The Democratic Revival???

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

2018 Senate Elections Outlook Continued

Utah

Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch was re-elected with 64.9% of the vote in 2012. He is not running for reelection in 2018. Contesting the Republican nomination are Fmr. Sen. Mike Lee (who retired from the senate to mount an unsuccessful 2016 primary challenge to Santorum, and recently rediscovered interest in being part of the senate), U.S. Rep. Mia Love, and Former Governor Mike Leavitt. The democrats are out of luck here - their nominee from 2016 who lost by 'only' 24 points, Doug Owens, is going for Love's house seat, and Jim Matheson has yet again declined a statewide run. Safe R

Vermont

Independent/Democratic/SOCIALIST Sen. Bernie Sanders was re-elected with 70.3% of the vote in 2012. Republicans fantasized about contesting this seat for some time after watching Sanders fail to win VT in the 2016 Democratic Presidential Primaries, but abandoned any effort after getting their dream candidate in the governor's race (more on that later). Sanders will have little to no opposition in his bid for a third term. Safe I/D/S

Virginia

Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine was elected with 51% of the vote in 2012. After watching Republicans win the other senate seat in 2014 and the governorship, lt. governorship (with Pete Snyder), and Attorney General (with Mark Obenshain) in 2017, he is very worried for his political future. State Senators Jeff McWaters and Bryce Reeves are already in the race along with Fmr. U.S. Rep. Eric Cantor. U.S. Rep. Randy Forbes and 2013 Gubernatorial Nominee Ken Cuccinelli are considering a bid. Rate this Likely D with Cantor or Cuccinelli, Lean D with McWaters or Reeves, Tilt D with Forbes

Washington

Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell was re-elected with 59.6% of the vote in 2012. No strong challenge is expected. Safe D

West Virginia

Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin was re-elected with 59.1% of the vote in 2012. However, in 2018 he will face by far the hardest battle of his political life, as Republicans have cleared the field for U.S. Rep. David McKinley. Manchin has kept up a moderate record in the Senate, but McKinley is hardly a firebrand conservative, and early polls show Manchin up by only single digits. West Virginia has rapidly gotten more republican in recent years, and Manchin is the only democrat remaining in the state's congressional delegation. This race will be a key test of just how republican West Virginia is. Lean D

Wisconsin

Republican Sen. Tommy Thompson was elected with 49.3% of the vote in 2012. U.S. Rep. Ron Kind will be his challenger in 2018. A very close contest is expected. Pure Toss-Up

Wyoming

Republican Sen. John Barrasso was elected with 76.5% of the vote in 2012, and is safe for another term. Safe R

Current Senate Status:

54 Republicans
42 Democrats
4 Independents (3 caucus with Democrats, 1 caucuses with Republicans)

Total Democratic Seats Up for election: 18
Total Independent Seats Up for election: 2
Total Republican Seats Up for election: 13

Holdover Seats:

41 Republicans
24 Democrats
2 Independents (1 caucuses with Democrats, 1 caucuses with Republicans)

[Kingpoleon]

Could you explain why Cucinelli is so unelectable in your opinion? From my understanding, he was merely ran over by an even better Democratic candidate because he didn't have time to prepare.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Could you explain why Cucinelli is so unelectable in your opinion? From my understanding, he was merely ran over by an even better Democratic candidate because he didn't have time to prepare.

He is a personhood supporter, he is extremely conservative on immigration, and per wikipedia, he even supports outlawing homosexual sex.

[Classic Conservative]

Could you explain why Cucinelli is so unelectable in your opinion? From my understanding, he was merely ran over by an even better Democratic candidate because he didn't have time to prepare.

He is a personhood supporter, he is extremely conservative on immigration, and per wikipedia, he even supports outlawing homosexual sex.

He came in within 3% of winning in the governors race.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Could you explain why Cucinelli is so unelectable in your opinion? From my understanding, he was merely ran over by an even better Democratic candidate because he didn't have time to prepare.

He is a personhood supporter, he is extremely conservative on immigration, and per wikipedia, he even supports outlawing homosexual sex.

He came in within 3% of winning in the governors race.

Because:

1) McAuliffe honestly sucked as a nominee
2) Republicans couldn't have asked for a better last 3 weeks or so with the whole ObamaCare website crash thing.

This isn't much of a factor in the rating, but do remember that Fall 2013 was dramatically altered in Romney Downfall. The govt. shutdown never happened, and the website crash thing was effectively neutralized due to the fact that the dynamic of a republican president and a divided congress dealing with it resulted in plenty of blame being thrown both ways. McAuliffe won 49-44 instead of 48-45.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

2018 Gubernatorial Elections Outlook

Currently, republicans hold a 34-15 majority. Democrats are looking to pick up much more than the 11 seats they need to retake the majority (10 if the Independent in Alaska holds on) in order to have as much control as possible over the 2020 redistricting process. Republicans do have some room for further gains (including one particularly good opportunity), but the focus will be on the most vulnerable republican seats.

