coverage of the 2020 Elections! Tonight, we learn if the vote is as expected - a second term for Schweitzer - or if Dardenne can pull off what may be the most impressive election upset in Modern History if he can do it. We'll be here all night, as long as it takes to declare a winner. Before we get to the results, let's review the rules, as things have changed with 48 states in play. First, for the presidential election, there are now 523 electoral votes, not 538 - and the number needed to win is 262, not 270. Now for the senate, here are the number of seats for each party that are NOT up for election tonight:

Democrats: 32
Republicans: 31
Independent: 2 (Both caucus with dems)

Now that the senate has only 96 members, the number needed for a majority is now 49, not 51. A 48-48 Tie is possible - under that scenario, whoever is elected Vice President tonight will break the tie and give their party a working majority.

Now here are the number of gubernatorial seats not up for election tonight:

Republicans: 19
Democrats: 18

25 Seats are needed for a party to have a majority of the governorships. A 24-24 Tie is possible.

For the house, there are now 424 seats instead of 435 seats. 213 seats are needed for a majority, and a 212-212 tie is possible. If that tie happens, expect a wild election for House Speaker on the House Floor in January. Currently, the republicans control the house by a margin of 233-191 - so democrats need to gain 21 seats to tie, and 22 seats for an outright majority.

After a short break, we will bring you the first characterizations of the races where the polls close at 7 PM EST. Stay with us.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

7:00 Poll Closings

And we now have poll closings in six states. If you are in line in any of these states, you must be let into vote. Let's take a look at what we can project so far.



In the state of Vermont, President Schweitzer is the projected winner!

Schweitzer: 62.7%
Dardenne: 35.1%
Others: 2.2%

In the states of Kentucky and Indiana, Dardenne is the projected winner!

Kentucky:

Dardenne: 58.4%
Schweitzer: 39.7%
Others: 1.9%

Indiana:

Dardenne: 53.2%
Schweitzer: 44.9%
Others: 1.9%

In the state of South Carolina, it is too early to call, but Dardenne is in the lead. It is too close to call in Georgia and Virginia.

Dardenne: 19
Schweitzer: 3


Let's now move on to the senate. We can project a Republican hold in the state of South Carolina:

Graham (R): 57.4%
Stamper (D): 37.2%
Others: 5.4%

In the state of Kentucky, it is currently too close to call:

(10% in)

Mongiardo (D): 54%
Bailey(R): 43%
Others: 3%

In Georgia, it is too early to call, but the incumbent senator Saxby Chambliss has a lead. It is too close to call in the critical senate race in the state of Virginia.

Democrats: 32
Republicans: 32
Independents: 2

And looking to the Gubernatorial races, it is too close to call in Indiana:

(7% in)

Holcomb (R): 51%
Buttigieg (D): 45%
Others: 4%

In Vermont, it is too early to call, but the incumbent Phil Scott has a lead.

Republicans: 19
Democrats: 18

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Maddow: We have reporters from both campaigns on standby. Let's go first to Ari Melber, who is with the Dardenne campaign. Melber, what is the mood like at this hour?

Melber: They know it's a tough battle for them, but there were cheers just now when Virginia was declared to be too close to call. They have been campaigning hard in that state and it is a major component of their strategy for victory tonight. They are also looking at Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Maine tonight to lift them over the top.

Maddow: How do they feel about Georgia?

Melber: They are very optimistic about that state - they believe that Senator Chambliss will win very solidly and have reverse coattails that will carry them to a comfortable victory in the state.

Maddow: All right. Let's go to Chris Hayes who is with the Schweitzer campaign. Chris, what's the mood like over there?

Hayes: The mood here is excellent, especially with Georgia being declared too close to call. The campaign feels they are marching to an electoral vote landslide tonight, even if some of the individual state margins are narrow. We are told that Schweitzer expects to speak shortly after the California polls close. This is a very optimistic team here, no doubt about it.

Maddow: Any reaction to Virginia being too close to call?

Hayes: They say that it does not matter whether they win Virginia by 2 points or 12 points, the important thing is that they will win Virginia, and Georgia, and Florida, and North Carolina, and Arizona, on their way to a large electoral landslide.

Maddow: All right, we'll check back with you later in the night. Now allow me to introduce our election night panel - from left to right - Lawrence O'Donnell, Eugene Robinson, Chuck Todd, Brian Williams, Greta Van Susteren, Nicole Wallace. Thoughts on the first calls?

Susteren: Well, I think this is the beginning of an upset defeat for Schweitzer. Virginia was supposed to be a landslide for him, and it is close tonight. Dardenne won the Dixville Notch vote. Georgia may be tight, but everyone knows it would never actually vote D.

Todd: Well, they did elect a Democratic Governor last cycle. The state is changing. And Schweitzer has tried very hard. There is talk that maybe the state is turned off by a northerner being the republican VP....

Susteren: That's a bunch of crap and you know it. Georgia is solidly R. Dardenne will win Virginia or come very very close. And he's going to win Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina. He is going to win - just watch him. This country is not going to elect a democrat for two terms in a row.

O'Donnell: Pennsylvania is not going to vote R. Pennsylvania is solidly behind the blue wall. If Santorum couldn't carry it in his 2012 victory, than no republican can. Republicans just need to give up on the state. I don't know why they keep insisting on it. And Georgia is going to vote for Schweitzer, and I believe, Democrat for Senate as well. Georgia is a blue state and it is ready to show that tonight.

Wallace: Don't get ahead of yourself...

O'Donnell: I'm just saying what is going to happen...

Susteren: You're living in fantasyland....

O'Donnell: Just watch, you'll see it.

Susteren: No, you'll see when Dardenne pulls off the biggest upset in a long, long, long time

Robinson: His tears might set a record, but his electoral performance won't...

(argument continues for several minutes)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

7:30 PM POLL CLOSINGS

And now we have poll closings in three more states. Two are critical to the presidency.



In the state of West Virginia, Dardenne is the projected winner.

Dardenne: 61.7%
Schweitzer: 35.4%
Others: 2.9%

It is too close to call in Ohio and in North Carolina. Let's look at live returns from South Carolina, Georgia, and Virginia:

SC: 2% in

Schweitzer: 63%
Dardenne: 34%
Others: 3%

GA: 1% in

Dardenne: 64%
Schweitzer: 34%
Others: 2%

VA: 5% in

Dardenne: 60%
Schweitzer: 38%
Others: 2%

Dardenne: 24
Schweitzer: 3

Looking at the senate, it is too close to call in the North Carolina senate race, where republicans hope to knock out Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan. In West Virginia, Shelley Moore Capito has been re-elected.

Capito (R): 64.7%
Wells (D): 33.2%
Other: 2.1%

Let's look at the live returns from the Kentucky, Virginia, and Georgia races.

KY (26% in):

Mongiardo (D): 52%
Bailey (R): 45%
Others: 3%

VA (5% in):

Bolling (R): 60%
McAuliffe (D): 38%
Others: 2%

GA (1% in):

Chambliss (R): 66%
Abrams (D): 32%
Others: 2%

Republicans: 33
Democrats: 32
Independents: 2

And looking to the gubernatorial races, it is too close to call in the critical North Carolina race between Republican Dan Forest and Democrat Heath Shuler. In West Virginia, Patrick Morrisey has been re-elected.

