The Democratic Revival???

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

2018 Elections - Live Coverage

It's Election Night in the midterm where Democrats may have fixed their turnout problem



Schweitzer: This year is going our way! We're taking back the Senate!

Crucial Senate Races are heading down to the wire



Casey: Representative Fitzpatrick, you're nothing but a closet partisan!



Forbes: Kaine isn't for Virginia values, he's for lobbyist values!

Key GOP Governors could be defeated



Taylor: Walker's had 8 years to restore the economy of Wisconsin, and he hasn't done it! Let's try a different direction!



Madigan: Dillard, you're nothing but an obstructionist to the policies Illinois needs!

And Alabama could elect one of the most extreme republicans in the country as its governor



Moore: It'll take the national guard to keep homosexuality legal when I'm governor!

This is CNN

-----------

Wolf: "Hello, I'm Wolf Blitzer. The polls have just closed in parts of Indiana and Kentucky, but in the rest of the country, the polls are still open. There's a crucial senate race going on in Indiana. Will Democrat Joe Donnelly defy the polls and keep his seat, or will Republican Greg Ballard take the seat? We'll be watching closely. Let's go to John King for a look at the Democratic path to taking the Senate."

King: "The Democrats have a tough path to taking back the senate tonight, and it is not really expected to occur. Step 1 is to hold all of their own seats, perhaps with the exception of Indiana. This will be tough - there are close contests in Florida, Ohio, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Then the Democrats will need to sweep Nevada, Montana, Wisconsin, and New Jersey. No room for error there. Then they need to take one of Arizona, Missouri, and Georgia - 2 if they lose Indiana. It's a tough path to follow, so most analysts do expect the republicans to keep the senate, and republicans could even get a net gain."

"Let's take a look at some of the exit polling out of Indiana. First, Brian Schweitzer's approval rating in the State - 42%. That's about the same as the % of votes he got in Indiana in 2016. That could really hurt Donnelly. Second, take a look at this. Do you consider Donnelly to be:

Most concerned with the interests of Indiana - 46%
Most concerned with those interests of the Democratic party that conflict with Indiana's interests - 50%

So, an advantage for Ballard there on a key issue in this election. Another warning sign for Donnelly - his approvals are 47% here. That suggests he's not going to win reelection. Now, be cautious, some polls are still open in the state and we will have to look at the real vote numbers and see what has occurred. But this exit poll is troubling for him."

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

2018 Elections - Live Coverage

King: "Welcome back to CNN's live coverage of election night 2018. At the top of the hour, in 20 minutes, we'll have our first projections, but let's look at the early results in Indiana:

2% in:

Ballard 52%
Donnelly 46%



"So, this county map, it's kind of bleak. Not much in. So far, everything looking as normal. Ballard doing well where he needs to, and Donnelly as well. More important counties will come in later. Wolf?"

Wolf: "Let's talk briefly with the Democratic Candidate for Alabama Governor, State Senator Billy Beasley, at his headquarters in Montgomery, AL. Mr. Beasley, how do you feel about your chances tonight?"

Beasley: "I think I have a credible chance at victory. Moore has clearly advocated that he is just too conservative, even for Alabama. We've seen great turnout in our key areas, I think Moore is going to lose some key republican counties, and there will finally be a big dent in the strength of the republican party in Alabama."

Wolf: "Our Final poll, released today, shows Moore leading 52-45. Do those numbers worry you?"

Beasley: "Our internals have always had the race much closer than the public polling, and we believe the race is a statistical tie. But the enthusiasm is with not only the Alabama democratic party, but the independents, the disaffected republicans, who have been supporting my effort in droves. Alabama may not be as deeply republican as we're all led to believe."

Wolf: "Do you expect this race to be settled tonight or will this be litigated?"

Beasley: "I don't know. We'd love it if we got a significant victory tonight. But we're expecting a very close race, and if we have to fight for another 3 weeks to bring fair, moderate governance to Alabama, we're ready to do that."

Wolf: "Do you think that your performance, which will at least be better than typical democratic performance in Alabama, will be because of Mr. Moore as an individual or because Alabama is becoming a battleground state?"

Beasley: "I would hope it's the latter. We know Mr. Moore gave the republicans serious pause and caused them to look to my candidacy, and we hope this opportunity has caused people to see that the Democratic party can be in tune with Alabama, and that this will be the beginning of a era of more competitive races in Alabama. Us becoming like Ohio probably isn't realistic, but if we could even start voting like Missouri, electing Democrats from time to time in select major races, that would be a huge accomplishment."

Wolf: "All right. Good luck tonight."

Next: First poll closings

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

2018 Elections - Live Coverage



Wolf: "We've just had our first poll closings. Looking at the Senate, Bernie Sanders wins in Vermont due to the fact that he ran unopposed:

Vermont Senate (Final Results):

Sanders(I): 100%

We cannot make projections yet in Indiana, Georgia, and Virginia:

Indiana Senate (4% in):

Ballard (R): 52%
Donnelly (D): 46%
Others: 2%

Georgia Senate (1% in):

Kingston (R): 65%
Holcomb (D): 33%
Others: 2%

Virginia Senate (1% in):

Forbes (R): 54%
Kaine (D): 43%
Others: 3%

For the Gubernatorial races, we can project that South Carolina will go to the Republicans.

South Carolina Governor (Final Results):

McMaster (R): 56.8%
Malloy (D): 42%
Others: 1.2%

We cannot make projections yet for Georgia or Vermont:

Georgia Governor (1% in):

Cagle (R): 64%
Reed (D): 34%

Vermont Governor (1% in):

Shumlin (D): 62%
Scott (R): 35%

Senate Map:

Republicans: 40
Democrats: 24
Independents: 3

Governor Map:

Republicans: 9
Democrats: 6

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

2018 Elections - Live Coverage

Wolf: "No big news yet. All of the races we cannot project yet are ones we expected to be close. Let's go to our panel for a discussion of these results. Mr. Gingrich, your reaction to the initial calls?

Gingrich: "Well, it's the beginning of a long night. But I'm confident. I think the republicans will hold everything except New Jersey in the end, and we may make significant pickups. I don't think a filibuster-proof majority is out of the question tonight.

Cooper: "A filibuster-proof majority? With Schweitzer so popular?"

Gingrich: "The Republicans have run great campaigns, we're more competitive than Democrats initially thought we'd be in West Virginia and Michigan, and I just have real confidence in that. Schweitzer can go on and on about how democrats can pick up the Senate, but we know that's a hard path, and I just don't see how they're even going to come close."

Cooper: "Donna Brazile?"

Brazile: "I disagree. I think a popular democrat in the white house means a good night for democrats. In 2014, we had a popular republican, and the republicans did very well. This time, we have a popular democrat, and things should go very differently. Picking up the senate is optimistic, I agree, but I think if we can get it down to 53-47, that counts as a good night. And I think that will happen."

Cooper: "So, the Senate race in Georgia. Any chance of victory for the democrats there?

Crowley: "That's going to be tough for them. For all the hype about Georgia changing, the democrats' strong efforts never seem to yield results. Obama and Martin in 2008, Barnes in 2010, Barnes and Carter in 2014, Schweitzer in 2016, all did a really good job of trying to figure out how to get more of the independent vote, more of the liberal republican vote in Georgia, but they just couldn't do it. And this is a midterm. Whatever the success of Schweitzer's GOTV efforts, it's not going to be presidential-style turnout. Democrats may be able to force a runoff, but winning outright, or winning the runoff, I just don't see that happening. At least not this year.

Cooper: "Dana Bash?

Bash: "I agree, it's tough in Georgia. But Democrats have recruited a great candidate, they're spending as much money there if not more as they are in more winnable states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and I think the results have to come at some point. I don't think it's completely hopeless. Is it an upset if Holcomb wins? Yes. But his victory isn't an impossibility."

Cooper: Let's move on to Indiana. Jay Carney, do you think Donnelly can survive?"

Carney: "While I'd love for him to pull it off, it's just not going to happen. His 2012 win was a result of the republican basically handing the election to him on a silver platter, and Mr. Ballard just hasn't done that. Indiana is just too republican to let Donnelly win on his own merits."

Cooper: "But he's voted against his own party a lot"

Carney: "Yes, and that's why he's going to do much better than the 42 percent or so that just about any democrat gets in the state. But his path to 50% just isn't realistic, especially in a lower-turnout environment."

Wolf: "Thanks for those insights everyone. We'll take a quick break. When we come back, we'll take a look at what's going on in the house of representatives."