Alabama

Republican Gov. Robert Bentley was re-elected with 64.9% of the vote in 2014. He is term-limited in 2018, and there is a crowded republican field competing to take his place. U.S. Reps. Martha Roby and Robert Aderholt are already in the race, along with Lt. Gov. Kay Ivey and Attorney General Luther Strange, with Justice Roy Moore rumored to be considering a bid. Democrats have absolutely no one who can win in this deeply republican state. Safe R

Alaska

Independent Gov. Bill Walker was elected with 50% of the vote in 2014. Democrats have confirmed they will not run anyone against him, but the Republicans have a field consisting of Former State House Speaker John Harris, 2010 Senate Nominee Joe Miller, and 2014 Senate Candidate Dan Sullivan.  A very competitive race is expected. Pure Toss-Up

Arizona

Republican Gov. Doug Ducey was elected with 55.4% of the vote in 2014. U.S. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick has taken up the tough task of defeating him. Ducey starts with the advantage. Lean R

Arkansas

Republican Gov. Asa Hutchinson was elected with 55.4% of the vote in 2014 and is safe for another term. Safe R

California

Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown was re-elected with 58.5% of the vote in 2014. He is term-limited, creating a huge promotion opportunity for state democrats. Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, State Controller Steve Westly, Sec. of State Alex Padilla, and Environmentalist Tom Steyer are already in the race, and U.S. Rep. Scott Peters is reportedly considering a run. The Republicans have cleared the field for Former Mayor Kevin Faulconer and Fmr. U.S. Rep David Dreier. This is the race where the top two primary has a good chance of finally turning against democrats, but it is Safe D as long as a Democrat reaches the general.

Colorado

Republican Gov. Scott Gessler was elected with 49.5% of the vote in 2014. Fmr. U.S. Sen Ken Salazar will be the democratic nominee. Pure Toss-Up

Connecticut

Republican Gov. Chris Shays was elected with 51.3% of the vote in 2014. State Comptroller Kevin Lembo and Attorney General George Jepsen are contesting the democratic nomination. Pure Toss-Up

Florida

Democratic Gov. Bill Nelson was elected with 52.1% of the vote in 2014. He is fairly popular, but republicans will be nominating either State Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam or State Chief Financial Officer Jeff Atwater, both of which are running close to Nelson in early polling. Tilt D

Georgia

Republican Gov. Nathan Deal was reelected with 52.1% of the vote in 2014. He is term-limited. This is a rare open seat contest where both nominees have already been decided - Republicans have cleared the field for Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle, and Democrats have coalesced around Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed. Democrats continue to insist that Georgia is moving toward battleground state status, but a midterm year seems an unlikely candidate for the year Georgia will become a battleground state. But Deal's time as governor remains controversial, and Reed appears to be an excellent candidate, at least on paper. Bottom Line: This remains a tough state for Democrats, but keep an eye on this race. Lean R

Hawaii

Democratic Gov. David Ige was elected with 50.4% of the vote in 2014. Fmr. U.S. Rep. Charles Djou will be the republican nominee but needs a real wave to win. Likely D

Idaho

Republican Gov. Butch Otter was re-elected with 52.9% of the vote in 2014. He is not running for reelection. Lt. Gov. Brad Little and U.S. Rep. Raul Labrador are contesting the republican nomination. Democrats are hopeless in this deeply republican state. Safe R

Kansas

Democratic Gov. Paul Davis was elected with 53% of the vote in 2014. The Republican nominee will be U.S. Rep. Kevin Yoder. Davis starts as an underdog according to current polling. Lean R

Maine

Democratic Gov. Mike Michaud was elected with 46.7% of the vote in 2014. U.S. Sen. Susan Collins has announced her bid for the seat. Michaud is making a vailant effort to retain his seat, but it's very hard to see a situation in which the popular Senator does not win. This is easily the republicans' best pickup opportunity this cycle. Likely R

Maryland

Republican Gov. Larry Hogan was elected with 51.6% of the vote in 2014. Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake and Fmr. State Delegate Heather Mizeur are contesting the democratic nomination. Hogan starts as an underdog to both. Lean D

 

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

2018 Gubernatorial Elections Outlook

--Unintentionally skipped over a couple states in the last update, so this starts with those and then continues on where the last post left off---

Illinois

Republican Gov. Kirk Dillard was elected with 52.4% of the vote in 2014. His approval ratings are consistently above 55%, but Democrats aren't just going to concede such a left-leaning state. Dillard's popularity has scared away many top challengers - except for one - Democrats have convinced Attorney General Lisa Madigan to run for governor, and she has cleared the field. Dillard has a 14 point lead in the latest poll and appears secure, but in such a left-leaning state, you just never know. Likely R

Iowa

Republican Gov. Terry Branstad was re-elected with 60.2% of the vote in 2014. He is retiring - this time for good. Agriculture Secretary Bill Northey and Sec. of State Paul Pate are contesting the republican nomination. State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald and State Sens. Liz Mathis and Janet Peterson are contesting the democratic nomination. Pure Toss-Up

Massachusetts

Republican Gov. Scott Brown was elected with 52.7% of the vote in 2014. He is immensely popular and has an approval rating of over 65%. Democrats have only managed to recruit Fmr. U.S. Rep. Bill Keating (who lost his seat to Charlie Baker in 2014) into the race. Brown should win, but smart observers will remember that Brown was popular in 2012 (though not this popular) but still lost reelection to the Senate by 4%. In such a left-leaning state, an upset can't be ruled out. Likely R

Michigan

Republican Gov. Rick Snyder was re-elected with 50% of the vote in 2014. He is term-limited. Attorney General Bill Schuette will be the republican nominee. U.S. Reps. Debbie Dingell and Dan Kildee are contesting the democratic nomination. Holding an open seat in a blue state will be tough for the republican party, but they definitely shouldn't be counted out. Lean D

Minnesota

Republican Gov. Norm Coleman was elected with 49.8% of the vote in 2014. State Attorney General Lori Swanson will be the democratic nominee. Pure Toss-Up

Nebraska

Republican Gov. Pete Ricketts was elected with 57.5% of the vote in 2014. His approval ratings are consistently below 50% and Democrats have recruited Fmr. U.S. Rep. Brad Ashford into the race. However, Nebraska remains a deeply republican state and it would take a wave to actually flip this one. Likely R

