Monmouth: Bush & Trump ahead

[Tender Branson]

They polled all 17 candidates for the first time:

15% Bush
13% Trump
  9% Cruz
  7% Huckabee
  7% Walker
  6% Carson
  6% Paul
  6% Rubio => in the debate
  2% Christie
  2% Jindal
  2% Perry
  2% Santorum
  1% Fiorina
  1% Kasich
<1% Graham
<1% Pataki
  0% Gilmore
  0% "other"
  1% "no one"
18% "undecided"

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from July 9 to 12, 2015 with 1,001 adults in the United States. This release is based on a sample of 336 registered voters who identify themselves as Republicans or lean toward the Republican Party. This voter sample has a margin of error of +5.4 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

http://www.monmouth.edu/university/monmouth-university-poll-reports.aspx

[Likely Voter]

Thoughts
Trumpmetum is real
Bushs bounce is really hurting Rubio
Good number for cruz who had been hurt by Trump in other polls
Christie actually dropped 2 points since their last poll before his announcement
Santorum, Fiorina, Graham, Kasich, Jindal have to do something to get some notice

[Tender Branson]

So, there are 8 candidates (in blue) that are almost guaranteed to be invited to the 1st debate.

And 9 candidates fighting for the remaining 2 spots.

The best chances: Perry, Christie & Santorum (also based on other recent polls) - via RCP.

[tmthforu94]

They need to expand the debate stage - wouldn't be shocked if they decide to. Fiorina needs to be on it and Kasich has the qualifications to be a top-tier candidate, he's just getting started late.

[Tender Branson]

Serious question:

If Kasich fails to be in the top-10 for the debate rankings (and he will), and the media that's hosting the debate still invites him as either the 10th or 11th candidate (because the debate is in OH and he's the Governor there), would that create some backlash for him and an outcry from the others that were excluded ? Or won't this happen anyway ?

[Likely Voter]

Can't see how FOX could just add an arbitrary 'courtesy' invite to their criteria. Last week when they 'clarified' that they will require FEC financial disclosures they emphasized that they have stuck to their original criteria from the beginning without changing it. How could they now say, "all that and oh yeah also Kasich because reasons"

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The polls have had it right all along Jeb and Trump will go at in NH with slight Jeb lead.

[Mr. Morden]

fav/unfav % among Republican primary voters:

Carson 48/11% for +37%
Rubio 53/19% for +34%
Cruz 48/16% for +32%
Walker 42/11% for +31%
Huckabee 53/23% for +30%
Perry 45/21% for +24%
Santorum 40/18% for +22%
Bush 50/30% for +20%
Jindal 35/15% for +20%
Paul 44/26% for +18%
Fiorina 30/18% for +12%
Kasich 19/16% for +3%
Trump 40/41% for -1%
Gilmore 6/14% for -8%
Graham 17/33% for -16%
Pataki 13/31% for -18%
Christie 25/45% for -20%

[Mr. Morden]

Comparing candidate favorability from their June poll to their July poll…Trump had been hated by GOP voters, but now they're mixed on him:



It's also interesting how unknown Walker still is.  53% of GOP voters have an opinion of him, which makes him better known than, say, Jindal, Fiorina, and Kasich.  But he lags behind Carson, Rubio, Cruz, Huckabee, Perry, etc. in name recognition.

[Brittain33]

LOL at Christie having a higher absolute unfavorable number than Trump with lower recognition.