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

2018 Elections - Live Coverage

King: "Let's take a look at the races in the house of representatives. Overall, we are expecting relatively little change in the balance of power. We can't project that yet, but no one is expecting either party to have a net gain of more than 5 seats. Which side will have that small gain, though? We can look at a few races to tell us that. First up, New Jersey's 2nd district. Republicans held this seat only 51-48% in 2016, and Democrats are running a far better campaign here now than they did two years ago. However, we do expect Senator LoBiondo to run strong here, and that should help the republicans hold the seat. If the Democrats pick this one up, it's a sign that they will be the slightly dominant side in the house races. But if the night is going the other way, we could see NY-19 flip. Democrats picked up this seat 52-47% in 2016, but without presidential year turnout to help them, it should be closer. Having Gibson, who used to represent this district, as the R governor nominee should also help. Republicans would love to pick this seat up, and if they do so by a significant margin, that's an excellent sign for them.

Now, if only one seat were to flip tonight, it would be up in Michigan, the first district. Democrats picked up this seat by 674 votes in 2016 and all indications are that they are in a very tough position  in terms of holding it. If they do hold it, it could mean that the Democrats are on their way to a higher than expected 8, 9 seat gain in the house. So those are some of the races we're watching in the house. Let's take a look now at some of our national exit polling.

Brian Schweitzer Approval Rating:

Approve: 52%
Disapprove: 46%

So, here you see the disconnect between the american people at large and the midterm electorate. Schweitzer's actual approval rating is 55-41 per our poll released yesterday, but the electorate that actually turned out today only approves of him 52-46. Let's look at another question:

Approval of Congress

Disapprove: 56%
Approve: 42%

So, a sour electorate when it comes to congressional approval. Congress has gotten a lot done, but neither side can really say it's accomplished it's agenda to the fullest - conservatives have had to swallow the reinstatement of ObamaCare and increased education spending, while democrats have had to swallow means testing of social security and a ban on abortion during the last 10 weeks of the pregnancy. That creates the dynamic we see here, where it appears that moderates from both sides approve of congress while partisans have a pretty sour view. Another question:

Do you have a negative view of the Republican Party?

Yes: 48%
No: 48%

Do you have a negative view of the Democratic Party?

Yes: 48%
No: 47%

The electorate that turned out today is closely divided in their opinions of both sides. This really leaves tonight's final outcomes very much up for grabs.


Next: 7:30 Poll Closings

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

7:30 PM Poll Closings

Wolf: "The Polls have closed in Ohio, West Virginia, and North Carolina, but we do not have any projections to announce. No projections in the Senate races in Ohio and West Virginia, and no projection yet for Ohio Governor either. Let's look at all the latest numbers."

Ohio Governor (1% in):

Ryan (D): 60%
Husted (R): 37%
Others: 3%

Ohio Senate (1% in):

Brown (D): 59%
DeWine (R): 38%
Others: 3%

West Virginia Senate (1% in):

Manchin (D): 52%
McKinley (R): 45%
Others: 3%

Georgia Senate (2% in):

Kingston (R): 64%
Holcomb (D): 34%
Others: 2%

Georgia Governor (2% in):

Cagle (R): 63%
Reed (D): 35%
Others: 2%

Indiana Senate (16% in):

Ballard (R): 52%
Donnelly (D): 46%
Others: 2%

Vermont Governor (5% in):

Shumlin (D): 53%
Scott (R): 43%
Others: 4%

Virginia Senate (6% in):

Forbes (R): 56%
Kaine (D): 41%
Others: 3%

Senate Map:

Republicans: 40
Democrats: 24
Independents: 3

Gubernatorial Map:

Republicans: 9
Democrats: 6

John King is looking at county breakdowns in some of these races.


King: "Let's start with the governor's race in Vermont"



"Many counties have yet to give us any data, and more republican areas of the state will come in later. Scott's early lead in LaMoille county is a good sign for him, but it's too early to draw any definitive judgement. Remember with this race that if neither candidate gets 50% of the vote, the leigslature decides the next governor. Shumlin exceeded this threshold in 2014 and 2016, getting 50.3% and 51.4% respectively. But he could be forced below it tonight. Let's move on to Indiana Senate now."



"So far, so good for Ballard. He's doing what he needs to do out in these rural areas. But Donnelly is winning in enough places to stay competitive. And, nothing in yet from the important democratic counties of Lake and Marion. The Indiana Senate race is still very much in contention."

Wolf: "Thank you for that Analysis. When we come back, we'll be talking with our correspondent for the Tim Ryan campaign in Ohio and also our correspondent for the Sarah Steelman campaign in Missouri. Stay tuned."

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Election Night 2018 - Live Coverage

Blitzer: "Welcome back to our continuing coverage. Peter Hamby is in Ohio with the Tim Ryan for Governor campaign. Hamby, how are they feeling at this hour?

Hamby: "They're cautiously optimistic. They like that they are currently outperforming Senator Brown, who they personally think has a higher chance of losing than Ryan does. They know that the early numbers in Ohio are not anywhere close to the final margin, but the margin isn't meaningless, and they are confident it is big enough to signify that they are going to win.

Blitzer: "In 2016, Schweitzer won here by a margin of 50 to 47 percent. Are they expecting a margin of that size, something closer, something bigger?

Hamby: "They'd love a big margin, but at this point, they probably expect a smaller margin than Schweitzer got."

Blitzer: Thank you. Let's now go to Carol Costello, she's with the Sarah Steelman for Senate campaign in Missouri. Obviously, the polls don't close in Missouri until the top of the hour, but what's the mood like?

Costello: They feel excellent. They just don't see how a democrat can win Missouri in a midterm. They're hoping to have a call in the race no later than 10:00 Eastern, allowing Steelman to enter her 2nd term with a strong mandate.

Blitzer: But that would suggest a rather large margin given Missouri's slow counting speed. All the polls in the final days have had Steelman up by 1-3 points. No public poll was outside of that range.

Costello: They believe the polls are based on 2016 turnout, which they don't think is going to happen. They realize the democrats did very well here as a whole in 2016, but they just think the midterm environment is so different that it leaves Democrats out of luck big time. Now, they're not saying that the state is gone forever for dems - just that it is gone for them for tonight.

Blitzer: This sounds like a poll unskewing exercise - those don't always work out the best.

Costello: They see it as knowing the truth. I don't personally buy it and expect a close race, but the campaign feels very differently, at least at this early point in the night.

Blitzer: Thank you. Anderson Cooper is with our election night panel. Anderson?

Cooper: So, Mr. Gingrich, let's start with you. Do you agree that Steelman is going to win big in Missouri?

Gingrich: I think she'll outperform the polls, but it's not going to be some sort of landslide. I think she wins by about 5, 6 points. She isn't a particularly popular incumbent and Missouri is not Tennessee no matter how much I want it to be - it still entertains the idea of voting for a democrat, and unfortunately it sometimes actually does.

Cooper: Donna Brazille?

Brazille: I'm going to go out on the limb and say that Kander is going to win. I think he's run a great campaign and has showed Missouri that he is a democrat that cares about them. Steelman has been solidly conservative on every issue, and that's not what Missouri wants. You know, two years ago, they kicked out Roy Blunt. Sarah Steelman voted with Blunt more than 99% of the time when they were in the Senate together. Sarah Steelman hasn't voted for any bill that was even remotely controversial in terms of whether it was good for conservatives. That strict partisanship isn't what Missouri needs, and that's why Kander is going to win.

Cooper: Let's talk about this race in West Virginia. Joe Manchin having the most serious contest in his life. He has a real chance of losing for, arguably, the first time in his political career. Crowley, does Manchin pull it out?

Crowley: I think he does. He's still well-liked as a Senator and continues to be very moderate. It's close because West Virginia has changed so much and republicans got a competent candidate to take the plunge instead of going with born losers like John Raese, the guy they ran in 2010 and 2012. But Manchin just hasn't done anything to make himself a toxic politician. If he can't win this contest, then there will be no fundamental difference between West Virginia and Oklahoma in terms of political leanings.

Cooper: Tapper?

Tapper: I think I agree. Manchin's starting to become toxic by virtue of being a Democrat in a very Republican state, but he's run a flawless campaign and has done absolutely everything possible to ensure he pulls this off.

Cooper: Thank you all. We'll take a short break. When we come back, we'll take a look at the exit polls in Georgia and West Virginia.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Election Night 2018 - Live Coverage

King: "Welcome back to our continuing coverage. We have some exit polls from the key battleground state of Georgia. There's a lot of good news for the Republicans here. Retiring Senator Johnny Isakson has campaigned extensively for Republican Senate Nominee Jack Kingston, and those who turned out to vote today approve of Isakson by a large margin:

In General, do you believe that Johnny Isakson is a good Senator who cares about Georgia's interests:
Yes: 59%
No: 39%

Also, look at what GA thinks of Schweitzer:

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Brian Schweitzer is doing as President?