Nevada

Former Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval was re-elected with 70% of the vote in 2014. Sandoval has become a Supreme Court Justice, so Lt. Gov. Mark Hutchinson is now the incumbent governor. While  Hutchinson is a moderate like Sandoval, he does not have quite as much natural popularity as Sandoval did. Former Secretary of State Ross Miller will be challenging him and has a solid chance of victory. Lean R

New Hampshire

Republican Gov. Jeb Bradley was re-elected with 50.2% of the vote in 2016. City Councilor Stefany Shaheen and Executive Councilor Chris Pappas are contesting the democratic nomination. Pure Toss-Up

New Mexico

Republican Gov. Heather Wilson was elected with 53.7% of the vote in 2014. Attorney General Hector Balderas and Mayor Javier Gonzales are contesting the democratic nomination. Tilt R

New York

Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo was re-elected with 53.4% of the vote in 2014. He is running for a third term, much to the disappointment of the U.S. Election Atlas Forum. State democrats aren't giving the conservadem a break either, running three challengers to Cuomo in the democratic primary - Mayors Stephanie Miner and Byron Brown, along with 2014 candidate Zephyr Teachout. Republicans have coalesced around Fmr. U.S. Rep. Chris Gibson. With the potential for a very damaged democratic nominee, nothing is certain for the party in this state. Likely D

Ohio

Republican Gov. John Kasich was re-elected with 51.4% of the vote in 2014. He is term-limited. Republicans have coalesced around Sec. of State John Husted while the Democrats have coalesced around U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan. Pure Toss-Up

Oklahoma

Republican Gov. Mary Fallin was re-elected with 57.2% of the vote in 2014. She is term-limited. Lt. Gov. Todd Lamb and State Treasurer Ken Miller are contesting the republican nomination. Democrats are hopeless in this deeply republican state. Safe R

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

2018 Gubernatorial Elections Outlook

Oregon

Republican Gov. Greg Walden was elected with 50% of the vote in 2014. State House Speaker Tina Kotek will be the democratic nominee. Pure Toss-Up

Pennsylvania

Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf was elected with 57.4% of the vote in 2014. Fmr. U.S. Rep. Jim Gerlach will challenge him in the general. Tilt D

Rhode Island

Democratic Gov. Gina Raimondo was elected with 39.8% of the vote in 2014. She has since grown popular among the state's voters and is safe for another term. Safe D

South Carolina

Republican Gov. Nikki Haley was re-elected with 53.7% of the vote in 2014 and is term-limited. Lt. Gov. Henry McMaster, U.S. Rep. Mick Mulvaney, and State Sen. Tom Davis are contesting the republican nomination. State Senator Gerald Malloy will be the democratic nominee and begins as a  significant underdog Likely R

South Dakota

Republican Gov. Dennis Daugaard was re-elected with 64% of the vote in 2014 and is term-limited. State Attorney General Marty Jackey and State Rep. Mark Mickelson are contesting the republican nomination. Democrats have scored a major recruiting win with the entrance of Fmr. U.S. Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin into the race, but she starts out as an underdog in this typically republican state. Lean R

Tennessee

Republican Gov. Bill Haslam was re-elected with 65.7% of the vote in 2014 and is also term-limited. Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey, 2014 Senate candidate Joe Carr, and U.S. Rep. Marsha Blackburn are contesting the republican nomination. Mayor Andy Berke and Former Mayor Bill Purcell are contesting the democratic nomination. Rate this Safe R with Ramsey, Likely R with Blackburn, Lean R with Carr

Texas

Republican Gov. Greg Abbott was elected with 57.9% of the vote in 2014. He is safe for another term. Safe R

Vermont

Democratic Gov. Peter Shumlin was re-elected with 51.4% of the vote in 2016. The big test for his controversial governorship has finally arrived - Republicans have finally convinced Lt. Gov. Phil Scott to be their nominee. This will be one of the most exciting races of the cycle. Tilt R

Wisconsin

Republican Gov. Scott Walker was re-elected with 52.4% of the vote in 2014. He is running for a third term. Winning is crucial - if he loses, any hopes of a successful run for president in 2020 will be completely dead. This time, State Rep. Chris Taylor will be the democratic nominee. Walker starts out with a significant but insecure polling lead. Lean R

Wyoming

Republican Gov. Matt Mead was re-elected with 63.7% of the vote in 2014 and is also term-limited. There's no excitement here - Republicans have coalesced around State Attorney General Peter Michael and Democrats have no one who can win in this deeply republican state. Safe R

------------

Current Gubernatorial Status:

34 Republicans
15 Democrats
1 Independent

Total Democratic Seats up for Election: 9
Total Republican Seats up for Election: 26
Total Independent Seats up for Election: 1

Holdover Seats:

8 Republicans
6 Democrats
0 Independents

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

January 15, 2018 - Johnny Isakson retiring at the end of the current congress

Citing his steadily worsening Parkinson's disease, Senator Isakson believes he will soon be unable to represent the people of Georgia to the extent that they rightfully deserve, and has decided to resign when the current session of congress ends on January 2, 2019. The popular senator from Georgia, known for helping in the creation of the 2015 tax reform deal and enjoying support from such figures as Former Democratic Gov. Roy Barnes, will be dearly missed by many members of congress.

The primaries for the special election to replace him will be held on June 26, with the general held concurrently with the Nov. 6 Gubernatorial election. Democratic Strategists consider the seat to be a major pickup opportunity.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Year 1 of the Schweitzer Presidency - Looking Back and an Update on Foreign Affairs

1 year into Schweitzer's term as President, America is back where it was after 9/11, entrenched in full-fledged war. It turned out that the 2015 attack was not from the remnants of Al Qaeda or ISIS, but another terrorist organization entirely, which keeps its name a complete secret. Their forces have proved to be somewhat stronger than expected, but the U.S. Military remains confident of victory, though it is unclear how long that victory will take. Afghanistan and Iran themselves have provided little aid, with certain Iran politicians even slightly sympathetic to the terrorist cause. This has left certain republicans to point to Former President Rick Santorum and say his continuous calls during his presidency to send troops to permantely occupy Iran were right, and Democrats' direct condemnation of that idea seems to be lessening slightly.  As the war has continued, there have been limited calls to reinstate the draft, but with Schweitzer pledging to veto any such bill, it has had no impact whatsoever.