Morrisey (R): 59.4%
Green (D): 37.0%
Others: 3.6%

Here are live returns from Indiana and Vermont:

IN (22% in):

Holcomb (R): 50%
Buttigieg (D): 46%
Others: 4%

VT (3% in):

Weinberger (D): 57%
Scott (R): 39%
Others: 4%

Republicans: 20
Democrats: 18

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Maddow: Let's bring in Kansas Independent Senator Greg Orman. He's in a tough fight for re-election tonight in a fascinating three way contest. Mr. Orman, we know that your polls don't close completely until 9 Eastern, but give us what you know now about your chances of winning.

Orman: Well, the turnout in the key areas has been excellent and the reports from those on the ground have been very good. When I went to cast my vote today, there was activity such that it is clear that people across Kansas are coming out to cast their votes in huge numbers, which we believe will benefit our campaign. Ultimately it's going to be close, and if there's a supporter of mine somewhere in Kansas who hasn't voted yet, I definitely need their vote. But we believe we have a good shot at having the votes to win.

Maddow: If the democrats win control of the senate, and you win re-election, would you caucus with the democrats?

Orman: Well of course you never say never, but I've seen little reason that I should. Even if the republicans do end up in the minority even with me caucusing with them, the fact remains that the democratic party does not really jive all that well with my politics and I do not think they will offer any real incentive for me to switch over. So unless that changes in a really meaningful way, I will continue caucusing with the republicans regardless of who controls the senate.

Maddow: But they ran a "real republican" against you! Isn't that sort of a betrayal?

Orman: Well there is also a democrat in the race, so it's not as if they cleared their field to attract me to their side or whatever. And ultimately Majority Leader Cornyn and Majority Whip Thune do not control whether x candidate chooses to run in a given state - it is up to the individual candidate to file in the end. The evidence I've seen is that while there may have been some recruiting by the NRSCC, this did not involve senate republican leaders. And even if it did, well, I hope the people of Kansas appreciate the more moderate voting record that I have presented these last few years in the Senate and I remind everyone that my caucusing decision is to have influence and get on committees, not to choose which majority leader to please with a 95% loyalty rating. I don't vote 95% of the time with anyone, nor will I ever do so. And that's what we're hoping the people of Kansas will appreciate tonight.

Maddow: Do you agree with the decision of the republicans to essentially admit they expect to lose the presidential race and the senate majority by scheduling hearings for Siri Sirvansian during the lame duck?

Orman: I always think it's foolish to declare a race over before it's over. I mean look at 1948 - everyone thought Dewey was inevitable, yet Truman won. More recently, few people seriously believed Santorum could defeat Obama - but it happened. That being said, I do believe that Mr. Sirvansian would be a stellar addition to the court, and if there is a vote for him on the senate floor during the lame duck, I will vote to confirm him.

Maddow: All right, thanks Senator. We will follow your race closely when the polls close there. Let's go now to Chris Matthews who is at a key polling place in the critical state of Colorado, where there will be a close presidential race, and a close senate race, as Sen. Cory Gardner faces a tough battle for re-election. Chris, what's going on over there?

Matthews: The turnout is showing no signs of stopping, with the lines stretching well out the door. I've had the chance to talk to representatives from both presidential and senate campaigns and everyone is expressing optimism about their chances in the state, but also expecting a very long night in the state. And this is a critical polling location, right in the heart of Adams County - a swing county that voted for Obama in 2008, then voted for Santorum in 2012, and then for Schweitzer in 2016. This is really where the state of Colorado could be decided tonight, and every vote could be crucial. But I have to tell you, one republican operative has told me that this is a must-win state and that they believe Dardenne should have chosen Dino Rossi as his running mate, who had western appeal that could have meant something in this state. He says that if the Dardenne campaign loses the state, he will blame the running mate choice - he says that the campaign picking a northerner was not a prerequisite to victory in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, or Virginia.

Maddow: Thanks, Chris. Panel, let's discuss that last point briefly. Choosing Brown over Rossi was a move viewed with some controversy in the campaign. Obviously the jury is still out with nothing important called yet, but do you guys think picking Rossi might have put the campaign in a better position going into tonight?

Robinson: It's hard to say. Rossi had a lot of potential to help out in Nevada, Colorado, perhaps New Mexico, Oregon, but the thing is those places aren't really worth a lot of electoral votes. Brown on the other hand brought in the possibility of being an asset in Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maine, and New Hampshire, which is a more powerful set of electoral votes. Either way Dardenne was going to have to win Ohio, Florida, North Carolina on his own merits - that was clear from the beginning. And if we go by who could "unlock" more EVs beyond that, Brown beats out Rossi 41-27. And that's a significant difference.

Todd: And the thing to remember for this year is that the base calculations are different for the republicans because of the loss of Alabama and Mississippi from the union. So that relatively solid republican block of 188 EVs (OOC: remember that Schweitzer is likely to carry his home state of Montana) - which I should note includes Arizona and Georgia, which are not safe for Dardenne by any means, but let's assume for now he carries them - that 188 decreases to 173 without Alabama and Mississippi. So you have to add North Carolina just to get it back to 188. Then Florida gets it to 217 and Ohio gets you to 235. Then you see the difference - the 27 EVs that Rossi might get you gets you to 262 exactly - it's enough, but there is no room for error, and New Mexico and Oregon become most wins. That's not really a good move. Meanwhile, the 41 EVs that Brown might get you gets you to 276, and in this case you do have some insurance - you can lose New Hampshire and get squat in Maine and you're still okay at 268. Alternatively, you can lose Virginia and Maine's 1st CD and still end up at 262.  So it's not a lot of insurance, but it's some insurance. So while I understand why Colorado Republicans are not happy with the pick, it makes sense from a mathematical perspective, which is really what matters here.

Maddow: All right. We'll be back shortly. Stay with us.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Maddow: Let's take a closer look at what both parties need to do to get control of the nation's most deliberative body: The United States Senate. Kornacki?

Kornacki: Sure. A few critical races will really tell the story of the night. First off, you have the democratic seats in Alaska, Kentucky, and North Carolina - The democrats are ahead right now in Kentucky and in North Carolina, and of course the polls are still open in Alaska. These were the three races that really went against the republican wave of 2014. If republicans want to keep the senate, they will need to make a pick up among this group, or master an uphill battle against Senator Fruedenthal in Wyoming. That's because they are nearly guaranteed to lose something among the six big pickups they made in 2014: Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, and Oregon. If they don't pickup any seats, republicans can only afford to lose one of those six. If they can pickup a seat or two, then their leash gets a lot longer. Finally, you have the longshots for dems - Montana, Arkansas, and Georgia. Any republican path to the senate includes holding all three of those seats.

And looking at the other battle, control of the house, I just want to highlight a few key seats. First of all, the best opportunity for a republican pickup is probably the 2nd district of West Virginia. If they don't pickup that seat, dems may very well gain the house tonight. Also important to watch are the 10th and 17th districts in Illinois, and the 8th in Pennsylvania. Those were all republican gains in 2018. If the dems want to get the house back, they need those three seats. Back to you, Rachel.

Maddow: Thanks. Panel, can the republicans keep the senate?

Susteren: Well, it's a possibility. It will take lot of luck. But looking at these numbers in North Carolina, yes, Hagan is ahead, but she seems to be running behind her 2014 numbers. If we win that seat, and win the presidency, I think we can get to 48 and have a working majority via the vice presidency.