Disapprove: 52%
Approve: 45%

However, neither candidate is all that popular:

Kingston favorability: 49/48
Holcomb favorability: 47/49

But this could be a good sign for dems:

Can Schweitzer be trusted with a Democratic Senate?

No: 50%
Yes: 46%

Surprisingly, only a four point advantage for no there in this typically republican state. That has to be giving Democrats some confidence here. Let's take a look now at Virginia. Forbes has spent most of the campaign attacking Kaine on everything imaginable, and it has worked, but his favorability is underwater too:

Kaine Favorability: 45/51
Forbes Favorability: 46/51

Our exit poll also shows that Voters approve of the current republican statewide officeholders:

Gov. Scott Rigell Approval: 55/42
Lt. Gov. Pete Snyder Approval: 50/41
Attorney General Mark Obenshain Approval: 45/37

And of the current republican Senator:

Senator Bill Bolling Approval: 47/40

But the numbers are different if we look at only northern virginia:

Gov. Scott Rigell Approval: 51/47
Lt. Gov. Pete Snyder Approval: 46/45
Attorney General Mark Obenshain Approval: 41/43
Senator Bill Bolling Approval: 43/47

And Schweitzer's approval rating in the state is slightly positive, at 50/48.

Next: 8:00 Poll Closings

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

2018 Elections - Live Coverage

8:00 Poll Closings



Blitzer: "And we can make projections in several of the senate races closing at this hour. Look at Maryland. The incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Cardin has won re-election. He defeats the Republican Attorney Richard Douglas.

Maryland Senate (Final Results):

Cardin(D): 58.7%
Douglas(R): 36.7%
Others: 4.6%

"In Connecticut, the incumbent democratic Senator Chris Murphy has been re-elected. He easily defeats Larry Kudlow, the Republican CNBC anchor.

Connecticut Senate (Final Results)

Murphy(D): 56.4%
Kudlow(R): 40%
Others: 3.6%

"In Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren easily defeats her gadfly challenger. Ditto for Republican Roger Wicker in Mississippi."

Massachusetts Senate (Final Results)

Warren (D): 62.3%
Addivinola (R): 32%
Others: 5.7%

Mississippi Senate (Final Results):

Wicker (R): 57.4%
Slater (D): 41%
Others: 1.6%

"Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse is easily re-elected in Rhode Island. Ditto for Republican Bob Corker in Tennessee."

Rhode Island Senate (Final Results):

Whitehouse (D): 68%
Zaccaria (R): 32%

Tennessee Senate (Final Results):

Corker(R): 57.8%
Dean (D): 40.1%
Others: 2.1%

"And Senator Tom Carper is easily re-elected in Delaware."

Delaware Senate (Final Results):

Carper (D): 64%
Wade (R): 33%
Others: 3%

"We cannot yet make projections in these Senate Races: Florida, Missouri, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Maine. Now, we can look at all the latest numbers:

Florida Senate (54% in):

Wexler (D): 50%
Bondi (R): 48%
Others: 2%

Missouri Senate (1% in):

Steelman (R): 55%
Kander (D): 40%
Others: 5%

Pennsylvania Senate (1% in):

Casey (D): 55%
Fitzpatrick (R): 44%
Others: 1%

New Jersey Senate (1% in):

LoBiondo (R): 52%
Pallone (D): 46%
Others: 2%

Maine Senate (1% in):

King (I): 43%
LePage (R): 36%
Bellows (D): 18%
Others: 3%

Ohio Senate (7% in):

Brown (D): 59%
DeWine (R): 38%
Others: 3%

West Virginia Senate (12% in):

Manchin (D): 51%
McKinley (R): 46%
Others: 3%

Indiana Senate (28% in):

Ballard (R): 51%
Donnelly (D): 47%
Others: 2%

Georgia Senate (9% in):

Kingston (R): 57%
Holcomb (D): 40%
Others: 3%

Virginia Senate (20% in):

Forbes (R): 55%
Kaine (D): 43%
Others: 2%

"Let's look at the gubernatorial races now. We can project a few races. In Tennessee, Republican Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn will be easily elected Governor.

Tennessee Governor (Final Results):

Blackburn (R): 55%
Purcell (D): 41.3%
Others: 3.7%

In Oklahoma, the Republican Lt. Governor Todd Lamb is easily elected governor.

Oklahoma Governor (Final Results):

Lamb (R): 65%
Savage (D): 35%

In Rhode Island, Democrat Gina Raimondo is easily re-elected. Ditto for Republican Scott Brown in Massachusetts.

Rhode Island Governor (Final Results):

Raimondo (D): 55.5%
Fung (R): 38%
Others: 6.5%

Massachusetts Governor (Final Results):

Brown (R): 63.3%
Keating (D): 35%
Others: 1.7%

And in Maine, the Republican Senator Susan Collins is elected Governor, defeating Democratic Incumbent Mike Michaud.

Maine Governor (Final Results):

Collins (R): 56.9%
Michaud (D): 38%
Others: 5.1%

Now, we cannot projections in the following states: Florida, Alabama, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut, and New Hampshire. Let's look at all the latest numbers.

Florida Governor (54% in):

Nelson (D): 51%
Atwater (R): 47%
Others: 2%

Alabama Governor (1% in):

Beasley (D): 49%
Moore (R): 47%
Others: 4%

Illinois Governor (1% in):

Dillard (R): 55%
Madigan (D): 43%
Others: 1%

Pennsylvania Governor (1% in):

Wolf (D): 55%
Gerlach (R): 43%
Others: 2%

Maryland Governor (1% in):

Mizeur (D): 54%
Hogan (R): 41%
Others: 5%

Connecticut Governor (1% in):

Shays (R): 49%
Jepsen (D): 48%
Others: 3%

New Hampshire Governor (7% in):

Pappas (D): 57%
Bradley (R): 41%
Others: 2%

Ohio Governor (7% in):

Ryan (D): 60%
Husted (R): 37%
Others: 3%

Georgia Governor (9% in):

Cagle (R): 56%
Reed (D): 41%
Others: 3%

Vermont Governor (11% in):

Shumlin (D): 50%
Scott (R): 46%
Others: 4%

Let's look at the new maps and counts for Senate and Governor.

Senate:

R: 41
D: 29
I: 3

No pickups yet for either side. The Republicans would be at 42 if not for Susan Collins being elected Governor of Maine. We do not yet know the party identity of who will replace Collins in the Senate - Michaud could make an appointment before he leaves office in January, or he could let Collins decide. Furthermore, there will be a special election at some point next year, which could be won by either party. Therefore, given this complicated situation, we have subtracted one seat from the republican total, but have not given it to any other party.

Governor:

R: 13 (+1)
D: 7

Republicans have made one pickup so far, with the defeat of Gov. Mike Michaud in Maine.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

2018 Elections - Live Coverage

Wolf: "Let's go over now to our panel."

Cooper: "Dana Bash, we'll start with you. Up north, we have three GOP Governors struggling to hang on - Larry Hogan in Maryland, Chris Shays in Connecticut, and Jeb Bradley in New Hampshire. Do you think any of them will win re-election?"

Bash: "I think Bradley does. He won re-election in 2016 by three points despite Santorum losing the state by 7. His approvals remain slightly positive, and we know that this is very likely to be a more republican climate than 2016 was. Bradley was at the top in 2016, running far ahead of Santorum but also doing better than Kelly Ayotte who was also re-elected. It'll be close, but he should pull it out."

Cooper: Hogan and Shays?

Bash: Shays I think is a complete and total toss-up. Democrats have a great nominee, but Shays is definitely no pushover. Hogan, however, is going to lose. And lose big. His approval rating is 52%, but that's not enough to compensate for Maryland's heavily, heavily democratic political lean. He just cannot win tonight.

Cooper: S.E. Cupp, your thoughts on these three races?

Cupp: I think I agree on Bradley and Shays. But Hogan has a great shot at being re-elected too. That 52% number, that means he's gaining approval of some moderate voters, conservative democrats perhaps. He should get around that 52% number tonight.

Bash: But what about people who like Hogan, but like Mizeur even more? She's a much better candidate and campaigner than Anthony Brown was in 2014.

Cupp: Yeah, maybe shave off a little of that 52% number. But I think the third party vote will be high enough where Hogan can win with 48.5%, 49%, and I think he can definitely get that.

Cooper: Now, we have some struggling democrats as well. Bill Nelson in Florida, Tom Wolf in Pennsylvania, Peter Shumlin in Vermont. Crowley, how many of them hang on?

Crowley: Probably all of them. Shumlin might lose the popular vote in Vermont, but I think he can hold Scott under 50%, which means the overwhelmingly left-leaning legislature will select a governor, and they will likely select Shumlin.

Gingrich: But this would be a different situation than the last time this happened, in 2010 - in 2010 Shumlin went into the legislature vote with more election day votes than Republican Brian Dubie and could claim the people wanted him - in your scenario it is the republican nominee who is heading into the legislature vote with more election day votes - wouldn't that matter to the legislature?