Outside of the war, Schweitzer has generally removed liberals' fears of his devotion to democratic caucuses and has gained praise for the cordial, immersed-in-negotiations relation he has established with the republican controlled congress, a strong contrast to Santorum's tendencies to sit in a back room, let deals be worked out in his absence, then sign them to make himself look moderate. His successful push to reinstate ObamaCare, remove the small rich tax cut passed under Santorum, and keep the SCOTUS in favor of pro-choice policies have largely pleased the democratic base, who while wanting someone more left-wing, is at least glad to have a president who can implement some democratic policies with a republican controlled congress, something Obama was never able to do before he lost reelection in 2012. Schweitzer also polls well among political independents and some more liberal republicans. His Approval rating stands at 56-41, and in a separate question asking who voters would choose in a redo of 2016, Schweitzer gets 52 percent to Santorum's 43 percent, a margin 5 points wider than the 51 to 47 percent margin Schweitzer actually won by in 2016.

It will be difficult to pass any domestic policy this year with the upcoming midterm elections, but Schweitzer has voiced interest in increasing the minimum wage to $11 over several years, returning Defense/Veterans' Affairs to two separate departments rather than one combined department (along with Energy/EPA), and to the ire of some liberals, increasing offshore drilling to eliminate any and all need for fossil fuel imports from the middle east.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

February 2018

A proposal to re-separate Defense and Veterans' affairs passes the Senate 63-36 and passes the house 240-195, and is quickly signed by Schweitzer. Wesley Clark is retained as Defense Secretary, but Schweitzer infuriates conservatives when he appoints Corrine Brown, the ranking member of the house veterans' affairs committee, to be Chair of Veterans' Affairs. (Brown occupies a Safe D district and Democrats will easily hold the seat) The nomination narrowly surpasses a filibuster on a 62-38 Senate vote but does some damage to Schweitzer's moderate credentials.

March 2018

A proposal to re-separate Energy and EPA passes the Senate 60-40, but fails in the house 210-225, leading some analysts to wonder if the Brown appointment took away all of Schweitzer's ability to get his policies through the republican congress, especially with the minimum wage proposal being DOA. The balanced budget amendment passed through congress under Santorum finally passes the legislatures of PA and NH, bringing the total up to 34. Standard and Poor states that it will restore the U.S's credit rating to AAA if the amendment passes through the remaining 4 states it needs for ratification, provided that the pattern of governing by crisis that existed under Obama does not return.

Finally, a Louisiana District court rules in favor of a federal lawsuit arguing that Obergefell vs. Hodges should be overturned due to a study (largely viewed skeptically by scientific experts) showing that Same Sex Marriage has negatively impacted the welfare of children and resulted in straight couples viewing the union of marriage in a negative, cynical matter . The lawsuit argues that this meets the rational basis criteria for discrimination (the criteria that was used for Obergefell in this universe), and therefore should overturn Obergefell. The fact that the lawsuit made it through this district court isn't particularly surprising, as this is one of the few courts that ruled in favor of traditional marriage post-windsor. It now goes to the fifth circuit court of appeals, which ruled in favor of traditional marriage post-windsor in this universe but could appoint a panel who will not look so fondly on this case.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

March 2018 Continued

The primaries for the upcoming Senate and Gubernatorial elections begin with the state of Texas. Ted Cruz faces a quixotic establishment challenge from Fmr. Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst (who lost his primary to Dan Patrick in 2014) that he easily beats back, 65-32 with some gadflys taking the rest. Democrats recruit State Sen. Kirk Watson as their sacrificial lamb. On the governors' side, Greg Abbott is renominated unopposed and democrats again punt on the race, renominating 2014 nominee Wendy Davis. Later in the month, the Illinois primaries are a quiet affair - Rodney Davis comfortably beats back the traditional Tea Party challenge, and Dillard and Madigan win the gubernatorial primaries unopposed.

April 2018

With the retirement of Mayor Vincent Gray, Councilman Tommy Wells wins the democratic nomination for D.C. Mayor with a 39% plurality in a crowded field, tatamount to election in the very democratic jurisdiction. The House passes a large expansion of offshore drilling 280-154, but it falters in the Senate as democrats are divided between loyalty to Schweitzer and a desire to not give Big Oil any favors. The proposal falls 2 votes short of clearing a filibuster led by Sens. Warren and Heinrich, and Donnelly surprisingly votes 'present' instead of supporting the bill, giving whoever ends up as his challenger a fresh attack line in what was already a very tough seat for the democratic party to hold.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

May 2018

This month's primaries begin in Indiana, with Greg Ballard defeating Luke Messer for the republican senate nomination by only 2%. Donnelly is renominated unopposed. In Ohio, things are very calm, with Brown and DeWine being nominated for the Senate against only token opposition, and the same applying to Husted and Tim Ryan in the Governor's race. Later in the month, Manchin and McKinley are nominated for the Senate easily in West Virginia. In Nebraska, Pete Ricketts receives a late challenge when Fmr. U.S. Rep. Lee Terry tries to make a political comeback. He gains fire in the closing weeks, but Ricketts still prevails 55-44. Ashford wins the democratic nomination unopposed.