O'Donnell: Hagan may well lose, but I think we get back all 6 of the big R gains from 2014, and we have a real shot in Montana. It's very hard to see the republicans not losing the senate.

Maddow: 8 pm poll closings after the break.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

8:00 PM POLL CLOSINGS

And now we have had poll closings in a whole slew of states. If you are in line to vote in any of these states, you must be let in to vote. We will give you all the calls we can give you right now.



In the state of Illinois, President Schweitzer is the projected winner!

Schweitzer: 57.4%
Dardenne: 40.9%
Other: 1.7%

In the state of Tennessee, Dardenne is the projected winner!

Dardenne: 56.7%
Schweitzer: 40.8%
Other: 2.5%

In the state of Maryland, President Schweitzer is the projected winner!

Schweitzer: 60.2%
Dardenne: 37.5%
Other: 2.3%

In the state of Delaware, President Schweitzer is the projected winner!

Schweitzer: 56.8%
Dardenne: 41.0%
Other: 2.2%

In the District of Columbia, President Schweitzer is the projected winner!

Schweitzer: 90.8%
Dardenne: 7.0%
Other: 2.2%

In the state of Oklahoma, Dardenne is the projected winner!

Dardenne: 63.7%
Schweitzer: 35.1%
Other: 1.2%

In the state of New Jersey, President Schweitzer is the projected winner!

Schweitzer: 56.7%
Dardenne: 42%
Other: 1.3%

In the state of Connecticut, President Schweitzer is the projected winner!

Schweitzer: 55.7%
Dardenne: 42.2%
Other: 2.1%

In the state of Rhode Island, President Schweitzer is the projected winner!

Schwetizer: 61.9%
Dardenne: 35.5%
Other: 2.6%

In the state of Massachusetts, President Schweitzer is the projected winner!

Schweitzer: 59.9%
Dardenne: 37.7%
Other: 2.4%

In the state of Missouri and in the 2nd congressional district of Maine, it is too early to call with Dardenne in the lead.

In the state of Pennsylvania and in the 1st congressional district of Maine, it is too early to call with Schweitzer in the lead.

In the states of Florida, New Hampshire, and the statewide vote in Maine, it is too close to call. Here are the live returns from Florida and the uncalled states from earlier hours:

FL (53% in):

Schweitzer: 51%
Dardenne: 47%
Other: 2%

GA (7% in):

Dardenne: 57%
Schweitzer: 41%
Other: 2%

SC (10% in):

Schwetizer: 50%
Dardenne: 48%
Other: 2%

NC (14% in):

Schweitzer: 55%
Dardenne: 43%
Other: 2%

VA (20% in):

Dardenne: 58%
Schwetizer: 41%
Other: 1%

OH (7% in):

Schweitzer: 61%
Dardenne: 38%
Other: 1%

Schweitzer: 75
Dardenne: 42

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Looking at the Senate now, we can project that in the state of Tennessee, Lamar Alexander has been reelected, easily defeating the Perennial Candidate Gary Gene Davis!

Alexander (R): 65.4%
Davis (D): 32.6%
Other: 2%

In Illinois, Senator Dick Durbin, easily defeating the Businessman James Marter

Durbin (D): 59.6%
Marter (R): 36.1%
Other: 4.3%

In Delaware, Chris Coons easily defeats Carl Smink!

Coons (D): 63.4%
Smink (R): 32.7%
Other: 3.9%

In New Jersey, Senator Cory Booker has been solidly re-elected over the Former Judge Roger Daley

Booker (D): 58.4%
Daley (R): 40%
Other: 1.6%

In Massachusetts, Longtime Senator John Kerry wins yet another term!

Kerry (D): 71%
Ablow (R): 23.7%
Other: 5.3%

In Maine, Senator John Baldacci has been re-elected!

Baldacci (D): 56.5%
Brakey (R): 41%
Other: 2.5%

In Rhode Island, Senator Jack Reed has been re-elected unopposed. In Oklahoma, Senator T.W. Shannon has also been re-elected unopposed.

And in New Hampshire, it is too close to call in the race between Senator Dan Innis and his challenger Mark Connolly. Here are the results so far:

(9% in)

Connolly (D): 56%
Innis (R): 42%
Other: 2%

Let's take a look at the races from earlier hours:

KY (49% in):

Mongiardo (D): 51%
Bailey (R): 46%
Others: 3%

VA (20% in):

Bolling (R): 58%
McAuliffe (D): 40%
Others: 2%

GA (7% in):

Chambliss (R): 60%
Abrams (D): 38%
Others: 2%

NC (14% in):

Hagan (D): 54%
Foxx (R): 44%
Others: 2%

Democrats: 38
Republicans: 35
Independents: 2

And looking at the gubernatorial races, in Delaware, the incumbent governor Peter Schwartzkopf has been re-elected!

Schwartzkopf (D): 57.4%
Ramone (R): 41.4%
Other: 1.2%

In New Hampshire, it is too close to call between incumbent governor Jeb Bradley and his challenger Chris Pappas:

(9% in):

Pappas(D): 56%
Bradley(R): 42%
Other: 2%

In Missouri, it is too close to call between incumbent governor Clint Zweifel and his challenger, Former State House Speaker Tim Jones. Here are the new results from the earlier races:

IN (35% in):

Holcomb (R): 49%
Buttigieg (D): 46%
Others: 5%

VT (12% in):

Weinberger (D): 52%
Scott (R): 44%
Others: 4%

NC (14% in):

Shuler (D): 56%
Forest (R): 42%
Other: 2%

Republicans: 20
Democrats: 19

---------------------

(OOC: I forgot to include NH-Prez in the last update. With 9% in, Schweitzer is up 54-44.)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Maddow: Let's bring in Former Florida Governor and Former Presidential Candidate Jeb Bush. Mr. Bush, your state is too close to call for the presidency. What is going to happen?

Bush: I'm confident that Dardenne is going to come out the victor in Florida, and in Georgia, and in the Carolinas. The question is if he can win in Ohio and Pennsylvania, not if he can win in Florida.

Maddow: But Dardenne is trailing in Florida by 4% currently with over half of the vote in. What gives you that confidence?

Bush: The early vote in Florida always leans democratic and is very misleading. Governor Bill Nelson had a strong lead for much of election night 2018, but ultimately won by just 407 votes. Dardenne has been working very hard to find those 407 votes and flip them our way, along with a lot more votes, and from what I've been hearing from the campaign, I have every reason to believe they have done just that, and you're going to see it as the returns continue to come in.

Robinson: Mr. Bush, this is Eugene Robinson. Last year, you ran a disastrous presidential campaign. Why can you be trusted to predict anything correctly?

Bush: I see no connection between political success and prognostication skills. I was obviously out of practice during my campaign, and I realized that and dropped out before a single vote was cast. But I remain popular in my home state of Florida and I know the Dardenne campaign believes I was a valuable asset to them during the campaign, and you're going to see it when Dardenne wins the state of Florida.

Todd: Mr. Bush, this is Chuck Todd. In recent weeks and days, Businessman and Longtime "Celebrity Apprentice" Host Donald J. Trump has decried you as "low energy", and says that if Schweitzer wins Florida, you and only you are to blame, because your low energy ruined the Dardenne campaign in the state. Are you to blame if Schweitzer wins Florida?

Bush: Again, I don't believe that there's a notable possibility that that happens....