Crowley: Maybe, but the legislature is so left leaning that its hard to see Scott getting a majority. He might be able to get a close vote in the legislature, but getting a majority there, it's hard to see that.

Cooper: What makes you confident that Tom Wolf will hang on?

Crowley: It's just so difficult for republicans to win in Pennsylvania these days. They try and try but typically can't do it. It happened in 2010 because Democrats were decimated everywhere that year, but this isn't going to be like 2010. I don't expect the race to be called until very late in the night, but I think both in this race and the senate race, Republicans will be unable to find those last few votes to get them over the top.

Cooper: "Donna Brazille, let's look to the south. Alabama Governor, Missouri Senate, the races in Georgia. How do the democrats do there?"

Brazille: "I'm rather confident. I don't think we win Alabama, but I think we get within half a point of doing so. Missouri will go to us along with both races in Georgia. Democrats have run great campaigns, republicans have not, and this is a year where voters are willing to take an honest look at both sides and not just vote in lockstep with a certain party.

Cooper: Gingrich, I suspect you disagree.

Gingrich: Of course. The south is still republican. Missouri is drifting away from democrats, Alabama  remains unwinnable, and Georgia just hasn't changed enough demographically for a liberal to win there either. These will be close races, but the Republicans are going to win.

Cooper: Jay Carney?

Carney: Brazille is too optimistic. The south isn't a true battleground region and shouldn't be treated as such. I think the Democrat loses in Alabama by about four, in Missouri by two. For Georgia, I think everyone will be under 50%, taking it to a senate runoff in January, a gubernatorial runoff in December.

Cooper: Thanks everyone for those insights. We'll be back in just a few minutes with the magic wall.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Election Night 2018 - Live Coverage

King: Welcome back to our continuing coverage. Let's look at a few of these races in detail, starting with the Senate Race in Florida.



62% in:

Wexler(D): 50%
Bondi (R): 48%

Looking at this, it's mixed news for both sides. See all those counties with nothing in yet? Those are all republican counties. However, while Palm Beach is 90% in, Broward County is only 50% in and Miami Dade is only 65% in. Another important county is hillsborough, it's at 70% in and Wexler is leading by 500 votes. Let's head over now to Alabama Governor.



5% in:

Beasley (D): 50%
Moore (R): 46%

Okay. This is better than usual for Democrats at the very first glance - Monroe and Conecuh are generally R-leaning. But let's look at the counties Moore is winning and compare them to the last democratic wave year - 2008. Shelby County - McCain carried it 76-23, Moore is carrying it 69-28. Tuscaloosa - McCain carried it 57-42, now Moore is only carrying it 51-46. Chambers County - McCain carried it 54-45. Moore is carrying it 48-48. He is leading by only 3 votes in that county - and only 7% of the county has reported. And look at Beasley's counties - Jefferson County - Obama carried it 52-47, Beasley is carrying it 59-38. Conecuh - McCain carried it by 41 votes, Beasley is  now leading 52-45 in that county. Russell County - Obama carried it 53-46, Beasley is carrying it 61-36. Now, we want to caution everyone. There are a LOT of republican counties out and Moore can definitely still win. But this is not what Republicans should be doing in this state.

Now, let's go on to another race...or actually hold on, I'm told we have an important projection to make. Wolf?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

GREG BALLARD (R) √
INDIANA SENATOR


Wolf: "And you see the projection there. Greg Ballard, the Republican former Indianapolis mayor, has been elected as the next Senator of Indiana. He defeats Democratic Incumbent Joe Donnelly. Donnelly was from the start viewed as an accidental senator who only won in 2012 due to a poor opponent, and that assumption has been proven correct with the victory of Mr. Ballard. Let's go to John King at the magic wall for more on this result."



41% in:

Ballard (R): 52%
Donnelly (D): 46%
Others: 2%

King: "You see the county map there. We now have a lot more of the vote from the southern part of the state, and Donnelly is just not putting up the numbers he needs to there. You'll notice that Tippecanoe county is going for Ballard, Donnelly needed that one. Donnelly's margins in the counties in the west and north are just not what they were in 2012, and have shrunk too much. This is pickup #1 for the republican party, and it makes the democratic path to a senate majority a lot harder: They will now need not one, but two of Arizona, Missouri, and Georgia.

Final Results:

Ballard (R): 51.9%
Donnelly (D): 45.8%
Others: 2.3%

R: 42 (+1)
D: 29
I: 3

King: "Let's now take a look at what's going in West Virginia."



21% in:

Manchin (D): 50%
McKinley (R): 47%
Others: 3%

So, a lot of blank counties up there. I can tell you that there are more unreporting republican counties than unreporting democratic counties. However, none of the democratic counties that are in so far are anywhere near fully reported, and a couple of the current republican ones - including Kanawa - are over 60% in already. McKinley has to be encouraged with his lead in Jefferson and Jackson counties, but Manchin has to be encouraged by his lead in McDowell county - which voted against Earl Ray Tomblin in his successful 2012 Gubernatorial race. Still a lot to come out of this state, a fascinating race, the race that will determine if the democratic party has any remaining viability in West Virginia.

Wolf: "Thank you. When we come back, we'll have a poll closing in Arkansas."

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

8:30 ET: Arkansas Poll Closing



Wolf: "And Asa Hutchinson has won another term as Governor of Arkansas."

Arkansas Governor (Final Results):

Hutchinson (R): 55.9%
Hays (D): 43%
Others: 1.1%

R: 14 (+1)
D: 7

And one other projection to make:



"As expected, the Republicans keep their majority in the house of representatives. No one is surprised by this."

Final House Results

Republicans: 241 (+4)
Democrats: 194 (-4)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

2018 Elections: Live Coverage

King: "Let's take a look at some more of these races in detail. We'll begin with Georgia Governor."



27% in:

Cagle (R): 55%
Reed (D): 42%
Others: 3%

King: "Well, look at this! If you're a democrat looking at this map, you should be cheering right now - this county map is so far looking almost identical to the 2008 Senate Race - which was forced into a runoff. That performance in the southwest of the state is exactly what democrats need. The only changes here are ones in the democrats' favor. Mitchell county was an exact tie in 2008, now the democrat is leading by 347 votes, with 40% of the county in. Wilkes county very narrowly went Republican in 2008, now it is very narrowly going Democrat. There is no county reporting now where Reed is more than a point or two behind the 2008 Democrat Senate performance, and in most of them he is matching it or slightly exceeding it. Now, if you're wondering why the republican is leading by 13 points, look up north. NOTHING in from the Atlanta area yet. There will be a lot of democratic votes there and that will cause this to tighten dramatically. Atlanta comes in in force very late, usually during the final third of the count, so there is still a wait for that. The numbers in Atlanta will determine whether this goes to a runoff or whether Cagle can barely elude one. What I'm seeing now doesn't suggest any path for Reed to get all the way to 50% and avoid a runoff. He's just not exceeding 2008 enough for that.

On to Connecticut Governor now.



14% in:

Shays (R): 50%
Jepsen (D): 47%
Others: 3%

Nothing yet from Hartford, so don't extrapolate from these numbers too much. In fact, despite Shays's lead statewide this map is not good for him. He is losing Middlesex county, which he carried in 2014. New Haven went 49-48 for the democrat Dan Malloy in 2014, now it is going 51-46 for Jepsen. Shays is matching his 2014 performance in Litchfield, but in the other counties he is carrying he is underperforming. Still a long night ahead, but I'd rather be Jepsen at this point. On to Virginia Senate now.



35% in:

Forbes (R): 54%
Kaine (D): 44%
Others: 2%

The county map is filling in about as expected for a close race in Virginia. Republicans up early in Prince William and Louden as expected, we'll see if those counties stay republican. Nothing in yet from Fairfax, whose democratic turnout could be a key deciding factor in the race. Everything we are seeing here suggests that Forbes is far outpacing Santorum's 2016 showing, when he lost the state by 5, but it is unclear if Forbes has enough strength to actually win. One potentially bad sign for him is Kaine's lead in Suffolk City. When the Republicans won the governorship last year, that city went for them.

We'll take a short break, and look at some more exit polling data when we return.


 

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

2018 Elections: Live Coverage

King: "Welcome back to our continuing coverage. Let's look at some exit polling from the state of Alabama. We'll start with this question:"

Republican Gubernatorial Candidate Roy Moore has said that his #1 initiative is to immediately outlaw gay marriage and all homosexual intercourse, effectively banning homosexuality in Alabama and directly disobeying 2003 and 2015 supreme court rulings. Do you agree with this proposal?

