Democrats: Concede One State
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Author Topic: Democrats: Concede One State  (Read 2672 times)
Free Bird
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« on: July 13, 2015, 02:25:48 AM »
Democrats, saying the map will be the same as 2012 is cocky. If you were willing to say which one state the GOP will pick up, which would it be?
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Bakersfield Uber Alles
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #1 on: July 13, 2015, 02:47:42 AM »
COLORADO

Florida
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Beet
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« Reply #2 on: July 13, 2015, 02:53:03 AM »
Virginia.
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Thunderbird is the word
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« Reply #3 on: July 13, 2015, 03:05:42 AM »
Colorado obviously (normal$
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Beet
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« Reply #4 on: July 13, 2015, 04:06:57 AM »

Well we can't say Colorado because it's too stereotypical, apparently.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #5 on: July 13, 2015, 06:14:36 AM »
If Yeb is the nominee, should Dems even contest Florida?
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TomC
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« Reply #6 on: July 13, 2015, 06:19:17 AM »
Iowa
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Mehmentum
Icefire9
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« Reply #7 on: July 13, 2015, 06:46:24 AM »
Florida, considering it was the narrowest win in 2012, and two of the top candidates are from the state.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #8 on: July 13, 2015, 07:26:25 AM »
Colorado, giving up Florida is electorally bonkers even if Jebidiah or Mark Blonde is the nom.
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Slander and/or Libel
Figs
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« Reply #9 on: July 13, 2015, 07:28:20 AM »
Quote from: Free Bird on July 13, 2015, 02:25:48 AM
Democrats, saying the map will be the same as 2012 is cocky.

Real trenchant analysis there, fella.
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DS0816
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« Reply #10 on: July 13, 2015, 08:03:46 AM »
Free Bird,

If 2016 is a Republican pickup of the presidency, more than one state will flip from 2012 Democratic to 2016 Republican.

If 2016 is a Democratic hold of the presidency, the percentage margin with the U.S. Popular Vote will have a connection to states flipped.

Haven't been here long enough to understand this?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #11 on: July 13, 2015, 09:39:43 AM »
Florida is the obvious choice; it was the closest Obama win in 2012.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #12 on: July 13, 2015, 09:51:30 AM »
2012 map
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mds32
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« Reply #13 on: July 13, 2015, 09:54:06 AM »
Iowa or Colorado will be one of the states the Democrats concede. The trends in Iowa's registration could hint to that and with it being a cheap media market and having a ton of GOP exposure already it could be conceded early if the polls don't lean in the Democrats direction.

Colorado has been leaning towards certain GOP candidates, if one were to win the primaries then Colorado could be conceded.
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ag
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« Reply #14 on: July 13, 2015, 10:00:09 AM »
Quote from: mds32 on July 13, 2015, 09:54:06 AM
Iowa or Colorado will be one of the states the Democrats concede. The trends in Iowa's registration could hint to that and with it being a cheap media market and having a ton of GOP exposure already it could be conceded early if the polls don't lean in the Democrats direction.

Colorado has been leaning towards certain GOP candidates, if one were to win the primaries then Colorado could be conceded.

Iowa registration has more to do with the relative excitement of the nomination season.
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mds32
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« Reply #15 on: July 13, 2015, 10:04:36 AM »
The Iowa registration has long been in GOP hands, it flipped in 2013 and has been in GOP hands ever since. Far before the excitement of the primaries. It flipped in Sept. 2013. The majority in registration terms could make the state R+1.

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/VRStatsArchive/2013/CoSept13.pdf
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bballrox4717
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« Reply #16 on: July 13, 2015, 10:15:05 AM »
Ohio, just so that the massive media circlejerk over it every election cycle ends when we win without it.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #17 on: July 13, 2015, 10:16:34 AM »
A Christie/Kasich ticket might lead to either Pennsylvania or Ohio or possibly both leaning right.
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Xing
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« Reply #18 on: July 13, 2015, 10:57:15 AM »
COLRODAO! LLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLO!

Florida, considering that I'd expect it to go Republican in a 1-2% Democratic win anyway.
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Vega
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« Reply #19 on: July 13, 2015, 11:49:41 AM »
Iowa. The Democratic pathway doesn't really need to include it. There just isn't anything stopping it from becoming Likely-R in eight years or so (much as Virgina did the opposite in favor of the Democrats).
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DrScholl
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« Reply #20 on: July 13, 2015, 11:53:27 AM »
Idaho. It's clearly not going to flip.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #21 on: July 13, 2015, 11:56:20 AM »
Colorado and or FL. Co has mail in ballots.  And I have seen consistant Clinton leads in Ohio, whereas CO has been clearly up in the air.

Clinton can certainly lose Jeb's homestate of FL. But, with the favorable decision, by the FL state Supreme Crt. It is a true tossup.
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King
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« Reply #22 on: July 13, 2015, 11:59:27 AM »
Quote from: Free Bird on July 13, 2015, 02:25:48 AM
Democrats, saying the map will be the same as 2012 is cocky.

No. Cocky is the GOP changing absolutely nothing from 2012, running worse candidates, and declaring that they are entitled that the Democrats concede at least one state.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #23 on: July 13, 2015, 12:18:18 PM »
Missouri.
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TomC
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« Reply #24 on: July 13, 2015, 09:33:28 PM »
Quote from: DS0816 on July 13, 2015, 08:03:46 AM
Free Bird,

If 2016 is a Republican pickup of the presidency, more than one state will flip from 2012 Democratic to 2016 Republican.

If 2016 is a Democratic hold of the presidency, the percentage margin with the U.S. Popular Vote will have a connection to states flipped.

Haven't been here long enough to understand this?



Aww man, you harshed my mellow Sad
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