Arkansas primaries see an easy renomination win for Asa Hutchinson. Democrats do about as well as they can in the sacrificial lamb department, nominating 2014 AR-2 Nominee Pat Hays (who lost by about the same margin as in RL in this universe), but they are still expected to lose the race heavily. Democrats again punt on the Idaho Governor's race, nominating two-time Senate loser Nels Mitchell to face Lt. Gov. Brad Little. Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Georgia primaries are a quiet affair - Cagle (R) and Reed (D) win their gubernatorial nominations easily in Georgia (the special senate primary isn't until June) with Walden (R) and Kotek (D) easily being nominated for Oregon Governor. Casey (D) and Fitzpatrick (R) are nominated unopposed for Pennsylvania Senate with Wolf (D) and Gerlach (R) winning their gubernatorial nominations over token opposition.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

June 2018

A disaster for California Democrats! While Kamala Harris (D) and Darrell Issa (R) are the top two in the six-way senate primary (Ashley Swearingin placed third, and below her is, in order of placement, Loretta Sanchez, Neel Kashkari, and Antonio Villiagrosa), the seven-way gubernatorial primary  produces a top two of Kevin Faucloner (R) and David Dreier (R) (placing below them are five democrats. In order of placement, they are Gavin Newsom, Alex Padilla, Scott Peters, Steve Westly, and Tom Steyer), meaning that California will have a republican governor in January 2019.

In Alabama, there is a general feeling of "WTF?" among the state republican party when Justice Roy Moore wins the republican gubernatorial nomination with a 26% plurality in a very crowded field on a platform of passing a ban on homosexual sex, which would nullify the Supreme Court's Lawrence v. Texas ruling from 2003. He says Schweitzer calling in the national guard to enforce the 2003 ruling is the only thing that would stop him from enforcing the ban and throwing offenders in jail. Democrats nominated State Sen. Billy Beasley, who was intended to be a sacrificial lamb, but could end up winning, considering that some state republican leaders are reportedly reluctant to unify around Mr. Moore. It is expected that the libertarian party will do unusually well in the general, with some early estimates placing their numbers at 8-10%.

Over in Iowa, there is less drama. Both parties get good nominees, with Agriculture Commissioner Bill Northey winning the republican nomination and State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald winning the democratic nomination. Neither clears 50% in their primary, but both win by fairly comfortable margins.

Back to south, to Mississippi. Roger Wicker is renominated 54-45 over Chris McDaniel, who is unable to generate the same kind of energy he had in his 2014 challenge to Thad Cochran. Still, someone needs to figure out how to satisfy the mississippi tea party enough before they find a challenger who can actually beat an incumbent Senator and then become the next Richard Mourdock. Vicki Slater is nominated unopposed on the democratic side.

In Montana, Tester and Rehberg are nominated unopposed for the Senate. LoBiondo and Pallone are nominated unopposed for New Jersey Senate. Democrats select Hector Balderas as their nominee against Wilson for New Mexico Governor, and Heinrich and Sanchez win the senate nominations over token opposition. Herseth-Sandlin wins the South Dakota Democratic Gubernatorial nomination, while State Attorney General Marty Jackey wins the Republican primary 53-47 over State Rep. Mark Mickelson.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

June 2018 Continued

In the Maine primaries, Gov. Michaud receives a challenge from State Attorney General Janet Mill, who argues that she has a better chance of defeating Susan Collins in the general. Michaud escapes the primary 53-47, but enters the general damaged. Collins nominated unopposed. On the senate side of things, Democrats are annoyed when 2014 Senate Nominee Shenna Bellows enters the race on a message of replacing Angus King with a "real democrat". Bellows wins the democratic nomination easily as King had already committed to running on the independent line. LePage nominated unopposed for the republicans. Bellows's presence in the race is considered a net plus to LePage's chances of victory.

In North Dakota, Rick Berg is renominated unopposed. The democratic sacrificial lamb of choice is U.S. Attorney Tim Purdon.

In Nevada, Hutchinson and Miller are nominated unopposed for Governor, and the same for Horsford and Heller on the Senate side. In South Carolina, McMaster and Mulvaney advance to a runoff for the republican gubernatorial nomination and Gerald Malloy is nominated unopposed for the democrats. In Virginia, Tim Kaine is renominated unopposed. Randy Forbes wins the republican nomination with a 44% plurality over McWaters, Cantor, and Reeves (ordered based on placement).

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

June 2018 Continued

In the Maryland gubernatorial primary, Heather Mizeur wins the democratic nomination 53-47 after a powerful negative campaign on Rawlings-Blake's record as mayor of Baltimore. Larry Hogan renominated over token opposition.

Salazar and Gessler easily win Colorado's gubernatorial primaries. In the New York U.S. House primaries, the Tea Party finally succeeds in primarying Richard Hanna (the seat remains Safe R for the general) (the other NY primaries are held in September). Over in Oklahoma, republicans nominate Lt. Gov. Todd Lamb for governor while the democrats choose Former Mayor Susan Savage as their sacrificial lamb. McMaster wins the runoff for the SC republican gubernatorial nomination.