Todd: Schweitzer is leading in Florida right now...

Bush: And you're going to watch that lead evaporate. But to answer your question, I don't think that I solely determine how the campaign goes, there are a lot of different forces working within the campaign, and Donald Trump does not determine who caused what.

Susteren: Mr. Bush, this is Greta Van Susteren. Do you agree with your party's decision to hold hearings on Supreme Court Nominee Siri Sirvansian during the lame duck session?

Bush: I think Sirvansian is a reasonable nominee. He is not the nominee I would have chosen, but that is not the standard as I am not president. We should have confirmed Sirvansian a long time ago, and I think if we had done that we would be in a much better position to win this election. It's unjust that he has had to wait for more than a year now, and we should confirm him in the lame duck - Dardenne can make the court more conservative when Breyer goes in a year or two.

Maddow: All right, Mr. Bush, thank you for your time.

Bush: Thank you for having me.

Maddow: Well, Mr. Bush has confidence, but let's go to Steve Kornacki. What are Dardenne's chances in Florida?

Kornacki: Well, he certainly has a shot at it, but it's going to be difficult. You look at the map right now, and Schweitzer is exceeding his 2016 numbers in Hillsborough, Orange, Osceola counties, and in Palm Beach to Dade strip as well. Dardenne is holding Santorum's numbers in Pinellas and Jacksonville, and Santorum did win this state in both 2012 and 2016, but Dardenne needs to be matching Santorum's numbers in other places as well, and at this point in the night, he is not doing that. I can also tell you that in North Carolina, Schweitzer is overperforming his 2016 numbers, when he lost the state to Santorum. And while Dardenne is probably going to still win Georgia, it is definitely closer than it should be. Back to you, Rachel.

Maddow: So, Nicole Wallace, your confidence in Dardenne's chances in Florida?

Wallace: I'm cautiously optimistic given what we're seeing so far in the panhandle and in Jacksonville, but Dardenne does have to win Hillsborough, and so far he's not doing that. That is probably where the state will be won or lost tonight.

Maddow: Susteren?

Susteren: I share Mr. Bush's confidence. The media always tries to spin it for the democrat, and MSNBC is certainly no exception, but my communications from the campaign give me every reason to believe that Dardenne is going to win this election, and that includes a victory in the state of Florida, and Georgia, and North Carolina. And you're going to watch it happen as the night continues.

Maddow: And we now have another call to make. Dardenne is the projected winner in the state of South Carolina. 9 Electoral votes.

19% in:

Dardenne: 51%
Schweitzer: 47%
Other: 2%

Final:

Dardenne: 52.9%
Schweitzer: 45.3%
Other: 1.8%

Schweitzer: 75
Dardenne: 51

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

8:30 PM Poll Closings

Polls are closing in the state of Arkansas!



We can project that Dardenne is the winner in Arkansas!

Dardenne: 57.3%
Schweitzer: 39.7%
Other: 3%

We can also project that Dardenne is the winner in the Second Congressional District of Maine!

7% in:

Dardenne: 52%
Schweitzer: 45%
Other: 3%

Final:

Dardenne: 54.4%
Schweitzer: 42.8%
Other: 2.8%

Let's take a look at the remaining uncalled races:

MO (1% in):

Dardenne: 60%
Schweitzer: 38%
Other: 2%

PA (1% in):

Schweitzer: 54%
Dardenne: 44%
Other: 2%

ME-1 (4% in):

Schweitzer: 53%
Dardenne: 44%
Other: 3%

ME (5% in):

Schweitzer: 50%
Dardenne: 47%
Other: 3%

FL (67% in):

Schweitzer: 51%
Dardenne: 47%
Other: 2%

NH (20% in):

Schweitzer: 52%
Dardenne: 46%
Other: 2%

GA (15% in):

Dardenne: 57%
Schweitzer: 41%
Other: 2%

NC (32% in):

Schweitzer: 53%
Dardenne: 45%
Other: 2%

VA (37% in):

Dardenne: 55%
Schwetizer: 43%
Other: 2%

OH (18% in):

Schweitzer: 57%
Dardenne: 42%
Other: 1%

Schweitzer: 75
Dardenne: 58

Meanwhile, in the Arkansas Senate Race, we are saying that it is too early to call, but incumbent Senator Tom Cotton is in the lead. We can project, however, that in Kentucky, the winner is the incumbent Senator Daniel Mongiardo. A critical hold for the democrats in the state of Kentucky.

71% in:

Mongiardo(D): 51%
Bailey (R): 46%
Other: 3%

Final:

Mongiardo(D): 49.8%
Bailey (R): 47.4%
Other: 2.8%

Let's look at the other uncalled races:

NH (20% in):

Connolly (D): 54%
Innis (R): 44%
Other: 2%

VA (37% in):

Bolling (R): 56%
McAuliffe (D): 43%
Others: 1%

GA (15% in):

Chambliss (R): 59%
Abrams (D): 39%
Others: 2%

NC (32% in):

Hagan (D): 52%
Foxx (R): 46%
Others: 2%

Democrats: 39
Republicans: 35
Independents: 2

We don't have any new calls to make on the gubernatorial races, but here are the latest numbers:

MO (1% in):

Jones(R): 54%
Zweifel(D): 40%
Other: 6%

NH (20% in):

Pappas(D): 54%
Bradley(R): 44%
Other: 2%

IN (50% in):

Holcomb (R): 48%
Buttigieg (D): 47%
Others: 5%

VT (23% in):

Weinberger (D): 48.4%
Scott (R): 47.9%
Others: 3.7%

NC (32% in):

Shuler (D): 54%
Forest (R): 44%
Other: 2%

Republicans: 20
Democrats: 19

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Maddow: Let's go to Steve Kornacki now, who is looking at some of our exit polling.

Kornacki: Yes, we have a few interesting questions to go through. First, national republicans made a move several weeks ago in scheduling hearings for the Sirvansian nomination that was seen by many as a concession of the presidential race. We asked voters if they agreed with that decision, and they said they did, by a margin of 64 percent to 25 percent. We then asked them if they trusted either candidate with the job of picking of Supreme Court Nominees, and Voters said they trusted Schweitzer with such a role by a margin of 56 percent to 40 percent. Voters trusted Dardenne with such a role by a lesser margin of 52 percent to 45 percent. We also asked voters if they believed it was important for the Supreme Court to have a conservative majority, and received these results:

20% Very Important
25% Somewhat Important
20% Slightly Important
30% Not Important
5% Unsure

Second, the notable refusal of NARAL to endorse Mr. Schweitzer was something the Schweitzer campaign used in hopes of boosting their vote totals in places like Georgia, North Carolina, and Missouri. We asked voters in most of the southern census region, taking out DC, Maryland and Delaware which no one serious considers southern anymore, and adding in Missouri, if the NARAL refusal of endorsement was a factor in their vote, with these results:

5% Most Important Factor
10% A Major Factor
30% A Minor Factor
55% Made No Difference

We also asked voters nationwide who identified as Pro-Choice if they felt Schweitzer was weak on the issue, and they said he was NOT weak on the issue by a margin of 62 percent to 35 percent.

Finally, on the battle for the Senate, we asked voters if Schweitzer can be trusted with a democratic senate assuming the house remains republican, and they said he can be, by a margin of 60 percent to 36 percent. However, voters said by a 50 percent to 48 percent margin that he CANNOT be trusted with democratic control of both houses of congress.