Disagree: 62%
Agree: 38%

So, in the definitive issue of this election, the electorate today is decisively against Mr. Moore. But look at this:

Choice for Governor among those who chose 'Disagree' in the above question

Beasley (D): 75%
Moore (R): 20%
Others: 5%

Choice for Governor among those who chose 'Agree' in the above question

Moore (R): 96%
Beasley (D): 2%
Others: 2%

20% of those who disagree with Moore on homosexuality voted for Moore anyways, and another 5% chose a third partier over Beasley. On the other hand, only 4% of those who agree with Moore on this issue voted against him, and only half of that 4% actually voted democratic. That is what is keeping Moore competitive in this election. Another question:

Do you believe Beasley is an actual moderate?

Yes: 55%
No: 45%

So, good for Beasley there. He's convincing some pretty conservative voters that he is moderate. Of course, he isn't getting 55% of the vote statewide, as some of that will still prefer an extremely partisan republican over a moderate democrat.

Now to look at some of the exit polling from New Hampshire, another fascinating gubernatorial contest. Here's Jeb Bradley's approval rating:

Approve: 50%
Disapprove: 48%


Jeb Bradley has always been a polarizing governor from the moment of his election in 2014. In 2016 he had a slightly positive approval rating, which allowed him to win reelection by 3 percent. Tonight, his approval rating is again slightly positive, but his challenger this time is better funded, better liked, and a better campaigner than his 2016 challenger. Bradley can definitely still lose, despite these numbers. On to this question:

What do you think Bradley cares about more?

The People of New Hampshire: 52%
His Own Party: 45%

So, an advantage for Bradley in a fundamental question of this election, but remember that this is not black and white. Not everyone saying 'people of new hampshire' will vote for him.

Let's go to our panel now.

Cooper: "So, the numbers there on homosexuality in Alabama. 20% of those who disagree with Moore on homosexuality voted for him anyways. That doesn't look good for Beasley. Carney?

Carney: "Yeah, it's a troubling number, and one that suggests that Moore will come out ahead of Beasley overall when the night is over. But exit polls are just polls, and they can be wrong, and I'm obviously hoping that this one is wrong and that Beasley will become the next governor of Alabama."

Cupp: "But, you have to remember, the fact that is even a close race is terrible news for republicans. Beasley never intended to win when he entered the race. He was just a state senator tired of office, who wanted to go out with a bang by trying to run statewide. The fact that he is even coming close is serious for republicans - as this could have downticket effects. I think you're going to see the democrats have a large number of pickups in the alabama house, the alabama senate, because of this governor's race. We've been hearing that Republican Martha Roby, the 2nd us house district representative, is experiencing a competitive race tonight because of the governor's contest. The republicans really need to get better at picking actual establishment candidates, or this is the sort of thing that happens."

Gingrich: "I just want to emphasize that this race does not mean Alabama is suddenly a battleground state, or has gotten significantly less republican. It is still a staunchly republican state, and as long as the Republicans revert firmly away from Moore-style candidates in future cycles, it will return to voting over 60% republican. This is just an odd race because of who the republican nominee is."

Brazile: "But, there is a sense in which Alabama has not been properly introduced to the democratic party. If the dems actually do make significant gains in the Alabama house and senate, it could start to teach the state that there is nothing to fear from democrats. I'm not saying it's going to become like Florida or something, but it might start going republican by 56-44 or something instead of 60-40, because of this race."

Gingrich: "That's funny, I don't remember Connecticut being closer than usual in 2016 because it elected a republican in 2014."

Carney: "But, connecticut is used to competitive gubernatorial races. Alabama isn't."

Cooper: "So, backtracking some here, Cupp, do you think Roby could actually lose, or will she just win underwhelmingly."

Cupp: "I think she wins 49-44. But I think Beasley carries her congressional district. Maybe Byrne's district as well."

Cooper: Crowley?

Crowley: "Let's be sensible here, Roby isn't going to win by under 10 points. As far as Beasley goes, I think he'll carry Byrne's district before he carries Roby's."

Cooper: All right, we have a projection to make now. Wolf?



ANGUS KING (I) √
MAINE SENATOR

HEATHER MIZEUR (D) √
MARYLAND GOVERNOR

Wolf: "Two projections actually. We can project that Angus King has won reelection to his senate seat, and we can also project that Heather Mizeur will be the next governor of Maryland, defeating Republican incumbent Larry Hogan!

Maine Senate (14% in):

King (I): 44%
LePage (R): 35%
Bellows (D): 18%
Others: 3%

Maine Senate (Final Results):

King (I): 45.4%
LePage (R): 34.9%
Bellows (D): 17%
Others: 2.7%

Maryland Governor (21% in):

Mizeur (D): 53%
Hogan (R): 41%
Others: 6%

Maryland Governor (Final Results):

Mizeur (D): 50.4%
Hogan (R): 44%
Others: 5.6%

Let's look at the new maps now.

R: 42 (+1)
D: 29
I: 4

R: 14
D: 8

The parties are now breaking even with the governor's chairs. A gain for the republicans in Maine has been canceled out by the democratic gain in Maryland.

Next: 9:00 Poll Closings

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

9:00 ET Poll Closings



Wolf: "And we can make four more senate projections. Republican incumbents in Texas, Nebraska, Wyoming, and North Dakota have all won another term."

Texas Senate (Final Results):

Cruz (R): 61.5%
Watson (D): 36%
Others: 2.5%

Nebraska Senate (Final Results):

Fischer (R): 59%
Hassebrook (D): 39%
Others: 2%

Wyoming Senate (Final Results):

Barrasso (R): 79.7%
Zachary (D): 16.1%
Others: 4.2%

North Dakota (Final Results):

Berg (R): 57.1%
Purdon (D): 40%
Others: 2.9%

We cannot make projections in the following states: New Mexico, Arizona, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and New York. Let's look at all the latest numbers.

New Mexico Senate (1% in):

Heinrich (D): 53%
Sanchez (R): 44%
Others: 3%

---Arizona results not available until 10:00 under state law-----

Minnesota Senate (1% in):

Walz (D): 59%
Seifert (R): 39%
Others: 2%

Wisconsin Senate (1% in):

Thompson (R): 58%
Kind (D): 41%
Others: 1%

Michigan Senate (12% in):

Amash (R): 51%
Stabenow (D): 47%
Others: 2%

New York Senate* (1% in)

Nadler (D): 54%
Bloomberg (R): 43%
Others: 3%

*Inconsistency correction: Gillibrand was previously mentioned as the dem nominee here, but that was a rather big mistake on my part since she is actually VP. So, I've installed (now-Fmr.) U.S. Rep. Jerrold Nadler as the appointed Senator here. The Republican nominee is unchanged. I've corrected the polling map post. Apologies for any confusion.

Florida Senate (80% in):

Bondi (R): 49% (+13,765)
Wexler (D): 49%
Others: 2%

Missouri Senate (2% in):

Steelman (R): 55%
Kander (D): 40%
Others: 5%

Pennsylvania Senate (3% in):

Casey (D): 54%
Fitzpatrick (R): 45%
Others: 1%

New Jersey Senate (25% in):

LoBiondo (R): 51%
Pallone (D): 47%
Others: 2%

Ohio Senate (25% in):

Brown (D): 53%
DeWine (R): 44%
Others: 3%

West Virginia Senate (39% in):

Manchin (D): 50%
McKinley (R): 47%
Others: 3%

Georgia Senate (36% in):

Kingston (R): 57%
Holcomb (D): 40%
Others: 3%

Virginia Senate (46% in):

Forbes (R): 53%
Kaine (D): 45%
Others: 2%

For the Gubernatorial Races, we can project Republican wins in Texas, Nebraska, Wyoming, and Illinois!

Texas Governor (Final Results):

Abbott (R): 64.8%
Davis (D): 32%
Others: 3.2%

Nebraska Governor (Final Results):

Ricketts (R): 54.4%
Ashford (D): 41%
Others: 4.6%

Wyoming Governor (Final Results):

Michael (R): 100%

Illinois Governor (17% in):

Dillard (R): 65%
Madigan (D): 34%
Others: 1%

Illinois Governor (Final Results):

Dillard (R): 54.9%
Madigan (D): 43.3%
Others: 1.8%

We cannot make projections in these states: New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and New York.