In Utah, Mia Love wins the republican senate nomination handily, getting 46 percent to Mike Leavitt's 35 percent, with only 19 percent supporting Fmr. Sen. Mike Lee's surprise attempt to return to politics. Democrats nominate their 2012 gubernatorial nominee, Scott Howell. And finally, in the Georgia special senate primary, U.S. Rep. Jack Kingston is nominated, narrowly clearing the runoff hurdle with 51% of the vote. 36% goes to U.S. Rep. Tom Price, with Fmr. U.S. Rep. Paul Broun taking 11% and Perennial Candidate Derrick Grayson taking 2%. Democrats find a great recruit here, as State Rep. Scott Holcomb wins their nomination over token opposition.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Summer/Fall 2018 Domestic Matters

Towards the end of July, Schweitzer and McCarthy announce they have reached a grand bargain for the yearly budget. Schweitzer will get the reseparation of Energy and EPA that he wanted (and a modest spending increase in such areas), an increase in the minimum wage to $11 over five years, and a reversal of the education cuts that Santorum signed in 2013. This is tied to means testing social security and the passage of a separate bill that makes abortion illegal nationwide during the last 10 weeks of the pregnancy unless it is to save the mother's life. Under the agreement, Al Gore will be kept on as EPA secretary, and Schweitzer agrees that his nomination for Energy secretary will require 70 votes for senate confirmation (instead of the usual 60).

As expected, liberals strongly criticize the abortion component, and many declare that the agreement will recieve 0 democratic votes in the senate and also be rejected by Gordon Smith (R-OR), Greg Orman (I/R-KS), Susan Collins (R-ME), and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK). For the first time since Obama's presidency, Congress goes on August Recess without a budget for the next year passed. Schweitzer spends the month on a fierce campaign for the deal, and the cause against it backfires when a pro-choice group pays for PPP to poll on the issue, and those sampled favor the deal 62-29. On a separate question asking whether the public supports late term abortion bans in general, the numbers are 63-35 in favor of such bans. Liberals spend the month realizing that many of their constituents love the idea of banning abortion after 30 weeks even without the rest of the deal, and conservatives find that the abortion component makes their base not care about the domestic spending and minimum wage increases in the deal. Congress comes back ready to pass the deal. After a few days of debate, the deal is passed on September 11th, 283-152 in the house and 66-34 in the Senate. Schweitzer signs it. Soon after, he announces that his appointment for Energy Secretary is Former Colorado Governor Bill Ritter. The fairly noncontroversial appointment is confirmed 74-25.

[AussieLaborite]

Very Good Tl Keep it up.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

August 2018

In the Kansas primaries, Yoder and Davis are nominated for Governor over token opposition. In Michigan, Stabenow and Amash are nominated for the Senate unopposed. Dan Kildee wins the democratic nomination for governor 53-44 over Debbie Dingell. Schuette is nominated over token opposition in the republican gubernatorial primary. For Missouri Senate, Kander and Steelman are nominated unopposed, and the same for Cantwell in Washington state. Fmr. State Rep. Chris Vance is the republican sacrificial lamb for Washington Senate.

In Tennessee, Corker is renominated unopposed, and democrats choose Mayor Karl Dean for their sacrificial lamb. For Governor, Marsha Blackburn wins the republican nomination while the Democratic nomination goes to Former Mayor Bill Purcell. In Hawaii, Hirono wins the democratic senate nomination unopposed, and perennial candidate Marissa Capelouto is nominated for the republicans.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

August 2018 Continued

In Connecticut, George Jepsen wins the democratic gubernatorial nomination while Shays is renominated unopposed. Larry Kudlow is the republican sacrificial lamb to challenge Chris Murphy. In Minnesota, Swanson and Coleman win the gubernatorial primaries easily. Republicans manage to recruit Marty Seifert as their challenger to Sen. Tim Walz. With Seifert, Walz clearly won't be landsliding, but Republicans still remain at long odds in terms of actually winning the race. In Wisconsin, Kind and Thompson easily win the senate primaries, and the same for Walker and Taylor on the gubernatorial side.

In Alaska, John Harris wins the republican nomination to challenge Gov. Bill Walker (I), with 41% of the vote to 39% for 2014 Senate Candidate Dan Sullivan and 20% for Joe Miller. This is the 2nd time Sullivan has lost a primary in four years (Treadwell challenged Begich in 2014 in this universe (and lost)). The Democrats manage to keep their primary empty of even gadflys and wholeheartedly endorse Walker. In Wyoming, Peter Michael easily wins the republican gubernatorial nomination, while Democrats manage to recruit absolutely no one. Michael will only be opposed by a libertarian candidate in the General. John Barrasso is easily renominated for the Senate, and will face psychiatrist Chris Zachary (D) in the general.

In Arizona, Sinema and Flake easily win the senate primaries, and the same for Kirkpatrick and Ducey on the republican side. In Florida, Atwater wins the republican gubernatorial nomination. Nelson renominated unopposed. Wexler and Bondi easily win the senate primaries. In Vermont, Sanders ends up completely unopposed, remarkable seeing as how he actually lost the state's primary during his 2016 presidential run. Shumlin and Scott easily win the gubernatorial primaries.

Finally, LGBT supporters everywhere breathe a collective sigh of relief when the fifth circuit reverses the finding of the Louisiana District Court on the gay marriage "study". A three judge panel rules 2-1 that the study is a "shoddy piece of work that was designed from the start to show the results the designers wanted (that straight parents are better than gay parents))." The ruling says that while the panel is unsure of the exact level of validity of the claim that straight couples view marriage cynically nowadays, "opinions alone are not enough to make a law constitutional".

However, the fifth circuit quickly agrees to rehear the case en banc (hold a rehearing of the case with all of the circuit's judges, rather than just a panel of three), so those hoping to re-prohibit same sex marriage aren't out of luck just yet.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

September 2018

In Delaware, Carper is renominated unopposed and republicans use perennial candidate Kevin Wade for their sacrificial lamb. In Massachusetts, Brown and Keating win the gubernatorial nominations over token opposition. Warren wins Senate renomination unopposed, and 2013 MA-5 Special Nominee Frank Addivinola is selected as the republican sacrificial lamb. In New Hampshire, Bradley and Pappas easily win the gubernatorial nominations. In Rhode Island, Republicans nominate their 2014 candidate Allan Fung for Governor, but with Raimondo's approvals in the low to mid fifties, it is unlikely Fung can even force a close race this time around. Republicans select their 2014 Senate Candidate, Mark Zaccaria, as their sacrificial lamb to face Sen. Whitehouse.  In the New York Senate primaries, Gillibrand and Bloomberg win the nominations easily. Chris Gibson wins the republican gubernatorial primary over token opposition.