Maddow: All right. Let's bring in the longtime President of NARAL, Ilyse Hogue. Hogue, first, we know that your organization believes that any choice can be justified in this election, but are you willing to say who you personally support?

Hogue: Well, reluctantly, our incumbent president, but he is merely a lesser of two evils in this situation. Both candidates are an embarrassment to women.

Maddow: Schweitzer has protected abortion access throughout the first thirty weeks of pregnancy, only banning it during the last ten. Is he really that much of an embarrassment?

Hogue: Well, when you get to abortion in the final weeks, it's done for very specific reasons, it's not spur of the moment decisions. We don't want to get in the way of trying to set a deadline on what is  a very tough decision that is often done out of great necessity, and while we are very grateful for the inclusion of the Mother's life exception, it's definitely not enough.

Maddow: But many states already prohibited abortion at that stage anyways. Wasn't what Schweitzer did a simple acknowledgement of what federal law basically was already?

Hogue: No, because of the omission of a mother's health exception, and the taking away of the right of a doctor to decide when viability is. Some pregnancies are viable at 26 weeks, some at 35, some not until the final day, and only doctors, not politicians, know when that is.

Maddow: In any case, if Schweitzer really is the better choice for you, why not make that endorsement? Dardenne could set the prohibition to a ban at 20 weeks, or even 15 weeks.

Hogue: Our organization decided by majority that since both candidates' positions are anti-women, differing only in their boldness about it, we did not want to compel our members to vote for either. And we believe that even if Dardenne wins, a democratic senate would prevent him from making significant changes to current law.

Maddow: All right, thanks for coming on. We'll be right back.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

9:00 PM POLL CLOSINGS

Polls are closing a large array of states, including the battleground states of Arizona and Colorado. If you are in line to vote in any of these states, you must be let in to vote.



In the state of Louisiana, we project that Jay Dardenne is the winner!

Dardenne: 62.5%
Schweitzer: 35.3%
Others: 2.2%

In the state of Texas, we project that Jay Dardenne is the winner!

7% in: Dardenne 53-46

Final:

Dardenne: 55.3%
Schweitzer: 43.2%
Others: 1.5%

In the state of New Mexico, we project that President Schweitzer is the winner!

Schweitzer: 56.7%
Dardenne: 40%
Others: 3.3%

In the state of Kansas, we project that Dardenne is the winner!

5% in: Dardenne 53-45

Final:

Dardenne: 59.4%
Schweitzer: 38.2%
Others: 2.4%

In the state of Nebraska, we project that Dardenne is the winner of the state and the first and third congressional districts. Too Close To Call for the 2nd Congressional District and its one electoral vote.

Statewide:

Dardenne: 57.9%
Schweitzer: 40.3%
Others: 1.8%

1st:

Dardenne: 55.8%
Schwetizer: 41.7%
Others: 2.5%

3rd:

Dardenne: 68.9%
Schweitzer: 30.4%
Others: 0.7%

In the state of South Dakota, Dardenne is the winner!

Dardenne: 55.3%
Schweitzer: 43.4%
Others: 1.3%

In the state of North Dakota, Dardenne is the winner!

Dardenne: 55.1%
Schweitzer: 42.8%
Others: 2.1%

In the state of Wyoming, Dardenne is the winner!

Dardenne: 65.7%
Schweitzer: 32%
Others: 2.3%

In the state of Minnesota, President Schweitzer is the winner!

Schweitzer: 56.4%
Dardenne: 41%
Others: 2.6%

In the state of Michigan, President Schweitzer is the winner!

15% in: Schweitzer 50-48

Final:

Schweitzer: 53.4%
Dardenne: 44.5%
Others: 2.1%

In the state of New York, President Schweitzer is the winner!

Schweitzer: 58.4%
Dardenne: 39%
Others: 2.6%

In the states of Arizona and Colorado, it is too close to call. In Wisconsin, it is too early to call, but Schweitzer is in the lead. Here are the new returns from earlier states:

MO (2% in):

Dardenne: 59%
Schweitzer: 39%
Other: 2%

PA (3% in):

Schweitzer: 54%
Dardenne: 44%
Other: 2%

ME-1 (17% in):

Schweitzer: 52%
Dardenne: 45%
Other: 3%

ME (25% in):

Schweitzer: 49%
Dardenne: 48%
Other: 3%

FL (85% in):

Schweitzer: 50%
Dardenne: 48%
Other: 2%

NH (37% in):

Schweitzer: 49%
Dardenne: 49%
Other: 2%

GA (34% in):

Dardenne: 56%
Schweitzer: 42%
Other: 2%

NC (49% in):

Schweitzer: 52%
Dardenne: 46%
Other: 2%

VA (54% in):

Dardenne: 53%
Schwetizer: 45%
Other: 2%

OH (33% in):

Schweitzer: 51%
Dardenne: 47%
Other: 2%

Schweitzer: 135
Dardenne: 123

[Hoosier_Nick]

Reading this now, and I really hope Buttigieg beats Holcomb!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Let's look at the senate now. In Louisiana, we project that Senator Bill Cassidy has been reelected!

Cassidy(R): 58.4%
Landrieu, Gary(D): 40%
Others: 1.6%

In Texas, Senate Majority Leader John Cornyn has been re-elected. We'll see if he has to change his title to Minority Leader later tonight.

Cornyn(R): 61.4%
Van De Putte(D): 36%
Others: 2.6%

In Nebraska, Senator Ben Sasse has been re-elected!

Sasse(R): 58.4%
Domina(D): 38.6%
Others: 3%

In South Dakota, a Republican Pickup, as Republican Nominee Larry Rhoden takes the seat of retiring independent senator Larry Pressler!

Rhoden(R): 56.4%
O'Brien(D): 40%
Others: 3.6%

In Minnesota, Senator Al Franken has been re-elected!

Franken(D): 55.6%
Urdahl (R): 41.6%
Others: 2.8%

In Michigan, Senator Gary Peters has been re-elected!

15% in: Peters 50-47

Final:

Peters(D): 54.1%
Kahn(R): 41%
Others: 4.9%

In New Mexico, Colorado, Kansas, and Wyoming, it is too close to call. We have some returns from Kansas:

(5% in):

Orman(I): 40%
Ryckman, Jr. (R): 36%
Miller(D): 22%
Others: 2%

We can also project that the republican senators in Georgia and Arkansas have been re-elected!

AR, 16% in: Cotton 53-45

Final:

Cotton (R): 54.7%
Eldridge (D): 43.7%
Others: 1.6%

GA, 34% in: Chambliss 58-40

Final:

Chambliss (R): 52.8%
Abrams (D): 45.4%
Others: 1.8%

Here are the latest returns from Virginia, North Carolina, and New Hampshire:

VA (54% in):

Bolling (R): 52%
McAuliffe (D): 46%
Others: 2%

NC (49% in):

Hagan (D): 51%
Foxx (R): 48%
Others: 1%

NH (37% in):

Connolly (D): 50%
Innis (R): 48%
Other: 2%

Democrats: 41
Republicans: 41 (+1)
Independents: 2 (-1)

For the governors' races, the polls have closed in North Dakota, where it is too close to call. However, we can project that in New Hampshire, the democratic candidate Chris Pappas has won, defeating the Republican Incumbent Jeb Bradley!