New Mexico Governor (1% in):

Wilson (R): 50%
Balderas (D): 47%
Others: 3%

Colorado Governor (1% in):

Gessler (R): 57%
Salazar (D): 41%
Others: 2%

Kansas Governor (1% in):

Davis (D): 51%
Yoder (R): 45%
Others: 4%

South Dakota Governor (1% in):

Jackey (R): 52%
Sandlin (D): 46%
Others: 2%

Minnesota Governor (1% in):

Swanson (D): 56%
Coleman (R): 42%
Others: 2%

Wisconsin Governor (1% in):

Walker (R): 58%
Taylor (D): 41%
Others: 1%

Michigan Governor (12% in):

Schuette (R): 52%
Kildee (D): 46%
Others: 2%

New York Governor (1% in):

Teachout (D): 46%
Gibson (R): 40%
Hawkins (G): 13%
Others: 1%

Florida Governor (80% in):

Nelson (D): 49% (+20,004)
Atwater (R): 49%
Others: 2%

Georgia Governor (36% in):

Cagle (R): 55%
Reed (D): 42%
Others: 3%

Alabama Governor (19% in):

Beasley (D): 49%
Moore (R): 45%
Others: 6%

Ohio Governor (25% in):

Ryan (D): 53%
Husted (R): 43%
Others: 4%

Pennsylvania Governor (3% in):

Wolf (D): 55%
Gerlach (R): 44%
Others: 1%

Connecticut Governor (25% in):

Shays (R): 49%
Jepsen (D): 48%
Others: 3%

Vermont Governor (27% in):

Scott (R): 48% (+257)
Shumlin (D): 48%
Others: 4%

New Hampshire Governor (26% in):

Pappas (D): 51%
Bradley (R): 47%
Others: 2%

Let's look at the new senate and gubernatorial maps.

R: 46 (+1)
D: 29
I: 4

R: 18
D: 8

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Wolf: "A lot of uncalled races, and we do not expect to receive a large amount of projections during the hour. John King is standing by with the Magic Wall."

King: "Let's first look at what's going on in Florida:

Senate:



80% in: Bondi + 13,915

Numbers have just changed from what Wolf just showed us, so Bondi is ahead by a little more now, but still, a razor thin contest. And look, a few more votes for Bondi are still waiting to come in, as Santa Rosa County hasn't given us anything yet - she can add another 25,000 , 30,000 to her lead margin from that county. And you look along here - Bay County, 74% in, Taylor County, 86% in, Duval County, 94% in, Lake County, 83% in. So there are votes still out there for Ms. Bondi too. And look at Hillisborough County - Bondi ahead by 1,000 votes there, still 18% of the county left. That's a tragedy for the dems.

However, let's be fair and look down south. Palm Beach County is 100% in. But look at the others - Broward is at 87% in, but Miami Dade is at only 73%. You look here at the raw vote margin for Wexler in Miami Dade - 106,000. The question is, does that margin go up as we continue to count the votes, or does it go down a bit, or does it stay the same. Broward is at a 190,000 Wexler lead - we'll see if that changes as the final 13% of the vote there comes in.

But overall, this does look scary for the democrats. We'll count the votes and see what happens, but Republicans may have their 2nd pickup in the bag.

Governor:



81% in: Nelson + 19,996

Florida counting as we speak here. This race is less of a terror for Democrats. Nelson leads in Hillsborough by several thousand votes, and also has a lead in Lean R Madison County. His margins in Miami Dade, Broward are larger than Wexler's, he's losing Duval by a little less. And it shows in this marginal lead. Again, Santa Rosa is the elephant in the room, and we have to see what the rest of the South FL Vote reveals. But so far, Nelson is pulling this race out.  Over to Vermont now.



This is an excellent map for Scott. Among the counties reporting, you really couldn't ask for any more of them to be republican, realistically speaking. Shumlin should be running scared right now. Sure, he's used to seeing troublesome maps - he only won by a landslide once, in 2012. But Scott is consistently outperforming Milne's 2014 numbers, Dubie's 2016 numbers, even Dubie's 2010 numbers in some places. Scott could get to 50% tonight. And this is in VT, a state that is supposed to be very liberal. Even against a controversial incumbent, this is simply a great performance. Let's check up on the situation in Alabama now.



21% in: Beasley 49-45

This race continues to be more favorable for democrats than even the most optimstic observers foresaw. Now, I want to emphasize, only 21% of the vote is in, but if this holds, it will be astounding. No one was expecting Beasley to win by 4. Now, as we look at the counties here, comparing them to the democratic wave year of 2008, keep in mind that most of these are not anywhere close to fully in. Up near Birmingham, Cullman county. McCain received 82% of the vote here, Moore is getting 74%. St. Clair County. McCain got 81%, Moore is again getting 74%. Shelby County - McCain got 76%, Moore is getting 66%. Jefferson County. Obama won it 52-47, but Beasley  is winning it 59-36. Chambers County - McCain got 54%, and earlier in the night, Moore was leading in this county, but now Beasley has taken a 48-46 lead there. Mobile County, McCain won it 54-46, now Beasley is winning it 50-44. Marengo County - Obama got 52%, Beasley is getting 63%. Tuscaloosa. McCain got 58%, but Moore is only leading 48-46 there currently.

The only real thing for Moore to take comfort in is that the democratic counties, are, generally, reporting faster than the republican counties. So it may be the case that Beasley will effectively run out of votes and Moore will catch up. But it's far from a guarantee. It may be the case that even the south doesn't support going against a 2003 supreme court ruling.

We'll take a quick break now. When we come back, we'll get our panels latest thoughts.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Cooper: We're back with our election night panel. We just saw the dire-looking prospects for Democratic Senator Robert Wexler on the magic wall. Now, it's possible for democrats to get the senate majority without Florida, especially with the extenuating circumstances with Collins getting elected governor of Maine, but it doesn't seem likely. Donna Brazile, can the democrats get the senate without Florida, realistically?

Brazile: They can, but it would be tough. We'd have to sweep Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Michigan, Montana, New Jersey, Nevada, Wisconsin, and 2 of Arizona, Missouri, and Georgia. If we can hold Florida, we gain some insurance on the rest of the map. So that's difficult. But I still think the democrats will have a net gain at night's end, regardless of what Florida shows.

Cooper: Carney?

Carney: I've been hearing from Missouri that the democratic operatives there are really happy with the turnout. They really think that Senator Steelman is in danger, despite these troubling results in Florida and the inconclusive pictures in Ohio, Michigan, and West Virginia. And I think Steelman is a sort of bellwether senator tonight, in that if she loses, democrats pick up the Senate, and if she wins, republicans hold it.

Cooper: Out of Arizona and Georgia, which one do you think flips first? Democrats will need one of those, even with Missouri, assuming they lose Florida.

Carney: Definitely Arizona. Sinema is exactly the sort of conservative democrat that can win down there, she's run a really strong campaign, the governor's race is also very tight. Arizona really seems ready to back the democratic party. Georgia should go to a runoff, but I think Republicans will hold that seat at the end of the day.

Crowley: You know, people have just been kind of assuming that Georgia will go to a runoff, and I think the governor's race will, but you look at this senate race here, and Holcomb is clearly underperforming Reed. The county map for Holcomb is less impressive. Kingston's lead has been declining at a slower pace than Cagle's over the course of the night. Now, that could change, yes, but Georgia embracing democrats - or at least, considering the party for another month or two, is a revolutionary change for the state - they may not be ready to do it at all levels yet.

Cupp: Well, you did have that situation in 2008 where Chambliss was forced into a runoff.

Gingrich: That was a democratic wave year, and Chambliss fell just 8,000 votes short of getting 50% on election night. This is supposed to be a neutral year, perhaps even a Lean R year.

Cooper: Now, we also are waiting on projections from New Mexico, Minnesota, and New York. Are the democrats in any real danger in those states?

Gingrich: Well, I'd love for that to be the case, because then we could get a filibuster-proof majority and give this country the conservative policies it needs. But no. The decision desk is probably being a little cautious considering the results in Florida and LoBiondo's early lead in New Jersey. But I expect all of those to be called within the next hour or so. It's just not realistic.

Bash: But I think there's some worry in New York in terms of the gubernatorial race. The thing you do have with the Senate race is the republicans got Michael Bloomberg to be their candidate, which will make more of the state than usual open to voting Republican. That gives Gibson, whose race has always been closer, a real shot at victory, especially considering the large amount of votes the green party could get for Governor, perhaps as high as 10 or 12%, all of which will come at the expense of the democratic side.

Cooper: Democrats are really worried about some of these gubernatorial contests. In Kansas, where Paul Davis is running for reelection. In Wisconsin, where Scott Walker may have once again eluded the state's democratic tilt. Heather Wilson has run a great campaign for reelection in New Mexico. How will democrats do in those races?

Crowley: I think Republicans are slight favorites in all three of those, but if one of them does go democratic, it is probably Wisconsin. Walker's approvals aren't where they were in 2014, and Taylor is really a lot stronger of a candidate than Mary Burke was.

Brazile: I think Davis has a good chance too. He's governed carefully, as a moderate, and he knows the challenge of overcoming the state's red tilt. Kevin Yoder, at times, has seemed to think that victory will come easy for him. But Davis is not a pushover.

Cooper: And finally, Kirkpatrick in Arizona. Can she win the governorship?