However, in the Democratic Gubernatorial Primary, the Atlas Forum rejoices as Andrew Cuomo goes down to defeat! Even more embarrassing, the candidate who defeats him is not one of the two mayors in the race, but is instead Zephyr Teachout! Teachout wins with just 30% of the vote, with Stephanie Miner at 28%, Cuomo in third at 24%, and Byron Brown with 18%. The state Democratic party is completely shocked at the result, and it is unclear if they are willing to give Teachout their full backing. Complicating the race is the fact that Howie Hawkins is again running as the green nominee, and he can get significantly more than the 5% he got in 2014 if Teachout is unable to really unite Democrats behind her. With the strongest Republican nominee since the days of Pataki in Chris Gibson, this race will definitely be one to watch.

[Free Bird]

And Atlas forgives all of Wulfric's sins

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Brian Schweitzer approval rating - September 14, 2018:

Approve: 55%
Disapprove: 42%

In a re-run of the 2016 election, who would you vote for?

Schweitzer: 51%
Santorum: 43%


September 2018 - Senate Race Polling

Fundamentals: Turnout is expected to be around 40%, and likely voters appear to more or less like the status quo of each side achieving some of its goals. Those who turnout are expected to approve by Schweitzer by a lesser margin than the country at large, and will be disproportionately white, which should help republicans. Prognosticators expect a neutral year with only a small net gain in either direction.

Safe R:

TX - Sen. Ted Cruz (R) vs State Sen. Kirk Watson (D)
MS - Sen. Roger Wicker (R) vs. Attorney Vicki Slater (D)
TN - Sen. Bob Corker (R) vs. Mayor Karl Dean (D)
UT - U.S. Rep. Mia Love (R) vs. 2012 Gubernatorial Nominee Scott Powell (D)
NE - Sen. Deb Fischer (R) vs. 2014 Gubernatorial Nominee Chuck Hassebrook (D)
WY - Sen. John Barrasso (R) vs. Psychiatrist Chris Zachary (D)
ND - Sen. Rick Berg (R) vs. U.S. Attorney Tim Purdon (D)

Likely R: None

Lean R:

GA Special - U.S. Rep. Jack Kingston (R) vs. State Rep. Scott Holcomb (D)

Polling: Kingston 48-42

IN - Mayor Greg Ballard (R) vs. Sen. Joe Donnelly (D)

Polling: Ballard 49-43

MO - Sen. Sarah Steelman (R) vs. Secretary of State Jason Kander (D)

Polling: Steelman 48-43

Toss-Up

NV - Sen. Dean Heller (R) vs. Fmr. U.S. Rep. Steven Horsford (D)

Polling: Horsford 47-46

AZ - Sen. Jeff Flake (R) vs. U.S. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D)

Polling: Flake 47-44

MT - Sen. Denny Rehberg (R) vs. Fmr. Sen. Jon Tester (D)

Polling: Tester 46-45

WI - Sen. Tommy Thompson (R) vs. U.S. Rep. Ron Kind (D)

Polling: Thompson 46-44

FL - Attorney General Pam Bondi (R) vs. Sen. Robert Wexler (D)

Polling: Bondi 46-45

VA - U.S. Rep. Randy Forbes (R) vs. Sen. Tim Kaine (D)

Polling: Forbes 46-45

OH - Attorney General Mike DeWine (R) vs. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D)

Polling: 46-46 tie

PA - Fmr. U.S. Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R) vs. Sen. Bob Casey (D)

Polling: Casey 47-45

NJ - Sen. Frank LoBiondo (R) vs. U.S. Rep. Frank Pallone (D)

Polling: Pallone 47-44

Lean D

WV - U.S. Rep. David McKinley (R) vs. Sen. Joe Manchin (D)

Polling: Manchin 49-44

MI - U.S. Rep. Justin Amash (R) vs. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D)

Polling: Stabenow 50-43

Likely D

NM - Fmr. Lt. Gov. John Sanchez (R) vs. Sen. Martin Heinrich (D)

Polling: Heinrich 52-41

MN - Fmr. State Rep. Marty Seifert (R) vs. Sen. Tim Walz (D)

Polling: Walz 51-40

NY - Fmr. Mayor Michael Bloomberg (R) vs. Sen. Jerrold Nadler (D)

Polling: Nadler 51-41

Safe D

HI - Perennial Candidate Marissa Capelouto (R) vs. Sen. Mazie Hirono (D)
CA - U.S. Rep. Darrell Issa (R) vs. Attorney General Kamala Harris (D)
WA - Fmr. State Rep. Chris Vance (R) vs. Sen. Maria Cantwell (D)
MD - Attorney Richard Douglas (R) vs. Sen. Ben Cardin (D)
DE - Perennial Candidate Kevin Wade (R) vs. Sen. Tom Carper (D)
CT - CNBC Host Larry Kudlow (R) vs. Sen. Chris Murphy (D)
RI - 2014 Senate Nominee Mark Zaccaria (R) vs. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D)
MA - 2013 MA-5 Nominee Frank Addinvola (R) vs. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D)

Likely I

ME - Sen. Angus King (I) vs. Fmr. Gov. Paul LePage (R) vs. 2014 Senate Nominee Shenna Bellows (D)

Polling:

King: 43%
LePage: 33%
Bellows: 15%

Safe I

VT - Sen. Bernie Sanders (I) unopposed

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

September 2018 - Gubernatorial Race Polling

Fundamentals: With most governors having only modest popularity, the year is set for a lot of turnover. The Democrats have an advantage nationwide solely due to Republicans having more governors up for election - many of the seats that democrats do have are hardly guaranteed to stay with them, and they will lose at least one of them - CA, where two republicans got out of the jungle primary. ME is also highly likely to flip with Susan Collins as the R nominee, and Paul Davis will have a tough time surviving in KS. Democrats need a net gain of 11 seats - 10 if Walker holds on in Alaska - to have more seats than the republicans. This is considered to be highly unlikely to occur.