37% in: Pappas 51-47

Final:

Pappas(D): 50.5%
Bradley(R): 47.6%
Others: 1.9%

We are also projecting that in Indiana, the democratic candidate Pete Buttigieg has won in the race to succeed the retiring republican Mike Pence!

74% in: Buttigieg 49-46

Final:

Buttigieg(D): 48.8%
Holcomb(R): 46.7%
Others: 4.5%


Here are the latest returns from Missouri, North Carolina and Vermont:

MO (2% in):

Jones(R): 53%
Zweifel(D): 41%
Other: 6%

NC (49% in):

Shuler (D): 53%
Forest (R): 45%
Other: 2%

VT (37% in):

Scott (R): 49%
Weinberger (D): 47%
Others: 4%

Democrats: 21 (+2)
Republicans: 20 (-2)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Maddow: Let's go now to Andrea Mitchell, who is at the headquarters of the current Senate Majority Leader John Cornyn. Mitchell, what are you hearing about how good the republican chances of keeping their majority are?

Mitchell: They're cautiously optimistic, because they believe there are good signs coming out of the North Carolina race, which would be a republican pickup if they won there. They are also saying that the exit polling for the Wyoming race is looking good for them. That would be another pickup. They know they will lose some seats - I'm told they're "sweating bullets" in terms of the Oregon race where Gordon Smith is facing a very uphill battle for re-election, and they're not pleased with what's coming out of New Hampshire, but they believe that the eventual winner in Kansas will be someone who will caucus with them, and that they can hold Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Montana, and maybe even Virginia. They also think that there is a chance that if it is a 48-48 tie, Independent Angus King could be persuaded to switch caucuses, which would get things to 49-47 R in that situation.

Maddow: If Cornyn does become Minority Leader, is he prepared to put all the blame on himself, or will he try to deflect it somewhere?

Mitchell: The Cornyn campaign is not happy with how some of the republican candidates across the country have ran their campaigns, particularly in the Alaska race, where they are still holding out hope for a pickup, but believe their candidate has caused Senator Mark Begich to be the favorite in the race. They also think the NRSCC did not listen properly to certain advice given by Cornyn himself. There is also an argument that even with dems in control of the senate, nothing really changes since outside of the Supreme Court, there have been no major efforts to block Schweitzer nominations, and because the house, they believe, will remain republican.

Maddow: All right, thank you for that information. Panel, on the house, it is important to note that we have not called the house yet, which is notable since the house was called for one party or the other by this point in the night in 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018. Is this a sign that the house is in play?

Susteren: No. The margin may not be the best for the republicans, but I've seen no evidence that the democrats will pick up the 22 seats they need for a majority. They may get 10 or 15, but not 22.

O'Donnell: We really only need 21 for a working majority, not 22. A 212-212 tie would mean a consensus speaker, probably someone from the more conservative side of the democratic caucus. We could get a number of democratic bills on to the floor then, and I believe we could find one republican vote per bill to pass them 213-211. No, we're not going to get Elizabeth Warren style liberalism, but we could get through nondiscrimination, a $15 minimum wage, recreational marijuana, and other key priorities.

Robinson: I would just like to say that I wonder how much of this republican optimism about the senate is "just for the camera". I don't think they have the numbers in Virginia, Colorado, or New Hampshire to do this, and they can't get a majority without those, no matter what they get in North Carolina or Iowa.

Maddow: Let's go now to the campaign reporters. Chris Hayes is with the Schweitzer campaign. Hayes, what is the mood like there now?

Hayes: They're very confident. They believe they have Florida in their column even if it's not called just yet. They think they have the votes in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Colorado, and believe they still have a shot in New Hampshire, Ohio, and Virginia even though they are not doing as well as they'd like in those states. And they like that Dardenne is struggling to hold the state of Georgia.

Maddow: Ari Melber is with the Dardenne campaign. Are they starting to give in over there?

Melber: Not by a longshot. They understand that the numbers in certain states, such as Pennsylvania, may not be in their favor, but they are very much holding out hope that they can find a way to 262 electoral votes. They think Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, Wisconsin are all very much in play for them, and they couldn't be happier about the numbers out of Ohio so far. They are saying that the exit polls in Arizona are good for them, and that they believe they will pull it out in Georgia. There was intense cheering here a few minutes ago when Saxby Chambliss was projected to win re-election, which has only fueled their confidence regarding being able to win the state of Georgia.

Maddow: All right, I have to stop you there. We have a call to make in the Governors race in North Carolina. Democrat Heath Shuler is the winner for North Carolina Governor.

55% in: Shuler 53-45

Final:

Shuler (D): 51.3%
Forest (R): 46.8%
Others: 1.9%

Democrats: 22 (+3)
Republicans: 20 (-3)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Maddow: We continue...and we can now call the Governor's Race in the State of Vermont. Phil Scott will continue to be the Governor of Vermont.

48% in: Scott 50-46

Final:

Scott(R): 52.4%
Weinberger(D):  43.9%
Others: 3.7%

Democrats: 22 (+3)
Republicans: 21 (-3)

Let's go now to Steve Kornacki for a look at where the Presidential Race stands. Are we getting close to making any major calls?

Kornacki: Well, Dardenne has to be feeling a bit desperate in Florida. 93% of the vote is in and Schweitzer has a 1.4% Lead. It's not over yet as there is still some vote in Santa Rosa and Jacksonville, but there is also vote left in Broward and a bit in Miami-Dade. But Schweitzer has to be feeling desperate in Ohio. He still has a slight lead there, but he's not getting the numbers he got in 2016 out of the top left area of the state. Also, the turnout in Cuyahoga County, at least in the precincts we have so far, doesn't seem to be all that stellar. Meanwhile, it looks like Dardenne is the favorite in Maine and New Hampshire, although Schweitzer should get the 1 electoral vote for Maine's first congressional district. Picking Scott Brown really helped in those two states. However, they are a poor replacement for what looks like a loss in Florida and potentially North Carolina and Wisconsin. Ultimately, Pennsylvania may become a necessity for Dardenne, and Virginia is definitely a must-win.

And on the battle for the senate, it really looks like democrats will have the votes to pickup New Hampshire and Virginia. That really puts republicans on the ropes in terms of holding the senate, though of course we have to see what happens with New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, Oregon, Wyoming, Alaska, and North Carolina.

Maddow: Hold on there, we have another call. Democratic Senator Kay Hagan has just lost her seat to the republican candidate, Rep. Virginia Foxx. This is a republican pickup.

61% in: Foxx 50-49

Final:

Foxx(R): 50.9%
Hagan(D): 48%
Others: 1.1%

Republicans: 42 (+2)
Democrats: 41 (-1)
Independents: 2 (-1)

Maddow: So how does that result change the equation?

Kornacki: It's helpful to the republicans for sure, but when you talk to democratic sources, they say of the four seats of theirs that were vulnerable, that's North Carolina, Alaska, Wyoming, and Kentucky, North Carolina was the one they were most worried about, so it's not really all that much of a surprise. We already know that the Kentucky seat has been held, and the idea of beating Senator Fruedenthal has always seemed to be a bit far-fetched. And with Begich in Alaska, well, you heard the correspondent with Leader Cornyn sharing significant anxiety on the republican side with that race. So the odds are dems won't lose any more seats. So, going big picture, the dems need 6 more wins to get to 47, at which point they should have a working majority due to Bernie Sanders and Angus King. Wyoming and Alaska gets them to 43. Virginia and New Hampshire, which I think they likelier than not get at this point,  is 45. Oregon, which they should get, is 46. Now let's assume for the sake of Argument that Orman holds in Kansas and still caucuses with Rs, and that the Republicans hold Idaho. With the caucusing decisions, that gets us to 48-44 in favor of Ds. Then the democrats just need to win 1 of the remaining 4 races: Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, and Montana - and the majority is theirs. So even with this loss in North Carolina, the senate is still very much in play for the democrats.