Cupp: I don't think so. It will be tight, but Ducey has been on the trail, in the swing areas, running a solid, high-energy campaign. And Arizona does still have that republican lean, and it's a midterm. I think that will be a republican hold.

Cooper: All right. When we come back, we'll be talking with the Kevin Yoder campaign in Kansas, and the longshot campaign of Justin Amash for Senate in Michigan.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Blitzer: "Welcome back to CNN's election night coverage. I'm Wolf Blitzer. So far, it's been a slow night, with lots of close races throughout the country. Let's talk to our correspondents in the field. Erin Burnett is with the Kevin Yoder campaign in Kansas. Erin, what's the mood like there?

Erin: "Cautious optimism, Wolf. The early vote in Kansas tends to come from the two more liberal congressional districts in the state, the 2nd and the 3rd, and the fact that they are only trailing by 5 considering that is really giving them some confidence. But they know they still have to put up a good showing in the 4th and 1st congressional districts."

Blitzer: "Most expectations about the governor's races seem to suggest that democrats will gain several seats, net, at the end of the night. There will be republican gains of course - at least in Maine and California, and quite possibly in Vermont as well - but what's the rational for this race bucking the trend, so to speak?"

Erin: "They really see the 2014 Result as a fluke. They don't believe that Davis has been a governor who is really in tune with the interests of Kansas, and they also point to Kansas's mostly republican recent electoral history. Obviously, they do know it's a long night ahead, and a victory speech by either side is still a long way away."

Blitzer: "We also know there is a spirited and well-funded effort to take down Rep. Lynn Jenkins in the 3rd district. Are you hearing anything on how that race is going to go?"

Erin: "Sadly, no, though I will say that turnout in the 3rd district is reported as being unusually high. That tends to benefit democrats. If Jenkins is defeated, though, then I'd expect Davis to be reelected easily. It really takes a lot of coattails to get a U.S. Rep. from Kansas defeated."

Blitzer: Thanks Erin. Nick Valencia is with the campaign of the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Michigan, Justin Amash. Valencia, their feelings at this early point?

Valencia: They still think they have a chance at pulling off a miracle. They know that it would be a huge surprise, especially considering Mike Rogers wasn't able to win an open senate seat in 2014, a very republican year. But they think they've given the people of Michigan a clear alternative to Stabenow, and they think, even if she wins, it won't be anywhere near the sort of landslide she enjoyed in 2006 and 2012.

Blitzer: What are you hearing from them about why this race isn't looking close from the polling? We have seen very close polls in Pennsylvania, which isn't much more republican than Michigan. Why is this race so different than that one?

Valencia: Well, they say that Stabenow is popular and just hard to take down. But they think they've really put the race into play in the final hours and they believe that a victory is possible. Of course, if that does happen, then I'd expect Republicans to end up with 58 or 59 senate seats at the end of the night, maybe even a filibuster proof 60 seat majority. So odds are Stabenow will hold on - but her margin could be a clue of how democrats are doing in Montana and Pennsylvania and other closer races.

Blitzer: All right, thanks, now we have a projection to make in a different senate race.



MARTIN HEINRICH (D)

New Mexico Senator

7% in: Heinrich 55, Sanchez 41

Final Results: Heinrich 53.8, Sanchez 42.3, Others 3.9

"As expected, the Democrat Martin Heinrich has been reelected to the senate from the state of New Mexico. The Republicans never really had real hopes of winning here."

R: 46 (+1)
D: 30
I: 4

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

9:38 ET

King: "Let's take a look now at this critical senate race in Georgia, an increasingly important one for the democrats if they are going to take back the senate:



45% in: Kingston 57-40

So, you see the republican candidate, Jack Kingston with a big statewide lead, but what matters is where the votes still to count are. In Fulton County, you have about a third of the vote in, Holcomb is getting 61%, that's better than the 2014 democratic showing, but the question is, did you get the turnout. And you look below it - Clayton County, nothing in, DeKalb county, nothing in, the swing county of Henry, nothing in, Gwinnett County, nothing in. And if you look at the black belt, it is pretty much continous from west to east, in 2014, there were was a break in it here and there, we are not seeing that tonight. But it's not all good news for Holcomb. You see those empty counties over in northwest GA, there are more republican votes here. You see those empty counties a bit southeast of the Atlanta, stretching down to Jones and Oglethorpe, still out, there will be republican votes there. And you see Baker county down south, Democrats can win there in a close race, but Kingston has the lead there right now. So, still a lot to come in, and it's just a matter of waiting, to see if Kingston can stay above 50%, or if we need to go to a runoff in January. Let's take a look at the governor's race now:



46% in: Cagle 55-42

You see here, a narrower republican margin. That's been the case all night, Kasim Reed outpacing Scott Holcomb by a couple of points. And the difference is in the map. Reed is carrying Telfair County, Holcomb is not. Baker, Early, Mitchell counties going for Reed but not for Holcomb. Same for Wilkes county up in the northeast and Chattanoochee county just above the black belt. Cagle is not quite reaching Kingston's margins in south and far north Georgia. Reed is winning Fulton by more than Holcomb is. But again, there are both democratic and republican areas outstanding, and we have a long way to go in this count.

We're starting to get a meaningful count in Missouri, a state democrats probably need, especially if they can't get Georgia. Let's take a look:



15% in: Steelman 53-42

Republicans always start out ahead in Missouri, but these rural counties coming in for Steelman, they're relatively tiny counties. The real area to watch is over in the St. Louis Area. You see St. Louis City starting to come in, we have about 10% of that vote and Kander is getting the percentages he needs, it's just a question of turnout. You see St. Louis County is not in yet. Kander needs to do well in Jefferson and Jackson counties as well, those areas are not yet in. What Steelman has to do to offset that is run it up everywhere else in the state and keep defections to democrats in the rural areas to a minimum. You can see Kander with a lead in Shannon there, that could be a bad sign for Steelman. Still a long night ahead though, only 15% of the vote is in statewide. Let's look at...or actually, we have a major projection to make, right now, in a critical senate contest. Wolf?

Wolf: Two Projections actually. One is as expected, the other maybe not so much. Take a look at this...

[YPestis25]

Great timeline! Nice to see Missouri hasn't become another Arkansas just yet.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

PAM BONDI (R) √
Florida Senator

JERROLD NADLER (D) √
New York Senator


Florida Senate - 91% in - Bondi + 32,923
Florida Senate - 100% in - Bondi 49.2, Wexler 48.4, Others 2.4

New York Senate - 12% in - Nadler 54-42
New York Senate - Final - Nadler 52.6, Bloomberg 44.4, Others 3

Wolf: "You see the projections there. Nadler holds on to the seat he was appointed to in New York, though by a lesser margin than NY Democrats normally enjoy. But the big one is in Florida, Pam Bondi defeating democratic incumbent Senator Robert Wexler. That is pickup #2 for Republicans tonight.

R: 47 (+2)
D: 31
I: 4

So, looking at the map here, New England is starting to come in for the Democrats, but they need to extend that red down into Pennsylvania, into New Jersey, into West Virginia and Virginia, and into Ohio. You see Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, all three of those need to go for the democrats if they are to take back the senate. So still a long way for the democrats if they are to take back the senate. Republicans need just three more victories, since Orman is likely to continue caucusing with them. But the good news for the democrats is the only seat Republicans can count on is Utah, where the polls have not yet closed. Everything else is at least potentially winnable for democrats.

But, John King, the democrats really thought they had a grasp on non-presidential races in Florida, and they controlled both senate seats and the governorship there coming into tonight. What happened here?

King: Well, the map really tells the story:



Santa Rosa finally came in, and Bondi got the numbers she needs. We still have a bit of vote out in Miami Dade, a bit of Hillsborough, but there's republican vote here and there as well. The numbers just weren't there in the democratic areas for Senator Wexler. The governor's race, however, is a different story:



91% in: Atwater + 4,003

Atwater has taken the lead in this race, but he's only ahead by 4,000 votes. And you see the differences in the map - Madison County, Franklin County, Hillsborough County all going for Nelson. He is not suffering as much as Wexler is in the republican areas and has bigger margins down south. This is the sort of race where we need to go to 100% in before calling it - there's some republican vote out, but opportunity exists for Nelson as well. And remember, if the margin is less than half a percent, there is an automatic statewide recount. That's looking pretty likely at the moment. We'll go ahead and look at Colorado Governor now.



