Tory Leadership Contest

[Banana Republic]

You mention that Liam Fox is popular, but you didn't explain why he doesn't have a shot as leader.  Can you explain?

I agree that David Davies is the likely choice as he is very popular with the rank and file, and with many MPs.

He's popular with the rank and file, but that doesn't matter, it's the MP's who decide once the reforms to the system are made, and he isn't popular with the MP's because they think he's unloyal. More importantly, Howard doesn't like him, and only gave him the Home Secretary post for not running when IDS stepped aside. Aside from that, the MPs know good and well that he won't win an election. They've learned thier lesson.

Notre Dame, I never said Fox doesn't have a shot, I just don't think he'll run. If he does then he'll have a chance

[Michael Z]

My rankings in terms of "Most likely to become Tory leader"

1. David Davis
2. David Cameron
3. Theresa May
4. Malcolm Rifkind
5. Liam Fox

(Clarke, Hague, and Letwin won't run so they don't make the list.)

...and "Should become Tory leader if they want to have a cat in hell's chance of winning the next election":

1. David Cameron
2. George Osborne
3. Kenneth Clarke
4. Oliver Letwin (says he'll definitely not run, but, heck, this is a hypothetical list and I'll pick whoever I please)
5. Nicholas Soames (I'm serious)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Big Tory doner (Kalms) has called on Howard to quit immediately

[minionofmidas]

He probably doesn't like the prospect of a rules change.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Seeing as he is extremely right wing that's almost certainly the reason.
Things could get very, very nasty; not only is the Right getting angry about what they see as an attempt by Howard to stop their man (Davis) from becoming leader, the moderates have been causing him a lot of headaches as well; Yeo and Soames resigned the other day on the basis that the Tory party can't be modernised from within the Shadow Cabinet (!), Ancram is rumoured to be quitting soon... and Bercow (who used to be on the extreme right. Amazing how some people change isn't it?) has been going around the TV stations calling on (effectivily) a Tory version of New Labour...

[Rural Radical]

Bercow is preparing himself to defect to Labour when they elect Davis.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tory shadow cabinet reshuffeled: all likely candidates have got jobs...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hague has pulled out

[minionofmidas]

You mean he was in at one point?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well his name was being floated around a lot

[Bunnybrit]

As a Party member I hope we still get a vote when they change the rules.
As for the Leadership, I think it should be Osbourne or Cameron. Young likable and moderate. Howard has given the party and a base to build on for 2009/10. If the economy goes tits up up as people say it will in the next few years then whoever is picked stands a very good chance of being the Prime-Minister after next, assuming Blair hands over to Brown during the next 4/5 years.
Hague turned down a chance to return to the front bench as shadow defence Sec but has not ruled out returning after the Leadership race.
I would be suprised if Liam Fox stood as he didnt in 2001 when many in the Party wanted him to stand. He didnt he said because of his family.
I like David Davis, and he has done well as shadow Home Sec and has stayed where has was in the reshuffle.
It will be interesting to see how George Osbourne does against Gordon Brown in the next few months, it could make or break his chances.
Oliver Letwin is not standing which is a shame, I like him and he was been moved across to Environment.
I only saw david Cameron for the first time at last year `sparty conference in Bournemouth, and I was very, very impressed, and  hewill stand and must have a good chance.
Ken Clarke will not stand this time, he has missed his time now, his best chance was in 1997 or 2001. He is yesterdays man.
Malcolm Rifkine is a good man, but not Leadership material, but it will go to see how he does against David Blunkett at Pensions.
The man I would love to see win is Alan Duncam(or Hunky Duncky as some of us in the party call him). He is very funny, a moderate, youngish (only in early 40`s), and would stand a excellent chance if he wasnt openly gay. It would be great for the party to choose Duncan, afterall the Party was the first to a have a Jewish Leader, and a women Leader and why not a openly gay Leader(exlcuding Ted Heath!!!!).
The party conference in Blackpool is going to be very interesting to say the least.

[minionofmidas]

The Party was the first to a have a Jewish Leader, and a women Leader and why not a openly gay Leader(exlcuding Ted Heath!!!!).

[Peter]

Looking at the possibilities, here's my list:

Likely to actually become Leader:

1. David Davies
2. Liam Fox
3. Tim Yeo
4. George Osborne

If they've got any sense, they'll pick a moderniser, so hopefully Yeo or Osborne. People keep saying Cameron, but he's very ugly frankly, and at least Osborne has some looks.

I don't like Liam Fox, so I hope he doesn't get it.

It'll be interesting to see who jumps ship if they go significantly one way or the other. Is there any chance of a UKIP MP via defection if they go for Yeo?

[Banana Republic]

1. David Davies

If they wanted Davis, why would they change the rules?