Maddow: All right, thanks for that outlook. So, Panel, thoughts at this point?

Susteren: I'm still optimistic. Dardenne is still very much in play, I believe, in all the battleground states. Republicans haven't really had a bad result in any really crucial senate race yet. Of course I acknowledge that it is quite the path for republicans to the senate and the presidency, but I still think we can pull it out. I will admit though that the governorships are a clear disappointment. Thankfully Phil Scott held on, but those 3 losses so far really sting. If we're going to keep the gubernatorial majority, we have to basically run the table, and that's going to be tough.

O'Donnell: Well, I'm optimistic about Schweitzer. He's favored in Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and I believe North Carolina. We may have the votes to win Virginia, which we were prepared to lose. According to the exit polling, Arizona is very much in play. And the fact that Georgia is still not called yet really speaks volumes in terms of our chances. We'll have to see about the senate, but I think Schweitzer has his second term.

Robinson: I share O'Donnell's optimism. It really does look like Dardenne will lose in the state of Florida, and finding a path to 262 without that looks really hard for him. It's certainly a disappointment that Schweitzer may lose Ohio and New Hampshire, but it doesn't look like he'll need either, especially if he gets Arizona or Colorado.

Maddow: All right, as we go to another break, we have a potentially important call to make. Schweitzer has the first congressional district in Maine, but Dardenne has won the statewide vote.

ME-1: 35% in: Schweitzer 52-46

Final:

Schweitzer: 50.2%
Dardenne: 47.5%
Other: 2.3%

Maine: 44% in: Dardenne 49-48

Final:

Dardenne: 50.5%
Schweitzer: 47%
Other: 2.5%

Schweitzer: 136
Dardenne: 125

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

9:50 PM ET

Maddow: We can now make two big calls in the Presidential Race! Schweitzer has won the states of Florida and Pennsylvania!

Florida: 97% in: Schwetizer 49.7%, Dardenne 48.7%, Others 1.6%

Final:

Schweitzer: 49.6%
Dardenne: 48.7%
Others: 1.7%

Pennsylvania: 36% in: Schweitzer 58-40

Final:

Schweitzer: 51.4%
Dardenne: 46.8%
Others: 1.8%

Schweitzer: 185
Dardenne: 125

So, Kornacki, how are Dardenne's odds now?

Kornacki: Well now that these two states have come into place, it's very tough for him, but let's try and lay out something. Right now Dardenne is at 125. Georgia would put him at 141. Then we come to Virginia and North Carolina. Give them both to Dardenne and he's at 169. Ohio would put him in the lead at 187, and then New Hampshire gets him to 191. Missouri, if he can get it, puts him at 201. Then Colorado would be 210, Arizona 221, Wisconsin 231. Let's also assume Dardenne carries the second congressional district in Nebraska, that gets him to 232. Now we look to the 10:00 states. Give Schweitzer his home state of Montana, that puts Schweitzer at 188. We'll give Nevada, Utah, and Iowa to Dardenne, putting him at 250. Let's move on to the 11:00 states. Idaho puts Dardenne at 254. But then we have the west coast: California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, and closing at 1 AM, Alaska. The likely result there is Schweitzer wins everything except Alaska, which actually turns this scenario into a Schweitzer Victory, 266-257. You see here the effect of the secession of Alabama and Mississippi - if they were still in the union, then Dardenne wins 272-266, but without them, he loses 257-266. So if Dardenne is going to win this, he needs to take either Oregon or Washington State out of the west coast firewall. That's not completely impossible, but it would be a major surprise.

Maddow: So, Susteren, Wallace, reactions to this?

Wallace: Well, it's a disappointment certainly, but this was always going to be a longshot. We'll see if Dardenne can run the table elsewhere, maybe he can, maybe he can't - but the senate is far from decided, the gubernatorial majority is still in play, we should keep the house. This night isn't over.

Susteren: While I am disappointed that Dardenne was not able to get the larger scale victory that pulling out Florida would have provided, I think he stands a solid chance of completing the scenario Kornacki just described. It's definitely not time to give up.

Maddow: 10:00 poll closings coming after the break. Stay with us.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Quite a solid work. Wulfric. You've just earned a sticky as featured TL.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

10:00 PM POLL CLOSINGS

Polls are closing in four more states!



In the state of Utah, we project that Dardenne is the winner!

Dardenne: 64.3%
Schweitzer: 33.4%
Others: 2.3%

In the state of Montana, we project that President Schweitzer is the winner!

Schweitzer: 56.3%
Dardenne: 40.6%
Others: 3.1%

In the states of Nevada and Iowa, it is too close to call.

We can now project the state of Georgia for Dardenne!

55% in: Dardenne 55-43

Final:

Dardenne: 51.0%
Schweitzer: 47.2%
Others: 1.8%

Here are new results from the uncalled states:

MO (20% in):

Dardenne: 56%
Schweitzer: 42%
Others: 2%

NH (64% in):

Dardenne: 52%
Schweitzer: 46%
Others: 2%

NC (74% in):

Schweitzer: 51%
Dardenne: 47%
Others: 2%

VA (77% in):

Dardenne: 51%
Schwetizer: 47%
Others: 2%

OH (51% in):

Dardenne: 50%
Schweitzer: 48%
Others: 2%

AZ (1% in):

Dardenne: 58%
Schweitzer: 40%
Others: 2%

CO (50% in):

Dardenne: 51%
Schweitzer: 47%
Others: 2%

WI (14% in):

Dardenne: 54%
Schweitzer: 44%
Others: 2%

NE-2 (22% in):

Dardenne: 52%
Schweitzer: 46%
Other: 2%

Schweitzer: 188
Dardenne: 147

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Looking to the senate, it is too close to call in both Iowa and Montana. Let's get new results from the other races:

VA (77% in):

Bolling (R): 50%
McAuliffe (D): 48%
Others: 2%

NH (64% in):

Innis (R): 51%
Connolly (D): 47%
Other: 2%

KS (32% in):

Orman(I): 41%
Ryckman, Jr. (R): 36%
Miller(D): 21%
Others: 2%

CO (50% in):

Gardner (R): 51%
Degette (D): 47%
Others: 2%

WY (12% in):

Frudenthal (D): 56%
Gordon (R): 42%
Other: 2%

NM (16% in):

Martinez (R): 56%
Udall (D): 41%
Other: 3%

Republicans: 42 (+2)
Democrats: 41 (-1)
Independents: 2 (-1)

Looking to the gubernatorial races, the republicans have held on in Utah as expected.

Shurtleff (R): 66.8%
Cook (D): 29%
Others: 4.2%

It is too close to call in Montana. Here are the latest results from the other races:

ND (22% in):

Heitkamp (D): 50%
Schmidt (R): 48%
Others: 2%

MO (20% in):

Jones (R): 50%
Zweifel (D): 44%
Others: 6%

Democrats: 22 (+3)
Republicans: 22 (-3)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Maddow: So, Panel, after a lengthy delay, Georgia goes for Dardenne. Is this a sign of the night turning around in his favor, or is it such a late call that it is actually a bad sign?