45% in: Gessler 52-46

Colorado comes in quickly because you have mail-in ballots. No other state is counting quite this fast. But you have the ingredients here for a close race. Gessler ahead narrowly in Larimer, Jefferson, and Arapahoe, but votes are still out there. Still plenty of Denver left as well. Salazar has the lead in Adams county. Some of the counties not in yet are republican, some of them are democratic, but what you have here is a close contest. Still a long way to go in Colorado. Let's see how Manchin is faring in West Virginia Senate:



57% in: Manchin 50-47

Manchin is continuing to hold up as more and more of the vote comes in. We still have a strip of counties not in here, and there's potential for McKinley there, some of these republican counties aren't completely in yet either. On the other hand, Manchin has a modest margin in Kanawha, there's still vote left there. McDowell still has some votes left for Manchin as well. Still plenty of vote left to count in West Virginia, about 40% of the precincts still. It appears Manchin is holding on, but no one is betting much money on this yet.

Next: 10 PM Poll Closings

[Intell]

That WV map is very interesting.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

10:00 ET Poll Closings



Wolf: "And as expected, the Republicans win the Senate Race in Utah."

Utah Senate (Final Results)

Love (R): 63.4%
Powell (D): 30%
Others: 6.6%

"We can also project the senate races in Minnesota and Michigan for the democrats.

Minnesota Senate (25% in):

Walz (D): 57%
Seifert (R): 40%
Others: 3%

Minnesota Senate (Final Results):

Walz (D): 52.7%
Seifert (R): 44.6%
Others: 2.7%

Michigan Senate (30% in):

Amash (R): 49%
Stabenow (D): 48%
Others: 3%

Michigan Senate (Final Results):

Stabenow (D): 51.7%
Amash (R): 45.7%
Others: 2.6%

R: 48 (+2)
D: 33
I: 4

If Independents caucus as they have in the past:

R: 49 (+2)
D: 36

Wolf: "So, you look at this, the democrats with definitely 33 members in their caucus, 36 if the independents continue to caucus 3-1 in the democrats' favor. Now, there are three seats out west the democrats should hold, that would get them to 39. Democrats' should eventually get Collins's seat in Maine, even it takes a special election, again, Collins is vacating that seat, which is not up for election tonight, as she was elected governor. That would be the 40th democratic seat. But beyond that, they really need to start winning in these battleground races. Let's look at the latest numbers.

Nevada Senate (1% in):

Horsford (D): 65%
Heller (R): 32%
Others: 3%

Montana Senate (1% in):

Tester (D): 58%
Rehberg (R): 37%
Others: 5%

Arizona Senate (1% in):

Flake (R): 56%
Sinema (D): 42%
Others: 2%

Missouri Senate (20% in):

Steelman (R): 53%
Kander (D): 43%
Others: 4%

Wisconsin Senate (14% in):

Thompson (R): 55%
Kind (D): 43%
Others: 2%

Georgia Senate (54% in):

Kingston (R): 56%
Holcomb (D): 41%
Others: 3%

Virginia Senate (70% in):

Forbes (R): 51%
Kaine (D): 47%
Others: 2%

West Virginia Senate (59% in):

Manchin (D): 50%
McKinley (R): 47%
Others: 3%

Ohio Senate (47% in):

Brown (D): 49%
DeWine (R): 48%
Others: 3%

Pennsylvania Senate (35% in):

Casey (D): 53%
Fitzpatrick (R): 45%
Others: 2%

New Jersey Senate (52% in):

LoBiondo (R): 50%
Pallone (D): 48%
Others: 2%

For the gubernatorial contests, we can project that the republicans will hold on in South Dakota.

South Dakota Governor (26% in):
Jackey (R): 52%
Sandlin (D): 46%
Others: 2%

South Dakota Governor (Final Results):

Jackey (R): 51.3%
Sandlin (D): 47%
Others: 1.7%

R: 19
D: 8

You see the map there, and just look at all of those yellow states. The gubernatorial projections have been very slow to come in, due to the large number of close races across the country. The Democrats with plenty of potential for gains, but they have yet to turn that potential into reality. Let's look at the numbers:

Nevada Governor (1% in):

Miller (D): 64%
Hutchinson (R): 33%
Others: 3%

Arizona Governor (1% in):

Ducey (R): 55%
Kirkpatrick (D): 43%
Others: 2%

Iowa Governor (1% in):

Fitzgerald (D): 60%
Northey (R): 38%
Others: 2%

New Mexico Governor (22% in):

Wilson (R): 50%
Balderas (D): 47%
Others: 3%

Colorado Governor (50% in):

Gessler (R): 52%
Salazar (D): 46%
Others: 2%

Kansas Governor (25% in):

Davis (D): 50%
Yoder (R): 46%
Others: 4%

Minnesota Governor (25% in):

Swanson (D): 54%
Coleman (R): 44%
Others: 2%

Wisconsin Governor (14% in):

Walker (R): 56%
Taylor (D): 43%
Others: 1%

Michigan Governor (30% in):

Schuette (R): 51%
Kildee (D): 47%
Others: 2%

Ohio Governor (47% in):

Ryan (D): 50%
Husted (R): 48%
Others: 2%

Pennsylvania Governor (35% in):

Wolf (D): 54%
Gerlach (R): 44%
Others: 2%

New York Governor (15% in):

Teachout (D): 46%
Gibson (R): 41%
Hawkins (G): 12%
Others: 1%

Connecticut Governor (49% in):

Shays (R): 49%
Jepsen (D): 48%
Others: 3%

Vermont Governor (45% in):

Scott (R): 49%
Shumlin (D): 47%
Others: 4%

New Hampshire Governor (50% in):

Bradley (R): 50%
Pappas (D): 48%
Others: 2%

Alabama Governor (40% in):

Beasley (D): 49%
Moore (R): 45%
Others: 6%

Georgia Governor (54% in):

Cagle (R): 54%
Reed (D): 42%
Others: 4%

Florida Governor (92% in):

Atwater (R): 49% (+3,884)
Nelson (D): 49%
Others: 2%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Wolf: "So, still a long way to go on this election night. Significant calls will come eventually, but no one can quite say when. John, delve into a few of these."

King: "Sure. In some of these races, you have to wait for an initial democratic bias to get out of the count and make things actually look meaningful. Ohio's one of those states, and we are now ready to take our first real look at the Senate Race there.



This is very typical for a close race in Ohio. A lot more republican counties, but the democrats win the population centers - the democratic margin in these areas is what decides these contests. And this is where we see some good news for Brown, even though he's just barely leading overall at this point. Down in Hamilton County, this is where republicans can actually win a population center. Only 21% of the vote is in, so we'll count this out and see what happens, but so far Brown is ahead 54-43 in that county. Cuyahoga, Brown is getting 66%. That's about what he needs. Also, look out in Coal Country to the east - Monroe County. Santorum won that county in both 2012 and 2016. Kasich carried it in 2014 (Note: he had a different opponent from RL in Romney Downfall) . But you see that Brown has the lead in that county - that's a good sign for the democrats.

But don't get too comfortable, democrats. You see Wood County up there? It voted for Schweitzer in 2016, but it is going for DeWine tonight. DeWine has a good margin in Lake County. Butler and Huron are significant republican counties, we have nothing in there yet. And there are votes still left in many of the republican counties that are reporting.

The gubernatorial race is looking a little better for the democrats, but the map is the same aside from Wood County. Overall, Ohio is what it always is - competitive and hard to call. Let's look at Virginia now.



73% in: Forbes 51-47

So, this is 73% of the vote in Virginia. We're starting to get close to a conclusion here. And this could be pickup number three for republicans. On a night which is supposed to be good for democrats, Republicans could get their third senate pickup tonight, right here in the state of Virginia, a state where the electorate tonight approves of Schweitzer by the same margin it voted for him by in 2016, 52-47.  But yet, Kaine, who is very close to the Schweitzer administration, is in a fight for his political life here. Let's take a look up here in Northern Virginia though, and see what he's got left.

Only 55% of the vote is in in Fairfax county, and Kaine is winning there 58-40. So, a lot of votes left for him there. Up above it, only 80% of the vote is in in Arlington County, so still potential for Kaine there. Fairfax city is at 93% in, so that's pretty much done. Let's check on the swingy areas of Northern Virginia where Forbes is winning - okay, Loudoun County is at 91% in and Forbes is clinging to a 50-48 lead there. Talk about close. No one is getting any sort of margin out of there, but the winner could matter if this gets really close. Prince William County is also important. When Scott Rigell won the governorship last year, he carried this county, and Forbes is carrying it as well. We have 83% of the vote in there, Forbes is ahead, again, 50-48. But we'll watch that and see if he stays ahead. And down to the southern part of the state briefly now, Virginia Beach is always slow to report, and we still have a quarter of the vote left there at this hour. Forbes ahead 53-45, we'll see if that narrows as the night continues. Up above it, we have Norfolk, a democratic area, only 60% of the vote is in there, so still some votes left for Kaine in that area.

So, in Virginia, it's just a matter of waiting to see if Kaine can get the margins and turnout needed to catch up. Let's click over to Kansas Governor now.