Safe R

CA: 2016 Senate Nominee Kevin Faulconer (R) vs. Fmr. U.S. Rep. David Dreier (R)

Polls: 47-43 Faulconer

ID: 2016 Senate Nominee Nels Mitchell (D) vs. Gov. Butch Otter (R)
WY: State Attorney General Peter Michael (R) unopposed
TX: 2014 Nominee Wendy Davis (D) vs. Gov. Greg Abbott (R)
OK: Former Mayor Susan Savage (D) vs. Lt. Gov. Todd Lamb (R)
AR: 2014 AR-2 Nominee Pat Hays (D) vs. Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R)
TN: Former Mayor Bill Purcell (D) vs. U.S. Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R)
MA: Fmr. U.S. Rep. Bill Keating (D) vs. Gov. Scott Brown (R)

Likely R

NE: Fmr. U.S. Rep. Brad Ashford (D) vs. Gov. Pete Ricketts (R)

Polls: 52-41 Ricketts

IL: State Attorney General Lisa Madigan (D) vs. Gov. Kirk Dillard (R)

Polls: 52-40 Dillard

SC: State Sen. Gerald Malloy (D) vs. Lt. Gov. Henry McMaster (R)

Polls: 51-40 McMaster

ME: Gov. Mike Michaud (D) vs. Sen. Susan Collins (R)

Polls: 53-41 Collins

Lean R


NV: Fmr. Sec. of State Ross Miller (D) vs. Gov. Mark Hutchinson (R)

Polls: 49-42 Hutchinson

AZ: U.S. Rep. Ann KirkPatrick (D) vs. Gov. Doug Ducey (R)

Polls: 47-42 Ducey

SD: Fmr. U.S. Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) vs. State Attorney General Marty Jackey (R)

Polls: 47-41 Jackey

AL: State Sen. Billy Beasley (D) vs. Justice Roy Moore (R)

Polls: 48-40 Moore

Toss-Up

AK: Gov. Bill Walker (I) vs. State Rep. John Harris (R)

Polls: 47-45 Harris

OR: State House Speaker Tina Kotek (D) vs. Gov. Greg Walden (R)

Polls: 46-46 tie

NM: State Attorney General Hector Balderas (D) vs. Gov. Heather Wilson (R)

Polls: 46-45 Wilson

CO: Fmr. Sen. Ken Salazar (D) vs. Gov. Scott Gessler (R)

Polls: 46-45 Gessler

KS: Gov. Paul Davis (D) vs. U.S. Rep. Kevin Yoder (R)

Polls: 48-44 Yoder

MN: State Attorney General Lori Swanson (D) vs. Gov. Norm Coleman (R)

Polls: 45-45 tie

WI: State Rep. Chris Taylor (D) vs. Gov. Scott Walker (R)

Polls: 46-44 Taylor

IA: State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald (D) vs. Agriculture Commissioner Bill Northey (R)

Polls: 46-45 Fitzgerald

GA: Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed (D) vs. Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle (R)

Polls: 48-45 Cagle

FL: Gov. Bill Nelson (D) vs. Chief Financial Officer Jeff Atwater (R)

Polls: 47-44 Nelson

OH: U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan (D) vs. Secretary of State Jon Husted (R)

Polls: 46-45 Ryan

PA: Gov. Tom Wolf (D) vs. U.S. Rep. Jim Gerlach (R)

Polls: 46-44 Wolf

CT: Attorney General George Jepsen (D) vs. Gov. Chris Shays (R)

Polls: 45-45 tie

VT: Gov. Peter Shumlin (D) vs. Lt. Gov. Phil Scott (R)

Polls: 45-44 Scott

NH: Executive Councilor Chris Pappas (D) vs. Gov. Jeb Bradley (R)

Polls: 46-45 Bradley

Lean D

MI: U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee (D) vs. State Attorney General Bill Schuette (R)

Polls: 47-41 Kildee

MD: Fmr. State Delegate Heather Mizeur (D) vs. Gov. Larry Hogan (R)

Polls: 48-41 Mizeur

NY: Law Professor Zephyr Teachout (D) vs. Fmr. U.S. Rep. Chris Gibson (R) vs. 2014 Nominee Howie Hawkins (G)

Polls:

Teachout 44
Gibson 37
Hawkins 11

Likely D

HI: Gov. David Ige (D) vs. Fmr. U.S. Rep. Charles Djou (R)

Polls: Ige 51-40

Safe D

RI: Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) vs. 2014 Nominee Allan Fung (R)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

October 2018

The balanced budget amendment passes the NM legislature. It must pass through 3 of the following states to complete the ratification process:

HI
CA
OR
WA
MN
IL
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
NY
VT
ME

As the month progresses, the Missouri and Georgia senate races look better and better for Democrats, but Indiana and West Virginia trend against them. Neither party seems to be able to get a definite advantage in any of the Toss-Up Senate Races, and the gubernatorial map is largely static. This really looks like an election where turnout will be everything, and where either party is perfectly capable of having a good night.


Next : Election Night 2018