Todd: Well, certainly it is a good sign for republicans that the state is voting straight ticket republican on the major races tonight, unlike two years ago when it elected a democratic governor. But it is being called a full hour later than it was called for President Santorum on the night he lost re-election, which cannot be comforting - if it being called at 9:00 was bad news for President Santorum, then it being called at 10:00 seems to be bad news as well. But I think the bigger thing to be worried about is North Carolina. Without that state in Dardenne's column, there is not really a path for him at this point. And I know it hasn't been called yet, but we're getting closer and closer to a decision on the state and the Schweitzer lead is holding up. Also, while I don't want to rush to judgement, but Dardenne appears to be underperforming so far in Colorado and only slightly outperforming Santorum in Wisconsin, who lost it by about seven points four years ago. So while there may be a lot of cheering at the Dardenne headquarters over the Georgia call and the Utah call, it could very well be a red herring.

Robinson: We should also point out that one key call was missing from the last list: a call on the status of the house of representatives. In every election year from 2008-2018, the house was called by 9:00. But this time around, we are now past 10:00 and still no call on the house. The republican majority may actually be in danger there, which was really unthinkable a month or two ago.

Williams: And it's important to point out that it is a terrible sign for Dardenne that Virginia is still uncalled with nearly 80% of the vote in. The Dardenne campaign claimed to have locked in a solid three to five point victory in the state, but at this point, he may actually lose the state, which would be a significant accomplishment for the Schweitzer campaign. And of course, having Georgia called this late is just a travesty. It's not over by any means yet and I don't want to predict anything, but I would really be surprised if Dardenne does pull off the extremely narrow path he has to follow now that Florida and Pennsylvania are called for Schweitzer.

Susteren: Now don't start dancing too hard. Dardenne is going to pull it off just watch him. We have the votes in North Carolina, Colorado, Virginia, and all these other states, just wait for them to come in. It's going to be a late night for sure, but that huge crowd at the Schweitzer election party is going to start crying within the next hour or so when they watch that electoral vote lead go away.

Maddow: All right, we have more data now from our exit polling across the country.

Kornacki: Some interesting questions to go over. First off, we asked voters whether they viewed each candidate as honest and trustworthy. Both candidates were viewed as such, but the margins differed. Voters said by 69 percent to 28 percent that Schweitzer is honest and trustworthy, but Dardenne only  managed a margin of 60 percent to 37 percent. We also asked voters about the fairness of the campaign. 58% of voters said Dardenne unfairly attacked Schweitzer, while only 44% said Schweitzer unfairly attacked Dardenne. Another question asked who would handle select issues the best, with the following results:

Who would best handle the economy? - Schweitzer, 57 percent to 40 percent
Who would best handle the constitutional requirement that the budget must be balanced by 2035? - Dardenne, 51 percent to 48 percent
Who would best handle foreign policy as a whole? - Schweitzer, 51 percent to 47 percent
Who would best handle health care? - Schweitzer, 53 percent to 46 percent
Who would best handle policies regarding the legalization or prohibition of select drugs? - Schweitzer, 55 percent to 42 percent
Who would best handle the specific issue of whether to increase or decrease overall spending on the military? - Dardenne, 50 percent to 48 percent

And returning to the issue of abortion, we asked voters whether they would prefer to stay with the current 30 week federal ban, adopt something less strict than that, or adopt something more strict than that, with these results:

43% Status Quo
34% More Strict
20% Less Strict
3% Don't Know/Refused

Let's look at this question specifically among democrats:

60% Status Quo
30% Less Strict
8%  More Strict
2% Don't Know/Refused

And you can see here part of why Schweitzer withstood that primary challenge from Donna Edwards - while there is a faction of his party who is displeased with him, it is far from a majority. Back to you Rachel.

Maddow: All right. Let's bring in the senator from New Mexico who is not up for election tonight, Democrat Martin Heinrich. Mr. Heinrich, it's too close to call in Tom Udall's bid to return to the senate,  but how are you feeling about democratic prospects in that race?

Heinrich: I think we have a great shot. New Mexico is not really that conducive to republican victories in federal races anymore, and Martinez has cast some votes that I don't think went over well with the majority of New Mexicans. I'm certainly aware that he is behind so far, but in my first race, Heather Wilson was ahead for a good portion of the night, but I still won by 3% in the end. That's the sort of win that Mr. Udall is definitely in contention for tonight, and I'd be very pleased with that result.

Maddow: How do you feel about the Presidential race right now?

Heinrich: Well, I certainly like the results that have come in so far, but I'm not one to rush to conclusions. The race isn't over until it's over and getting too confident will only risk jinxing it.

Robinson: Senator, this is Eugene Robinson. If Schweitzer is re-elected and the senate goes democratic, but the house remains republican, does that change to what extent democratic priorities can get through, or does everything remain the same due to republicans still having some leverage?

Heinrich: Well, it would definitely help on the Supreme Court front. Now the republicans say they'll let Sirvansian through in the lame duck, but if they don't, or another vacancy pops up on the conservative side of the court, it will definitely help to surpass any filibuster if we are starting at 49 or 50 instead of starting at 47. Remember that Sirvansian did receive a vote despite not getting a hearing, and got a majority of the senate in favor, but was stopped by the 60 vote rule. Now due to the secession of Alabama and Mississippi, the 60 vote rule has become the 58 vote rule. If all the dems get up to 50, and then Orman's vote is 51, then we only need 7 republicans, versus the 10 we would need at 47+Orman. And while it may seem like a small difference, let me tell you that it actually makes a huge difference. And while the republicans have continued to let lower court judges be approved, there are a couple of nominees that we haven't been able to get through that we could get through with a few more democrats in the senate.

Robinson: Do you believe that Orman will caucus with the democrats?

Heinrich: Well, if his vote decides who the majority leader is, we believe he'll side with us. If his vote  doesn't change who the leader is, we acknowledge it will be a challenge, but we're prepared to make him a convincing offer, and even if he rejects it, the fact remains that he is the most liberal in the republican caucus, and thus the most willing to work with us on select issues.

Williams: Senator, this is Brian Williams. Do you have any plans to run for Governor of New Mexico in 2022?

Heinrich: I'll certainly work very hard to see that a progressive individual succeeds Heather Wilson, but I doubt that I'll be that person. If the democrats have the majority after the 2022 elections, I don't want to risk that being ruined or narrowed through the holding of a low turnout special election in 2023.

Maddow: All right, thank you for coming on. Next is....or actually, hold on.



We have two senate calls to make! In the first democratic pickup of the night, Former Governor Terry McAuliffe defeats Senator Bill Bolling!

VA (85% in): McAuliffe 49-49

Final:

McAuliffe (D): 50.2%
Bolling (R): 48.1%
Others: 1.7%

Also, Democratic Senator Dave Fruedenthal gets another term!

WY (22% in): Freudenthal 55-43

Final:

Freudenthal (D): 52.1%
Gordon (R): 46.5%
Others: 1.4%

Democrats: 43
Republicans: 42 (+1)
Independents: 2 (-1)

I'm also told that the decision desk is almost ready to make a crucial call on the presidential race. Back right after these messages.